Free Agent at the End of the Season: Randy Wolf

As the Dodgers look forward towards the NLDS in a few weeks, there's little doubt about which pitcher will start Game 1: Randy Wolf. When the Dodgers signed Wolf last offseason, they envisioned Wolf becoming a solid backend of the rotation starting pitcher, who could throw some quality innings and take some of the pressure of the Dodgers' young pitchers. But as we've seen this season, Wolf has been much more than that for the Dodgers.

How will Wolf's stellar 2009 campaign help him on the free agent market? Let's have a look:

The Case for Randy Wolf

-Amazing 2009

I knew that Randy Wolf was having a very good 2009 season, but I had no idea just how good he was pitching this season until I looked at the numbers. Check it out:

6th in WHIP: 1.084
14th in ERA: 3.22
1st in BABIP: .256
2nd in quality starts: 24
7th in quality start %: 73%
11 wins (but Wolf should have closer to 17-18 if he could get some run support!)

The Case against Randy Wolf

-National League West

If you look at Wolf's splits from this season, you'll see a specific trend: Wolf dominates the NL West. Just look at his ERA this season against NL West foes:

Padres: 3.04
Diamondbacks: 3.71
Rockies: 2.79
Giants: 1.35

Those numbers make me believe that Wolf needs to stay in the weak NL West if he wants to maintain this level of success and question how he'd perform in a stronger division facing better offensive teams 10+ times each season.

-Is Randy Wolf THIS good?

Just throwing it out there. Randy Wolf has not had a season with a sub 4 ERA in any season since 2002. Does that mean anything? Maybe not. Wolf had a very good half season with the Astros and followed up on that success this season with the Dodgers.

But given his history, the odds are that Randy Wolf is a lot closer to the pitcher with a 4+ ERA than the pitcher with a sub 4 ERA.

Competition

Wolf's age makes him less appealing than Joel Pineiro, but his consistency and stellar 2009 campaign, you have to put him ahead of guys like Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis.

Elias Ranking: Type A

There is no doubt in my mind that the Dodgers will offer Wolf arbitration because of his solid 2009 performance and his relatively low 2009 salary ($5 million). I'm sire the Dodgers would be happy to have Wolf back for around $8-$10 million next season and if he doesn't return, then the Dodgers will get two draft picks as compensation.

Food for thought: will teams shy away from Wolf if the Dodgers offer him arbitration?

Prediction
(3 years/$31.5 million)

According to fangraphs, Wolf has been worth $14 million this season. Now there's no way Wolf is going to get that on the open market, but can Wolf get $10+ million per year on the open market? If the scenarios play out properly, then I could see it happening.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent Adjustments: Doug Davis

(For the last few weeks, I've been profiling some of the best free agents on the market this winter. At the end of each piece, I made a prediction regarding the type of contract the player could be in line to see. Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen thier value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look at the impending free agency of Doug Davis )

Initial Prediction: (3 years/$27 million)

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New Prediction: (3 years/$21 million)

What Changed: Randy Wolf. Yes after evaluating the free agency of Randy Wolf, I felt that there was no way in hell Davis was going to come close to 3 years/$27 million. That's the kind of contract that I'd expect Wolf to get in this market. Davis is a very good pitcher, and might wind up being a better value than Wolf over time, but Randy Wolf's 2009 season has catapulted him into a different level contractually than Davis. Davis will still do nicely on the free agent market, but I think my initial estimate overshot his true value a bit.

Thoughts?

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Detroit Tigers: One of the Best Teams Money Could Buy?

Are the Tigers one of the 10 best teams that money could buy? Jon Heyman think so:

10T. Detroit Tigers, $119 million. They've got a few high salaries (Magglio Ordonez at $18.9 million, for example), but they also have a formidable team. As evidenced by their liberal draft strategy, they are always willing to pay for untested talent. Rick Porcello's a great deal, even with him being close to the highest-paid rookie ever ($2.1 million).

It's amazing to me that the Tigers are in contention this season with the amount of high priced, under performing/possibly useless parts they have on their roster right now. Take a look:

Jeremy Bonderman (injured): $12.5 million
Nate Robertson: $7 million (worth $0 million this season according to fangraphs)
Dontrelle Willis (injured??): $10 million
Aubrey Huff: $2 million (worth -$2.7 million this season according to fangraphs)

That's $31.5 million right there. And that's not even taking into account two of the more controversial players on the Tigers' roster right now:

Magglio Ordonez: $18 million
Carlos Guillen: $10 million

A case can be made that both of these guys are egregiously overpaid.

Ordonez had a terrible first half of the season and there was even chatter that the Tigers were going to bench the slugger, but luckily for him (and the Tigers), Ordonez has turned it on in the second half and now resembles a half decent ballplayer even if his power is non existent.

Guillen is another story. He has missed lots of time this season because of injuries and has only played in 74 games. During that time, Guillen has only hit .258 with 11 HR and 48 RBI. Fangraphs says that Guillen has only been worth $3.4 million this season, which is a far cry from the double digit total he's currently earning.

So if you want to say that the Tigers are one of the best teams money can buy, so be it. But that statement makes little sense. The Tigers have at least $31.5 million this season committed to players, who are either injured or performing very, very badly. In addition, they have another $18 million committed to two stars, who are not coming close to performing like stars.

All together, the total amount of under performing stars, struggling veterans, and injured players is $59.5 million.

Still think the Tigers are one of the best teams money can buy? Think again.

Thoughts?

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Valuing Joel Pineiro

What kind of contract will Joel Pineiro get on the open market? The great Jon Heyman took a stab at that very question yesterday with this prediction:

"Pineiro, two years, $15 million."

This prediction is interesting to me because it's far lower than my prediction for Pineiro a week back of 4 years/$40 million. Either I really like Pineiro or Heyman really dislikes Pineiro. Or maybe the market just sucks.

But nevertheless, here's my reasoning for the 4 years/$40 million prediction:

1. he's young (just turned 31)

2. fantastic 2009 season

Does anyone realize just how good Pineiro has been this season? According to fangraphs:

-Pineiro has been worth $23.8 million this year
-5.3 WAR
-1st in BB/9 (1.1)
-1st in HR/9 (.3)
-1st in ground ball % (61.4%)
-3rd in line drive % (15.6%)
-9th in WHIP (1.13)
-15 wins

3. Pineiro is one of the best free agent pitchers on the market.

Seriously. Here is my top five:

1. John Lackey
2. Joel Pineiro
3. Randy Wolf
4. Rich Harden
5. Jason Marquis

It's hard to argue that Pineiro is not the second best pitcher on the market right now. He's one of the youngest quality free agent pitchers on the market and is coming off a season where he dominated the National League.

I know Pineiro's history isn't the greatest, but can anyone honestly see teams letting Pineiro get away signing a 2 year/$15 million dollar contract? I doubt it. If the market falls to the point where Pineiro is settling on 2 years/$15 million, then the other free agents in this class are going to have a very rough time.

Thoughts? What kind of deal will Pineiro receive?

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Free Agent Adjustments: Russell Branyan

(For the last few weeks, I've been profiling some of the best free agents on the market this winter. At the end of each piece, I made a prediction regarding the type of contract the player could be in line to see. Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen thier value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look at the impending free agency of Russell Branyan.)

Initial Prediction: (2 years/$15 million)

When I posted my original piece about Branyan on August 7th, Russell Branyan was on pace to put up some of the best power numbers of any hitter in the AL this season. After struggling for so many years, Branyan broke out in 2009 by hitting .260-24 HR-61 RBI-.361 OBP. Branyan had a legitimate chance to hit 40 home runs if he stayed healthy and productive through the end of September.

******** *********

New Prediction: (2 years/$10 million)

What Changed: Well, Branyan was unable to stay healthy and productive. In the second half of the season, Branyan hit just .193 with 9 HR and 27 RBI. To make matters worse, Branyan has been out since August 29th because of a herniated disk and it's doubtful that Branyan will play again this season. The second half raised lots of questions about Branyan: was the first half of the season just a fluke? Or was his second half so poor because he was injured?

Branyan still finished out the year with an impressive 31 home runs, but those questions coupled with his age and performance history, make me doubt that any team will give him $7 million per.

Thoughts?

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Luis Castillo Isn't This Bad, Right?

This little nugget in the most recent Heyman column caught my eye:

"Luis Castillo ($6.25 million) can hit for average and reach base, but this is a $1 million player, at best."

Just for the record Jon, fangraphs states that Castillo was worth $7.7 million dollars this season, which is essence would make him unpaid....but I digress....

Look, I hate Castillo's defense as much as the next guy and yes, we all know that Luis Castillo cannot hit for power. These limitations are painfully obvious. And again, we all know that Luis Castillo performance was embarrassing last year....to the point where he was benched for Ramon Martinez! But saying that Castillo is only a $1 million dollar player is wrong.

The reality is that Luis Castillo can STILL bring a lot to the table and be a productive force at the top of the lineup. Just take a look at some of his stats from this season:

-.311 batting average
- 76 runs scored
-.397 OBP
-68/55 strikeout to walk ratio

I believe in Luis Castillo. I believe that if the Mets lineup was completely in tact this year, than Castillo would have scored over 100 runs and would have been hailed as one of the dynamic catalysts for the Mets offense. However, the Mets offense has been absolutely brutal this year and unfortunately for a guy like Castillo, in order for him to get any significant credit for his performance, then the rest of the guys around him have to be healthy and productive at the dish.

But because the other key guys were all out for long periods of time this season (Delgado, Reyes, Beltran), Castillo's productive season doesn't look quite that good and as a result, people think that he's still one of the biggest busts in baseball. (I'll admit, the drop at Yankee Stadium sure didn't help)

Luis Castillo is not worth $6.25 million dollars or $1 million dollars. The truth is that his value lies somewhere in between those two numbers, probably at a range of $3-$4 million. So yeah, Luis Castillo is a little overpaid by those standards, but by no means is he THAT overpaid. If Castillo was a FA, would teams shell out $6 million+ for him? No. But at the same time, should the Mets be kicking themselves for signing Castillo for $6 million a year....no.

Not right now, at least. The Mets have bigger fish to fry moving forward.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Jason Marquis

After the 2006 season ended, the future of Jason Marquis seemed to be very much in doubt. Marquis was coming off the worst season of his career where he posted an embarrassing 6.02 for the Cardinals and even led the league in home runs allowed and earned runs allowed.

Luckily for Marquis, he became a free agent at the perfect time. Teams were desperate for pitching and the Cubs decided to take a chance on Marquis. A very expensive chance. The Cubs signed Marquis to a 3 year/$24 million dollar contract that baffled most of the baseball world.

For the first two years of that contract, Marquis was nothing more than a mediocre starting pitcher. But this year with the Rockies has been Marquis best performance since 2004.

The Case for Jason Marquis

-Ground Balls

A big reason why Jason Marquis has been so successful in Colorado this season is because of his incredible ground ball percentage. According to fangraphs, Marquis is third in all of baseball in ground ball percentage (55.2%). That stat alone tells you that Marquis can pitch effectively in a bandbox.

-Home Runs

Good luck hitting a home run against Jason Marquis. Sure, he's no Joel Pineiro (.31 HR/9), but Marquis has been incredible at keeping the ball in the ballpark this season despite pitching in Colorado. Marquis .66 HR/9 ratio puts him in the top 20 in baseball this season, which is an impressive feat with or without the humidor.

-Dependable!

Quality innings v. Quality innings? Who cares! In 5 of the past 6 seasons, Marquis has thrown at least 190 innings. Odds are high that when that fifth day rolls around, Marquis will be there to take the ball.

The Case against Jason Marquis

-Fluke?

In the three seasons prior to this one, Marquis put up the following ERAs:

2006-6.02
2007-4.60
2008-4.53

While I don't think Marquis is as bad as his 6.02 ERA in 2006 suggests, is he really as good as his 3.98 ERA in 2009 suggests? Or is this just a fluke season at the right time for Marquis?

-September

For the first four months of the season, there weren't many pitchers in baseball that were more consistent than Jason Marquis. However, in the month of September, Marquis has been terrible. His September ERA currently sits at 6.28, which is odd considering his strikeout rate is actually up this month. Nevertheless, Marquis has come back down to Earth in a big way.

Competition

I would say that Marquis is a notch or two below Joel Pineiro at this point, but can he compete with Doug Davis, Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Rich Harden, Braden Looper, and Jon Garland? I think so. And in many respects, you can make the case that Marquis is better than most of those guys.

Elias Ranking: Type B

After making almost $10 million this season, it's hard to see the Rockies offering Marquis arbitration. It's easy to see why they'd like to keep Marquis, but I have a tough time believing that the Rockies can afford to spend $12-$14 million+ on a above average pitcher.

Prediction
(3 years/$24 million)

I have to give Marquis the Adam Eaton kiss of death contract here: 3 years/$24 million. It's funny because those two pitchers have so much in common stylistically, but so little in common right now. A few months back, maybe Marquis is able to crack the $10+ million per year mark, but after his rough September, I think this amount is fair.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent Adjustments: Jim Thome

(For the last few weeks, I've been profiling some of the best free agents on the market this winter. At the end of each piece, I made a prediction regarding the type of contract the player could be in line to see. Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen thier value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look...starting with Jim Thome )

Initial Prediction: (1 year/$8.5 million)

When I posted my original piece about Thome on August 13th, Jim Thome had 21 home runs and seemed well on his way to hitting 30+ home runs and driving in at least 90 runs.

******** *********

New Prediction: (1 year/$6 million)

What Changed: On August 31st, Thome was traded from the White Sox to the Dodgers, who were in need of some pop of the bench. The trade to the Dodgers gave Thome a great shot at winning a title, but as a result, he hasn't come close to hitting 30-35 home runs. His stats currently sit at 24-77-.248-.367, which are nice, but worthy of $8.5 million next season? I don't think so.

Thoughts?

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Hypothetically Speaking: The Justin Verlander Contract Extension?

After a strangely inconsistent 2008, Justin Verlander has regained his form and established himself as one of the top pitchers in baseball. In the much tougher American League, Verlander has put together a tremendous, and at times dominant, season. He is 17-9 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and most impressive of all: 256 K in 217 IP.

Verlander has become the ace that everyone thought he'd become. I'd like to tell you that I'm surprised, but Verlander's stuff is so good that I expected him to become an true ace.

However, Verlander's contract situation is an issue that the Tigers will have to address sooner rather than later. Verlander has two years of arbitration left after this season and will become a free agent after the 2012 season. He is due a big raise from the $3.675 million that he earned this season because his performance has been so good.

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that the Tigers approach Verlander about a possible contract extension. Sure their attendance is down and the team lacks significant payroll flexibility this offseason (thanks Dontrelle, Nate Robertson, Bonderman, and Magglio), but GM Dave Dombrowski understands just how important Verlander is to this franchise and wants to avoid the hassle of arbitration and lock up his ace.

Now that we've established that, what kind of contract (years and dollars) do you think would be fair here?

My guess: 4 years/$60 million
Here's why it works for the Tigers:
1. Tigers buy out Verlander's two years of arbitration (yay!)
2. Tigers buy out two years of Verlander's free agency and keep him until at least 2012
3. Verlander will easily get $7-$8 million in 2010 after arbitration...this deal would only increase the Tigers 2010 payroll by $7 million (roughly), which would leave plenty of room for the front office to address the Tigers' other issues.

Here's why it works for Verlander:
1. He would be paid in the same range as many other top starting pitchers
2. Huge raise in 2010....this deal would probably pay him more than he would have earned in arbitration in 2011.
3. He doesn't have to wait to get a huge raise
4. Verlander can still become a free agent after 2013, when he'll be just 30.

Thoughts?

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Hypothetically Speaking: The Dan Haren Contract Extension

Last August, the Diamondbacks signed Dan Haren to a very team friendly 4 year/$44 million dollar extension that replaced the final two years of his previous contract. By all accounts, Haren was willing to take less than he might have warranted on the open market because he loved Arizona and being with the Diamondbacks.

But now as the 2009 season comes to a close, Haren's contract extension is looking like even more of a steal for the Diamondbacks. Haren, 29, is putting up the best numbers of his career with the Diamondbacks this season (14-9, 2.90 ERA, leading the NL in K/BB ratio and WHIP) and has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the National League.

So hypothetically speaking, how much larger would Haren's contract with the Diamondbacks have been if he waited until this summer to negotiate a contract extension? Instead of $44 million over 4 years, how much more could Haren have earned? $20 million? $30 million? Or even more?

Would $80 million over 6 years have been unrealistic?

My guess is no. Not only would Haren have had more leverage in negotiations (FA after 2010), but he would be coming off the best season of his career at 29 years old.

Please leave your predictions/thoughts in the comments.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Doug Davis

I'm a huge fan of Doug Davis. There is no way that Davis should be considered an ace or even a front line starting pitcher because his stuff is simply not that dominant. However, Davis is your classic middle of the rotation starter, who gets the job done and is about as consistent as they come. While Davis might not be the first choice for many teams, he's exactly the kind of pitcher that so many teams need.

How will Davis' limitations and consistency play out on the open market? Let's take a look:

The Case for Doug Davis

-quality

I know the quality start is not the best judge of a pitcher's performance, but what Doug Davis has done over the years is pretty amazing.

2009: 21 quality starts, 66%
2008: 14 quality starts, 54% (injured)
2007: 19 quality starts, 58%
2006: 16 quality starts, 47%
2005: 23 quality starts, 66%
2004: 24 quality starts, 71%

As much as I like Doug Davis, I never actually realized how consistent he has been over the past six years. That's the kind of consistency that so many teams would love to have at the back end of their rotation.

-Consistent

In five of the past six seasons, Doug Davis has recorded at least 30 starts with the lone exception being 2008 when Davis had to take time off to deal with thyroid cancer. Teams will pay for that kind of consistency.

The Case against Doug Davis

-WHIP

One negative about Davis is that he puts lots of runners on base. His lifetime WHIP sits at 1.491 while his 2009 WHIP is 1.495, which puts him 45th in the National League this season.

-Walks

Doug Davis is not known as a control pitcher, but it has to be concerning to see that Davis currently leads the NL in walks (96).

Competition

The market for quality left handed starting pitchers this offseason is quite weak.

-Jarrod Washburn? Old and injured.
-Erik Bedard? Injury prone.
-Randy Johnson? Old and injured.
-Andy Pettitte? Does anyone really think he'll hit the open market?

So pretty much by default, Doug Davis has become one of the premier left handed starting pitchers on the open market (other than Randy Wolf).

Elias Ranking: Type B

I don't think there is enough upside here for the Diamondbacks to offer Davis arbitration. Davis earned $8.75 million and if he accepts arbitration, then he will definitely be looking for a nice raise. Davis is a nice player, but he is certainly not worth $11-$13 million that the Diamondbacks would have to pay him. Also, since Davis is a type B FA, the Diamondbacks wouldn't even get two high draft picks for offering him arbitration.

Prediction
(3 years/$21 million)

Doug Davis is going to surprise some people on the open market. He's a guy that's been overlooked for a majority of his career, but I'm confident when I say that Davis will get paid this offseason. According to fangraphs, Davis has been worth $7.7 million this season, but in the five year previous, Davis was worth between $9-$14 million dollars. My guess is that his price range falls much closer to $9 million than $14 million.

Thoughts?

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2009 Mets: A Blessing In Disguise?

When I think about how baldy the Mets 2009 season has been, I cringe. I can't help but think what could've been, even though I know that this season was doomed from the start. This team was not well constructed and the rash of injuries, no matter how severe they were, highlighted the Mets' shortcomings.

And yes, there were many problems with the Mets that we could focus on today:

-the Mets lack of depth
-inability to produce quality players in the minors, who could step in right away
-dependency on old players
-inability to find proper players to supplement the Mets' core
-all those injuries!

But as the Mets move forward, there's one problem are in particular that the Mets need to address before the 2010 season: the starting pitching. And for the first time in years, I'm actually confident that the Mets will make a move to acquire another top flight starting pitcher.

Why do I think this? Well, because the 2009 season left the Mets with more questions than answers regarding the guys that they currently have after Johan Santana. Each one of these guys was given the chance to step up and be the Mets #2 starter, but no one did.

-Mike Pelfrey: Came into the 2009 season as the Mets #2 starter....5.08 ERA this year...can he become the pitcher everyone expects him to be?....HUGE STEP BACK

-Oliver Perez: Came into the 2009 season as the Mets best left handed starting pitcher not named Johan Santana....6.82 ERA this year...dealt with a variety of injuries...INCONSISTENT

-John Maine: Came into the 2009 season as one of the Mets top starting pitchers...4.13 ERA this year, but dealt with a number of injuries and missed significant time...throws too many pitches and almost never lasts more than 5 or 6 innings

Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine were supposed to anchor the rotation after Johan Santana, but none of those guys showed anything this season for me to believe that the Mets should trust any of them to be the #2 starter. That realization could be a blessing in disguise for the Mets.

Think about it: if the Mets go into the offseason with the mindset that Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine are nothing more than 3, 4, and 5 starters; then there should be a very realistic chance that the Mets make a huge run at a big name pitcher. It comes down to being realistic: the Mets can longer depend on any of these three to be the guy behind Johan Santana in 2010. None of them has proven it consistently in the big leagues.

Having another top flight starter to pair with Johan Santana would help jump start the Mets from 2009's laughing stock to contenders in 2010. And who knows, maybe Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez finally make the leap in 2010 and become the pitchers that baseball people think they could be. But the 2009 season has made it very clear, the Mets cannot afford to not go after a top flight starter this offseason.

And for Mets fans everywhere, this is a good thing.


Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Erik Bedard

The fall has been quite steep for Erik Bedard. When Bedard arrived in Seattle two years ago, he was hailed as the Mariners newest ace and the guy, who would team with Felix Hernandez to give the Mariners one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. The Mariners were willing to give up Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, and George Sherrill for Bedard even though they knew that Bedard was going to be a free agent after the 2009 season.

But now as Bedard plans to explore the free agent market for the first time, he will not be greeted by the lavish multi year contracts that the best pitchers are met with. And the reality is this: when Bedard is actually playing, he IS one of the best pitchers in baseball. But unfortunately for Bedard, the past two seasons have been riddled with injuries and as a result, he is too much of a liability right now for teams to commit to him long term.

What will the market hold for Bedard? Let's take a look:

The Case for Bedard

-Quality left handed starting pitcher

When Bedard is actually on the field, he's one of the best left handed starting pitchers in baseball. In 15 starts this season, Bedard struck out 90 in 83 innings, had a tremendous 2.82 ERA, and produced a 1.19 WHIP. In addition, who wouldn't want a starting pitcher with a K/9 rate of 9.8!

In addition, since 2006 Bedard's ERA has never exceeded 4 and his over the course of his career, Batters have only hit .247 against Bedard.

The Case against Bedard

-Injuries

Can Bedard actually stay healthy? That's the big question. Bedard has only started 30 games in the past two seasons and needs to prove to teams that he can stay healthy and productive for a full season.

Good teammate?

There have been numerous stories written about Bedard over the years stating that he's a quiet guy and somewhat of a strange dude. I don't really put too much stock into this, but we'll see if Bedard's reputation effects whether or not certain teams go after him.

Competition

-Because of Bedard's injury history over the past two seasons, there is no way that he should garner anything more than a one year deal with incentives. As a result, Bedard will be competing on the market with other pitchers with a history of injuries and performing well: Justin Duchscherer, Kelvim Escobar, Brett Myers, Jason Schmidt, etc.

The major advantage that Bedard has over the rest of those guys is that he's a left handed starting pitcher. In addition, I'd say that Bedard has more upside than the rest of the guys I listed.

Elias Ranking: Type B

-There's no way that the Mariners will offer Bedard arbitration. Bedard earned $7.75 million in 2009 and there would simply be too much risk in paying Bedard that much money when you take his injury history into account.

Prediction
(1 year/$7 million) with incentives

Here are some comparable contracts:
Brad Penny (1 year/$5 million)
Jon Garland (1 year/$7 million)
John Smoltz (1 year/$5.5 million)

Thoughts?

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What the Hell Were You Thinking? Milton Bradley Edition

I'm sure there are a large and very vocal majority of Cubs fans that are trying to figure out how exactly the Cubs gave $30 million bucks to Milton Bradley. Didn't they know that Bradley was a nut job? Or how about his injury history? Did Hendry really believe that Milton Bradley could fit in with the Cubs?

Well, after some archive digging, I think whatever rationale the Cubs had at the time, no matter how illogical or stupid it looks now, will come to light.

Why Sign Bradley: So much has been made that the Cubs signed Bradley because he led the AL in OPS in 2008 and the Cubs needed help from the left side of the dish. All of that is true. A healthy and productive Bradley would have made the Cubs 2009 lineup one of the best in baseball on paper.

But what so many people are forgetting about Bradley is that the Cubs really thought that Bradley was a changed man and would fit in very well in Chicago. Take a look at some of these quotes:

cubs.com: (January 8, 2009):"As we left the restaurant and stood on the curb waiting for the driver ... [Bradley] said, 'I know it's going to take some time and you have some work to do, but I want to be a Chicago Cub if you want me,'" Hendry said.

"I knew when I left that restaurant that night that he was our guy."

cubs.com: (January 8, 2009): "The opinion that he wouldn't be a good teammate or he would be a disruption in the clubhouse couldn't be further from the truth," Hendry said.

MLB.com (January 9, 2009): "He's at a point in his life now where I think he's got it together real good," Hendry said.

Chicago Sun Times: (April 15, 2009): ''I think the fans are going to love him, too,'' Hendry said. ''I don't know why race would ever come into it. He's no different than the rest of us. We've all made a few mistakes in our day and certainly when we were younger. But so many people he played with and played for the last couple years [spoke well of him]. I've felt very comfortable with him coming in here all along.''

WIFR (January 16, 2009): Piniella brushed off any concerns about Bradley's past, and Bradley says he thinks he and Piniella will "click well."

********** **********

Hell, even Bradley himself was optimistic about finally having some long term security and playing in Chicago.

MLB.com: (February 15, 2009):"It's the Cubs -- who wouldn't want to play for the Cubs?" Bradley said. "They already have a great team in place. I'm coming in, trying to add something to that. They haven't won in 100 years. You come in and you know you have that, I guess you call it 'pressure' -- that's the media word, 'pressure' -- it's not really like that.

"I just want to be on a team that's going to win. That's all I want to do. Playing at home [stinks] if you're not winning. The Cubs, there's a good team here and we're going to win. I want to be a part of that."

Chicago Sun Times: (April 15, 2009):''I can be like that guy that you watch all the time for whatever reason,'' he said, referring to his track record of angry outbursts and run-ins. ''But I really think I've outgrown it, a lot of the stuff that I did when I was younger.''

Chicago Tribune (January 18, 2009): "I have every intention of being here a long time. This is where I wanted to be a long time. I've had it on my radar, so I have no intention of going anywhere."

Chicago Tribune (February 16, 2009): "As much as we courted him, I've never seen a player court us like he did," Cubs Chairman Crane Kenney told fans at the Cubs Convention. "He was scouting us in the third game of the division series, sitting in Los Angeles trying to figure out where he would play in our lineup, and he left himself, basically, with no escape clause.

"He was negotiating with us and really didn't have a safety net. This is a guy who chose Chicago and the pressure and the limelight. I don't think he expects to fail. He wants to be a Cub."

********* ***********

And for those Cubs fans that think the Bradley signing was some crazy idea that GM Jim Hendry just suddenly acted on, think again.

ESPN.com (January 6, 2009): General manager Jim Hendry talked to former GMs, managers and players who've associated with Bradley over the years.

"What I found out was the perception of him not being a positive in the clubhouse couldn't have been farther from the truth," Hendry said.

SI.com (March 6, 2009): Hendry was eyeing Bradley from a distance for quite a while, and Bradley was impressed by the GM's forthrightness. Hendry told him right away that he was their guy, but that he had to clear up a couple questions related to the ownership change before making an offer. Just like Hendry said, once those questions were cleared up, he called Bradley.

"Jim Hendry's an honest, fair guy," Bradley said. "You don't meet too many like that in this business. He told me it would take some time with the ownership situation but that we'd get it done. I believed him.''

Daily Herald (January 17 2009): "Speaking of assuming," Hendry began, "I think you've assumed in that question that he's not good in the clubhouse. We knew we needed a left-handed hitter by the first week of October, and if you noticed, we didn't sign Milton until the first week of January. So there was a heck of a lot of work done, a lot of information gathering, a lot of medical testing, a lot of discussion with a lot of his ex-teammates from every club, managers, general managers.

********* *************

So it seems as though the Cubs tried to do everything they could to ensure that the Milton Bradley experiment would not fail. GM Jim Hendry took his time with the process in order to get as many different opinions as possible. What's amazing to me is that everyone in the Cubs organization thought that this would work-or simply just talked themselves into saying that.

Either way, the Milton Bradley experiment in Chicago has been a huge fail.

Thoughts?

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Where's Derek Lowe?

I'd like to have a word or two with Ted Keith. Not only did he put Ryan Dempster on the list of worst free agent contracts, but more surprisingly, he did not put Derek Lowe on his list.

How is this possible? Just look at the stats:

-Lowe is now 36 years old
-signed a 4 year/$60 million contract with the Braves last offseason
-still has another 3 years/$45 million left on the deal
-his ERA went up more than a full point this year (3.24 to 4.55)
-his WHIP is way up from 2008 (1.13 to 1.49)
-H/9 is way up this year (8.3 to 10.6)
-strikeouts are way down (99 this season)
-K/BB is way down (1.77)
-hitters are hitting .295 against him this season
-His % of ground balls is at its lowest point in over seven years (56.5%)

So as you can see, it's not hard to look at Lowe's stats and say that the 2009 season has been a major disappointment for him. But for some reason, Keith still keeps him off the list? Was it a mistake? Simply an oversight?

Who knows.

The only way I can see someone rationalizing this is by saying, "Derek Lowe has 15 wins this season so there's no way you can say that Lowe was one of the worst free agent contracts."

But as we can see from the stats, Derek Lowe's season cannot simply be defined by wins and losses. Across the board, Lowe's performance has been down this season. The wins argument is hogwash.


Thoughts?

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Ryan Dempster: One of the Worst Free Agent Signings?

SI.com's Ted Keith recently outlined "the worst" free agent signings of the 2008 offseason, most of which were not surprising. Oliver Perez and Milton Bradley have been two of the biggest disappointments in baseball. Edgar Renteria and Pat Burrell have shown very little at the dish this season.

But there was one name that I was shocked to see in the "worst" column: Ryan Dempster.

"A career year in 2008 that included personal bests in wins, ERA and WHIP earned Dempster a sizable raise from the three-year, $15.5 million deal that expired last year. But so far he hasn't exactly justified that raise, regressing to a 10-8 mark with a 3.72 ERA. In fact, his numbers are down across the board. He's given up more hits, runs and home runs than he did a year ago, with a worse WHIP and fewer strikeouts per nine innings. He hasn't been terrible, but the Cubs were clearly expecting more this year from a pitcher who signed the fourth-highest contract of any free-agent starter last winter. With his salary increasing each of the next three years and with a $14 million player option for 2012, the Cubs can only hope that Dempster will soon resemble the pitcher who earned that large deal in the first place."

While it's safe to say that Dempster has not been worth the big bucks the Cubs doled out to him this season, I can't help, but think that Dempster's inclusion on this list is unfair. Outside of a poor April and a injury plagued July, Dempster has been one of the Cubs' best starting pitchers this season. And while Keith notes that his numbers across the board are down, Dempster's drop has not been drastic:

WHIP: (2008: 1.21 ) (2009: 1.34)
K/9: (2008: 8.14 ) (2009: 7.54)
ERA: (2008: 2.96) (2009: 3.72)

In addition, when you factor in that Dempster's BB/9 rate has actually improved (3.31 to 3.07), and that his K/BB rate has remained the same (2.46), you get a better picture into the 2009 Ryan Dempster. Dempster is still a very, very good pitcher.

So is it safe to put Dempster on this list? I don't think so. Fangraphs even states that his performance this season was worth $13.7 million, which would actually make him underpaid (Dempster earned $8 million this year). Sure, his performance wasn't the same as it was in 2008, but the Cubs have reasons to believe that Dempster will perform better in 2010.


Thoughts?

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The Market for Joe Crede?

Yet another tough break for free agent to be Joe Crede, who will undergo yet another back surgery this offseason:

"Crede, out for the season, said the procedure by Dr. Andrew Dossett, a Dallas orthopedist, will remove fluid from a herniated disk that is impeding on a nerve. Crede expects to have the operation Friday. The date will be finalized Monday.

"It's something I have to do if I want to get back out there," Crede said before Sunday's game against Detroit.

Recovery time is about two months.

The 31-year-old Crede has had two major operations in the past two years, the last in October. He played in only 144 games with 502 at-bats from 2007-08."

At this stage in his career, he's a risk because of his back issues and cannot be counted on to be a starting third baseman. In addition, even though Crede was an all-star in 2007, you can certainly say that Crede has not put together a quality season at the dish since 2006.

You have to wonder what kind of market Crede will have this winter once he become a free agent. The market is not exactly favorable to Crede. There is a number of decent third basemen out there, who come with less question marks than Crede and have been more productive over the past three years (Figgins, Feliz, Beltre, Mora, and possibly Tejada). Crede could have a tough time finding considerable playing time in this market given the number of possible options on the open market.

I feel sorry for Joe Crede. Here was a guy who was one of the best third basemen in baseball in 2006 and was all set to cash in once he became a free agent in 2008, but because of injuries, he has not come close to achieving his full potential-both on the field and in his wallet.


Thoughts?

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The Market for Milton Bradley

Oh, Milton. Here we go again. More drama.

And this time, it's serious. Bradley has been suspended for the remainder of the season a la Jose Guillen a few years back (minus the playoffs). Not good.

"The last few days became too much for me to tolerate," Hendry said. "I'm certainly not going to let our great fans become an excuse. I'm not going to tolerate not being able to answer questions from the media respectfully. Whether you feel like talking or not, it's part of all of our jobs.

"There's a right way to do it and a wrong way. I'm not going to allow disrespect to other people in that locker room and uniformed personnel, and I'm certainly not going to let a player, as was mentioned in the article today, (talk about) negativity of the organization."

It's become obvious that Bradley simply cannot return to the Cubs in 2010. Bradley has burned too many bridges within the organization. Change in needed for both sides. So as we look forward towards 2010, what exactly does the future hold for Bradley? Let's start by answering a few key questions.

********* ************

1. Is there any team out there that would pick up the $21 million that the Cubs still owe Bradley?

Believe it or not, this is possible. All the Cubs would have to do is take on a contract that is more egregious than Bradley's, which is not an easy thing to do. Unless the Cubs want to take on one of the worst contracts in baseball (i.e Carlos Silva, Oliver Perez), then the Cubs' best chance to trade Bradley is to accept the fact that they will have to eat some of his salary.

2. What team would be willing to acquire Milton Bradley and all the nonsense that comes with him?

Even though Bradley is crazy, I'm sure that some team would be willing to take a chance on Bradley because when he's healthy and sane, Bradley is a very productive outfielder.

With that said, Bradley's terrible behavior and below average performance with the Cubs, I'm sure there aren't too many teams out there looking to pick up Bradley.

3. What team can give Bradley the "positive environment" he's looking for?

Obviously the Milton Bradley experiment in Chicago failed miserably. Chicago and Milton Bradley just did not mix.

So where does Milton Bradley think he needs to play in 2010?

"I need a stable, healthy, enjoyable environment. There's too many people everywhere in your face with a microphone asking the same questions repeatedly. Everyone is just bashing you. You go out there and play harder than anybody on the field and never get credit for it. It's just negativity."

So Bradley wants a healthy and enjoyable environment where there aren't too many people getting all up in his business. Wonderful. In my opinion, Bradley needs to go somewhere in a small market where the bright lights simply don't exist. As we saw in Chicago, the big city and Milton Bradley don't mix well.

Now let's get to the hard part, which "small market" team would actually take a chance on Milton Bradley?

-Padres? Nope. Been there and done that.

-Pirates? Nope. Do you think a young team looking to rebuild needs Milton Bradley around?

-Orioles: Doubtful. Even though Andy McPhail is looking for someone to hit behind Nick Markakis, I just don't think the O's have room for Bradley, unless they plan to have him DH. Any once again, do you think a young team looking to rebuild needs Milton Bradley around?

-Royals? Nope. Even though I wouldn't run it past Dayton Moore to make Bradley to KC possible, he's just not a fit here at all. I must say though, a locker room consisting of Milton Bradley, Kyle Farnsworth, and Jose Guillen would be highly entertaining and probably give Trey Hillman ulcers by the end of the season.

-Diamondbacks? Hmmmm, interesting. The Diamondbacks could use another big bat in their lineup and Eric Byrnes isn't exactly the world's most productive left fielder. I'd prefer to see the Diamondbacks still with their youth movement instead of investing energy into acquiring Bradley, but the thought isn't that horrible.

-Mariners? I know, Seattle is not exactly a small market. But it's hard to ignore the face that Milton Bradley would be a decent fit with the Mariners. I'm very fearful to see how Bradley would react in Seattle, but this could be a spot for him to succeed. The Mariners could use Bradley in left field and when his various injuries act up, the Mariners could slot him in as the designated hitter. This team has struggled all year to find potent hitters in the middle of the lineup and maybe, just maybe, Bradley could give the Mariners what their looking for.


Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Joel Pineiro

It's a good time to be Joel Pineiro. After muddling around in the land of mediocrity for the past five years, Pineiro's 2009 season has been a revelation. Seemingly out of nowhere, Pineiro has catapulted himself from an average starting pitcher to the productive and sometimes dominant starter that so many envisioned him becoming when he began his career in Seattle.

And Pineiro's timing could not have been better. He will be a free agent after the season and has put himself in a prime position for the big money that comes with free agency.

How will Pineiro's fantastic 2009 season help him on the open market? Let's take a look:

The Case for Pineiro

-The New Joel Pineiro

Pineiro's stellar 2009 season is not by accident or merely some mistake. Pineiro's success this season has been based on a number of factors:

1. Throwing more fastballs (71.1% fastballs)
2. Lower BB rate (1.06)
3. Higher BB/K rate (4.17)
4. Lots and lots of ground balls (2.66 GB/FB, 61.2% GB)
5. No home runs (only 7 allowed this year)

Pineiro will never be mistaken as a high strikeout pitcher, but the blueprint for his success is there: lots of ground balls, impeccable control, no walks, and keeping the ball in yard.

-Age

Pineiro is only turning 31 in September, which means that in theory, his prime years should be ahead of him.

The Case against Pineiro

-Fluke?

Was Pineiro's 2009 season a fluke? Only time will tell for sure, but this question has to be asked. We've seen pitchers have big years right before they hit free agency, get the big money, and then revert back to the form that made them just average. Joel Pineiro has not pitched this well since 2003 so the doubts and questions are going to be present.

Competition

Pineiro is not in the class of John Lackey, which means that he will be competing with the other second tier starting pitchers: Jason Marquis, Doug Davis, Brett Myers, Rich Harden, Jon Garland, Jarrod Washburn, etc. Is Joel Pineiro a better option that any of those guys? Given his age and tremendous performance...probably (even with the risk involved in signing him). But I wouldn't expect him to get a whole lot more than any of them, but I expect his contract to exceed every other starting pitcher on the market outside of Lackey.

Elias Ranking: Type B

-I'm sure the Cardinals are hoping that Pineiro becomes a type A by the end of the season, but even if he does not, I'd expect the Cardinals to offer him arbitration (if it makes sense to them financially). Pineiro only made $7.5 million this season, so even if Pineiro accepts, he wouldn't be in line for an absurd raise. I could see the Cardinals refusing to offer Pineiro arbitration if they have no intention of paying him the $10+ million it will take to keep him.

Prediction

(4 years/$40 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:
Kyle Lohse (4 years/$41 million)
Oliver Perez (3 years/$36 million)
Gil Meche (5 years/$55 million)
Ryan Dempster (4 years/$52 million)

I would be very, very hesitant to give Pineiro 4 years+, but I fully expect some team do so. Teams have shown the willingness over the years to overpay for quality starting pitchers, especially young starting pitchers coming off a big season. Pineiro fits that description perfectly.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: John Lackey

There's no doubt that John Lackey is the big name starting pitcher on this year's free agent market. Lackey is the only guy available, who can be legitimately counted on to lead a starting staff and be a #1 starter.

However, there's considerable risk with John Lackey. In each of the past two seasons, Lackey has missed significant time because of injuries. That fact has to be very concerning.

So I look at John Lackey's free agency like this: it will be a struggle between two sides. One side will see John Lackey the ace, who is the only legit #1 starter on this year's market, while the other side will see risk and a bad contract waiting to happen.

How will this struggle play out on the free agent market? Let's take a look:

The Case for Lackey

-Consistent

Over the past 5 seasons, Lackey has never produced an ERA greater than 4. In each season since 2006, Lackey's WHIP has ranged from 1.21 to 1.26. In addition, Lackey's K/9 (an impressive 7.2) has remained the same in each season since 2007 and his BB/9 during the same time frame has ranged from 2.1 to 2.4. And most importantly (by team standards), Lackey has won more than 10 games in every season since 2003.

-Studly

It's worth repeating: is there another pitcher on this market that you would feel comfortable shelling out $12-$15 annually for?


John Lackey=Mr. Consistency

The Case against Lackey

-Injuries

This is where teams need to be concerned. In each of the past two seasons, Lackey has started the year on the DL with various arm issues (tricep, elbow). Sure, Lackey has made it back to the Angels both years and his performance has not taken a hit, but the threat of more arm injuries has to make teams think twice about investing in Lackey.

-He Ain't No CC

John Lackey is a very, very good pitcher. At times, Lackey is a great pitcher. He has the potential to be dominant. But make no mistake about it, John Lackey is nowhere close to CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, or any of the other GREAT pitchers in baseball. Lackey is not too far behind those guys, but make no mistake about it, Lackey is behind.

And just for the record I'd rather have Lackey take the ball every fifth day for me than AJ Burnett.

Competition

As I stated before, there's no one on the free agent market that's in Lackey's league. The real competition could come from the trade market if big names like Roy Halladay and Carlos Zambrano hit the trading block.

Elias Ranking: Type A

In my opinion, there's no reason for the Angels not to offer Lackey arbitration. He only earned $9 million this season and if the Angels can keep Lackey around next year without a long term deal for $14-$15 million, I'd say that's reasonable. And if Lackey gets a big contract elsewhere, then the Angels would get two high draft picks in return. A win-win situation.

Prediction
(5 years/$80 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:
Oliver Perez (3 years/$36 million)
Derek Lowe (4 years/$60 million)
Carlos Zambrano (5 years/$91 million)
AJ Burnett (5 years/$82.5 million)

The AJ Burnett contract would be a great for Lackey's agent to use as a basis of negotiation. Sure Burnett's stuff might be better, but Lackey is more consistent. Lackey's injury history makes him less attractive in my opinion, but considering that he's the best option out there on the market, he's bound to get $14-$16 million a season from somewhere.

Thoughts?

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Why Can't the Mariners Sign Felix Hernandez?

This little nugget about Felix Hernandez caught my eye:

"Felix will be an affordable, young, dynamic budding superstar of a pitcher in 2010. And his home is at the moment unknown. The Mariners don't have the talent to contend against the Angels in the AL West, and it appears that they'd rather trade Felix now, while they can still get a boatload of young talent for him, rather than wait for him to become a free agent and skip town."

For the life of me, I cannot understand why the Mariners would want to trade Felix Hernandez now or anytime in the near future. As the author noted, Felix Hernandez is cheap, young, and a dynamic starting pitcher. While he's under the Mariners control, they should be building around him, not looking to blow the whole thing up.

And further, why can't the Mariners sign Felix Hernandez to an extension or even re-sign him once he reaches free agency? The Mariners are not a financially strapped organization. They are not the Rays, Marlins, or Twins. In fact, their $98 million dollar payroll this year and $117 million dollar payroll last year actually suggests that the Mariners are much closer to the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of payroll.

So why does everyone assume that Felix is simply just going to leave the Mariners? Sure, any deal with Felix Hernandez (like Tim Lincecum) is going to have to be outside the box and unique because a player of Hernandez's ability and age only comes around once in a generation, but the Mariners have funds to spend. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Mariners only have $41 million dollars committed next season as the contracts of Adrian Beltre, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, and Erik Bedard come off the books.

That's why I can't understand why everyone is thinking solely about trading Felix Hernandez. Considering how much money they have coming off the books this season, NOW would be the time to discuss a contract extension with Hernandez.

I hope the Mariners hold on to Felix Hernandez for the foreseeable future for two reasons:

1. Seattle doesn't deserve to watch another prized talent skip town
2. There is no way the Mariners would receive equal value for Felix Hernandez.

I'll end with one word:

extension.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Hideki Matsui

As Hideki Matsui looks towards his impending free agency, he's got to feel good about things. He's proven to the baseball world once again that he is one of the premier hitters in the American League and despite all the talk of injuries, age, and decline; Matsui can still rake with the best of them and should be in line for a nice contract.

How will Matsui's tremendous 2009 season translate on the free agent market? Let's take a look:

The Case for Matsui

-Productive hitter

When Matsui is healthy and able to play, there's no doubt that he can hit. This season, Matsui has put up some big numbers in the heart of the Yankees lineup: .280, 25 HR, 85 RBI, .370 OBP, .886 OPS. And those numbers don't even tell just how good Matsui has been this season: he's been equally productive against lefties and righties (.276 v. .281) and has been great with runners in scoring position (.313, 8 HR).

Sure Matsui is getting up their in age (he's 35), but his numbers at the dish have not taken a drastic decline, even though his health has been shaky. That has to be a positive for American League teams looking to add some power to the middle of their lineup.

The Case against Matsui

-He can't play defense

Because of injuries and age, the Yankees have not counted on Matsui to do anything other than DH this season. It remains to be seen if Matsui can actually play the outfield in the future, but whatever team signs him will have to deal with the limited flexibility that comes with Matsui.

-injuries

In both 2006 and 2008, Matsui failed to play at least 100 games because of injuries. Even though Matsui has been productive this season, there has been constant chatter about the health of Matsui's knee and as we mentioned before, Matsui has not played the outfield at all this season. At this point in his career, Matsui might be relegated to being a full time DH just to keep him on the field and away from the disabled list.

Competition

At this point in his career, I don't think we can count on Matsui to play the outfield in the near future. So for argument's sake, we'll assume that teams will view Matsui solely as a DH. Mastui's chief competition this offseason will be other aging players, who can still be productive hitters: Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Aubrey Huff, etc.

Elias Ranking: Type B

Absolutely no way that the Yankees offer Matsui arbitration. Paying $15+ is way too much for a guy, who can't play the outfield and limits their flexibility.

Prediction
(2 years/$16 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:
Pat Burrell (2 years/$16 million)
Raul Ibanez (3 years/$31.5 million)
Adam Dunn (2 years/$20 million)

If Matsui stays healthy, then I have no doubt that he can remain a productive power hitter. But with that said, I'd be very hesitant to give Mastui anything more than a 2 year deal at this point given his age and injury history.

Thoughts?

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Carlos Zambrano Hypothetical Trade #3

So after scouring Cot's Baseball Contracts, we have come up with a number of hypothetical trades for the Cubs and Zambrano this offseason that might, or might not, make sense.

Cubs acquire: Francisco Cordero

Reds acquire: Carlos Zambrano

****** *********

Why this makes sense for the Cubs

-Cordero is one of the elite closers in baseball coming off a fantastic 2009 season

-Adding Cordero to the Cubs' bullpen would give them one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball at the end of the game (Cordero-Marmol).

-Cordero is only signed for the next two seasons

Why this makes sense for the Reds

-The Reds need a front line starter to team with Cueto and eventually, Edinson Volquez. Zambrano fits this mold nicely.

-Zambrano can fill the huge void left by Edinson Volquez, who will most of 2010 because of Tommy John surgery.

-Can they sign anyone better? Free agent starting pitchers aren't exactly clamoring to sign with the Reds...besides Eric Milton.

Why this makes no sense for the Cubs

-Do you really want to trade Zambrano inside the division?

-Cordero's falling strikeout rate has to be concerning, even though he's put up great numbers this season.

-Cordero is overpaid. How comfortable do the Cubs feel paying their closer $12 million a season?

Why this makes no sense for the Reds

-Are they in a position financially to take on Zambrano's contract?

-There is still much work to be done in Cincinnati. Zambrano is a very nice player to have around, but by no means can he be considered the final piece of the puzzle. This team needs more than Zambrano in order to compete in 2010 and beyond.

Bottom Line: Now here's a trade that actually makes sense. The Cubs get the big time closer that they NEED while getting rid of the Carlos Zambrano nonsense, while the Reds add a big time pitcher with a big time arm. This deal would set the Cubs up VERY nicely in 2010 and 2011 and the Reds could have a potentially dominant, young starting staff led by Zambrano, Cueto, and Volquez (once he returns).

Not too shabby, eh?


Thoughts?

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Carlos Zambrano Hypothetical Trade #2 (stupid, no?)

So after scouring Cot's Baseball Contracts, we have come up with a number of hypothetical trades for the Cubs and Zambrano this offseason that might, or might not, make sense.

Cubs acquire: Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, Prospects

Mets acquire: Carlos Zambrano, Aaron Miles

****** *********

Why this makes sense for the Cubs

-Castillo and Perez are only signed through 2011, which will save the Cubs money in the long run

-Castillo put up great numbers this season with the Mets with a .310 batting average and a .400 OBP. He would solve the Cubs' 2B nicely and give the Cubs immediate production at the top of the order.

-Perez was miserable this season, but he still has tons of potential. Yes Perez is a headcase, but when he's on (in the past), he's been one of the better pitchers in the National League

-The Cubs don't have to pay a dime for the Mets to take Zambrano off their hands

-Get rid of Carlos Zambrano and his antics!

Why this makes sense for the Mets

-acquiring a pitcher of Zambrano's stature and age would be a major coup for the Mets, who have failed to find a solid #2 starter to compliment Johan Santana

-Get rid of Luis Castillo!

-Get rid of Oliver Perez!

Why this makes no sense for the Cubs

-Who in their right mind would pick up Oliver Perez right now?

-Luis Castillo...two years, $12 million? Pleaaaasse. That's too much!

Why this makes no sense for the Mets

-Can they afford to pick up Zambrano's salary including the money owed?

-What kind of prospects would the Cubs be looking for in this deal?

Bottom Line: Pipe dream, I know. I'd love to see Big Z on the Mets, but this deal just involves too much risk for the Cubs.

And honestly, this trade on paper just looks dumb. Back to the drawing board!

Coming up: Hypothetical Carlos Zambrano trade #3

Does this trade make any sense? Thoughts?

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter)

Carlos Zambrano Hypothetical Trade #1

The general consensus around baseball seems to be that if the Cubs are willing to trade Carlos Zambrano this winter, then they will have a tough time finding a team that's willing to take on Zambrano's $18 million dollar salary let alone give the Cubs any top notch prospects in return.

So after scouring Cot's Baseball Contracts, we have come up with a number of hypothetical trades for the Cubs and Zambrano this offseason that might, or might not, make sense.

Cubs acquire: Juan Pierre

Dodgers acquire: Carlos Zambrano, cash (offset some of the salary difference)

******* *******

Why this makes sense for the Cubs

-The Cubs struggled to find a productive leadoff hitter all season and Pierre would fill that void. In limited playing time, Pierre has put up some amazing numbers this season: .313 batting average, .387 OBP, 26 SB, and stellar defense in left field.

-Pierre is only owed $18.5 million over the next two seasons, which a far cry from the more than $50 million owed to Zambrano through 2012 (or 2013).

Why this makes sense for the Dodgers

-Acquire a potential top flight starting pitcher, who could give the Dodgers one of the best starting rotations in baseball. No matter what you think of Zambrano, pitchers of his caliber are not easily found.

-clear the logjam in the outfield by dealing Pierre

Why this makes no sense for the Cubs

-Where would Pierre play? With Fukudome, Bradley, and Soriano all signed through next season, the Cubs would need to move one of them in order to give Pierre consistent playing time

-Who would play CF? The Cubs were a mess this season defensively this season in center field and even though Juan Pierre is a speedster, he's a much better left fielder than center fielder at this point in his career.

-Was the 2009 season a fluke for Juan Pierre?

-Do they really want to pick up some of the tab for Zambrano?

Why this makes no sense for the Dodgers

-Carlos Zambrano is inconsistent, injury prone, and a headcase.

-Zambrano is signed through 2012 at least, which is two years more than Juan Pierre. Are the Dodgers willing to make such a commitment to a guy with a volatile and inconsistent history?

-Yes, Juan Pierre is overpaid, but he's still a very useful player that the Dodgers should keep around.

Bottom Line: Not really feeling this trade for the Cubs. Finding a taker for Zambrano is going to be very tough.

Coming up: Hypothetical Carlos Zambrano trade #2

Does this trade make any sense? Thoughts?

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter)

Jorge Says....HELL NO JESSE CARLSON

Jesse Carlson...OH NO YOU DIDN'T (what did he do exactly?)!

Let the beat down begin.



Holy crap. Never expected that from Jorge.

The Market for Carlos Zambrano

With news breaking yesterday that the Cubs may look to deal Carlos Zambrano, I can't help but be skeptical. Firstly, I have a tough time believing that any team will take on the more than $50+ million owed to Zambrano over the next three years (probably more). Secondly, I doubt that the Cubs will be able to get a package for Zambrano that they find appealing. Zambrano has too much money owed to him and too much of a injury risk for teams to deal legit prospects for him:

With that said, I scoured Cot's Baseball Contracts to see if there are actually some options out there for the Cubs. What teams out there would actually be willing to pick up the $50+ million owed to Zambrano?

Angels: Lots of money coming off the books this year and a healthy and productive Zambrano would give them one of the best rotations in baseball.

Mets: For the past two years now, the Mets have needed another quality starter behind Johan Santana. Zambrano would be exactly the kind of pitcher the Mets would want. However, you have to wonder just how much payroll the Mets would be willing to take on in light of all the Madoff madness that the Wilpons have gone through.

Dodgers: The Dodgers have more than $26 million bucks coming off the books this summer and should look to upgrade their pitching staff. Zambrano could become an option if the Dodgers fail to bring back Randy Wolf. However, there is one major problem: Kemp, Bronxton, Billingsley, and Ethier are all arbitration eligible and should be due for raises. A good chunk of that $26 million could be tied up in those young players.

Mariners: Only have $41 million committed towards next year's payroll so adding Zambrano might not be out of the question. Zambrano would be a fantastic fit behind Felix Hernandez in the Mariners rotation and would add some depth to the starting staff if Erik Bedard chooses to go elsewhere.

Thoughts? What other teams could be options for Zambrano and the Cubs?

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter)

The 20% Club: Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, and Joe Mauer

Over the next few seasons, some of baseball's brightest young stars will become free agents for the first time. And while baseball fans like myself are excited to see how much money these young stars will get on the open market, simply thinking about a new contract must be a scary thought for the mid level teams, who simply do not have the salary structure to take on huge contracts.

How can the Brewers expect to keep Prince Fielder after 2012 if their payroll remains around $80 million?

Is there any possible way that the Indians can keep Grady Sizemore after 2012 if their payroll remains around $80 million?

And how in the world will the Twins be able to sign Joe Mauer after 2011 if their payroll refuses to rise from $65-$70 million?

The answer: there's simply no way...unless they plan on joining the 20% club.

You might be wondering, what exactly is the 20% club? It's the exclusive group of players in MLB whose salary takes up at least 1/5th of their team's total payroll. By my count, there were only four members of the 20% club this season:

Michael Young: 2009 salary: $16 million/ 2009 team payroll: $68 million (23.5%) Barry Zito: 2009 salary: $18.5 million/ 2009 team payroll: $82 million (22.6%) Todd Helton: 2009 Salary: $16 million/ 2009 team payroll: $75 million (22.3%) Brian Giles: 2009 Salary: $9 million/ 2009 team payroll: $43 million (21.0%)

And here are some big names that just missed out on the 20% club:

Carlos Lee: 2009 Salary: $18.5 million/ 2009 team payroll: $102 million (18.1%) Albert Pujols: 2009 Salary: $16.1 million/ 2009 team payroll: $88 million (18.1%) Ichiro Suzuki: 2009 Salary: $17 million/ 2009 team payroll: $98 million (17.1%) Jose Guillen: 2009 Salary: $12 million/ 2009 team payroll: $70 million (17.1%) Eric Chavez: 2009 Salary: $11 million/ 2009 team payroll: $66 million (16.7%)

Francisco Cordero: 2009 Salary: $12 million/ 2009 team payroll: $73 million (16.4)

Justin Morneau: 2009 Salary: $10.6 million/ 2009 team payroll: $65 million (16.3%)

Now the question comes down to this: would any of these three teams be willing willing to make their young star (Fielder, Sizemore, Mauer) a member of the 20% club? Let's take a look:

Prince Fielder-Milwaukee Brewers: If the Brewers are going to have any chance of keeping Price Fielder long term, I imagine that it will take a contract upwards of $17-$20 million dollars a season for 5-7 years. I have a tough time thinking that the Brewers will be able to comply with Fielder's contract for two reasons:

1. If their payroll stays around $70-$80 million, then Fielder's contract would take up at least 25% of the Brewers' payroll. Can the Brewers compete if 1/4th of their payroll is locked up with Prince Fielder?

2. From 2013-2015, the Brewers will have to deal with the rising cost of Ryan Braun, who's contract will take up roughly 10% of the Brewers payroll. Now ask yourself, can the Brewers actually compete if almost 35% of their payroll is locked up in only two guys? I doubt it.

Grady Sizemore-Cleveland Indians: I'll be very upfront about it: the odds of Sizemore and the Indians coming to terms on a new contract are very slim at this point. Just look at the Indians' recent history with their young stars?

CC Sabathia: traded
Cliff Lee: traded
Victor Martinez: traded

Yikes. It's not looking to good for Sizemore and the Indians. On the open market, Sizemore can probably command a deal around $20 million per year, which is probably far outside the Indians' price range.

But I'll tell you this: the Indians need to keep Grady Sizemore. I'm not sure that I'd feel comfortable committing around 20% of the Indians' payroll to Sizemore, but at the same time, I think the Indians are somewhat obligated to trying to lock of Sizemore long term simply because they've already dealt so many young stars away.

Joe Mauer-Minnesota Twins: Even though the Twins claim that they have money to spend on Mauer, I have a tough time figuring out where that money is going to come from. The reality is this: the Twins' payroll has only exceeded $70 million once (in 2007) and Joe Mauer will likely command a contract exceeding $20 million a year. So unless Mauer is willing to take a hometown discount, I can't see the Twins' allowing one player to take up roughly 30% of their payroll.

Thoughts? Do any of these three have a chance to join the 20% club?

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter)

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Johnny Damon

There aren't too many players, who put up some of the best of numbers of their career at 35 years old. But Johnny Damon is doing just that. Even though Damon is past his supposed prime, he's still putting up fantastic numbers that make him a dynamite offensive force. While Damon remains a sub par outfielder with no arm strength at best, his offensive ability makes a power hitting and run scoring machine.

So as Damon turns 36 next season, let's see what the market holds for this one time idiot turned Yankee:

The Case for Damon

-total package

When it comes to offensive production, there is nothing that Damon can't do. He can hit for a high average (.286 this season). He can get on base (.368 OBP in '09). He can hit for power (24 HR). He is still one of the top run scorers in baseball (100 runs scored). Damon can hit both lefties (.281 this season) and righties (.289 this season). And yes, even at the age of 35, Damon still has 10 steals this season. Whatever team that signs Damon will be acquiring one of the most well rounded offensive players in baseball today.

The Case against Damon

-arm

Damon has one of the worst outfield arms in all of baseball. At this point in his career, watching Damon throw is painfully bad. Don't expect him to gun down any runners at the plate any time soon.

-Defense

For the past two seasons, Damon has actually been a well above average defensive left fielder for the Yankees, which is stunning given his lack of arm strength. But Damon's superior range made up for it and made him an asset in the outfield. However, this season Damon's range has taken a nosedive and not surprisingly, fangraphs notes that Damon's UZR has taken a dramatic decline from his '07-'08 levels and now sits at -8.9.

Competition

-While there are a number of quality free agent corner outfielders out there this offseason, there is only one other corner outfielder that has a skillset similar to Damon is Bobby Abreu. Both guys are supposedly past their prime, but both are still very, very productive at the dish and not particulary good in the outfield.

Elias Ranking: Type A

The Yankees can afford to offer Damon arbitration. It's a win-win situation if they can't come to terms with Damon on a long term deal: two draft picks or Damon's services in 2010. A raise from the 13 mil he got this year is a huge risk, but I wouldn't count this option out just yet.

(rankings courtesy of MLBTR)

Prediction
(2 years/$22 million with a third year option for $13 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:

-Raul Ibanez (3 years/$31 million)
-Adam Dunn (2 years/$20 million)

Damon's 2009 season has really put him back on the map as one of the game's best offensive talents. I have no doubt that he'll be paid for it. I don't think there's any doubt that the best place for Damon next season is back in pinstripes, where he's carved out a nice niche hitting behind Derek Jeter, scoring tons of runs, keeping the locker room loose, and hitting lots of home runs because of the Yankees ridiculously short right field.

The dollar amount here seems right because of Damon's production this season and I feel very comfortable giving Damon a two year deal because he's shown no signs of decline. And you know what, if Damon is still able to produce after two years, then a $13 million dollar option is not a horrendous idea.

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter!)

The Race for Bryce Harper, Week 5

Even though I missed a week in documenting the race for Bryce Harper, not much has changed atop the leaderboard. To check out the Harper standings from two weeks ago, click here.

Without further ado, here are the current standings in the race for Bryce Harper:

1. Washington Nationals

-The Nationals are simply running away with the Harper sweepstakes. A 6.06 team ERA in September highlights why the Nationals are pulling so far ahead. With less than 20 games to play, it looks like the Nationals have Bryce Harper all but locked up, barring a miraculous winning streak by the Nationals or a miraculous losing streak by the Pirates or Royals.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6 GB

-It was only a matter of time before the Pirates bottomed out. After losing so many starters and relying mainly on young guys and unprovens in the second half, a massive drop in performance was inevitable. The Pirates are 2-9 in September, which has catapulted them from third two weeks ago to second this week in the Harper standings. But with so little time left, you have to wonder if the Pirates have enough bad baseball left in them to catapult over the hapless Nationals.

3. Kansas City Royals, 7 GB

-This is all you need to know about the 2009 Royals: two weeks ago, the Royals were only 4.5 games back of the Nationals for Harper, a player who could change the culture of the franchise. But in September, the Royals have actually played good baseball by sporting a respectable 7-5 record. While it might be optomistic for Royals' fans to see their team playing well, their September play has effectively taken them out of the running for Bryce Harper! Oh well, at least they have another 4 years of Dayton Moore!

4. Batimore Orioles, 8.5 GB

-It's sad for me to say, but the dream of Bryce Harper and Matt Wieters playing on the same team is not going to happen.

5. Cleveland Indians, 11 GB

-This is where the real race is. The Indians have the same record as the Diamondbacks and the Mets, yes my beloved Mets with a $140 million dollar payroll, are only 1 GB! Which one of these three teams will lose enough down the stretch to win the fifth spot in the draft? Put my money down on the Mets...something good has to come out of the 2009 season, right?

Thoughts?

Pedro Martinez: The Free Agent

After his mastery against the Mets last night, Pedro Martinez's numbers are officially ridiculous. In seven starts with the Phillies, Pedro is 5-0 with a phenomenal 2.87 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.

Hey Pedro, this isn't 1999!

But in all honesty, I did not think that Pedro had much left in the tank. After watching his gut through the 2008 season with the Mets where he was nothing more than a bad 5th starter, I believed that the dominant Pedro was long gone...the very good Pedro was no more...and the sometimes ok Pedro was here to stay.

But as they say, that's why they play the games! I don't think anyone in their wildest imagination could have imagined that Pedro was going to be this good with the Phillies. For God's sake, Pedro (in a admittedly limited sample size) is striking out almost a batter an inning (34 K in 37 innings)!

So what does this all mean for Pedro Martinez as we look towards 2010? Well, I can tell you one thing, Pedro will not have to wait until July to find work. It's become clear that Pedro still has the ability to be an effective starting pitcher...especially in the National League. I know it's easy for us to get ahead of ourselves here because the sample size is so small, but Pedro's stuff looks very, very sharp right now.

At this point, would it be naive to think that Pedro could actually get more than a one year deal on the open market? Probably. But if Pedro finishes out the season strong and has a dynamite postseason, then maybe, just maybe, the idea of giving a 38year old Pedro Martinez a two year deal might not sound so stupid and crazy.

Thoughts? How much can Pedro get on the open market?

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Bengie Molina

Benjie Molina is one of the slowest players in baseball today. For that reason alone, he's one of my favorite players to watch.

Benjie Molina also has two brothers, who play professional baseball and both brothers (Jose and Yadier) are catchers just like him. What are the odds of that? The genes in the Molina household must be ridiculous.

But as Molina enters the twilight of his career, what are the chances that he's able to land one last big contract? Let's take a look:

The Case for Molina

-Power

Since 2003, Molina has never hit less than 10 home runs in any single season. Surprisingly Molina's power numbers have actually spiked a bit with age as he's averaged between 16-19 home runs per year with the Giants.

-Defense

While Molina is no longer the top defensive catcher in baseball, he can still get the job done behind the plate. True, his percentage of caught base stealers this season is down to 24%, but over the course of his career, Molina is consistently thrown out around 30-35% of base stealers. And for what it's worth, under his watch, the Giants have developed two of the best young pitchers in baseball (Lincecum, Cain) and the career of Barry Zito has been revitalized.

The Case against Molina

-OBP

Molina has never drawn more than 20 walks in any season since 2006. In addition, Molina in two of the last three seasons, Molina has produced sub .300 OBPs. And finally, Molina's lifetime OBP is .307. Even though Molina is a lifetime .275 hitter, his inability to draw walks and get on base limits his value.

-Patience

We have already documented how poor Benjie Molina's OBP has been, but that doesn't tell the entire story. According to fangraphs, Molina swings at 43.8% of pitches he sees that are out of the strike zone. The man truly does not see a pitch that he doesn't like to swing at.

-age

Molina is 35 years old and will be turning 36 next July. You have to wonder how much longer Molina will be able to play at a high level and how much more wear and tear Molina's body can take. Fitness has never been a trademark of Molina's, so it'll be interested to see how many years he has left as a starter.

Competition

-While Benjie Molina can no longer be considered a top flight catcher, the one thing that he has going for him offseason is that the market for catchers is very weak. Aside from Jason Kendall and maybe Rod Barajas (gulp), you'd have a really difficult time saying that any of the catchers on the free agent market is significantly better than Molina at the moment.

Elias Ranking: Type A

-If Molina is a type A free agent, you have to wonder if the Giants would offer him arbitration. I'm sure the Giants don't feel terribly comfortable committing a large chunk of change to Molina with Buster Posey waiting in the wings, but the allure of landing two more draft picks sure is enticing.

(rankings courtesy of MLBTR)

Prediction
(2 years/$6 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:

Ivan Rodriguez (1 year/$1.5 million)
Rod Barajas (2 years/$2.9 million)
Gregg Zaun (1 year/$2 million)

I'll admit this: there weren't too many comparable contracts for Benjie Molina. But despite that, I think Molina will benefit from the lack of quality catchers on the free agent market this season and ultimately earn a multi year deal. However, I'm very skeptical that Molina will be an effective starting catcher over the course of the entire contract.

Thoughts?

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter!)

Right View Pro: The Future is Here

Let's take a trip down memory lane for a second: when you played little league baseball, what we're some of the common tips that coaches gave you with regards to hitting?

Among the litany of tips I received during my little league years, these two hitting tips were exclaimed over and over and over again.

"squish the bug!"

"stay back on the ball!"

If you gave me a quarter each time I heard one of those two phrases in little league, well, I'd be one rich man.

Little did I know that these instructional tips were all wrong. The 11 year old inside me was crushed.

But in the hour that I had the privilege to speak with Mr. Don Slaught, the founder of Right View Pro, I learned more about the fundamentals of hitting than I ever learned from playing baseball.

To me, hitting was a complex beast that at times was impossible. With so many different body parts moving at such a quick speed, I, like many young hitters, struggled to adapt to hitting higher level pitching, especially the breaking ball.

Mr. Slaught recognized that while some hitters are naturally gifted and progress nicely against quality pitching, roughly 80% of players quit by age 13 because they cannot hit a baseball. So Mr. Slaught decided to do something about it. Mr. Slaught founded Right View Pro, a California based company that uses advanced technology to show hitters what they should be doing as opposed to just telling them.

And when I say advanced technology, I really mean advanced technology. Mr. Slaught uses cameras that allow him to look at a hitter's swing from 4 different angles in super slow motion, from the start of the swing until the follow through. Slaught is able to point out frame by frame what each hitter is doing correctly and incorrectly. In addition, the technology allows Mr. Slaught to examine up to four hitters swings side by side (little leaguers, amateur players, and professionals) so you can actually see the many similarities and distinct differences hitters have in their swings. How cool is that?

When you break down great hitters' swings side by side, what you can actually see is that even though hitters might look different at the plate, the basic principles of hitting apply to all the greats. They all stay balanced, lead with their back elbow, maintain their attacking posture, and move forward with their entire body.

But where exactly can Right View Pro make the biggest impact? With the kids. As Slaught stated, "it's much easier to show a kid what he's doing as opposed to telling him what he's supposed to be doing." "I wanted to come up with a system where kids could see exactly what they were doing as opposed to what you wanted them to do."

And in short: Mr. Slaught has done exactly that.

I shutter to think how much my hitting would have improved if I could have watched my swing in super slow motion and detect my errors and reinforce good habits. Or how about if I was able to compare my swing to some of the best baseball players on the planet in super slow motion? Not only would that have been VERY COOL, but there's no doubt in my mind that I would have been a better hitter, who actually understood what it took to be a productive hitter. I'm jealous that this technology wasn't around when I was playing baseball!

I'd like to thank Mr. Don Slaught for being so generous with his time and thoroughly explaining the RVP system and the principles of hitting to me. I'm very fortunate to have had the opportunity to explore this amazing teaching tool that will continue to develop productive hitters.

If you're looking to improve your hitting skills and mechanics, then I would encourage you to check out: www.rightviewpro.com

Did you know that Mickey Mantle and Ichiro have the same type of swing? To see this and how the RVP technology works, click here.

(photo courtesy of ESPN.com)

Matt Holliday to the Angels?

Let the Matt Holliday free agent speculation begin. From Buster Olney:

"But I'll venture a guess (and it's nothing more at this point): Holliday winds up signing with the Angels, effectively replacing Vladimir Guerrero within their salary structure."

Now comes the obvious question: could it actually happen?

YES

-Angels have a ton of money coming off the books this offseason. Between Vladimir Guerrero, Chone Figgins, John Lackey, Bobby Abreu, and Kelvim Escobar, the Angels will clear roughly $44 million dollars entering this offseason. The potential is definitely there for the Angels to make a big splash if they choose to invest that money in free agency.

-Holliday would be a fantastic choice to replace Vladimir Guerrero in the outfield!

NO

-Every offseason, the Angels are linked to most of the major free agents as a possible destination. But in the past five years, there are only two major free agents, who I can think of that came to the Angels at top level prices: Torri Hunter and Gary Matthews Jr, who was actually from the area. Remember that Vladimir Guerrero and Brian Fuentes both signed with the Angels after taking less than each expected on the open market and having their price tag come down to a level that the Angels felt comfortable with. I'd love to see the Angels make a big splash as much as anyone, but the Angels have been content over the years to take chances on mid level free agents and build through the farm. We'll see if that changes.

-By my count, the Angels will have a number of players due for raises this offseason: Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, Jered Weaver, Mike Napoli, and Maicer Izturis. When it's all said and done, the raises given out to those will chip away at the Angels' financial flexibility.

-And finally, the Angels might look to re-sign some of their own players this offseason. While I expect them to let Escobar, Lackey, and Guerrero walk; it would not surprise me to see the Angels make a strong run to retain both Figgins and Abreu. Re-signing those two guys (at least) would further chip away at the amount of funds the Angels have to play with this offseason.

For more on Matt Holliday's impending free agency, click here.

What do you think?

Did the Orioles Make a Mistake By Not Trading Luke Scott?

From May until July, Luke Scott was one of the biggest surprises in baseball. Scott was tearing the cover off the ball and many wondered if the slugger was finally developing into the player that so many thought he would become. By the all star break, Scott had put together stats worthy of praise: .305 batting average, 18 home runs, 51 RBIs, and a robust .384 OBP.

Despite those impressive numbers, I still wondered if the Orioles should look to trade Luke Scott at the deadline. Here is a excerpt of the reasons why I thought the Orioles should look to move Scott:

"1. His value has never been higher

-Outside of a brief stretch in 2006, Scott has never been this good of a player. If McPhail wants to maximize return on Scott, now is the time to do it.

2. The future

-Even though Scott is playing well right now, he is likely not the Orioles future plans. Scott is almost 31 years old, , which is not old, but probably too old for Scott to be considered a building block for the future. Moving him now would bring back some potential building blocks."

To me, it made all the sense int he world for Orioles to continue the rebuilding process and move Scott if the opportunity presented itself. Scott had just put together two of the best months of his life and with the Orioles going nowhere, now was the time to pounce.

But as we all know by now, the Orioles decided to hold onto Luke Scott. And not surprisingly, Scott's numbers have taken a drastic nosedive down to his 2007-2008 levels where he probably belongs. Scott is a .250+ hitter with the ability to hit 20+ home runs and drive in some runs. He's once again proven that he's nothing more than this.

What I can't totally wrap my finger around is why there was so little trade chatter about Luke Scott during the deadline. Am I the only one who thought this was a good idea? So in my best efforts to figure out McPhail's thinking, I have come up with a few options why Scott was never moved:

1. Orioles wanted to hold onto Scott long term and never looked to move him

2. Orioles did not get the package they were looking for

3. As commenter Christopher Collichio put it back in May: "Teams aren't stupid, they know what Luke Scott is capable of, and can see through the fact that he is just on a hot streak at the moment."

And maybe, just maybe, that's the answer right there. No team was willing to pay a high price for Scott because no one thought that he was capable of sustaining those numbers. And on the other side, the Orioles weren't just going to give Scott away because he was their best hitter for more than a month and was showing some potential.

In the end, who knows what happened. All I know is that if I was Andy McPhail, I would have been pushing to move Luke Scott in June/July for the sole purpose of maximizing the possible return.

Did McPhail make the right choice by not moving Scott? Only time will tell.

Thoughts?

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Matt Holliday

Before the 2009 season began, people wondered if Matt Holliday was simply a good hitter, who became a great hitter because he played half of his games at Coors Field. During his time with the Rockies, Holliday was one of the most feared hitters in baseball and routinely put up numbers that seemed possible only in video games.

However, the 2009 season was going to be huge for Holliday. In a move designed for the future, the Rockies traded Holliday to the Oakland Athletics for three players. Finally we would know if Holliday was just a great hitter at Coors Field or if he could perform at an optimal level elsewhere.

During his tenure with the A's, Holliday performed like so many of us thought he would once he was away from Coors Field: above average. Holliday put up nice numbers, but they were nothing close to his production with the Rockies.

But just a few days before the trading deadline, Matt Holliday was traded from the lifeless A's to the upstart Cardinals and the rest, as they say, is history. Since arriving in St. Louis, Holliday has been absolutely amazing: .386, 12 homers, 61 hits in 160 ABs, and a God like 1.143 OPS.

What will Holliday's amazing stretch with the Cardinals mean to his free agent candidacy? Let's take a look:

The Case for Holliday

-Fantastic offensive player

-The funny part is that I'm not sure that the word fantastic does justice to just how good of a hitter Matt Holliday has become. Holliday can do it all on the offensive side: hit for power, get on base, steal bases, drive in runs, etc. Take a look at these stats:

-Since 2005, Holliday has never hit lower than .307.
-.319 lifetime batting average
-Holliday scored 100+ runs in each season from 2006-2008
-Holliday hit over 30 home runs in 2006 and 2007 and has a realistic chance to hit 30+ in 2009
-Holliday's career OBP is a gaudy .388
-lifetime OPS of .937
-stolen at least 10 bases in every season since 2005

-defense

Even though Holliday is known for his offensive ability, whatever team that signs Holliday would actually be acquiring a pretty good defensive player. Since 2004, Holliday has only produced a negative UZR once (2006) and has a lifetime UZR/150 of 6.3. There are signs that Holliday's range has slipped from an elite level (10+), but his range still makes him a well above average defensive left fielder (6.0).

-age

Keep in mind that Holliday is only 29 years old. You know what that means: Holliday is just entering his "prime years" and should be able to perform at a optimal level for years to come.

The Case against Holliday

-Can he hit away from Coors Field?

-Until Holliday is able to consistently produce away from Coors Field, this question will continue to be thrown out there by baseball people. As I mentioned before, Holliday has certainly helped his cause because of his great performance with the Cardinals, but people will always take note of how gaudy his Coors Field numbers were and how much his stats declined when he was on the road (granted, Holliday's numbers were still very good).

-The real Matt Holliday: first half or second half?

It would have been interesting to see what kind of numbers Holliday would have put up if he remained with the Athletics for the full season. Remember that Holliday only hit 11 home runs in 346 at bats with the A's, so by all accounts, it looked like his numbers we're taking a nose dive. There are a million different reasons why Holliday all of a sudden became one of the best hitters in baseball again once he left the A's...The Cardinals are in a pennant chase, the NL is much weaker, Holliday simply heated up during the summer, etc. But I ask you this: which is the real Matt Holliday- the first half version or the second half?

Competition

At this point, you have to say that Holliday is in a class all by himself on the free agent market. He is the only hitter on the market, who has clearly established himself as a superstar player. Even with all the questions surrounding Holliday and Coors, Holliday's numbers speak volumes. In my opinion, he's the only guy on the free agent market this offseason, who has put himself in a position for a deal exceeding $90 million bucks. There is no other player on the market this offseason that offers Holliday's combination of production, ability, and age. The man is in a class all by himself at the moment.

Elias Ranking: Type A

-Conventional wisdom says that the Cardinals will offer Holliday arbitration. Teams will not shy away from Holliday because of his elias ranking. Holliday is the kind of player that teams are willing to lose draft picks to acquire. The only way I can see the Cardinals not offering Holliday arbitration is if their financial situation is so bad that they don't want to risk getting stuck with the large amount of money Holliday would have coming to him.

(rankings courtesy of MLBTR)

Prediction

(7 years/$110 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:
-Carlos Beltran (7 years/$119 million)
-Vernon Wells (7 years/$105 million)
-Carlos Lee (6 years/$100 million)
-Torii Hunter (5 years/$90 million)

After the 2007 season, I thought there was a legitimate chance that Holliday could receive a contract that exceeded $150 million. However, given the state of the economy, I'm going to stay conservative on my first estimate with Holliday. However, this estimate could skyrocket in a few months if Hollday finishes out the season strong and leads the Cardinals to a pennant or even a World Series title. A big factor in how much money Holliday ultimately earns will be the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox. If Scott Boras can somehow get these three teams to enter a bidding war for Holliday, then all bets are off. This contract could become MASSIVE.

Thoughts?

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter!)

2009 Roster: Worst Contract Extensions (The September Edition)

After looking over my original roster from April, I decided that it was about time that I fully updated the 2009 roster of the worst contract extensions. Many of the players, who were on my original list, have played themselves off the list (that means you, Chris Carpenter), but a new group of players have unfortunately made their way onto the list either because of poor performance of even injuries (hello, Yuniesky).

The bottom line is this: in the world of baseball contracts, a lot can change from April to September.

Please take into account how I define "contract extension" for the sake of this roster:

1. Player was traded to new team and then signed a new contract with the club (i.e Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis)

2. Player was under contract with a team, but signed a new, long term deal (i.e Travis Hafner)

3. Player signed a new contract with same club BEFORE he filed for free agency(i.e Alex Rodriguez's 10 year/$275 contract is not an extension on this list...and neither is Luis Castillo's 4 year/$26 million dollar contract...or Nick Punto's 2 year/$9.5 contract. All of these guys filed for free agency before they signed with their old team)

Just one final note before we get to the rosters. The teams you see listed next to each individual player are the team that the player signed the contract extension with at the time.

2009 Roster of the Worst Contract Extensions (The September Edition)

C- Kenji Johjima (3 years/$24 million), Mariners
1B- Dmitri Young (2 years/$10 million), Nationals
2B- Bill Hall (4 years/$24 million), Brewers
SS- Bobby Crosby (5 years/$12.5 million), A's
3B- Eric Chavez (6 years/$66 million), A's

OF- Vernon Wells (7 years/$126 million), Blue Jays
OF- Eric Byrnes (3 years/$30 million), Diamondbacks
OF- Austin Kearns (3 years/$17.5 million), Nationals

DH- Travis Hafner (4 years/$57 million), Indians

Bench- Brandon Inge (4 years/$24 million), Tigers
Bench- Carlos Guillen (4 years/$48 million), Tigers
Bench- Chad Tracy (3 years/$13 million), Diamondbacks
Bench: Yuniesky Betancourt (4 years/$13.75 million), Mariners
Bench: Khalil Greene (2 years/$11 million), Padres
Bench- Gary Sheffield (2 years/$28 million), Tigers
Bench: Brian Schneider, (4 years/$16 million), Nationals

(Contracts that I'm still conflicted on: Todd Helton (9 years/$141 million), Michael Young (5 years/$80 million), Hideki Matsui (4 years/$52 million), Alex Rios (7 years/$69 million)


SP- Kelvim Escobar (3 years/$28.5 million), Angels
SP- Jake Westbrook (3 years/$33 million), Indians
SP- Dontrelle Willis (3 years/$29 million), Tigers
SP- Fausto Carmona (4 years/$15 million), Indians
SP- Jose Contreras (3 years/$29 million), White Sox

P- Nate Robertson (3 years/$21 million), Tigers
P- Jeremy Bonderman (4 years/$38 million), Tigers

(Not looking too good: Brad Lidge (3 years/$37.5 million), Manny Corpas (4 years/$8 million)

So by my count, here is the running tally of horrible contract extensions by team (turn away, Tigers fans):

1. Tigers: 6
2. Indians: 3 / Nationals: 3
3. Mariners: 2/ Indians: 2/ Diamondbacks: 2
4. Angels: 1/ White Sox: 1/ Padres: 1/ Blue Jays: 1/ Brewers: 1

The most amazing part about some of these extensions gone bad is that it's hard to fault the GM for making the move.

Can anyone is Detroit really blame Tigers' management for locking up Jeremy Bonderman to a contract extension only to have him suffer through 2 injury plagued seasons? Not me.

Can anyone really blame Indians GM Mark Shapiro for trying to keep playoff hero Fausto Carmona under control for a number of years for a reasonable amount of money? I can't.

So just remember this: while some of these extensions are completely and utterly indefensible (hello, Vernon Wells), there are a select few that are simply unworthy of bashing.

Thoughts?

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Hypothetically Speaking: Would You Trade Kosuke Fukudome for Aaron Rowand?

This continues the series of hypothetical trades involving players with high salaries that would be consummated during the offseason. To view more of these trades, click here and here.

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that the Cubs have determined that they need to trade the disappointing Kosuke Fukudome in order to acquire a legit center fielder. One of the Cubs' biggest weaknesses this season was that they had no center fielder. Milton Bradley, Alfonso Soriano, and Fukudome could not get the job done. It's obvious that this needs to change in 2010. And for hypothetical purposes, let's assume that Fukudome is willing to waive his full no trade clause in order to get a fresh start elsewhere.

Could the Giants be a match for the Cubs? The Giants currently have Aaron Rowand, a gritty player who is a solid hitter and adequate defender. However, Rowand is owed $36 million over the next three years, which is far more than he should be making.

So the deal is on the table: Kosuke Fukudome for Aaron Rowand....

Would you do it? Let's lay out the pros and cons for each side:

Why the Cubs would do it:

-no quality center fielders on the free agent market
-Rowand is a hard nosed player, who has performed well in Chicago before
-Rowand is a solid defender (average this year), but still much better than anything the Cubs threw out there is center

Why the Giants would do it:

-Fukudome is a solid player (roughly the same offensive player as Rowand and is a very good RF)
-Save money! Fukudome is owed $26.5 million over the next two seasons, which is $10 million less than Rowand.
-Fukudome is only signed through 2011 (one less year than Rowand)
-The Giants' priority needs to be freeing up money to sign Lincecum (and maybe even Cain) to contract extensions...having less money committed in 2012 certainly could help.

Why the Cubs wouldn't do it:

-Fukudome is a draw and brings lots of money to the organization
-Is Rowand on the decline?
-Aaron Rowand is not worth that much money
-Too much money tied up in the future
-Fukudome has more potential than Rowand?

Why the Giants wouldn't do it:

-If Rowand is gone, who would play center?
-Rowand is a leader...who would replace him?
-This trade does not guarantee that the Giants would be able to sign Lincecum to a long term deal (risk?)

So I'll ask again: would you make this deal? Does this make sense...?

Thoughts?

The Zack Greinke Contract Extension

Yesterday Royals GM Dayton Moore answered questions from fans via mlb.com. The idea in theory is a good one: have the GM answer questions straight from the fans this way the fans feel connected and the GM can get his message out to the general public. However there was one notable name absent from the chat.

Zach Greinke.

Amazingly there was not one question about the Royals' ace in the chat. If I could ask Moore one question where I was forced to stay absolutely positive about the job he's done so far with the Royals and by no means could I even attempt to state anything negative, I would have said the following:

How lucky are you that Zach Greinke agreed to a contract extension with the Royals LAST SEASON?

Moore's tenure as GM has been defined by questionable decisions and puzzling acquisitions, but the signing of Greinke has been nothing short of genius. At the time the extension was announced, the deal looked great from the Royals' point of view because they were able to lock up their ace for the next four years at a fantastic price (4 years/$38 million).

But now that Greinke is one his way to winning his first CY Young award, the Greinke extension looks like highway robbery at this point. Think about it: if Moore had held off on giving Greinke a contract extension last offseason, imagine what it would have cost the Royals to lock Greinke up long term this season?

I'll tell you this much: it would have cost them A LOT more than $38 million. And you can make the case that this contract saved the Royals a lot more than just money....Dayton Moore's job.

Any predictions?

2009 Roster: Worst Contract Extensions (REVISITING)

In the beginning of April, I took a glance at some of the "worst" contract extensions that were currently floating around baseball.

But after looking back on my initial post, I found that there were a few players, who I can no longer say were "bad contract extensions." Sure, maybe the contract extension was a bit much at the time and could still backfire on the club, but for now, it's unfair for me to label them as "bad extensions."

So here is the original roster I comprised back in April. Please take into account how I defined contract extension at the time:

1. Player was traded to new team and then signed a new contract with the club(i.e Miguel Cabrera)

2. Player was under contract with a team, but signed a new, long term deal

3. Player signed a new contract with same club BEFORE he filed for free agency(i.e Alex Rodriguez's 10 year/$275 contract is not an extension on this list...and neither is Luis Castillo's 4 year/$26 million dollar contract...both guys filed for free agency before they signed with their old team)

2009 Roster of the Worst Contract Extensions

C-Kenji Johjima (3 years/$24 million), Mariners
1B- Todd Helton (9 years/$141 million), Rockies
2B- Bill Hall (4 years/$24 million), Brewers
*(I know Hall doesn't play second base anymore, but I had no one else!)*
SS- Michael Young (5 years/$80 million), Rangers
3B- Eric Chavez (6 years/$66 million), A's

OF- Vernon Wells (7 years/$126 million), Blue Jays
OF- Eric Byrnes (3 years/$30 million), Diamondbacks
OF-Gary Sheffield (2 years/$28 million), Tigers

DH- Travis Hafner (4 years/$57 million), Indians

Bench- Brandon Inge (4 years/$24 million), Tigers
Bench-Scott Rolen (8 years/$90 million), Cardinals/now with Blue Jays
Bench-Carlos Guillen (4 years/$48 million), Tigers *Debatable*
Bench- Hideki Matsui (4 years/$53 million), Yankees
Bench: Dmitri Young (2 years/$10 million), Nationals
Bench: Jack Wilson (3 years/$20 million), Pirates

SP- Chris Carpenter (5 years/$65 million), Cardinals
SP- Jake Westbrook (3 years/$33 million), Indians
SP- Dontrelle Willis (3 years/$29 million), Tigers
SP- Bronson Arroyo (2 years/$25 million), Reds
SP-Nate Robertson (3 years/$21 million), Tigers
SP-Jose Contreras (3 years/$29 million), White Sox

RP-Mike McDougal (3 years/$6.5 million), White Sox

******* *******

From the roster that I compiled back in April, there are four players that I'd like to discuss further:

Todd Helton : Helton has been absolutely fantastic this season for the Rockies and truly is the heart and soul of that team. Sure Helton has declined over the years, but he's remained a valuable asset to the Rockies, which you have to give him credit for. I still can't justify the 9 year/$141 million dollar deal, but a productive Helton makes this deal a little easier to swallow.

Michael Young: From the moment the Rangers gave Michael Young the massive 5 year/$80 million dollar contract, I have been very critical of the move. In fact, I hated it. For a team that had limited resources to work with, I thought that the Rangers should have used their money on pitching. But maybe, just maybe, Michael Young falls into the "Todd Helton" category of guys who's value you cannot simply measure by what he does on the baseball field. Young means so much to this franchise. And oh yeah, he's having a great year. So like Helton, I think Young's contract is excessive, but I'm hard pressed to call it horrible.

Brandon Inge: A 4 year/$24 million dollar extension looks like a bargain for the first half Brandon Inge. But in the 2nd half of the season, Inge has hit just a lowly .170 with only 6 home runs. As a result, his average has plummeted to .232 and the power that he showed in the first half has evaporated. At points this year, it looked like Inge would hit 35-40 home runs, but now you have to wonder if Inge can be a full time player. The power numbers look nice, but the average and OBP simply aren't there. The Tigers only have Inge under contract for another season so it's safe to say at this point that the Tigers have not gotten their money's worth.

Chris Carpenter: I gotta say this: after missing all of 2007 and a majority of 2008, I never expected Chris Carpenter to return as the Chris Carpenter that we've come to expect. What Carpenter has done this season is nothing short of spectacular: 16-3 with a 2.16 ERA and a WHIP of 0.966. Unreal. Does one AMAZING year make the contract worth it for the Cardinals? Probably not, but there is no reason to think that Carpenter can't build on his success over the next two seasons.

And don't look now, but Mike McDougal is pitching pretty well for the Nationals...

Thoughts?

Hypothetically Speaking: Would You Trade Oliver Perez for Gary Matthews Jr.?

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that the Mets have decided that they cannot take another year of Oliver Perez and his inconsistent performance. They'd like to get out from underneath Perez's contract, even though they just signed him to a extension last season.

And maybe, just maybe, the Mets might have a taker for Perez. The Angels are also looking to unload an overpriced and under performing player by the name of Gary Matthews Jr. Matthews has failed to live up the expectations of his $50 million dollar contract and has struggled to gain consistent playing time with the Angels this season.

So the deal is on the table: Oliver Perez for Gary Matthews Jr

Would you do it? Let's lay out the pros and cons for each side:

Why the Mets would do it:

-get out from the under the $24 million owed to Oliver Perez
-no more inconsistent Ollie!
-options: if Matthews performs well, then he could be a option in the OF for the Mets
-defense: even though Matthews has sucked defensively this season, maybe some consistent playing time and the motivation of a starting spot would help Matthews revert to his old gold glove self.

Why the Angels would do it:

-no more Matthews Jr!
-Perez has a much higher upside than Matthews Jr.
-If the Angels can figure out Perez, then they have a potentially dominant (GULP. yes, I said it) starting pitcher
-Perez is still young (28 years old) and has a dynamic arm

Why the Mets wouldn't do it

-Matthews Jr. has not been a good hitter
-Matthews Jr. has not been a good defender
-To sum it up, Gary Matthews Jr has not been a good baseball player since 2006
-Oliver Perez is a mess, but at least he still has potential to be a very, very good pitcher

Why the Angels wouldn't do it

-Did they watch Oliver Perez pitch this season? HE WAS TERRIBLE.
-No control and absolutely no consistency
-Oliver missed a large chunk of the season with injuries
-Dare I say it: even in his declining state, Matthews Jr. is more valuable than Perez

Conclusion

Keep in mind that Perez is owed $24 million over the next two years and Matthews Jr. is owed $23 million over the next two seasons. So money is basically a wash. What this comes down to is that both guys need a change of scenery desperately and would be thrilled if this trade went down, but I have a tough time thinking that either team would be too enthusiastic about this deal.

So I'll ask again: would you make this deal? Does this make sense...?

Thoughts?

Baseball's Roberto Luongo

Since I don't follow hockey, there has to be a good reason why hockey's about to mentioned here. A 12 year contract extension will do that:

The Vancouver Canucks and goalie Roberto Luongo agreed to a 12-year contract extension Wednesday.

The three-time All-Star was entering the final season of a four-year, $27-million contract. The new deal will run through the 2021-22 season and is reportedly worth $64 million.

"Roberto Luongo is the leader of our hockey team; he is in the prime of his playing career and has a tremendous desire to make the Canucks a championship team," general manager Mike Gillis said in a statement. "His leadership, competitiveness and character are what this team will represent for many years to come."

Luongo, 30, is expected to finish his career in Vancouver. He also plans to play for Canada at the 2010 Olympics.

Now as well all know, there is only one player in baseball currently with a contract that exceeds 10 years. That man, of course, is Alex Rodriguez, who signed a 10 year/$275 million dollar extension with the Yankees in 2007.

But the Roberto Luongo contract extension got me thinking: who will be the next baseball player to receive a contract that exceeds 10 years?

Evan Longoria came close (kind of) last season, when he agreed to a 6 year/$17.5 million dollar extension with the Rays that included three club options that would take the contract through 2016. So that'd be nine years. Impressive, but not Luongo-esque.

There are only a handful of players that I think are young enough and talented enough to actually warrant a contract of that length.

Joe Mauer: Mauer will be a free agent after the 2011 season, when he will only be 28 years old. A 10 year+ contract would be awfully risky for a catcher, but the Twins might have to get creative if they want to keep their franchise player.

Felix Hernandez: I've read that Hernandez can become a free agent after the 2011 season, but I've yet to confirm that with Cot's Baseball Contracts. But if that's indeed true, Hernandez will be 26 years old when the 2012 season begins and should be entering the prime of his career, which is scary when you think about how good he is already. It's a definite risk to give a contract that long to pitcher (just go ask Barry Zito), but if there's a pitcher worthy of this kind of a deal, it's King Felix.

Tim Lincecum: Eventually the Giants will have to sit down and try to iron out a contract with Lincecum, who has become the face of the franchise in three quick years. There is a very good chance that the 25 year old Lincecum could walk away with his 2nd CY Young award this season. There's a very good chance that if Lincecum signs a extension with the Giants in the near future, the deal would set all kinds of records for a player with only three years of service time. Could a 10+ year contract be in Lincecum's future? I doubt it.

Justin Upton: Even though Upton will not be a free agent until after the 2013 season, a Luongo-esque contract might make a lot of sense for the Diamondbacks (if he continues to produce). By all accounts, Upton is one of the most talented players in baseball and has put together a fantastic 2009 season, so if the Diamondbacks want to keep Upton long term, a contract that gives Upton lots of security and gives the Diamondbacks some financial flexibility ( a la Evan Longoria) makes sense.

The reality of 10+ year contracts in baseball is this: giving out such long term deals is very difficult to do and forces the team to assume a large amount of risk. At the same time, even though players would love to have so much security, it makes more sense for guys like Mauer, Hernandez, and Lincecum to sign a 5-6 year deal because there's a VERY realistic possibility that if they stay healthy and productive, that there's another big contract down the road.

In this sense though, it would make plenty of sense for the Diamondbacks to lock Upton up for 10+ years. Upton is the future face of the franchise and even though he's unproven, the Diamondbacks best chance to keep him for a long period of time is probably to make a strong commitment to him now before he blows up like Mauer, Hernandez, and Lincecum all have.

Thoughts?

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Jason Bay

There is no doubt in my mind that Jason Bay can be a very productive player. He's proven that time and time again. Since 2004, Bay has hit at least 20 home runs in every season and four times he's hit more than 30 home runs in a season. Bay has developed into a very potent power hitter over the years and a very capable bat in the middle of any order.

What's clear is that Bay is going to get paid...in a big way. However, the amount is very much up in the air. It all depends on how teams view Bay. Is he just a good player or is Bay a potentially great player, who you can build a team around? That question could be the difference between Bay earning the big money or the VERY big money.

The Case for Bay

-I've got the power!

Bay currently ranks 6th in the American League in home runs with 30 and has hit at least 25 home runs five times in his career and has never hit less than 20 home runs in any full season.

-RISP

Bay has been phenomenal this season with runners in scoring position. In 118 at bats with runners in scoring position in 2009, Bay is hitting a ridiculous .331 with 9 home runs, 65 RBI, and more walks (32) than strikeouts (29).

-Middle of the order...

When you think of a productive middle of the order hitter, you think of a guy who can hit with power, drive in runs, and get on base. As we just proved, Bay can hit for power. And you know what, Bay can drive in runs and get on base with the best of them. Bay has driven in 96 runs already this season, which puts him on pace to drive in around 115-120 and he's already drawn 84 walks, which has helped lead to his impressive .383 OBP. Lots of good stuff here.

-Hits both lefties and righties

One of the most fascinating things that I found out about Jason Bay is that his career average against left handed pitchers and right handed pitchers is identical: .279. While that number can be somewhat deceiving, it does confirm the fact that Bay does indeed rake, no matter what arm the pitcher throws with.

The Case against Bay

-defense

According to fangraphs, Bay went from being a average left fielder in 2006, to a pretty bad one in the years that followed. In each of the past three years, Bay's UZR/150 in left has been at least -11.4, which would make him consistently one of the worst everyday left fielders in baseball. In addition, Bay's range seems to be rapidly deteriorating: 3.3 in 2006, -8.9 in 2007, -14.6 in 2008. and -18.5 in 2009. Not good.

-batting average

This is one area that has to concern interested teams. From 2004-2006, Bay never hit lower than .282 in any season and looked like a guy, who might be able to hit .290-.300 perennially. However, from 2007-2009, Bay has only hit above .280 once (2008), and could wind up batting around .250 in 2009. So which is the real Jason Bay that teams can expect? The Jason Bay that hits .280-.290 every season or the Jason Bay that hits a very mediocre .250? How teams answer that question could be the difference in how much money Bay rakes in this offseason.

Competition

Even though there are number of quality free agent corner OFs this season, the only two that really stand out as potential building blocks are Bay and Matt Holliday. However, at this point in the season, it looks like Holliday has separated himself from Bay with his ridiculous play since being traded to St. Louis.

But there are two positive ways for the Bay camp to spin this:

1. Matt Holliday could simply re-sign with the Cardinals, which would open the market up for Bay

2. Matt Holliday and Scott Boras could price themselves out of the market because of Holliday's performance, which could make Jason Bay the attractive, more affordable player.

Elias Ranking: Type A

I expect the Red Sox to offer Bay arbitration...there's no reason why they shouldn't.

(rankings courtesy of MLBTR)

Prediction

(5 years/$75 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:
Manny Ramirez (2 years/$45 million)
Alex Rios (7 years/$69.83 million)
Jose Guillen (3 years/$36 million)
Carlos Lee (6 years/$100 million)
Torii Hunter (5 years/$90 million)

I think Bay will get paid handsomely this offseason, but when you look at the names and contract sizes of the comparable contracts, you have to ask yourself: is Bay really in that class? Aside from Alex Rios and Jose Guillen, I'd have to say no. But make no mistake about it: 5 years and $15 million per season is quite a commitment in this economy.

Thoughts?

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Hypothetically Speaking: Would You Trade Vernon Wells for Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley?

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that the Cubs have decided that they cannot take another year of Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano. They're desperate to get out from under both of these contracts and rid themselves of the headcase that is Milton Bradley. And for hypothetical purposes, let's assume that Soriano wants to get out of Chicago and is willing to waive his full no trade clause.

And luckily for the Cubs, it looks like the Cubs might have found a taker for Soriano and Bradley. The Toronto Blue Jays are desperate to get rid of Vernon Wells and the more than $95 million owed to him through 2014. And for hypothetical purposes, let's assume that Wells is itching to get out of Toronto and revive his sturggling career elsewhere.

So the deal is on the table: Vernon Wells for Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley?

Would you do it? Let's lay out the pros and cons for each side:

Why the Cubs would do it

-Get out from the $90 million owed to Soriano through 2014

-Get out from the $21 million owed to Bradley through 2011

-NO MORE MILTON BRADLEY!

-Free up lots of salary space for 2010 (Wells only makes $12.5 million in 2010)

Why the Blue Jays would do it

-Free themselves from the $86 million owed to Wells from 2011-2014
-acquire two players, who have much more potential than Vernon Wells at this point

-Bradley and Soriano would both benefit from playing in the American League (DH!)
-save money in the long run: Bradley's contract runs out after 2011 and Soriano is owed $18 million in each of the next 5 seasons.

Why the Cubs wouldn't do it

-Who in their right mind would actually want to acquire Vernon Wells' horrible contract?

-Even though this deal might make the Cubs more active in free agency in the short term, how badly would this deal prevent them from signing free agents in the future?

-Soriano is coming off one bad year and should be productive in the future (hopefully)

-Even though Bradley is a moron, he's still more productive and affordable than Wells

Why the Blue Jays wouldn't do it

-Was Soriano's 2009 season simply a fluke? Or is he on the decline?

-Milton Bradley is crazy.

-They'd take on too much salary up front. This trade would add about $15 million to their payroll in 2010 and $7 million to their payroll in 2011.

So I'll ask again: would you make this deal? Does this make sense...?

Thoughts?

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Bobby Abreu

Perhaps no player in baseball has boosted their free agent candidacy like Bobby Abreu. When Abreu was a free agent last season, most teams viewed him as an afterthought. Sure Abreu could hit, but for some reason, there was absolutely no market for Abreu. The strange part is that Abreu actually performed quite well for the Yankees in 2008: he scored 100 runs, hit 20 homers, drove in 100 runs, hit 39 doubles, stole 22 bases, and produced a very respectable .371 OBP.

But despite all that, the best Abreu could do on the open market was a 1 year/$5 million dollar contract with the Angels. Fortunately for the Angels, Abreu has been everything the Angels could have hoped for, and more this season. Abreu has provided the Angels with a consistent presence in the lineup that was left reeling when Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero each missed significant time because of injuries. The Angels offense, in large part because of Abreu, has not missed a beat this season and is a major reason why the Angels are currently in first place in the AL East.

So what does the market have in store for Abreu? Let's take a look:

The Case for Abreu

-He gets on base

Plain and simple: Abreu is an on base machine. Since 1998, Abreu has not posted a OBP lower than .369 and has a career OBP of .404. In recent seasons, it was thought that Abreu was on the decline because his OBP had dipped from around .400 to .370. However, this season his OBP has been on the upswing as it currently stands at .393, which is 11th in the American League.

-Clubhouse presence?

Everyone knows just how valuable Abreu has been to the Angels this season based on his numbers. But what I wasn't aware of was Abreu's impact on the rest of the Angels this season. For more on this, click here. After reading this article, there's no doubt in my mind that Abreu will provide a positive impact in the clubhouse in 2010 and beyond.

-Production!

What team in baseball wouldn't want this type of production from their right fielder?

2007: .283, 16 HR, 101 RBI, 25 SB,
2008: .296, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 22 SB,
2009: 12 HR, 86 RBI, 27 SB, .294

And yes, those are numbers ('07,'08) that Abreu put up during his "decline."

The Case against Abreu

-power decline

Make no mistake about it: Abreu is no longer the 30 HR threat that he was in his heyday. At this stage in his career, Abreu should be good for 15-20 HR a year, but not much more. In previous seasons, Abreu has been a doubles machine, raking between 40-50 doubles every year, but this year Abreu only has 21.

-defense

According to fangraphs, Abreu has been a pretty terrible right fielder this season for the Angels. Abreu's UZR/150 this season is a pathetic -10.1 in large part because of his horrible range, which currently sits at -12.7. But hey, on the bright side, Abreu's UZR/150 is not nearly as bad as it was last year...-25.3.

-Watch out for the wall!

This amazing link just about says it all...Bobby Abreu, hitting a wall?

Competition

Last offseason, there were a number of quality corner outfielders on the market (Milton Bradley, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Manny Ramirez, Garret Anderson, Ken Griffey Jr, etc) . With many teams reluctant to spend the big bucks, it was inevitable that some of these guys did not come away with the money they. Unfortunately for Abreu, he was a casualty of the competition and a very down market.

And once again, it looks like Abreu will be facing steep competition in the corner OF market. Big names like Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon, Vlad Guerrero, (and maybe Jermaine Dye) are all going to be free agents, so once again, the possibility lives that one of these guys will not get their "due."

Elias Ranking: Type A

-It makes lots of sense for the Angels to offer Abreu arbitration: if he accepts, then they have Abreu under contract for 2010 for a reasonable rate ($8-$10 million). And if he leaves, they get 2 high draft picks in return.

(rankings courtesy of MLBTR)

Prediction
(2 years/$22 million with a $14 million dollar option for 2012)

Here are some comparable contracts:

Milton Bradley (3 years/$30 million)
Adam Dunn (2 years/$20 million)
Kosuke Fukudome (4 years/$48 million)
Mike Cuddyer (3 years/$24 million)
Raul Ibanez (3 years/$31.5 million)

I'd be very hesitant to give Abreu a contract for more than 2 years simply because he'll be 36 at the beginning of next season. It would not surprise me to see a team give Abreu a three year contract, but for now, I'll stay conservative. Abreu's agent should focus heavily on the Raul Ibanez contract last year if he wants to position his client for a three year deal as opposed to a two year pact.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent to be Russell Branyan: Out for the Year?

And it looks like Russell Branyan's magical 2009 season has unfortunately come to a close. Injuries suck:

"Wakamatsu said there is a strong possibility that Russell Branyan will not be back this season. Branyan is on the DL with a herniated disc in his back. The team is targeting a mid-month return in hopes he responds to treatment.

Branyan had an epidural Tuesday and supposedly feels better, but nobody can say for sure when he'll be back.

"I think with the bulging disc, there's a strong chance that he won't come back," Wakamatsu said. "Our dialogue has been to shoot for the 15th."

Well that's unfortunate. Branyan has been one of the feel good stories this season by having the best season of his career at age 33. Branyan hit .251 with 31 home runs, 76 RBI, and a .347 OBP.

However, now that it looks like Branyan will miss the entire month of September, how will that effect his free agent candidacy?

On one hand, the injury is obviously a negative. Nobody wants to be injured. If Branyan was healthy, he would have had the opportunity to hit 40 home runs for the first time in his career and the opportunity to potentially raise his batting average. In addition, now Branyan will have to prove to teams during the offseason that he is indeed healthy and that there will be no lingering effects from the injury.

But on the other hand, Branyan's injury will prevent his batting average from dropping any further. Since the all-star break, Branyan has only hit .193, which is a far cry from his .280 batting average before the all-star break. There's a very good chance that Branyan's 2009 batting average could have dipped below .240 if he continued to decline, which would have really hurt his free agent candidacy.

So if Branyan is indeed done for the season, I don't think the injury will hurt his free agent candidacy that much. I predicted that Branyan was in line for a 2 year/$15 million dollar contract a few weeks back, so if anything, I could see Branyan's potential deal coming down into the 2 year/$12 million dollar range.

Thoughts?

Is Luis Castillo "Untradeable"

In Jayson Stark's recent column, he examines the mess that is the New York Mets. Stark declares:

"So the logical solution is: Trade one or two of those stars. Re-stir the mix. And help heal the scars left by three straight seasons that turned out all wrong.

OK, that sounds logical. But now figure out which of those stars to trade. Good luck.

Santana? No way. K-Rod? They just signed him. Luis Castillo? Untradeable."

I completely agree with Stark about Santana and K-Rod, but I take issue with the notion that Castillo in untradeable. I know the Castillo has become a popular whipping boy because of his terrible 2008 season and the famous "dropped ball" at Yankee Stadium this season. But if you look past that, you'll see that Castillo has put together a phenomenal 2009 season.

Here are his 2009 numbers: .308, 1 HR, 34 RBI, .397 OBP, 15 SB

Now say what you want about the horrific 2009 Mets, but the bottom line is this: even though Castillo was surrounded by a supporting cast littered with injured stars, struggling players, and AAAA players; Castillo's performance has been fantastic this season.

So why does Stark think that the soon to be 34 year old Castillo is untradeable? Two words: the contract. GM Omar Minaya signed Castillo to a 4 year/$26 million dollar contract after the Mets' collapse in 2007. The deal seemed excessive at the time because how many GMs would commit to a 32 year old slap happy second baseman for four years? Not many.

But at this point, it's hard to say that Castillo's contract makes him untradeable. He is owed $12 million over the next two years, which is not a horrible by any stretch of the imagination. Is Castillo still somewhat overpaid? Sure, you can say that. But in the right situation, he could be a very valuable piece for a contending team. The Mets might have to pick up some of the tab, but calling Luis Castillo "untradeable" after the season he just put together is unfair.

Thoughts?

How Citi Field Effects the Mets in 2010

Well, one of the least hitter friendly parks in the majors isn't going to get anymore hitter friendly anytime soon. Not in 2010 at least.

Sluggers hoping that the dimensions at cavernous Citi Field will be more home-run friendly in 2010 reportedly are going to be disappointed.

The New York Daily News, citing an unnamed source, reported Thursday that New York Mets general manager Omar Minaya and manager Jerry Manuel recommended no changes be made to Citi Field's dimensions for next season, and the team's owners, the Wilpon family, will abide by that request.

So what does that mean for the Mets as they begin thinking about 2010? It means that no free agent slugger in their right mind would come play for the Mets. Have they seen what Citi Field has done to David Wright's power numbers this season? For God's sake, Gary Sheffield is leading the Mets with 10 home runs and he has not hit a home run since JUNE (note: I'm not counting Francouer here since he did not play the entire year with the Mets).

Matt Holliday to NY? No chance. Jason Bay in orange and blue? Doubt it.

With this news in hand, the Mets need to approach this offseason with a 4 pronged attack:

1. Go after starting pitching on the free agent market

Unlike hitters who get destroyed by Citi Field, a quality pitcher should WANT to play for the Mets. If I was a flyball pitcher, I would clamor to sign with the Mets.

In addition, the Mets cannot count on John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey to be another more than #4 or #5 starters at this point. There are so many questions surrounding those guys that the Mets need to go ahead and fill the other two spots in the rotation behind Johan, thinking that they NEED to go get 2 more very good proven starters.

2. Defense matters

Since Citi Field will remain a pitcher's paradise, it's imperative that Mets get lots of quality defenders. The Mets simply cannot afford to give away runs with shotty defense because of how few runs are scored at Citi Field.

3. Get faster and more athletic

Obviously in a big ballpark, speed will be more valuable than power. It's especially important that the Mets have outfielders, who can cover a ton of ground because Lord knows I can't take another year of watching a Gary Sheffield type run around trying to play a very spacious left field.

4. Trade for a power hitter

Think about it: in order for a power hitting free agent to come to the Mets, the team will have to dramatically overpay him because his stats are bound to go down in the hitter's hell that is Citi Field. The Mets don't want to do that. In addition, I think the Mets would have a tough time convincing any power to come to NY because of how poorly Citi Field has played for hitters.

All of this leads me to the trade market. Even though the Mets don't have a ton of chips to send away, if the team want to add the slugger that it so desperately needs, then this will be the best option.

Thoughts?

Dan Uggla on Hanley Ramirez's $70 Million Dollar Contract (Circa May 2008)

No real signs of jealousy here...right?

"With the new stadium, we kind of figured they're going to make an effort to lock a few guys up," Uggla said. "They're starting with Hanley, and everybody's happy for Hanley. He's set for the rest of his life. Who knows what they're going to do now?

"I think it's a great move. He's going to be one of the best players in the game for a long time. He's a winner. It's really smart on their part."

Interesting.....

Thoughts?

Dan Uggla: What Cha' Bitchin For?

Does Hanley Ramirez not care because he's got a $70 million dollar contract? Crazy as it sounds, Dan Uggla thinks/thought so:

Uggla accused Ramirez of a lack of desire and effort to win. He also said Ramirez wasn't caring because he's already secured a $70 million, six-year contract.

The funniest part about all of this to me is that Ramirez is earning $5.5 million this season and that Uggla is earning $5.35 million. In baseball terms, that amount is negligible.

But I understand how jealously works. With a frugal franchise like the Marlins, long term contracts like the one Ramirez has are almost impossible to come by. Almost any other team in baseball would have locked up Uggla, the only 2nd baseman in history to hit at least 25 home runs in each of his first four seasons, to some kind of team friendly long term contract.

But not the Marlins. Their salary structure simply does not give them the freedom to hand out long term contracts. So it's easy to see why Uggla could/would be jealous of Ramirez and frustrated by the situation. If the Marlins make the playoffs or at least make a big September push, that could mean big money for him during arbitration and perhaps a bigger long term deal with another club in the future.

And the bottom line is this: as long as Uggla continues to produce at the rate he's been producing over the last four years, he's gonna get paid. Uggla almost definitely will get a boost from the $5.35 he earned this year in arbitration and he could very well become a $10 million dollar a year player if he continues to hit (and hopefully improve). Once Uggla becomes a free agent after 2012, he'll be in line to receive his big money deal. No, the deal won't come close to Hanley's, but given Uggla's ability and current stats, it should be something that Uggla is very happy with.

I can't help, but think that the Marlins would be doing themselves (and Uggla) a big favor by trading him to another team after the season. That would give the Marlins more payroll flexilibity, especially with Uggla's salary set to go up because of arbitration, and it would give Uggla a MUCH BETTER chance to get a long term contract before 2012.

Thoughts?

Hypothetically Speaking: Who Ya Building Around?

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that you, yes you, are in charge of starting a professional baseball team from scratch. What CURRENT PLAYER are you going to build around? Take into account the following: age, ability level, position, and intangibles. Let's assume that payroll and player salaries have no impact on the player you choose.

For me personally, if I had the chance to have Albert Pujols on my team, there is no way that I'm passing on that opportunity. The best hitter in the game still has 5-10 great years left in my eyes.

Who would you choose? And why?

Random Afternoon Video: The One With Yogi Berra, Beer, And a Balding Jason Alexander

Ahhh....what a great Yogi-ism. And does anybody notice the guy on Yogi's right???

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter)

Jon Garland Trade: Impact on Free Agency?

As most of us know by now, Jon Garland was dealt from the lowly Diamondbacks to the NL West leading Dodgers two days ago. What I'm most interested in is not how this trade impacts the Dodgers, but instead, how this deal possibly impacts Garland's value on the open market. Let's take a look.

Garland's performance this season with the Diamondbacks has been filled with peaks and valleys. In April and May, Garland was awful and one of the worst pitchers in the National League. But since then, Garland has emerged as an above average starting pitcher and his season stats reflect this: 8-11 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Solid yet unspectacular numbers.

So what does Garland's trade to Los Angeles mean for his pocketbook? Well, all of a sudden, Garland has a fantastic opportunity to position himself for a better contract for 2010 and beyond. Instead of pitching in Arizona where the Diamondbacks are merely playing out the schedule, Garland has the chance to make an impact on a team that could possibly win the NL pennant.

And we've seen pitchers before parlay their postseason success into a big contract. Anyone remember Derek Lowe's contract with the Dodgers after his magical 2004 playoff performance? Or how about Jeff Suppan's contract with the Brewers after pitching the best baseball of his career with the Cardinals in the 2006 playoffs?

I'm not saying that Jon Garland will earn a huge contract this offseason. But what I am saying is now that Garland is a Dodger and will be exposed to pressure packed baseball and national TV audiences, the opportunity is there for him to make that 2 year/$12 million dollar contract turn into a 3 year/$25 million dollar contract...if he plays the best baseball of his life over the next two months.

Jim Thome Trade: Impact on Free Agency?

As most of us know by now, Jim Thome was dealt from the painfully mediocre White Sox to the NL West leading Dodgers two days ago. What I'm most interested in is not how this trade impacts the Dodgers, but instead, how this deal possibly impacts Thome's value on the open market. Let's take a look:

"No way in hell."..."That's a freakin' lie..."

Yes, those are just a few of the possible responses you would have gotten from me if you told me on Sunday that Jim Thome was going to be traded to the National League. I mean, the idea seemed to be stupid on the surface. Thome hasn't played first base consistently since the 2005 season and can't be counted on to be anything more than a DH these days. Sure Thome can still tear the cover off the ball, but it didn't seem logical to move him to the National League.

But not in the eyes of the Dodgers or Ned Colleti. The Dodgers acquired Thome, who is still one of the most feared power hitters in the American League, with no intention of giving him time at first base. Or regular playing time for that matter. That's because the great Jim Thome was going to be reduced to simply pinch hitting where the Dodgers could sit back and hope that one of the best power hitters of the past decade morphs into the second coming of Matt Stairs circa 2008.

So what does Thome's trade to LA mean to his wallet? In my view, probably not much. Even though most players/agents would be pissed to lose a month of consistent playing time when their about to become a free agent, I imagine that Thome will still be fine on the open market. His numbers speak volumes for Thome's consistency and ability.

-hit at least 20 homers in every season besides 2005 since 1994
-driven in at least 90 runs in 9 of the past ten seasons (not including 2008)

When you have a guy with the track record of Jim Thome, I really doubt that a month or two of pinch hitting is going to change anyone's opinion of him on the open market. At this stage in the game, Thome is what he is. Thome has to play in the American League where he can be a productive DH that hits for power, gets on base, and drives in runs.

Unless Thome completely tanks during his VERY LIMITED time (and VERY LIMITED at bats) with the Dodgers, I still see Thome potentially earning between $7-$8 million bucks next season as someone's primary DH.

Thoughts?

Random Afternoon Video: Just Choke Up On The Bat, Mr. Brett!

And now the 7 UP theme song will stay in my head for the next 44323 hours....

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Hank Blalock

If I could sum up Hank Blalock's career so far in a word, there's no doubt that I'd choose disappointing. It's disappointing to see a player of Blalock's ability fail to live up to his potential (in large part because of injuries). You have to remember just how great Blalock's first two seasons were with the Rangers; he tore the cover off the ball and looked like a guy, who could hit 40+ HRs a year and become the Rangers third baseman for at least the next decade.

But then, for some unexplained reason, Blalock's numbers began to decline. Sure his numbers in 2005 and 2006 were still good, but Blalock went from being an elite offensive third baseman to simply being above average.

And then, the injuries hit. Blalock failed to play in more than 65 games in each of the next two seasons and before you know it, Blalock was labeled as injury prone. It's a label that Blalock is still trying to shed today as he attempts to reestablish himself as a consistent presence at the plate? What exactly could Blalock be worth on the open market? Let's take a look:

The Case for Blalock

-power

There are lots of question marks surrounding Blalock these days, but his ability to hit for power is not one of them. In 407 at bats this season, Blalock already has 23 home runs to go along with 18 doubles.

-defense?

For years, Blalock has been ranked by fangraphs as one of the worst defensive third basemen in baseball. Not much appeared to change last season when Blalock moved over to first base, but this season he's been a revelation defensively. Blalock's UZR/150 this season is a a stunning 7.3, which would make him one of the better defensive first basemen in baseball. But is he a treu everyday first baseman? He's only played first base in 53 games this season....

The Case against Blalock

-average

The most concerning part about Blalock's struggle this season has been the massive drop in batting average. Blalock went from hitting .291 last season against RHP to hitting .239 against RHP this season. In addition, in recent seasons Blalock has hit for a respectable average against left handed pitching (.270-.290), but this year, the average has bottomed out to .229 this season. Those are not good signs.

-decline

Make no mistake about it, even though hank Blalock is a name player, he is nothing close to the player he once was. His offensive skills have been on the decline and one has to wonder if he will ever be able to turn it around,

-walk rate

Even in his best seasons, Blalock was never much of a walker. However, this season Blalock's inability to walk is especially concerning. Last season, Blalock walked 19 times in 258 at bats. This season, Blalock has walked 21 times in 407 at bats. Obviously, that ratio is very unproductive especially for a "power hitter." As a result, his OBP has bottomed out this season to .276 and his OPS currently sits at .745. Ouch

Competition

The pool of free agent first basemen is quite deep this offseason. While this group is not top heavy, the reality is that this group is quite similar (Russell Branyan, Aubrey Huff, Adam LaRoche, Nick Johnson, and Blalock). The best thing that Blalock has going for him at this point is his age because he will be only 29 when the 2010 season begins. However you have to remember that Blalock is a relative "newbie" at first base, so his inexperience go against him on the open market.

Prediction
(1 year/$4.5 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:

Russell Branyan (1 year/$1.4 million)
Jason Giambi (1 year/$4 million)

You can say that Blalock is in a category all by himself. Even though Blalock is a young guy, I get the feeling that he is not in a position to receive a long term contract. Blalock still has a ways to go before he's back to his 2003-2004 self, so I can see a team taking a chance on Blalock for a year hoping that he rediscovers his old form.

Given his "potential",ability to play first base, inability to get on base, and low OPS, I'm sure the Royals will go all in to land Blalock.

Thoughts?

(Follow Jorge Says No! on Twitter!)

The Race for Bryce Harper, Week 3

Well another week has passed by, which means that the race for Bryce Harper is heatin' up! What team will lose enough games in 2009, and in turn, receive the privilege to draft one of the most hyped up young talents in the past decade? Let's take a look at the "other important race" going on in baseball, one that has nothing to do with the playoffs or pennants.

1. Washington Nationals

-This team is just too good....at losing. A 2-6 record since last Monday cements the Nationals stronghold on top of the Harper Sweepstakes, but even though the Nationals have a hold on the race right now, they're one winning streak away from potentially being upended.

2. Kansas City Royals, 4.5 games back

-I was pulling for the Royals to make a strong run at Harper...really I was. But then yesterday word came down that GM Dayton Moore was given a four year contract extension for no reason at all. And that was the end of that. If the Royals want to make a run at Harper, they should shut down Zack Greinke for the remainder of the season because this guy is incredible and actually gives the Royals a chance to win when he pitches.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates, 8 games back

-Are the Pirates no longer contenders for Harper? Hard to say. The Pirates schedule down the stretch isn't that overwhelming (Cubs, Reds, Astros, etc.), but they still have seven games left against the first place Dodgers. Can they make up 8 games in September to put themselves in a position for Harper? Doubtful, but keep the hope alive Pittsburgh!

4. Baltimore Orioles, 8 games back

-Are the Orioles no longer contenders for Harper? Not in my eyes. Their next 17 games are all against American League contenders (Yanks, Red Sox, Rangers, Rays) so the potential for a massive tank job is there. But there simply might just be too much talent on this team for that too happen,

5. San Diego Padres, 10.5 games back

-How much longer will it be before the Mets have overtaken the Padres for the #5 spot in the Harper standings? They're only three games back!!!!!!!

Thoughts?