Jorge Says No!

The Most Expensive Bench, Ever.

2010-03-29T11:24:00.000-04:00

In light of the Nationals deciding that Cristian Guzman would not be their starting shortstop (after losing out to the great Ian Desmond), I thought it be worth a look around the majors at the most expensive bench players. Thanks to injuries, poor play, or both, these guys will be starting year doing what many us do best, sitting on the bench:

Mike Lowell, Red Sox, $12 million: It's hard not to feel bad for Lowell. It was only two years ago that he was one of the Red Sox top players and an integral part of their 2007 World Series winning team. But with Adrian Beltre on board, the Red Sox unable to trade him, and Lowell struck by a variety of injuries, there are very few options for Lowell...other than the bench or the DL.

Cristian Guzman, Nationals, $8 million: Like Lowell, Guzman has been hampered by injuries this spring and has been the casualty of the improved play of Ian Desmond. Guzman has been on the decline defensively for years now and his inability to get on-base further diminishes his value.

Gary Matthews Jr., Mets, $11 million: The Angels opted to pick up all but $2 million of Matthews' salary just to get him off their roster. It looks doubtful that Matthews will beat out Angel Pagan to be the Mets' starting center fielder, so look for Matthews to play the role of expensive fourth outfielder until Carlos Beltran gets back.

Eric Chavez, A's, $11 million: I'm thrilled to see Chavez off the DL, but the odds of him being able to contribute as a first baseman are rather slim. Chavez has not been fully healthy since 2006 and expecting Chavez to be anything more than a bench player is a far fetched in my eyes.

Eric Byrnes, Mariners, $11 million: Sure the Mariners are only on the hook for the minimum with Byrnes, but it says something when the low budget Diamondbacks were willing to cut their losses with Byrnes by paying him to play elsewhere.

Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks, $4.75 million: The combination of Miguel Montero's emergence and Snyder's injury plagued 2009 season have Snyder on the outside looking in this season on the Diamondbacks' depth chart. I'd expect the Diamondbacks to continue to search for a landing spot for Snyder throughout the season, but then again, Snyder is a nice asset to hash away.

The total for those six players is $57.75 million dollars. To put that in perspective, that total is more than the Pirates, Marlins, and Padres individual payrolls.

Does this article actually mean anything constructive? Not really. The point is this, as much as we like to think that GMs are getting smarter and wiser with their spending, teams are still paying the price for bad contracts past.

David Ortiz: Tennis Star

2010-03-29T09:17:00.000-04:00

It's been awhile since anything Rosenthal has written has made me laugh out loud. Well, this nugget did...in a good way:

"Look out, Roger Federer: David Ortiz said he played tennis for the first time in his life on Saturday, volleying with his wife, Tiffany. For what it’s worth, Ortiz said he exceeded his wife’s expectations, but needs work on his serve."

Any chance Papi spits on his hands before he serves?

Armando Benitez and Edgardo Alfonzo Back Together Again

2010-03-26T13:06:00.002-04:00

Rejoice, fellow Mets fans! It's 2000 all over again....

...sort of...

"The Newark Bears announced today the signing of pitcher Armando Benitez and infielder Edgardo Alfonzo to the 2010 roster. Benitez and Alfonzo were teammates for the 2000 New York Mets.  

“I am excited to add to the Bears tradition. Two more established Major Leaguers, Edgardo and Armando were both key components to the Mets success in 2000,” said Manager Tim Raines. “They are both proven talents on the field and their leadership in the clubhouse is the perfect fit for our 2010 team.”

Edgardo enters his third season in the Atlantic League, having spent time with the Long Island Ducks and Bridgeport Bluefish. He played last season in Japan as a member of the Yomiuri Giants. The 36-year-old and former Mets star returns to New York after spending eight seasons in Flushing and has spent time with three other clubs (Giants, Angels, Blue Jays).

---snip----

Benitez enters his second season in the Atlantic League as he spent 2009 with the Bears. He recorded a 1-0 record with a 2.86 ERA and 16 saves, which was third best in the league. The 37-year-old and former Met was signed by the Houston Astros’ AAA affiliate in Round Rock late in the season and went 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA and a save in seven games."

It's hard to believe that both of them are still around, but the presence of Fonzie and Armando will absolutely give me a good excuse to check out the Bears this season. Ahhh, the good 'ole days.

Any chance the Bears can sign Jay Payton and Timo Perez as well? Let's make this a 2000 Mets reunion!

Make it happen!

Introducing MLBFreeagency.com

2010-03-25T11:05:00.003-04:00

Friends,

After almost two years of blogging on Jorge Says No!, I have decided to start a new venture in the baseball blogging world.

Effective immediately, I will begin blogging anew at my new website, www.MLBfreeagency.com. Thanks to the wonderful people at the bloguin network, the new site has been developed very quickly, looks sharp (I think), and I believe we have a strong blueprint for success.

The purpose of this new site is simple: to cover free agency to the best of my ability and begin a discussion with baseball fans that will last throughout the season, into the winter, and hopefully into next year's free agency and beyond. I encourage you to check out the posts pages and let me know what you think of the site's organization, layout, etc.

Honestly, the more feedback, the better. Email me anytime!

************ ************

I'm happy to report that Jorge Says No! will remain. This site has blossomed into something that I never expected it to be and I am thrilled to watch the site continually grow. I am working on a fresh batch of content for Jorge Says No!, which will be up next week. I don't expect to post anything until then, but stranger things have happened.

Thank you for your continued support of Jorge Says No!

************ ************

And finally, here are some ways to keep in touch with MLBfreeagency.com!

TWITTER: @mlbfreeagency (FOLLOW US!)

FACEBOOK:http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/MLBfreeagency/104863969546245?v=info&ref=ts (FRIEND US!)...search mlbfreeagency

EMAIL: mlbfreeagency@gmail.com

Please visit the site often and leave some comments! Once again, thank you for all your support.

All my best,

Jorge Says No!

Quote of the Day: Jim Callis on Joe Mauer

2010-03-18T12:23:00.000-04:00

Via ESPN.com chat:

Jason (St. Louis)

It sure seems more and more likely Mauer hits FA. If the Red Sox and Yanks get in to a bidding war on him, what potentially do you think he could end up signing for? Is 8 years 225 mil outside the realm of possibility?

Jim Callis

Not outside the realm of possibility if he becomes a free agent, but I still think he resigns with the Twins.

Now I'll pose the question: would you commit $200+ million to a catcher?

I wouldn't. I don't care how good he is or if his name is Joe Mauer, the risk is simply too high at that price.

Joe Mauer is a Gambler

2010-03-18T10:45:00.000-04:00

So says Sid Hartman:

So you wonder if reigning American League MVP Joe Mauer and his agent, Ron Shapiro, are concerned about the consequences of Mauer suffering a serious injury should the former Cretin-Derham Hall all-around athlete choose to not re-sign with the Twins this year and become a free agent at the end of this season. If Mauer did suffer a serious injury, the market certainly wouldn't be what it is today.

Mauer has missed a total of 120 games because of various injuries out of the 974 regular-season games the Twins have played since he joined the team in 2004.

He missed 69 games in 2004 because of a torn meniscus in his left knee after being injured in April. Mauer was healthy in 2005 and 2006, when he played in 131 and 140 games, respectively.

However, the 26-year-old All-Star catcher missed 29 games in 2007 because of a strained left quadriceps muscle suffered in May. After playing in 146 games in 2008, he missed all of spring training and 22 games into the 2009 season because of an inflammation of the right sacroiliac joint.

But if Mauer happened to get seriously hurt before signing, the big-money, long-term offers would disappear. The Yankees and Red Sox haven't thrown money around like they have in the past. Those two clubs would likely be the most interested in signing Mauer to a big contract.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

If Mauer signs an extension with the Twins before the season begins, then he will surely be giving up money on the open market (in theory) in return for security.

If Mauer holds off on the extension with the Twins until after the season, then people, like Sid Hartman, will scrutinize the decision because Mauer is only one injury away from losing big money.

Being a catcher in the majors is a huge injury risk, but my advice to Mauer is this: do what your comfortable with and don't play the what if game. Because in the end, asking what if will drive a person nuts.

Especially when we're talking about a nine figure payday.

The Yankees Make an Appearence in the Joe Mauer Negotiations

2010-03-17T12:30:00.000-04:00

We'll call this a brief cameo, thanks to Bill Madden:

Like everyone else in baseball, the Yankee high command is watching with keen interest how the Joe Mauer negotiations with the Minnesota Twins play out this spring.
Unlike most other teams, however, the Yankees have both the financial resources to afford the MVP catcher as well as the surplus of talent it would take to acquire him should the contract talks reach an impasse and the Twins elect to put him on the trade market. Indeed, if there is one area where the Yankees are rich in prospects it is catching where Jesus Montero and Austin Romine are rated by most scouts as can't-miss major leaguers. The question is, which of them - if either - will be the one to succeed Jorge Posada.
--snip----
"But in my opinion," said one scout, "the next catcher for the Yankees will be Joe Mauer. Imagine if the Twins don't sign him and he goes out there on the market next winter with both the Yankees and Red Sox in need of a catcher? That will be the wildest bidding war in baseball history, and don't think his agent doesn't know it. And if they (Twins) decide to trade him, the Yankees have the better pieces to get him."

I still can't believe it will ever come to that. With their new taxpayer-funded, open air Target Field (on which they refused to spend the extra $150 mil to equip with a retractable roof), the Twins cannot afford to let their hometown catcher leave - and yet there have been some unsettling rumblings out of Minneapolis and Fort Myers that the two sides remain far apart with an opening day deadline looming.

This story proves that the news week is slow. If someone can explain to me why the Twins would ever trade Mauer, please let me know. As far as I'm concerned, the mere thought of trading Joe Mauer this season is crazy. Even if the Twins and Mauer cannot come to terms on a deal by the "deadline," the Twins have a new stadium opening this year and trading away the top draw would not be a good business move. Also, the Twins (even without Joe Nathan) are pretty good team on paper.

The Mauer to the Yankees dream will live on until a long term deal with the Twins proves otherwise, but I'd be willing to bet anything that the Twins will never, ever trade Mauer.

Carlos Pena's Love for Tampa

2010-03-16T11:00:00.000-04:00

Once again, Carlos Pena professes his love for the Rays and his desire to stay there long term. I never expected to see anyone express a strong desire to stay with the Rays long term, but wow have times changed:

Pena carries that mentality everywhere. So don't ask him if he is worried about his 0-for-18 start to Spring Training after missing the final 25 games of the 2009 season, or if he finds himself thinking about the fact that his three-year contract with the Rays expires after the season.
He doesn't.
Sure, most players will say they don't think about upcoming free agency because it's the right thing to say. But Pena absolutely lives it.
He said he never really speaks to his agent, hardball negotiator Scott Boras, about his talks with the Rays, nor does he care to hear from Boras about it.
As of now, Pena said, "nothing has really happened" in terms of a possible deal, but he wouldn't mind coming to terms on an extension during the season, because he would love nothing more than to stay with Tampa Bay.
"I think everyone knows how much I like it here, how much I appreciate this place," said Pena, who's making $10.125 million this season. "So it's one of those things I know that I cannot control, because I'm not the one in the driver's seat there. But I know what I can control -- that's be prepared, do my exercises so I can stay healthy, make sure I'm present so I can enjoy my teammates.

Somewhere in his agent headquarters, Scott Boras is probably pulling his hair out. Boras is notorious for trying to get as much money for his guys as possible, but if Pena is serious about returning to the Rays long term, then there is almost zero chance that Pena will maximize his earning potential.

But then again, this could set up an interesting sub plot. Will Boras be able to use Pena's love of Tampa as a bargaining tool with other teams? Essentially, will he be able to say to teams, "Look, Carlos loves it in Tampa and if you want to sign him, then you're going to have to pay a premium for him services." Or something to that extent.

It seems as though that the only way for Pena to maximize his value on the open market next winter is to play the field, move on from Tampa, and let Boras work his magic. But then again, Pena's priorities seem to be all about comfort and if that's the case, then his mind is probably already made up about where he would like to play in 2011 and beyond. The question then becomes if the Rays can afford to keep him.

Line of the Day: The Struggles of Ben Sheets

2010-03-15T18:15:00.000-04:00

Ugly line from Ben Sheets today:

0.0 IP, 8 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 1 BB, 1 HR

Yikes.

Despite his poor performance, Sheets's optimistic approach reminds us all that this is spring training:

"I felt great," said Sheets, who missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery. ... Today was a good day, and I felt like I was going to get in some good work."

It's refreshing to hear Sheets talk so optimistically, but results like this, spring training or not, are just ugly. It remains to be seen what kind of pitcher Ben Sheets can be over the course of an entire season and because he is a free agent after the season, there is plenty riding on his 2010 performance.

Heath Bell's Hometown Discount

2010-03-15T11:58:00.000-04:00

Padres closer Heath Bell will not be a free agent until after the 2011 season, but that doesn't stop folks from questioning Bell's future with the Padres. Will Bell stay in San Diego long term or will his rising salary force the Padres to eventually trade him? Common sense would suggest the latter, but Bell is willing to take less to stay in San Diego:

As for Bell, the Padres encouraged trade offers on him last summer and last offseason. Then they kept him and signed him for $4 million. Bell would have more trade value now if Padres upper-level executives had OK'd the terms that then-GM Kevin Towers and Bell's agent had agreed to in the 2008-09 offseason. According to Bell, that pact would've guaranteed him $1.2 million in 2009 and $2.1 million this year. "I like the number 21 and wanted those numbers -- 1.2 and 2.1," said Bell, who wears 21.

When the club deemed the deal too risky, Bell signed for one year and put up enough numbers to raise his salary to $4 million. He said escalators in the scuttled deal would've bumped his 2010 salary to $3 million.

Bell said he'd be agreeable to signing an extension that is budget friendly for the Padres.

This all sounds great on the surface. Bell wants to stay in San Diego and he is willing to take less money to do so. However, given that the Padres have a $40 million dollar payroll and that closers of Bell's quality make around $8 million or so annually (roughly), what are the odds that they are willing to commit somewhere in the $6-$8 million dollar range long term for a closer? Slim to none? None?

Because of their financial limitations, it might be economically impossible for the Padres to keep Bell even if he is willing to take less.

David Ortiz's Future with the Red Sox

2010-03-15T10:33:00.000-04:00

When you think about the Red Sox from 2003-2009, the image of David Ortiz immediately comes to mind. Big Papi has been the face of the Red Sox since he burst onto the scene in 2003, but will 2010 be Ortiz's final season with the Sawx? You be the judge:

Ortiz is tight-lipped when asked if there is anything that might be weighing on him. The most obvious potential source of discontent is his contract situation: The Red Sox hold an option on the 2011 season for $12.5 million.
Ortiz said he has had no conversations with the club regarding his contract.
"I'm just focusing on playing, not being a distraction about anything,'' he said. "It's going to be up to them to come talk to me. So I'm getting prepared to play.''

Given how poorly Ortiz played last season, there is no reason for the Red Sox to approach Ortiz about a new deal or extension at this point. The bottom line is that no matter how much Ortiz has meant to the Red Sox since 2003, he has plenty to prove to the Red Sox in 2010. If Ortiz shows that his 2009 season was not a fluke, then the Red Sox will simply let Ortiz go and go in another direction at DH.

But where this gets interesting is if Ortiz puts together a solid 2010 season. Let's say Ortiz hits .265 with 30 home runs and drives in over 100 with a .380 OBP. Would the Red Sox pick up his option then? Economically, it might not be the best decision, but could Ortiz make the Red Sox decision difficult with a solid season? No doubt. But in the end, $12.5 million is a lot to commit to a 35 year old designated hitter even one as popular and lovable as David Ortiz.

The Future of Cristian Guzman

2010-03-15T08:49:00.000-04:00

As Ian Desmond continues to make his case to be the Nationals starting shortstop, one has to wonder where this would leave free agent to be Cristian Guzman. The Nationals know that Guzman has lost a step defensively and is not going to be a long term asset for the franchise, so it makes sense for the Nationals to give Desmond a look...as long as the Nationals think he's ready. What's clear is that if Guzman wants another hefty payday, then he needs to have the chance to start, not come off the bench:

On Sunday morning, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo told the Washington Post’s Adam Kilgore, “Money has nothing to do with who’s going to play.”

But later that day, Rizzo balked when I asked him about the possibility of releasing Cristian Guzman if Ian Desmond won the shortstop job.

Guzman is guaranteed $8 million this season.

“He’s still a long way from that type of discussion,” Rizzo said. “He’s a .300 hitter. He can still play short. He’s not an old player by any means.”

Guzman, who turns 32 on Sunday, is not a .300 hitter — his career batting/on-base/slugging line is .271/.307/.386. He also is coming off arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder.

Desmond, 24, batted .280-.318-.561 last September in 89 plate appearances. While that sample is small, he has resumed his standout play this spring.

Would the Nationals make Guzman an $8 million backup? Possibly. More likely, they would give Guzman one more chance and return Desmond to Triple A. If Guzman faltered, the Nats then could release him.

Classic GM double speak from Rizzo. From the statements above, it's clear to me that he wants to start Ian Desmond at short, but having Guzman on the roster complicates things. Rizzo is publically talking up Guzman for a number of different reasons. Perhaps Rizzo wants to convince the fan base that Guzman is still a good option at short or perhaps Rizzo wants to exclaim Guzman's credentials to see if he can find a taker for his services.

The best thing that can happen for Guzman is that he gets the opportunity to play everyday. Yes Guzman will be 33 once the 2011 season gets underway, but the class of free agent shortstops in very weak (aside from Derek Jeter, who will be a Yankee anyway). Conceivably, if Guzman is able to put together a solid 2010 season and demonstrates improved defensive skills, then I don't think it's unreasonable for Guzman to land a multi year deal.

There is so much that can change between now and then, but it's too early to discount Cristian Guzman given the advantageous situation he could find himself next year on the free agent market.

Random Chatter: Joe Mauer to Boston?

2010-03-14T14:11:00.000-04:00

That's is everything doesn't pan out with the Twins of course....

“In the end, I think the Twins sign him,’’ said a National League assistant general manager. “If they don’t, my bet is Boston. First of all, there’ll be a limited market. Two or three teams? One of them will be the Yankees, but if you know Mauer, he’d pick Boston over New York.’’

“If he doesn’t sign and he becomes a free agent, it favors Boston,’’ seconded an American League GM.

Given that the odds of Mauer leaving Minnesota are relatively small, take these quotes with a grain of salt. But then again, these quotes do offer some slim hope to Red Sox fans...right?

Bad News for Brandon Webb

2010-03-12T14:02:00.000-05:00

Setbacks are always frustrating especially when they come in a player's contract year. Tough break for Brandon Webb, who is set to be a free agent after the season:

Diamondbacks ace Brandon Webb is almost certain to open the season on the disabled list, multiple sources said Friday, and the team is now examining at least one way to increase its rotation depth.

In time, Webb needs to prove that he is healthy, but until he is able to do that, I see the dollar signs decreasing and the amount of risk that teams are willing to take on Webb diminishing.

Hal Steinbrenner Confirms What We Already Know

2010-03-10T13:20:00.000-05:00

Nearly a month ago, Brian Cashman declared that there will be no talks with either Derek Jeter or Mariano Rivera regarding contract extensions:

When Brian Cashman looks at Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Joe Girardi, the Yankees GM paints his shortstop, closer and manager with the same brush.
And with spring training opening next week in Tampa, Cashman has no plans to stray from his plan of not negotiating with them. All three contracts are in the final year.
“I don’t think you can separate one from the other,” Cashman explained. “I am not saying they are the same, but the questions will come, ‘If you did one, why didn’t you do the other?’ If this was Kansas City, it would be different — but it’s not.”

And yesterday, Chairman Hal Steinbrenner reiterated that point:

"Everybody does business in a different way," the team's managing general partner said Tuesday following a news conference to announce details of the first Pinstripe Bowl at new Yankee Stadium, "I just don't believe in contract extensions, and that's throughout the organization, no matter who it is. Hopefully nobody takes that personally. It's just business."
Jeter's $189 million, 10-year contract expires after the World Series, as does Rivera's $45 million, three-year deal. Girardi is entering the final season of a $7.8 million, three-year contract.

"I've got a great relationship with them all," Steinbrenner said. "I've expressed to all of them that, `You're part of the Yankee family and you're wanted. It wouldn't be the same without you.' But as far as no extensions, it's a business policy of mine."

This is obviously big news in Yankee land because Jeter and Rivera will be free agents at the end of the season, but I don't think there is a baseball fan out there that seriously thinks that either guy will leave the Bronx. The fact that Jeter and Rivera are not under contract with the Yankees beyond this season means that this story will have legs all season, which is unfortunate given how unlikely it is that either guy will leave.

Jose Reyes has a Thyroid Problem...Maybe

2010-03-10T11:46:00.003-05:00

The Mets say yes. Reyes says no. Who to believe?

Mets:

Jose Reyes has an overactive thyroid. The Mets said late Tuesday that tests administered in New York on Monday confirmed the original diagnosis. The club said little else except that Reyes is to remain in New York for additional blood tests, which will determine how he is treated. The results of those tests are not expected before Thursday.

Reyes:

But Reyes told ESPNDeportes.com's Enrique Rojas later Tuesday: "The specialists who took care of me in New York have told me that I'm fine and that there's nothing wrong with my thyroid. The test [taken to follow one conducted during his physical] showed that I'm fine. We just have to wait for the results of the additional test. The [doctors] found inflammation in my throat and no medicine to treat the thyroid or any other condition has been prescribed."

2010 was supposed to be the year where Reyes showed all of his doubters that he was healthy. Even though he rarely missed games from 2006-2008, the injury prone label has never fully escaped Reyes especially after missing most of the 2009 season.

We have talked in the past about the 2011 team option facing Reyes ($9 million) and I remain confident that the Mets will pick up the option. However, if the thyroid condition pops up at any point in the season, it could sound the alarm for the Mets especially if Reyes is struggling.

We'll see how this thyroid issue effects Reyes moving forward, but there is no doubt that until he proves his detractors wrong, this will be another issue facing Reyes. There was a time where I seriously believed that Reyes was sure to land a contract exceeding $100 million when he became a free agent after 2011 (assuming the Mets picked up his option after the 2010 season), but after missing most of 2009 and now the thyroid issue, that claim is now filled with tons of doubt.

It's a Slow Recovery for Brandon Webb

2010-03-08T12:30:00.000-05:00

After weeks of positive reviews, free agent to be Brandon Webb has experienced a set back:

Webb initially was going to throw to hitters Sunday or Monday, but that session was pushed back a couple of days. Manager A.J. Hinch said Webb might throw a bullpen session next instead of live batting practice, but did not set a date.
"He's not feeling bad, but he's not feeling strong," Hinch said. "It's not necessarily that unexpected. He is seven months post-surgery and these things get a little testy from time to time."
Webb, coming off shoulder surgery in August, was unavailable for comment before the Diamondbacks faced the Colorado Rockies in a split-squad game. But the 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner sent word through a team spokesman that he felt fine after playing catch.
Hinch has said Webb could pitch in his first spring game around the middle of the month. But Webb, who made only one start in 2009, likely will need to throw at least a couple more times before making his first start.
"He's not having trouble being on the mound," Hinch said. "He's not having trouble every time he throws a baseball like he did last season. He's in a little bit of a dead period in his rehab program that we're trying to get him past before we move him on."

Webb is so important to the 2010 Diamondbacks that the team has no reason to push him hard right now. Patience is the key word. As Webb looks forward towards free agency, teams might shy away from him if he spends considerable time on the DL, but Webb needs to do everything possible to perform at a high level for an extended period of time this season.

Even though thr 2010 season has yet to officially begin, doubts are growing about Webb's ability to land a multi year contract this winter. I hope he proves me wrong, but only time will tell.

Line of the Day: The Struggles of Jeremy Bonderman

2010-03-08T11:45:00.000-05:00

Not such a good start yesterday from free agent to be Jeremy Bonderman, who will be a free agent after the season:

0.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2 HR

I don't want to make too big of a deal about one spring training performance, but considering that Bonderman's last good season was 2006 and his last full season in the majors was 2007, this is not a good sign. Hopefully this is just a bump in the road for Bonderman, but keep in mind that Bonderman is only 27 years old.

Red Sox Optimistic About Beckett Talks?

2010-03-08T11:15:00.000-05:00

According to Nick Cafardo, the contact talks seem to be progressing:

4. Josh Beckett, RHP, Red Sox - One major league source indicated that there’s more optimism about the Sox and Beckett reaching a contract accord this season. It seems talks have been amicable, if not productive. The Sox could insist on medical language similar to what’s included in the deals of John Lackey and J.D. Drew. Jason Bay wouldn’t bite on the language, but Beckett may consider it just to stay in Boston, where he has already forged a great relationship with Lackey and continues to build one with Jon Lester.

Sox fans, before you get excited about the prospect of keeping Beckett around long term, remember this: Beckett has previously said that he does not want to negotiate during the season so if the Sox and Beckett are going to come to terms on a new deal, then it will have to happen in the next three weeks.

That's not an impossible task, but I have my doubts that the Red Sox and Beckett will come to terms before the season begins.

Can the Brewers Keep Prince Fielder in Milwaukee Past 2011?

2010-03-08T10:00:00.000-05:00

Can the Brewers keep Prince Fielder past 2011? Doug Melvin thinks so, but the debate lingers on:

So is it possible to pay Fielder what the market might bear in two years, thereby allocating a disproportionate chunk of a small-market team's payroll to one player?

"It's possible," said Melvin, noting that other teams have done it. "But it's challenging."

Then he reiterated what the Brewers have been saying for the last few weeks. "Our goal is to keep Prince here," Melvin said.

Melvin can talk optimistically about keeping Prince in Milwaukee, but the fact remains that if Prince wants to maximize his earning potential, then the Brewers will have a tough time keeping him. ESPN's Buster Olney outlined Prince's future in Milwaukee a few weeks back, and while he sounds more optimistic about the Brewers keeping Prince long term than most writers have been, I still think the odds of Prince staying in Milwaukee are slim.

You have to think that the Brewers will have to commit almost $20 million annually to Prince, which is a major issue when the Brewers payroll will likely remain in the $80-$90 million dollar range in the future. Can the Brewers afford to spend $20 million annually on one player and still expect to compete? I think not, but then again, they are spending $17 million this season on Dave Riske and Jeff Suppan, so what do I know.

The Future of Derrek Lee

2010-03-01T10:30:00.000-05:00

Will 2010 be the last season for Derrek Lee as a Cub? Perhaps, but it looks like there is mutual interest on both sides:

The last time Derrek Lee was up for a new contract, he signed a five-year extension at the outset of the 2006 season and suffered a season-changing wrist injury a couple of weeks later.

Now Lee is in no hurry to get a deal done before he enters his second "walk" year as a member of the Cubs, confident he'll put up the kind of numbers that will make him a coveted free agent in November.

Lee wants to end his career as a Cub, and the Cubs want him back.

But there will be no negotiations this spring and probably not any during the season. Unlike last time, there's no guarantee Lee will be back.

"I'd like to (retire as a Cub), but if it doesn't happen, I understand that also," Lee said. "It's really not a big issue."

Lee is a fan favorite in Chicago and has been one of the top players for the Cubs since his arrival in 2004, but the Cubs are making a smart choice in holding off negotiations with their first baseman. Even though Lee put together a phenomenal 2009 season at the dish, their are a number of factors that suggest that the Cubs should take negotiations slow with Lee.

1. age
-Lee will be 35 in September and the Cubs need to be completely assured that his skills are not declining before they re-commit to him

2. power
-After breaking his wrist in 2006, Lee's power numbers took a hit in both 2007 and 2008 as he failed to hit more than 22 home runs. Lee bounced back nicely in 2009 by hitting 35 home runs, but the Cubs need to make sure that his power is back for sure before giving him another lucrative extension.

3. Options
-There are a number of quality free agent first base options out there this winter so if the Cubs lose Lee, then there are a number of players who they can go after to fill the void. Even though Lee is a fan favorite in Chicago, he is replaceable should his price tag become too high for the Cubs liking.

2010 is an Important Year for Kevin Correia

2010-03-01T09:00:00.000-05:00

2010 is a big year for free agent to be Kevin Correia. And he knows it:

“I want to repeat and improve on what I did last season,” the right-handed starter said Saturday.
If he does, the 29-year-old native San Diegan could be sitting pretty this time next spring.

Correia is a free agent at the end of this season.

After going 12-11 last year with a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts, Correia got $3.6 million from the Padres for this season — the sides settling in lieu of arbitration.

But when the 2010 season ends, the Padres hold no options on Correia. He is free to sign with anyone.

“Yes, this is an important year,” Correia said. “But every year is like that. What’s good about this year is that I have last season to build from. It’s given me some momentum.”

Ultimately if Correia is able to repeat his 2009 performance, then it's doubtful he will be back with the cash strapped Padres. One factor that is working against Correia is that the class of free agent starting pitchers is very strong and features a number of big names and high upside pitchers. If Correia is going to land a lucrative multi year deal and avoid Todd Wellemeyer territory, then he needs to put together a big 2010 season that proves that he is not just a one year wonder and continue to show that he can pitch effectively away from PETCO Park.

The 2010 Royals

2010-03-01T01:24:00.000-05:00

With the baseball season right around the corner, anything is possible. Spring means a new beginning and renewed optimism for beleaguered and tortured franchises. Hell, even the Royals think they can win a World Series right now!

But the odds are that the Royals will not win the World Series. Why? Because their talent is vastly inferior to other teams in the AL Central and in the American League in general. Let's face it, if your going to get involved in sports betting and put all your money down on the Royals winning the World Series, then you might want to get your head examined. This team has BOTH Kyle Farnsworth and Jose Guillen!

There are those who believe that hey, if the Royals get a few lucky bounces and some things go their way, then maybe they can be baseball's version of the New Orleans Saints. The Saints shocked the football world by winning the Super Bowl behind Drew Brees even though most experts counted them out at the beginning of the season. And on a side note, my buddy Joe loves football betting and made a killing on the Saints this season. Who Dat!

As much as I want to believe that the 2010 Royals can do the impossible, there are simply too many harsh realities for this team to face. On paper, they stink. And even with the best case scenario for the 2010 Royals, the outlook is rather bleak.

2010 Preview

2010-02-28T18:11:00.003-05:00

While all the recent talk around MLB centers on Mark McGwire and steroids, it’s easy to forget that Spring Training is creeping up.

Cactus League play begins on March 3 and Grapefruit League starts a day before that.

This is a good time to look at the future baseball odds to win World Series that sportsbook currently have posted.

New York Yankees

When we last left MLB, the New York Yankees were hoisting their 27th World Series title.

The “Evil Empire” will enter the 2010 season as defending champions and as a matter of fact, the Yanks are odds-on favorites to repeat at +300.

The Bronx Bombers’ roster will look a little different going into the season as 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui migrated west to the Los Angeles Angels and his place in the lineup, as it stands, will be taken by Nick Johnson, according to an mlb.com report.

The Pinstripes re-signed southpaw Andy Pettitte to a one-year deal and dealt outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitchers Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino along with some cash to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for righty Javier Vazquez and lefty Boone Logan, who was subsequently signed for one year.

In Vazquez’s last 16 starts last season, the Braves went 12-4.

Philadelphia Phillies

On first glance, the fact that the Phillies traded away pitcher Cliff Lee to Seattle doesn’t make sense, as Lee went 13-4 (including the playoffs) after joining the Phillies from Cleveland in late-July.

In the postseason Lee went 4-0 with an ERA of 1.56 and he was on the mound for both of
Philadelphia’s World Series victories.

But when you factor in that Philadelphia added Roy Halladay to its rotation, there is logic behind the Lee deal.

Doc Halladay started 32 games for the Toronto Blue Jays last year and had a record of 17-10 with an ERA of 2.79 and will be a welcome addition to the Phillies’ pitching staff.

Philly is listed at +600 to win this year’s World Series and if it does, it would be its second title in three years.

New York Mets

The New York Mets fell well short of expectations last season, finishing with a record of 70-92 so there was a need to bolster the roster with the 2010 season approaching.

While the Yankees are the ones that usually make the big splashes in free agency, the Mets one-upped their cross-town rivals this offseason, in terms of big-name signings, when they inked former Boston Red Sox leftfielder Jason Bay to a four-year deal.

The Mets are hoping that Bay will be a big piece of the puzzle in their pursuit of the NL East title and hopefully, a World Series.

The Metropolitans are listed at +1900 to win it all in 2010.

Seattle Mariners

Despite not making the playoffs last year, the Seattle Mariners still had a relatively successful season, going 85-77.

If its offseason is any indication of how its regular season will be, Seattle should make the playoffs or better.

As mentioned, the club traded for Philly’s playoff ace Cliff Lee and it did a number of other things to improve.

The Mariners plucked 3B Chone Figgins away from the division rival Los Angeles Angels; re-signed Ken Griffey Jr. to a one-year deal and extended young ace Felix Hernandez’s deal by five years.

The only move that can be considered something of a head-scratcher is the trade for volatile Chicago Cubs outfielder Milton Bradley.

Seattle is listed at +1600 to win the World Series in MLB futures betting.

Spring Training will be starting up again soon and shortly after that, the start of another MLB season.

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Josh Beckett and the Red Sox Probably Won't Negotiate During the Season

2010-02-26T11:27:00.000-05:00

So says Beckett:

Speaking on CSNNE’s “SportsNet Central” Thursday night, Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett said he would most likely not negotiate a new contract with the Red Sox during the 2010 season, saying “Probably not,” when asked if he would participate in any in-season talks.
Beckett had said during a press conference Sunday at the Red Sox’ minor league training facility that he and the Red Sox had “talked about talking” regarding a new deal. The pitcher’s current contract runs out at the end of the 2010 season.

During the appearance, Beckett also said regarding his contract status, “It’s really not in my control. I don’t really have an answer right now, I don’t really want to think about it. I think for me, my focus is really just being on coming into camp, getting ready for the long season and preparing myself the best I can.”

So this gives the Red Sox roughly a month to get a new deal done with Beckett or risk having Beckett hit the free agent market this winter. Does anyone actually think this deal has a chance to get done before April rolls around? I'm doubtful. If Beckett signs now, he surely will land a lucrative contract, but if he delivers a stellar 2010 season, then he could land a really lucrative contract. Unless Beckett has a strong desire to stay in Boston, I'd gamble on his abilities and play the year out and plan on becoming a free agent after the season.

More Good News for Brandon Webb

2010-02-26T10:20:00.000-05:00

Just a few weeks after throwing off a mound for the first time, Brandon Webb threw 45 pitches yesterday in a bullpen session:

It was only a bullpen session, but the 45 pitches Brandon Webb threw on Thursday morning had the D-backs feeling good.
"I feel like every time I'm getting somewhere," Webb said. "So eventually I'm going to get to where I need to be. Today was by far the best day. It's just going to be a process."
The 45 pitches were the most he has thrown off the mound in any of his six bullpen sessions since he began throwing again last month.
For the first time since shoulder surgery in August, Webb threw changeups from the mound. The session also marked the first time Webb worked from the stretch.
While his shoulder has been good for Webb during his bullpen sessions, he has struggled to get his mechanics and release point where he wants them. In that regard, Thursday's session was a big step forward.

This is big news for Webb who missed almost all of the 2009 season because of arm problems. Webb will be a free agent after the season and it will be interesting to see what kind of contract he can command on the open market. This is undoubtedly a positive step but the real test will come when the season starts to see if Webb is still the front line starting pitcher he was previously.

Rays and Carl Crawford Scrap Contract Talks Until the End of the Season

2010-02-26T09:24:00.000-05:00

No surprise here given the economics of the situation:

“We had an opportunity to exchange ideas with the club about a contract extension for Carl and it was clear to all of us that an immediate agreement was not going to materialize,’’ agent Brian Peters told the St. Petersburg Times this afternoon. “Thus, we all agreed to table discussions until the end of the year. We’d like to minimize distractions for Carl and the club and keep the focus on baseball, so we don’t plan to comment upon Carl’s contract status again until after the season.”

All signs continue to point towards 2010 being Crawford's final season in Tampa, which means (barring something unforeseen) he's bound for a huge long term contract this winter.

Adam Dunn is Focusing on Defense

2010-02-25T14:50:00.002-05:00

The Nationals slugging first baseball has been known as one of the biggest defensive liabilities in baseball throughout this career (mostly as a left fielder), but it appears that Dunn is making a strong effort to make himself a quality first baseman. Take it away, Mark Zuckerman:

Adam Dunn has been doing extensive defensive work at first base the last week with Tim Foli and Pat Listach. Listening to Dunn talk about it today, it's clear he's committed to making serious strides at a position he had only minimal experience at prior to last summer. "This is definitely a fresh start for me," he said. "I'm really having to learn a new position for me. I know I've played it before, but I never learned it. Now, as far as my footwork and things like that, it's learning a new position. That's exciting, and it's been fun so far."

If Dunn can prove himself to be an adequate first baseman this season, then he will make himself much more valuable on the free agent market. Dunn, who is scheduled to be a free agent after the season, will be much less of a liability for interested teams. Right now, the limitations of Adam Dunn (defense, speed, batting average) would make it difficult for teams to commit to Dunn long term despite his immense gifts (power, ability to get on base).

On a side note, there have been murmurs that the Nationals want to extend Dunn, which might be the best option for Adam Dunn given how many quality first baseman are set to hit the market this winter (Lee, Konerko, Pena, Overbay). It's difficult to predict what kind of money will be thrown Dunn's way nine months from now or even before, but Dunn might not be able to do better than a 2 or 3 year deal.

Carlos Pena Loves Tampa Bay

2010-02-25T13:01:00.002-05:00

Is Carlos Pena's love for Tampa Bay enough to keep him around long term? If it was up to Pena, it sounds like he'd stay in Tampa:

It was a true reflection, he said, of how excited he was to be back on the field as the Rays went through their first full-squad workout Wednesday. And also, a symbol of how he plans to carry himself through what could be his last season in what he calls "the best place on Earth to play baseball."
Peña is an educated and erudite man, and in his head, he knows he may be done with the Rays. He's making $10.125 million at the end of his three-season deal and realizes he may not fit in their future, payroll-reduced plans.
---snip---
So he says it's his "desire" to stay, that it's "a no-brainer for me," that even though he is represented by typically hard-nosed agent Scott Boras, the decision ultimately will be his.
"I understand markets. I understand what I could be worth, I'm not blind to that," Peña said. "But I think it would be silly for me to ignore what this team means to me. It would be just absolutely silly. I would be lying to myself and everyone else if I just said I don't care. It's not true. Even though I consider myself an intelligent person, very well-educated about the business of baseball, I think it's going to be a balance."

If Pena is willing to bring his price down to a level where the Rays will be able to keep him, then he would be the antithesis of a Scott Boras client. As much as the Rays love Pena, I know that they cannot (and will not) overpay to keep him simply based on the team's economics alone. Can Pena and the Rays find some middle ground? Potentially. But it depends on two factors:

1. how much the Rays value Pena and consequently what they are willing to offer him

2. how much Pena less money Pena is willing to take to stay in Tampa versus what he could receive on the open market

Either way, this is certainly a situation worth monitoring even with free agency a mere nine months away.

Adrian Gonzalez: Ominous Quote for the Padres

2010-02-25T11:35:00.000-05:00

Say goodbye to the hometown discount. Hello, Beantown, Adrian Gonzalez:

On contract talks: “There hasn’t been any talks about anything.”

On his current contract, a four-year deal with a team option for 2011: “At the time you take the security. … The next one is where I look for what I deserve.”

Assuming that Gonzalez stays healthy and productive over the next two seasons, how much do you think he'll command on the open market? Teixeira money?

All I know is that Gonzalez's days with the Padres are surely numbered.

What Does the Future Hold for Lance Berkman?

2010-02-25T10:46:00.000-05:00

Would Lance Berkman seriously retire after the 2010 season? Sure...so says Lance:

Berkman is entering the final season of a six-year, $85 million contract. The Astros have a club option worth $15 million for 2011. If they don't exercise it, there is a $2 million buyout.

When asked about his take on the contract situation Wednesday, Berkman made a few jaws drop, saying if he fails to deliver this season and the Astros don't pick up his option for 2011, he will be looking for work elsewhere.

“I may have to, whether I like it or not,” said Berkman, a veteran of 11 seasons in the majors. “It may come down to a situation where if things don't go well, they don't pick up my option, then I probably won't be back.

“If they don't pick it up, I'll probably take my ball and go home.”

The question here is not what happens if the Astros don't pick up Berkman's option, but what kind of performance will Berkman have to put together in 2010 for the Astros not to pick up the option? I know the Astros' payroll situation is tight and they would love nothing more than to cut some payroll, but Berkman's popularity with the Astros makes it difficult for them to simply let him go, even if his prime is long gone.

This statement by Berkman could be a smart move in the long run because the Astros now know that he will not accept a discount so if they want to keep their franchise player around, they will have to pick up the option or risk losing him to retirement.

Gerry Hunsicker States the Obvious About Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena

2010-02-25T09:21:00.000-05:00

To Jim Bowden nonetheless:

Rays SR VP Gerry Hunsicker just told us on XM 175 that it will be very difficult to keep both Carl Crawford & Carlos Pena after this season

As I've stated previously, the writing is one the wall here. Enjoy them while you can, Rays fans.

More on AJ Pierzynski's Future with the White Sox

2010-02-23T11:45:00.000-05:00

I mentioned yesterday about the possibility of the White Sox signing Pierzynski to a one or two year deal to serve as a mentor/platoon partner for prospect Tyler Flowers. Well today, Pierzynski address that very question:

General manager Ken Williams said on Sunday that the contract status of catcher A.J. Pierzynski is something that will be talked about in the very near future, and he stated that he wasn't sure how comfortable he would be in handing the reins of a veteran pitching staff to Tyler Flowers next season.

Would Pierzynski -- a free agent after 2010 -- be willing to do a short-term deal and help with the transition?

''We'll cross that bridge when we come to it,'' Pierzynski said. ''I haven't really thought about that, but we'll focus on it if it comes up.

''My mind is on 2010, but if they came to me with something that was fair for both sides, I would definitely take a look at it.''

Interesting. I'm sure this a story that will be monitored all year, but it will be fascinating to see how Pierzynski balances his desire to play in Chicago with the various opportunities he should get to start in 2011.

Is 2010 Jayson Werth's Swan Song with the Phillies?

2010-02-23T10:20:00.000-05:00

Like Carl Crawford, the chances of Jayson Werth re-signing with his current club beyond the 2010 season seem to be slim to none:

The Phillies are coming off an offseason in which they signed Shane Victorino, Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, Danys Baez, Placido Polanco, Brian Schneider, Carlos Ruiz and Ross Gload to multiyear deals, pushing their 2011 payroll to $130.85 million.
Werth, who arrived yesterday sporting a bushy beard and shaggy hair, will be a 31-year-old free agent after this season.
The Phillies will be less than $10 million away from the $140 million threshold that they targeted this season, with 15 open roster spots. What happens next is anybody's guess.
"I haven't really thought about it," said Werth, who will earn $7 million in the last year of the 2-year contract he signed before last season. "I know that how much they are spending is an issue, and I think it's always an issue, no matter what the situation is. I definitely think that will play a part of it going forward. But again, that's something that my agent and the team will work out, and hopefully it will work out and I'll be in Philadelphia for a long time and continue to play with these guys."
----snip----
The two sides have not engaged in substantive negotiations. Earlier this offseason, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. admitted that money will play a role in the team's decision-making. The status of top prospect Domonic Brown, a corner outfielder, could also factor in.
"Jayson is under contract through this year," Amaro said. "We've had very, very preliminary discussions about what his future might be like here. There will be some difficult decisions down the road. We'll have to weigh where we want to fit in all the dollars and how we want to fit the puzzle together. We can not operate with nothing but $15 to $20 million players. And if there's any indication, how much the Holliday and Bay signings have a direct impact on where Werth may be at the end of this year, we're going to have to sift through it and figure out what's best for the organization."

The writing is on the wall for Werth in Philadelphia. With so much money committed already to players in 2011, there is virtually no chance that the Phillies will be able to re-sign Werth without doing something creative or having him take a well below market deal. And as the article mentioned, if top prospect Domonic Brown is ready to take over the position in 2011, then the Phillies would have a cheap, high upside player who could replace Werth.

And as I mentioned back in January, if Werth puts up big numbers in 2010, then there is plenty of reasons to expect that he will land a huge contract. Sure, maybe the deal won't be in the Matt Holliday territory, but Werth could position himself as one of the top free agents on the market and demand a multi year commitment with a $13-$16 million dollar annual salary.

Carl Crawford: Bronx Bound in 2011?

2010-02-23T09:05:00.000-05:00

Did the Yankees the reluctance to give Johnny Damon two years reflect something about their love for free agent to be Carl Crawford? According to Jon Heyman, the answer is yes.

One reason the Yankees were reluctant to go for a two-year deal for Johnny Damon might have had little to do with Damon and been a greater reflection of what they think of Carl Crawford. The Yankees love him. Crawford is almost sure to be too rich for the low-revenue Rays, and the Yankees jump to the head of the class for interested teams. Remember, too, that the Yankees passed on Matt Holliday. It all seems to set up nicely for Crawford.

If this is indeed true, then Yankees GM Brian Cashman deserves praise for his long term vision. Historically when the Yankees are "in love" with a player, they get him. A combination of the money, full court press from Yankee players, and the lure of the pinstripes seems to do the trick almost every time. Just ask CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira.

Assuming that the Yankees payroll in 2011 remains around $200 million, then they will have roughly $50 million (less after arbitration) to spend on free agents and re-sign Jeter and Rivera. No matter, if the Yankees are truly in love with Crawford, then they will find a way to make it work economically even if it means increasing their budget.

The Future of AJ Pierzynski

2010-02-22T15:20:00.000-05:00

AJ Pierzynski has been the heart and soul of the White Sox since 2005, but will 2010 be his final season with the club? Perhaps:

''No matter what happens, I will never wish bad on the White Sox organization. They have been nothing but great to me, from [chairman] Jerry [Reinsdorf] to [general manager] Kenny [Williams] to [manager] Ozzie [Guillen].''

Pierzynski is in the final year of a three-year extension he signed in 2007. He's 33 years old.

Tyler Flowers is Williams' latest golden boy. He's a hit-first, ask-questions-later offensive catcher who was acquired in the trade that sent Javier Vazquez to the Atlanta Braves in 2008.

Flowers just turned 24.

Do the math.

---snip---
What does Pierzynski want?

''I want to stay, and everyone knows that,'' he said. ''There's no doubt about that.''

If Pierzynski entered the free agent market this winter, he probably would have been the most coveted catcher out there given his experience and production. However, Pierzynski is set to be a free agent after the 2010 season, which means he will be a member of one of the deepest free agent catching classes in history right now (Mauer, Victor Martinez, Gerald Laird, Ramon Hernandez). After Mauer and Martinez, I would rate Pierzynski above Laird and Hernandez because of his experience, leadership, left handed bat, and he's still a very useful player at the plate.

However, Pierzynski's experience will also play against him. Pierzynski will be 34 years old at the end of the 2010 season and I'd be shocked to see a team give him a deal that exceeds two guaranteed years. Even if Pierzynski puts together a career season with the Sox in 2010, the risk is simply too high given how catchers decline with age.

With all that said, I would not be surprised to see the White Sox extend a one or two year offer to Pierzynski, who could act as a mentor to Tyler Flowers as he adjusts to the majors. Pierzynski makes it obvious that he wants to stay on the south side, but would he stay if it meant reduced playing time? We'll see.

Carl Crawford "Hoping for the Best"

2010-02-22T14:15:00.000-05:00

Sounds like Carl is about to price himself out of Tampa:

Carl Crawford said his chances of staying with the Rays "could go either way" and he's "hoping for the best like always.''

"Right now I really don't know,'' he said after his first workout of the spring. "I wish something good would come out of it. At this point we really haven't done too much of that (negotiating) right now and I don't know when we will.''

(Just to clarify, he said "hoping for the best" does mean staying with the Rays. "It does to me, I don't know about other people,'' he joked.)

Crawford did say he would prefer to not negotiate during the season, which puts something on a six-week clock on a potential extension with the Rays. If he gets to the end of the season, he is obviously more likely to explore free agency.

And while he wouldn't get into what he might be looking for or whether he would offer the Rays any kind of "hometown" discount, he made it clear he is looking for market value - which you would assume is in excess of the $10-million he is making this year. "That's what you go there for, to free agency,'' he said. "You go there to be paid like the guys playing against you. Pretty much, it speaks for itself.''

As I mentioned this morning, I don't think there is much of a possibility that Crawford stays beyond this year unless he is willing to take a hometown discount. This piece simply confirms that and makes me wonder what exactly is market value for a guy like Crawford? Would it be the 7 year/$120 million dollar deal the Cardinals gave to Matt Holliday?

Give us your thoughts in the comments section.

Jose Reyes Wants to Finish his Career With the Mets

2010-02-22T13:30:00.000-05:00

Good news for Mets fans as long as the injury bug stays away from Jose:

The Mets have an $11 million option on his 2011 contract. He needs to produce. Reyes said he wants to remain a Met his entire career.
Reyes said he thinks if he stays healthy, the marriage will continue for many years.
"I don't want to go anywhere," he said. "I want to finish my career here.
"Right now, I'm not thinking about contract stuff," Reyes said. "I just want to get on the field and try to do my job and put up good numbers and try to help this team win. That's my goal right now."

This is obviously a huge season for Reyes, who is coming off an injury plagued 2009 season where he missed a majority of the season. If Reyes is healthy and performs at a high level, then there is absolutely no way that the Mets don't pick up the option. Even if Reyes is healthy, but does not produce at his '06-'08 levels, I still think the Mets will pick up his option because his talents are so immense and there is simply no way for the Mets to replace him. Simply put, I see no way that the Mets won't pick up his 2011 option, even at $11 million.

However, the future of Jose Reyes with the Mets is up in the air. Reyes will be a free agent at the end of the 2011 season and assuming he stays healthy and productive, he will be one of the most coveted free agents out there. Even though it seems like Reyes has been around forever, he will only be 28 years old after the 2011 season. The Mets need to figure out if Reyes is truly a player that can and will build around for the next decade and invest heavily in. Reyes has tons of potential to land a huge contract with the Mets or any other club moving forward, but he needs to prove himself in 2010 (and in 2011).

Manny Ramirez States that Manny Ramirez Will Not Be With the Dodgers in 2011

2010-02-22T12:45:00.000-05:00

Dodger fans, enjoy your last season of Mannywood:

Manny Ramirez appeared in the Dodgers' clubhouse for the first time on Monday morning and promptly conceded this would be his final spring training with the club.
"I won't be here next year, so I just want to enjoy myself," Ramirez said. "I don't know [if I'll play next year]. I just know I'm not going to be here. When the season is over, I will see where I'm at."

Makes sense. Even though Manny is still a draw and one of the most popular players in baseball, his value at this point is solely at the plate and he remains a liability in the field. It's in Manny's best interests to get out of the National League and into the American League in 2011 where he can be a full time DH and not have to worry about the pounding his body will take from playing defense.

If Manny does decide to play in 2011, it will be interesting to see what kind of salary he will make. Obviously he will not command the $20 million he is receiving from the Dodgers in 2010, but assuming that Manny puts up solid numbers this season and stays healthy, is it unrealistic to think that Manny will command at least $10 million annually.

Even better question is this: would Manny play for anything less than $10 million annually? I don't think so.

Rays Will Do "Everything They Can" To Keep Crawford and Pena

2010-02-22T12:30:00.000-05:00

So says owner Stuart Sternberg:

* The team will do everything they can to keep free-agent-to-be Carl Crawford as long as they can, and also Carlos Pena. On Crawford specifically he said: "He's been a face of this organization, he's been a great Ray, he was a great Devil Ray, he's an extraordinary player and teammate, for the community and a face of this team. We're going to do everything we can to make sure he stays here longer.''

That's all well and good to say in public, but realistically, everyone knows that the writing is on the wall. It's extremely doubtful that the Rays will be able to keep both guys. Assuming that both guys perform as expected (30+ HR for Pena, 50+ SB, .300 average for Crawford), then it's very possible that the 2011 salaries for Pena and Crawford combined could be between $20-$30 million dollars (probably closer to $30 million). For the Rays, this presents a problem because their total team payroll will probably be somewhere in the $60 million dollar range next season. Obviously, it's not realistic for the Rays to commit such an enormous amount of their resources to two players.

There's always the chance that Crawford and Pena accept less to stay in Tampa, but that's a scenario that I highly doubt will happen. At best, maybe the Rays will be able to keep one of the two, but given the Rays payroll limitations and arbitration raises to guys like Upton, Garza, and Bartlett; even that possibility is hard to imagine.

Jorge De La Rosa and the 2011 Free Agent Class

2010-02-22T11:10:00.000-05:00

A pitcher actually WANTS to stay in Colorado? What a concept!

-- Lefty Jorge De La Rosa, who led the Rockies in wins last season with 16, can become a free agent at season's end. De La Rosa said his ambition is to have a strong year to earn the right to stay with Colorado.

De La Rosa will be a free agent at the end of the season and is one of the more interesting cases out there. De La Rosa had the best season of his career with the Rockies in 2009 by posting a 4.38 ERA and winning an impressive 16 games. The left hander will be 29 in April and would seem to be entering the prime of his career.

The pressing question that surrounds De La Rosa entering the 2010 season is this: can he continue to improve and develop into a top flight starting pitcher? De La Rosa has improved drastically during his two years with the Rockies and if he takes another step forward this season, then the class of free agent starting pitchers could become even deeper.

De La Rosa's biggest advantage entering this winter is his age because he will be just 30 years old in 2011. There are a number of top flight starting pitchers out there this winter (Beckett, Lilly, Lee, Vazquez, Webb) and even though De La Rosa does not have the resume of those pitchers, he is younger than all five of those guys. Despite the large number of quality free agent starting pitcher available this winter, I think De La Rosa has a nice opportunity to land a multi year deal this winter.

Even though Colorado might be able to save a few bucks down the line by locking up De La Rosa now, there is far too much risk involved with offering De La Rosa a long term deal right now considering his limited success at the big league level.

Will Adam Dunn Stay with the Nationals Long Term?

2010-02-22T10:00:00.000-05:00

If Mike Rizzo had his way, it sure sounds like Dunn would be a National for a long time to come:

* Rizzo reiterated Saturday that he would like to sign Adam Dunn to a contract extension, but declined to talk about how the negotiations were going between the two parties. Dunn is a free agent after the 2010 season.
Rizzo went so far as to call Dunn one of his favorite players and predicted that he could be a future Hall of Famer if he continued to put up the power numbers.

"I love the guy," Rizzo said about Dunn. "There's not many 40-home run, 100-RBI guys running around out there. He fits in with this club. He's a very unique leader, I call him. He leads in a very quirky way, but leads nonetheless.

"He's always open to helping the younger players and we look at it this way: several years down the road if he continues at the pace he's at, we're going to be talking about Hall of Famer Adam Dunn."

The Nationals have had a tough time attracting big names to Washington, and let's be honest, Dunn is the only true big name free agent the Nationals brought on board in some time. And how's this for more honesty, the only reason Dunn is with the Nationals now is because no one else wanted him or was willing to give him the money the Nationals were.

But I digress. Dunn might not be the best long term answer for the Nationals because he is slow and his defense stinks, but there is no denying that Dunn makes the Nationals lineup deeper and far more potent. If the Nationals can hold off on giving Dunn more than a three (or four) year commitment at somewhere in the $10-$12 million dollar range, then I actually think that's a deal that could benefit the Nationals greatly down the road.

At the same time, Adam Dunn is in a pretty strange situation. He is set to become a free agent at the end of the season, but what kind of interest will there be in his services? Yes, Dunn is one of the premier power hitters in baseball, but now that teams are beginning to strongly emphasize defense and defensive analysis, how many teams will actually view him as just a DH in waiting? Not too many I'd imagine. Given how poorly DHs did on the free agent market the past two winters, my guess is that if Dunn hits the free agent market after this season, he will be disappointed yet again by the level of offers he will receive (even if he hits his annual 40 HR).

Dunn's impending free agency is nearly nine months away, but is it impossible to think that three or four year deal with the Nationals now would be the best contract he'd see all year? I don't think so.

Beckett Silent on Contract Talks with Red Sox

2010-02-22T08:37:00.000-05:00

In the words of the great LeRoy Brownlow, "there are times when silence has the loudest voice":

Josh Beckett met with the media in Fort Myers. As he enters the option year of a three-year, $30 million deal (that included a $12 million option for the 2010 season), Beckett said that he’s preferred not to publicly discuss the status of contract talks with the Red Sox about staying in Boston beyond the coming season.
“We talked about talking. That stuff is going to work itself out. I’m really not too concerned with it,” said Beckett. “I don’t really have anything to say about spring training stuff today or probably any time during spring training. … I really don’t have anything to say right now, and I don’t think I’ll have anything to say at all during spring training or after that. I really don’t want to have that be the focus on what we’re trying to do.”

Yeah, sorry LeRoy, but I don't think this is one of those times. As much as the Red Sox fans would love to have some sort of conclusion to the Beckett talks, there is simply too many unknowns on both sides for something to realistically get done this spring. Beckett's silence will surely be interpreted a billion different ways by fans and media alike, but in the end, it's really much ado about nothing.

Do the Red Sox Want to Keep Papelbon Long Term?

2010-02-17T12:30:00.000-05:00

After making all kinds of noise this winter about his free agency in 2012, Jonathan Papelbon expressed his desire to stay with the Red Sox long term:

What do you make of the perception that you will seek the biggest contract in free agency and leave the Red Sox after 2011?

I think that’s the perception, that I’m going to go somewhere else, but it’s all a perception. Right now this is the way it’s working out. It’s that simple. It’s one year at a time, it’s working out and both sides are happy. Why would you try to do anything else is my way of thinking. Of course I’d love to be with Boston for a long term.

But this is the way it is right now and I’m happy going one year at a time. This is the organization I started in. This is the organization that gave me the opportunity to play major league baseball. Of course I’d love to stay here for 15 years. Right now one year at a time is the way it’s working and I’m happy and everyone else is happy, so why not.

While Papelbon stating that he wants to stay in Boston is news worthy, what will ultimately decide Papelbon's fate in Boston is if the Red Sox want to keep him around. Yes Papelbon is a tremendous talent and is one of the top closers in baseball, but it's hard to imagine the Red Sox giving Papelbon the huge contract that he is thought to be after.

Even though Papelbon's free agency is two years away, I can tell you right now that Papelbon's contract expectations beyond 2012 will play a major role in figuring out his future with the Red Sox. If Papelbon expects to break records and set a new standard for contracts given to a closer, then I imagine he will have to go elsewhere. But if Papelbon's price comes down, let's say to somewhere in the 3 years/$36 million dollar range (K-Rod money), then does anyone think the Red Sox would pass that up? They might, but given the expected rise of fireballer Daniel Bard, it would not surprise me to see the Sox pass on Papelbon all together after the 2011 season.

Jeff Francis: 2011 Club Option and His Future with the Rockies

2010-02-17T11:00:00.000-05:00

Some encouraging news for Rockies fans:

Francis, who won 17 games and helped the Rockies to the 2007 World Series before an injury-filled 2008 (4-10, 5.01 ERA), has completed long rehab process, thrown in instructional ball last fall and went through two sessions of facing hitters at the Rockies' complex in the Dominican Republic earlier this month.
Francis' comeback will be a front-burner issue soon enough. But since he has given everyone reason to believe he's healthy, a day of exercise two days before camp opens isn't front-page news.
"I feel good, strong," Francis said. "Going to the Dominican was a nice warmup, to get outside and get the Spring Training feel, do some drills, throw some bullpens. Here, I'm just continuing what I was doing down there."
----snip---
As the shoulder issues worsened, Francis lost control of the pinpoint mechanics and location that helped him win 44 games from 2005-07 -- the most for any pitcher in Rockies history during a three-year span. He said he didn't recognize himself when he saw video of his outings when he was fighting the shoulder issues.
Now that he no longer feels pain, or even tightness, he has to find the old Francis.
"My delivery feels a little foreign because I haven't done it for so long," he said. "I'm trying to get on the mound as much as I can. Even if I'm not throwing full-on, I'll bring the guy [catching] up to 50 feet and go through my delivery.

In the short term, if the Rockies can get 25-30 starts from Francis and he performs at his 2006-2007 level, then the Rockies, dare I say it, will have a dynamic top 3 in their starting rotation (along with Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez). This is a team that on paper should be able to compete with anyone in the National League given their wide array of talent.

But in the long term, Francis return to the Rockies will open up a new series of questions about his future with the Rockies. Francis has a $7 million dollar club option for the 2011 season and right now, it would obviously make zero sense for the Rockies to pick that up. But as we've said before, a lot can change in a year. If Francis stays healthy and demonstrates the same ability that catapulted him onto the national stage in 2007, then would it be worth it for the Rockies to commit a substantial amount of money to him? Remember, to date, Francis has only had two good seasons in the majors and has never produced a season with a sub 4 ERA (which might not be an important stat given where he pitches a majority of his games).

That said, if the Rockies payroll remains in the $70-$75 million dollar range next season, will the Rockies be willing to throw almost 10% of that at Francis? Only time will tell.

Quote of the Day: Mortified About Mauer Leaving

2010-02-17T09:10:00.000-05:00

Mortified:

"I tell people that it's possible he could leave as a free agent after the year," former Twins catcher Tim Laudner says, "and they look mortified. It just shows how Minnesotans are so different. They're so protective of their teams. I mean, look at what they did to embrace (Brett Favre).
"People would go crazy here if Mauer ever left, especially with the new stadium."

Lemme ask you this, how many players are there right now who would illicit a "mortified" look from the hometown fans just at the mere discussion of leaving as a free agent? The discussion has to begin with Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter, but both of those guys have been around since the mid 90s and have a true legacy with the Yankees. Mauer, on the other hand, only burst onto the scene in 2004 and is just 26 years old. It's remarkable how quickly Twins fans have taken to Mauer, not just because he is a hometown boy, but because he's one of the top players in baseball.

We've seen great baseball towns have their hearts ripped out before by players, but I'm very, very doubtful that Mauer will leave the Twins. Simply put, the love affair is too strong and if the money is good (which it will be), then I see no reason why Mauer would want to leave.

Miguel Tejada: His Future at Third Base

2010-02-16T10:45:00.001-05:00

With his days as shortstop behind him, Miguel Tejada is set to begin this season as the Orioles primary third baseman:

Throughout two productive years with the Houston Astros, during which he hit .298 with 27 homers and 152 RBIs, Tejada was twice selected to the National League All-Star team. He never lost his passion for winning or his ability to drive in runs, and when the six-year, $72 million deal he inked with Baltimore in 2003 expired, the Orioles’ need for a right-handed run-producer to man third base and Tejada’s desire to clean up some unfinished business intersected.

“I’m happy to … come back to the Orioles for the second time in my career,” the 35-year-old Tejada said at a press conference held Jan. 27. “It puts a lot of pressure on myself because this is a second chance to be a winner. The last time, I could not be a winner. But I think this time is the time to be a winner and I come back here for a reason.”

Andy MacPhail, Orioles president of baseball operations, patiently waited for the market to re-set itself after December’s free-agent flurry and was intrigued to find Tejada still seeking employment. Once the Orioles had signed free agent Garrett Atkins and inserted him at first base, the hot corner became the next spot needing to be filled. Tejada, who told his agent he was willing to move to third if he could play full-time, jumped at the opportunity.

As the article states, Tejada has continued to be a very productive player at the plate even as he gets older. Even though his power has diminsihed greatly from his MVP days, Tejada can still hold his own at the plate by hitting for a high average with lots of doubles and RBIs.

The move to third base was a good one for Tejada's future. While his production at the plate has remained above average, his defensive ability took a sharp turn for the worse last season and as a result, Tejada was statistically one of the worst defensive third basemen in baseball.

Tejada, who will be a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, does have the opportunity to extend his career by moving to third base assuming that he can play quality defense. The class of free agent third baseman next winter in quite weak (led by Jorge Cantu and Brandon Inge) and there's no doubt in my mind that it was in Tejada's best interests to move to third base and attempt to increase his value and performance this season. At soon to be 36 years old, there's little to no chance that Tejada will land anything more than a 1-2 year deal next winter, but the reality is that a aging shortstop with declining defensive skills and limited offensive power is not exactly what teams are looking for these days.

If Tejada can improve his defense at third base and match his offensive production of the past two seasons, I think we will see far more teams interested in his services next winter.

Is Joe Mauer Worth the Long-Term Risk?

2010-02-16T08:41:00.002-05:00

Fascinating read from Joe Christiensen, who tackles the question that everyone has been avoiding so far: Is Joe Mauer worth the long term risk?

You be the judge.

I've said this before, but I think the Twins are in a tough situation. They NEED to keep Mauer around at any price given his importance to the club, but they have to be careful not to give out a contract that will severely hurt the Twins down the road.

What do you think?

Victor Martinez Does Not Want to be a Free Agent

2010-02-15T10:30:00.000-05:00

Music to Red Sox fans' ears:

And now, just one season away from his first crack at free agency and the opportunity to choose from what should be a healthy number of teams hopeful of signing the best hitting catcher not named Joe Mauer, Martinez wants no part of it.

He is not looking for a new city to call home.

Now that he is a Red Sox, he wants to stay one.

“A lot of guys like to be free agents, but I’m going to be really honest on this answer,” Martinez said last week.

He then looked away, pausing to gather his thoughts.

“I don’t want to be jumping around, I don’t want to go somewhere else,” Martinez continued. “First, I didn’t want to go out of the Indians organization. Then I’m out, and now I’m here. I came to the place where a lot of players dream to come and a lot of players wish to play here in Boston. So I’m here, I do really want to stay here and hopefully end my career in Boston.”

That's certainly some encouraging news for the Red Sox and GM Theo Epstein. If Martinez hits the free agent market after this season, then he will probably be one of the most coveted free agents on the market. Martinez has established himself as one of the top catchers in baseball and I'm sure the Red Sox would love to have Martinez on board for the foreseeable future.

You have to wonder if statements like this from Martinez will kick start talks about a contract extension for Martinez. Things have been quiet to date between the Red Sox and Martinez and there really has been limited dialogue from the two sides suggesting that either was in a rush to get a deal done. Then again, it makes sense for Martinez and his agent to remain patient and wait things out because if Joe Mauer signs an extension with the Twins before the offseason, then Martinez will become the top catcher on the market and his price will undoubtedly jump given how few all-star level catchers there are. In addition, if the Twins and Mauer come to terms on a extension, it will give the Red Sox and Martinez a better idea of what a reasonable extension would be for both sides.

Preview of the 2011 Free Agent Class

2010-02-15T09:00:00.000-05:00

FanHouse previews some of the big names in the 2011 free agent class in this piece. In the spirit of "it's never too early for the hot stove," this article is certainly worth a look or two.

Jeremy Bonderman in "Fine Form"

2010-02-11T12:10:00.000-05:00

So says Justin Verlander:

Justin Verlander said the throws have life on them, more than he saw last year. He talked about making adjustments, going back to the basics. He's really excited about the progress.
He wasn't talking about himself. He was talking about Jeremy Bonderman.
It's the kind of talk the Tigers need to translate into results if they're going to have a complete rotation, or if Bonderman is going to turn the corner in his contract year.
So far, so good.
"We play catch together most of the time, and he's got a lot of life on the ball," Verlander said last week. "And that's something that I hadn't seen over the last year or so. I'm really excited about where he's headed."

Bonderman will be a free agent at the end of the 2010 season and if he puts together a solid 2010 season, he could become one of the most interesting free agents on the market. Even though Bonderman has missed most of the past two seasons because of injuries, Bonderman will only be 28 years old after this season. Sure, the list of 2011 free agent starting pitchers is deep (Webb, Beckett, etc.), but Bonderman could become a cheaper alternative to those guys given his age and upside.

Twins "Optimistic" About Mauer Extension

2010-02-11T10:30:00.000-05:00

MLB.com's Kelly Thesier addresses the question on the mind of every Twins fan:

1. Will the Twins sign Joe Mauer to a contract extension before Opening Day?
Mauer's future has been the biggest topic surrounding the Twins this offseason and certainly all of baseball is paying attention to whether the club can extend the catcher. Mauer is entering the final season of his four-year, $33 million contract and would be eligible to become a free agent in the fall.

There has been a lot of optimism within the organization that a deal will get done. While no one has ruled out the possibility of discussions taking place during the regular season, there is no question that the Twins would like to have a deal in place before Opening Day. So there are bound to be a lot of eyes focused on Fort Myers, Fla., this spring to see if the Twins can lock up the reigning AL MVP before they break camp and open up their new ballpark, Target Field.

It would be disappointing to see the best 2011 free agent off the market simply because it would be fascinating to see what Mauer could earn on the open market, but there is no denying how important this deal is for the Twins. And if the Twins are able to sign Mauer, the deal will be good for baseball in general.

Prince Fielder: 5 Years/ $100 Million?

2010-02-11T10:05:00.002-05:00

Buried in this article where Garry D. Howard declares that the Brewers need to sign Prince Fielder now, he predicts that a 5 year/$100 million dollar offer could be the offer that keeps Prince in Milwaukee. You be the judge:

So I figure a sweet, five-year, $100 million offer (even you can't afford seven, like his agent, Scott "Pay Me!" Boras, would prefer) with incentives might, just might, get 'er done. He's not the "I" in team, no; he's just the T, the E, the A and the M.

Mr. Fielder, in case you forgot, Mr. Attanasio, is a grounded, confident soul who shunned an early call to sign long-term for the chance at a more lucrative payday.

He did his part in 2009, ranking first in the NL in RBI (141), second in slugging (.602), Ding Dongs (46) and OPS (1.014), fourth in walks (110) and sixth in runs (103), all for a measly (by today's standards) $7 million.

And now it's time to get paid. And he will.

It's just that - without any inside dope on his intentions - I feel he would take a five-year deal at $20 million per to see what he could do with the Brewers. Every great baseball player wants to be the straw. And by anyone's standards, Prince is just that for this Crew but maybe not for another club, incentive enough to re-sign with Milwaukee.

While 5 years/$100 million is a strong offer especially coming from the Brewers, I'm not sure that's enough to get it done. There's a chance that Fielder, if he keeps producing at this level for the next two seasons, can earn somewhere in the $140-$160 million dollar range. Think about it: when Fielder becomes a free agent after the 2011 season, he will only be 27 years old. The payday for a player with Fielder's production combined with Fielder's age will be massive.

So unless Fielder REALLY REALLY wants to stay with the Brewers, I have my doubts that a 5 year/$100 million dollar offer would work, simply because Fielder probably would be leaving a huge chunk of money on the table.

Brandon Webb Throws Off a Mound

2010-02-09T17:20:00.000-05:00

Big news for free agent to be Brandon Webb:

D-backs ace Brandon Webb threw off a mound on Tuesday for the first time since having surgery on his right shoulder in August.
"[It] went good," Webb told MLB.com. "[The] ball came out well, but I was just thinking about arm slot on every throw. That's to be expected, not having thrown on the mound in so long."
Webb made just one start in 2009 because of shoulder discomfort. On Aug. 3 he underwent a minor procedure known as a debridement to clean up some fraying around the labrum.
"It was good to get him into the next phase of his rehabilitation," D-backs manager A.J. Hinch said. "He looked comfortable. This is a positive sign as we're getting close to Spring Training. I thought he looked good."

Obviously, this is huge for Webb. Even though he missed almost all of the 2009 season, if Webb puts together a big season for the Diamondbacks, then Webb would become one of the most sought after starting pitchers on the free agent market. Webb will only be 31 this season and has a fantastic track record, but he will need to stay healthy and prove that he is still one of the top pitchers in the National League if he is going to land a huge contract. I doubt that any team will feel comfortable committing to Webb for more than 3-4 seasons, but a lot can change over the course of a season.

Ted Lilly is Coming Along Nicely

2010-02-09T16:44:00.004-05:00

Since signing a 4 year/$40 million dollar contract with the Cubs after the 2006 season, Ted Lilly has been surprisingly good. Lilly was an all-star in 2009 and has a 3.70 ERA and 44 wins in three seasons with the Cubs.

Lilly will be a free agent after the 2010 season and on paper, Lilly is one of the best free agent starting pitchers out there. Lilly needs to put up big numbers once again in 2010 if he wants to land yet another big contract. But in order for Lilly to get another fat paycheck, he needs to be healthy. And luckily for Lilly, it looks like the Cubs are willing to be cautious with Lilly, who is coming off shoulder surgery:

Chicago Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said there is not a clear-cut date for the return for pitcher Ted Lilly, who is coming back from left shoulder surgery cleanup.

Media reports have circulated that Lilly won't return until late April or early May.
"I talked to Mark O'Neil [trainer] last week, and he said he is coming along fine," Hendry said. "If he starts April 15 that will be fine. I don't see it being anything unless there is some kind of setback that happens in camp. It was a real minor procedure. In fairness to Ted, we're not going to rush him either. If he's 95 percent on Opening Day then we will wait until he is 100 percent."

If Lilly misses a few weeks because of the injury, I doubt that will have a major impact on his earning potential. As long as Lilly makes 25-30 starts, shows he's healthy, and performs like he has over the past three seasons, there is no reason to think that Lilly won't be one of the most sought after free agent starting pitcher.

I'm sure interested teams will do a thorough evaluation of Lilly's shoulder, but at 34 years old, it's not out of the realm of possibility to think that Lilly has another 3-4 solid seasons left.

No Contract Negotiations for Derek Jeter or Mariano Rivera...Yet

2010-02-09T11:00:00.001-05:00

Are contract extensions on the horizon for free agents to be Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera? Not yet, says GM Brian Cashman:

When Brian Cashman looks at Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Joe Girardi, the Yankees’ GM paints his shortstop, closer and manager with the same brush.
And with spring training opening next week in Tampa, Cashman has no plans to stray from his plan of not negotiating with them. All three contracts are in the final year.
“I don’t think you can separate one from the other,” Cashman explained. “I am not saying they are the same, but the questions will come, ‘If you did one, why didn’t you do the other?’ If this was Kansas City, it would be different — but it’s not.”

I can't imagine Jeter or Rivera playing anywhere else so it's not like the Yankees HAVE TO get both guys signed right now. Eventually, both guys will sign and finish out their illustrious careers with the Yankees. No matter how Jeter and Rivera perform in 2010, I'm 100% confident that both guys will be back with the Yankees in 2011 and even though everyone expects Jeter and Rivera to return, the Yankees will handsomely pay both guys, especially if their respective 2010 performances mirror their 2009 seasons.

Manny Ramirez: DH to be in 2011?

2010-02-09T10:15:00.000-05:00

Perhaps...so says Nick Cafardo:

Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers - Third base coach Larry Bowa says the team has to watch him closely this year, because last year Ramirez wore down quickly and didn’t have his usual pop. “When he came back to us last year, he looked a bit lost, and it took him a while to get things going,’’ said Bowa. “I know he wants to play another three or four years, so this is an important year for him.’’ Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported that Ramirez was considering not picking up his $20 million option and instead returning to the American League to DH. That’s where he may be headed in 2011.

If Manny puts up big numbers in 2010 with the Dodgers, then there is no reason to think that an AL team won't feel comfortable investing at least $10 million+ in Ramirez. But as we saw this winter, the market for free agent DHs was terrible and many had a difficult time drumming up interest for their services. But then again, Manny offers more than just offensive production because he is a brand and one of the few players in baseball who has first name recognition and brings with him a certain buzz factor.

Furthermore, at this stage in his career, Manny offers no value in the field and is statistically one of the worst left fielders in baseball. So in turn, getting Manny off the field and focusing solely on hitting could increase his overall value to the club...as long as his offensive production remains stellar.

Joe Mauer: A Nine or Ten Year Contract IS Possible

2010-02-09T09:00:00.002-05:00

So says Twins owner Jim Pohlad:

He also indicated an openness to signing Mauer for nine or 10 years, if that's what it would take. First baseman Justin Morneau's six-year contract signed two years ago is the current Twins record.
"I don't think six is a magic number," Pohlad said, adding: "Total value is what drives it. We do not have a term policy."

I have a difficult time giving such a large guarantee to a catcher, but it seems that the Twins are willing to do it because they love Mauer, they know how important he is, and they will do everything in their power to keep him off the free agent market. Forget about the impact of deferred compensation, giving Mauer such a large extension is what really could hurt the Twins down the road.

If you're Twins GM Bill Smith, would you give Joe Mauer a 10 year extension?

Joe Mauer and the "Legacy Contract"

2010-02-02T11:35:00.000-05:00

How will the Twins keep Joe Mauer off the 2011 free agent market? With a "legacy contract" that might, if you listen to yesterday's reports, keep Mauer under contract with the Twins for ten seasons:

In reality, it's complicated, as the Twins are working on something CEO Jim Pohlad calls "a legacy contract." It will recognize what Mauer has done for the franchise until now, and what he will do in the future, and it could be worth at least $20 million per year.

Two people close to the Mauer family suggested the framework of a deal -- the number of years and guaranteed money -- could already be in place, with the sides working on details such as deferred compensation. But people closer to the negotiations would not confirm this.

This type of deal could become dangerous for the Twins. While it would be a home run in short term, the long term implications of a "legacy contract" with Mauer could be devastating. Mauer is obviously a rare and unique talent, who means more to the Twins and to Minnesota than any words will be able to describe, but giving a catcher a ten year contract seems like an awfully risky move. The Twins might not have many other options at this point if they want to keep Mauer, but committing so many years to a player, who plays the most demanding position in baseball is tough for me to feel good about.

I have no problem paying Joe Mauer $18-$20 million dollars annually because that's what he's worth (and probably more) on the open market, but committing to Mauer for 10 years will lock him up until he's 36. The risk of Mauer breaking down or missing significant time because of injury is high as long as he's still catching.

This situation is a catch 22 for the Twins because they need to keep Mauer around long term for the short term and long term future of the franchise, but by committing to him for so many years, they might pay for the deal towards the end of the contract. I still think a 7-8 year guaranteed deal would be ideal for the Twins and if Mauer is set on the deal reaching ten years in length, then give him the opportunity to extend the deal a year or two with options based on his health, performance, game played, at bats, etc.

Let the Beckett Watch Begin

2010-02-02T09:00:00.000-05:00

John Tomase touches on a number of fascinating points as Red Sox ace Josh Beckett heads towards free agency after this season:

1. Injury Protection

But there could be complications. The Red Sox recently have made a point of including injury protection in their big free agent contracts. Right fielder J.D. Drew [stats] and Lackey agreed to clauses that allow the team to opt out (Drew) or add another season at the minimum (Lackey) if pre-existing conditions sidelined either.

Bay balked at a similar provision last year, which is what derailed those negotiations in July and caused the Sox to pull their four-year, $60 million offer off the table. It never returned.

When the Sox acquired Beckett in November 2005, there were sufficient concerns about the health of his right shoulder to give the team pause before pulling the trigger. The sides didn’t include any injury protection in the three-year, $30 million extension he signed during the 2006 season, and he has averaged 30 starts and 198 innings per season since.

Still, if the team considered the shoulder worrisome in 2005, it stands to reason there will be concerns in ’10.

Kudos to the Red Sox for asking their big money free agents to include this provision in their contracts. The Red Sox are simply protecting their investment and in the long term, I think we can all agree that provisions like this are a plus for the team.

If Beckett finishes the 2010 season healthy, then it would not surprise me to see the Red Sox not insist on this provision in the contract. The injury protection that the Red Sox have in JD Drew and John Lackey's contracts only cover pre-existing conditions that the Red Sox identified before the contract was agreed upon. The only problem here is that Beckett has no existing condition that we know of that the Red Sox can put into the contract. The article mentions that Beckett has a history of shoulder concerns and I guess the Red Sox can put that into the contract, but my research has shown the Beckett has never been on the DL because of his shoulder (look out for blisters though!).

The Red Sox negotiations with Jason Bay fell apart because they insisted on having a injury protection clause in the contract, but Bay refused because he was not hurt. If the Red Sox want to keep Beckett around after 2010, then they might have to suck it up and not put the injury clause in the contract because from Beckett's perspective, there is no reason that he should have to forfeit money and years to the Red Sox now when he has not missed any time with the said pre-existing condition (then again, he might really, really want to stay in Boston).

********** **********

2. Will Josh Beckett land a $100 million dollar contract?

At one time, signing Beckett to a $100 million deal seemed like a foregone conclusion. In 2007, he won 20 games for the first time, finished second in the Cy Young Award voting to CC Sabathia, and carried the Sox to the World Series as AL Championship Series MVP.
----snip----
He’s clearly one of the most desirable pitchers in the game, but will the Red Sox see him that way by the end of the season? Will he be a $100 million player? Will he get a five-year deal? Crazy as it sounds, could he even be trade bait for a bat come July if the Red Sox decide they don’t like their chance of retaining him?

A lot can change between now and next winter, but my opinion is if Beckett puts together a season similar to his 2007 season in 2010, then he will have a good chance at a $100 million dollar+ contract. Beckett's age, ability, and past performance (2003 postseason, 2007 season, 2009 season) all are good reasons why a team should invest heavily in Beckett despite his somewhat up and down performance with the Red Sox.

The one major factor that Beckett has working against him-even if he puts together a career season in 2010-is that the 2011 free agent class is going to be rich in starting pitchers. The list of quality free agent starting pitchers is quite impressive: Beckett, Cliff Lee, Javier Vazquez, Brandon Webb, and Ted Lilly are the cream of the crop. Normally there are two or three quality starting pitchers on the free agent market, but the forecast for the winter suggests that we could have at least five top flight starting pitchers, who are free agents. There is no doubt that there will be heavy demand for these starting pitchers, but the supply of "ace level" starting pitchers could ultimately bring the individual prices of these starting pitchers down.

Can Aaron Miles Increase his Value with the Reds?

2010-02-01T12:48:00.003-05:00

When Aaron Miles was traded to the Athletics, I thought he would be in line for a boost in playing time. But today, Miles was traded to the Reds, which could be disastrous for his value moving forward:

The Cincinnati Reds acquired infielder Aaron Miles in a trade with the Oakland Athletics, swapping young infielder Adam Rosales and outfielder Willy Taveras.
The Reds also will get a player to be named or cash, according to sources.
Miles, 33, was a disappointment with the Cubs last season, hitting .185 in 74 games -- and likewise, the 28-year-old Taveras struggled with the Reds, hitting just .240 in 102 games.

Assuming that Miles stays with the Reds and is not dealt again in the near future, I'm struggling to see where he will find playing time. Miles has primarily played shortstop and second base throughout his career, but with Orlando Cabrera (160 games played in '09) and Brandon Phillips (151 games played in '09) manning shortstop and second base respectively, playing time will be scarce for Miles. For a guy coming off a terrible season, this is not exactly the ideal situation for Miles, who will be a free agent after the 2010 season.

If Miles stays with the Reds, he will have to find ways to make himself valuable in order to earn at bats and playing time. Miles needs to be ready to play all over the infield and even the outfield as needed for the Reds and show some value as a pinch hitter. There's always the chance that someone gets hurt so that Miles will get some more playing time, but right now, Miles has to hope the best and prepare for the worst.

The best case scenario for Miles and his upcoming free agency is that the Reds release him and give him a chance to compete for a job elsewhere where he will play more.

Joe Mauer Close to a Deal? Maybe?

2010-02-01T12:39:00.003-05:00

So much for a bidding war for Joe Mauer next winter. Well, not officially. But it certainly doesn't look like Mauer will become a free agent next winter. Not if the Twins have their way:

Everybody I spoke with during TwinsFest believes the team soon will have Joe Mauer signed to a contract extension. Two people (on the fringes), who have their own information pipelines, claimed that the deal's basic framework -- the number of years and guaranteed money -- is already set, with the sides negotiating things such as deferred payments, etc.

Our best sources on this subject, however, insisted there wouldn't be news of an extension all weekend, and they were right. (Clarification: It's important to emphasize here that we have not confirmed that the framework is done. Fringe sources might think so, but those closest to the talks haven't confirmed. The spirit of this blog post was "gut feelings and hot tips," but some media outlets are running with this as hard information.)

Mauer said Friday he doesn't want his contract to become a distraction for the team. But there is hardly widespread panic that the Twins are going to lose him to free agency.

I'm confident an extension is coming. It's a matter of when, not if.

Any predictions about what Mauer's extension might look like? I'm sticking to my 6 years/$120 million dollar prediction.

Is Johnny Damon A Fit With the Rays?

2010-01-28T10:20:00.001-05:00

With almost no suitors to speak of, could the Rays make a move for Johnny Damon? According to Joel Sherman, it could happen:

A darkhorse has emerged in pursuit of Johnny Damon, and it is an AL East rival of the Yankees.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been in regular contact with Scott Boras about adding Damon to be their primary DH, The Post has learned.

With the signing of Randy Winn, the Yankees are no longer hedging on Damon, but instead are saying there is zero chance of his return to New York.

You have to wonder just how much more payroll the Rays can actually add this season. I thought they were stretching their limited resources by signing Rafael Soriano, but adding Damon would surely bring the Rays payroll over the $70 million mark. I'm skeptical that the Rays are willing to add another $5-$7 million to their payroll.

But then again, 2010 might be the Rays best chance to win. Remember, after the season, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena will be free agents and the chances are high that the Rays will lose both players. There is a significant argument to be made that if the Rays are going to win, that now is the time. If that's the case, then bringing a guy like Damon on board for a year would boost the Rays' chances of winning and give them one of the best lineups on paper in baseball.

A's Sign Ben Sheets; What Should the Mets Do Next?

2010-01-26T13:15:00.002-05:00

With Ben Sheets now officially off the board thanks to a one year/$8 million dollar contract with the Athletics, the team that is left out in the dust one more time is the New York Mets. The Mets were pursuing Sheets, who they hoped would be their #2 starter behind Johan Santana, but ultimately lost out to the Athletics.

The Mets rotation right now currently consists of a whole bunch of question marks:

1. Johan Santana: surgery last September to remove bone chips
2. Mike Pelfrey: Pitched terribly last season (5.03 ERA)
3. John Maine: Can he stay healthy?
4. Oliver Perez: Missed a large portion of the 2009 season; when he did pitch, he pitched terribly (6.82 ERA)
5. Jon Niese/Fernando Nieve/??????

As you can see, the Mets rotation is painfully thin and filled with many unknowns. Is there anyone in that rotation right now that can give the Mets 200 IP? Outside of a healthy Santana, I have serious doubts about spots 2-5. And if Santana isn't healthy, then 2010 could turn out to be just as bad as 2009.

So what should GM Omar Minaya do with Sheets off the board?

1. Scour Free Agent Market
-Erik Bedard, Jon Garland, Jarrod Washburn, John Smoltz, and Chien Ming Wang are the most appealing names left. Bleh. Garland, Washburn, and Wang need to be supplemented by a great defense, which the Mets do not have. No one seems to know the status of Erik Bedard at this point.

2. Trade Market
-Not too many great names left on the market. Maybe Aaron Harang.

3. Stand Pat
-I don't know how Minaya can do this, but if he doesn't find any of the names on the market appealing, then maybe he takes a shot with this group and sees what he's got.

The guy who I think would fit nicely on the Mets is Washburn, who is a fly ball pitcher and might thrive in the spacious Citi Field. Then again, defense is a problem considering that the Mets will be without Beltran for at least the first month, Jason Bay is in left, and Luis Castillo is terrible defensively.

If Bedard can show the Mets that he's healthy and willing to pitch in New York, he'd be a great choice for the Mets considering his high upside. But no one knows if Bedard is healthy and no one knows if he can actually pitch 150 IP+ in a season.

What do you think Minaya should do?

Would the A's Compete For a Playoff Spot If Ben Sheets Signs?

2010-01-26T09:56:00.003-05:00

Billy Beane's aggressive offseason continues with Ben Sheets. Maybe Beane will actually sign a free agent this time:

Confirmed by ML source: #athletics have made "competitive" offer to Ben Sheets and hope to have answer today or Wednesday

Even though the Athletics will have one of the smallest payrolls in baseball this year, GM Billy Beane has been aggressive so far this offseason by making strong offers to both Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro. Sure the Athletics failed to land both guys, but it's clear that the Athletics have money to spend. From an economic perspective, Ben Sheets does not appear to be out of the Athletics price range.

But if the Athletics are going to spend $8-$10 million dollars on Sheets, which could be more than 20% of the Athletics' payroll this year, then there has to be a good reason why Billy Beane would want Sheets. Sheets is viewed as a tremendous talent with lots of upside, but as we all know, Sheets is very injury prone and a near lock to spend some time on the DL in 2010.

The upside for Athletics here is that they would add a potential ace to their rotation, who could lead their stable of young pitchers and probably force one or two of them back to AAA for more seasoning. But even if Sheets is healthy for the Athletics, how much better would the A's be? With Sheets on board, does anyone think that the Athletics are now contenders in the American League?

In my opinion, the Athletics, even with a fully healthy Ben Sheets, would not be serious contenders in 2010. The Athletics starting rotation would be awesome, but I'm not confident that the Athletics would have enough offensive firepower to compete with the Rangers, Angels, and Mariners.

However, given the money the Athletics have burning in their pocket and the limited number of players who fit their offensive needs on the market, going after Sheets is probably the best thing Beane can do right now to improve his team's chances of winning in 2010. Signing Sheets would be a risk for the Athletics, but if he pans out, then the Athletics could have a surprisingly competitive team or at the very least, a valuable commodity to trade.

Just Say No, BJ

2010-01-25T13:01:00.002-05:00

A long term deal for BJ Upton? Doesn't seem out of the question:

#Rays CF B.J. Upton says arbitration won't be a problem and he is "all for" discussing long-term deal

I'm all for long term security and I think it's great that Upton wants to commit to the Rays long term. However, from his economic perspective, now is not the right time to discuss an extension. The reason? Upton is coming off a down season offensively in which he only hit .241 with 11 home runs. The general perception around baseball is that Upton has far more talent than that, but he has yet to truly put it all together (even though his 2007 season was very, very good).

A long term contract for Upton would be in the Rays best interests because it would keep Upton's salary under control for the foreseeable future and lock up one of their most promising talents. Even though Upton is under team control through the 2013 season, the reality is that Upton is one big season away from a huge pay raise thanks to arbitration. It would be beneficial for the Rays to sign Upton long term now because his value at its lowest point, which means that Upton's price will be lower now than it was in 2008 and probably lower than it will be after the 2010 season.

If Upton is only concerned about long term security, then it would make sense for him to sign a deal now. But if he is interested in maximizing his earning potential, then it's in his best interests not to sign a deal now, play the market out year to year, and put together a big season that puts him back on the map as one of the game's most exciting young players.

Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena Are Destined to Leave the Rays

2010-01-25T10:15:00.000-05:00

Nothing shocking here:

5. Carl Crawford, LF, Rays - The feeling is that if the Rays’ financial picture gets any gloomier, Crawford will be trade bait by the trading deadline or even earlier. In fact, both he and Carlos Pena could have new addresses at some point in the season.

Both Crawford and Pena will be free agents at the end of the season and there is little chance that the Rays will be able to keep one of them, let alone both. Pena and Crawford combined will earn just over $20 million this season, which will be about 30% of the Rays payroll. For a small market team like the Rays, it's tough to justify committing such a high percentage of your resources to just two players, even if both players are peak performers.

The reality for the Rays is that if Crawford and Pena produce this season, then each of them should be in line for a nice raise next season. Even though the Rays have plenty of money coming off the books after 2010 ($36 million from Pena, Crawford, Soriano, and Burrell), there is very little chance that they will be able to compete on the open market with the big market clubs for either player.

Even though Pena and Crawford are near locks to leave after the season, I still think the Rays are in a good position right now. If the team competes in 2010, then the Rays can hold Pena and Crawford , play the season out, hope for the best, collect draft picks when they leave, and then re-distribute their resources. If the team struggles, then Crawford and Pena become prime trade bait if the return for either player is high enough.

Doug Davis vs. Randy Wolf

2010-01-21T12:55:00.002-05:00

Pitcher A

2009 Season: 9-14, 4.12 ERA, 34 starts, 203 IP, 146 K, 6.4 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, .294 BABIP, 4.84 FIP

Career: 90-97, 4.31 ERA, 6.67 K/9, 4.06 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 4.41 FIP

Pitcher B

2009 Season: 11-7, 3.23 ERA, 34 starts, 214 IP, 160 K, 6.72 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, .257 BABIP, 3.96 FIP

Career: 101-85, 4.13 ERA, 7.42 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, .294 BABIP, 4.28 FIP

************ **********

Both pitchers signed with the Milwaukee Brewers this offseason. Both pitchers are left handed.

Player A will be 35 this year. Player B will be 34.

Pitcher A landed a 1 year/$4.25 million dollar contract with a mutual option for 2011.

Pitcher B landed a 3 year/$29 million dollar contract.

Pitcher A is Doug Davis. Pitcher B is Randy Wolf.

Based on their career stats, these two pitchers are very similar. They have similar career ERAs, BABIPs, and FIPs. The biggest difference between the two guys is that Wolf strikes out more hitters and Davis walks many more hitters. In fact, before the 2009 season, Wolf and Davis had very similar careers. Both guys were thought of as solid middle of the rotation left handed starters, who could eat innings.

But all that changed in 2009. While Davis produced another solid yet unspectacular season, Wolf became the Dodgers ace and put together the best season of his career. Wolf's success was in large part because of his low BABIP (.257), which was the best in the league according to fangraphs. Whether you attribute Wolf's low BABIP to luck, Dodger Stadium, hitters making bad contact, or some combination of the three; the result was that Randy Wolf became one of the most attractive pitchers on the free agent market and the only starting pitcher other than Lackey and Chapman to land a contract that guaranteed him at least three years.

It would not surprise me in the slightest bit if Wolf and Davis put up statistically similar seasons in 2010. Wolf is the better pitcher at this point, but the difference between these two pitchers is not as big as their contracts this winter would suggest. Only time will tell if Randy Wolf's 2009 season was an aberration, but it's clear that Wolf's success in 2009 was the main difference why Wolf landed almost $30 million guaranteed while Doug Davis had to settle for only $4.25 guaranteed.

Risk/Reward of the Doug Davis Signing

2010-01-21T12:30:00.000-05:00

1 year/$4.25 million (with a mutual option for 2011):

Free agent starter Doug Davis has reached preliminary agreement with the Milwaukee Brewers on a one-year, guaranteed $5.25 million contract, a baseball source told ESPN.com.
The deal is contingent on Davis passing a physical exam.

Davis joins Randy Wolf as the second lefty free agent to sign with Milwaukee this offseason. He pitched previously for the Brewers from 2004 through 2006, posting records of 12-12, 11-11 and 11-11 in his three seasons with Milwaukee.
Davis will make a base salary of $4.25 million in 2010. The contract includes a $1 million buyout and an additional $1 million in incentives based on starts and innings pitched.

The Brewers entered the offseason with the goal of improving their starting pitching and this deal helps them achieve that goal at a minimal risk:

Risk:

Is the Brewers rotation too left handed?
walks too many hitters
not great against left handed hitters

Reward:

Adds depth and consistency to the Brewers rotation
Only a one year commitment
Innings eater

Conclusion: This deal is yet another signal that the Brewers are going for it in 2010 and 2011. And I, for one, love that attitude. With Prince Fielder under team control for only another two years, this is the Brewers best chance to win a championship and GM Doug Melvin is working within his resources to give the Brewers the best chance to win. Sure Doug Davis is not a big name or a sexy signing, but Davis can bring a lot to the table for the Brewers. For a reasonable price, Davis should give the Brewers around 180-200 IP this season and produce an ERA somewhere in the 4s. Given how unstable and unreliable the Brewers starting pitchers were last season, Davis's consistency is exactly what the Brewers need.

Risk/Reward of the Joel Pineiro Signing

2010-01-21T10:40:00.000-05:00

2 years/$16 million:

The Angels reached an agreement with free agent right-hander Joel Pineiro on a two-year deal worth $16 million, two sources told SI.com on Wednesday night.

The move comes somewhat as a surprise, as earlier reports had the Mets and Dodgers as the front-runners for the Pineiro's services. But news of the Angels' interest heightened on Wednesday when Newsday reported the Angels were the veteran's top choice. Additionally, ESPN.com reported that the deal is pending a physical, which will be held Thursday. An Angels spokesperson, however, said the club "had nothing to announce at this time."
Pineiro, who went 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA in 32 starts with the Cardinals in 2009, will help solidify an Angels rotation that already has four quality starters in Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana.

With the addition of Pineiro, the Angels now have a strong starting rotation on paper, but this deal is risky from the Angels' perspective:

Risk

Was Pineiro's 2009 season a fluke?
Is Pineiro worth $8 million dollars a year?
How will he fare in the American League?

Reward

Only a two year commitment
Adds SP depth
Angels now have a very deep rotation
Very effective when he keeps the ball down in the zone

Conclusion: The bottom line is this: if Joel Pineiro comes close to matching his 2009 performance for the Angels, then this contract will work out swimmingly for the Angels. Pineiro was fantastic last season for the Cardinals and not only turned his career around, but he showed the baseball world what he could do with his sinker when he kept the ball down. However, there are a number of questions about Pineiro that makes this deal a risk for the Angels. Can he pitch in the AL? Was Pineiro's 2009 season a fluke? The Angels are certainly hoping that Pineiro's career has turned a corner and that the 2009 Pineiro is the guy that they signed.

Why Did the Giants Re-Sign Bengie Molina?

2010-01-20T14:03:00.002-05:00

Reasons why the Giants signed Bengie Molina:

1. He calls a good game

2. The Giants felt that Buster Posey was not ready

3. Offensive production

Offensive production! Wait, really...offensive production:

No longer must the Giants worry about replacing the 20 home runs and 80 RBIs Molina provided last year, though they have attempted to bolster the offense this offseason by signing free agents Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff. After spending most of the previous two seasons batting fourth -- a role for which even he admitted he was miscast -- Molina is now likely to bat fifth or sixth, which should increase his comfort level and could deepen the Giants' lineup.

To me, this move represents everything that is wrong with the Giants right now. Instead of pursuing a player who could dramatically make the Giants lineup better, Sabean opted to spend his money in multiple places hoping to make the Giants lineup deeper and more potent. But even after adding Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa to the fold, Sabean realized that he still need a middle of the order hitter, who could give the Giants the punch they needed.

In addition, the catching market was so poor that Molina, who was considered to be the top catcher on the free agent market, was not likely to land anything more than a one year deal with an option. Once Molina decided to take a one year deal, he fell into the Giants lap. The Giants have gone after veteran players over the past few seasons with short contracts and the one they gave Molina is no exception.

Because of his limited resources and strange affinity for aging players with low OBPs, Sabean went after Molina. Ultimately, I think the Giants could have allocated their resources better because I don't think Huff, DeRosa, and Molina will improve their offense that much. But it's clear to me that the Giants value Bengie Molina a lot more than most teams do.

Why Orlando Cabrera Is Still Unsigned

2010-01-20T11:23:00.003-05:00

Last winter, free agent SS Orlando Cabrera struggled badly to find suitors for his services. The reason? Cabrera was a Type A free agent and no team wanted to surrender a first round pick for his services. Cabrera eventually signed a one year/$4 million dollar contract with the Athletics in March that ensured that if Cabrera was a type A free agent again next winter, that the team could not offer him arbitration. The reasoning behind this move was obvious: Cabrera and his agent figured that if teams did not have to surrender a draft pick for Cabrera that he would have a better chance to land a multi year deal.

Despite putting up solid offensive numbers with the Athletics and Twins in 2009, the market for Orlando Cabrera this winter has been very quiet. Why? Maybe Cabrera's demands are excessive. Maybe not enough teams are looking for a shortstop. Maybe teams are shying away from Cabrera because of his low OBP. All of those could very well be the reason why.

But I think the main reason why Orlando Cabrera remains unsigned right now is because of his defense. Teams have begun to emphasize defense and the importance of defensive statistics this winter, and Cabrera's 2009 defensive stats were horrific. According to fangraphs, Cabrera's UZR last season was a staggeringly bad -13.7, which represents a sharp decline in Cabrera's defense from 2008 (13.1). Because of his terrible defense, it's easy to see why teams would shy away from Cabrera despite his production at the dish.

Even though Orlando Cabrera is no longer hamstrung by his Type A status like he was last winter, his struggles defensively have hindered his free agency this winter.

Eight Costly Decisions This Winter

2010-01-20T09:20:00.001-05:00

In no particular order:

1. Jarrod Washburn turns down 1 year/$5 million dollar offer from the Twins

-Given how many starting pitchers are on the market right now and how poorly Washburn ended the 2009 season, why in the world did he turn this down?

2. Russell Branyan turns down 1 year deal from the Mariners

-Branyan wanted a multi year contract and some long term security, but concerns about his back have shied teams away and he remains on the market. Branyan will probably wind up with a one year deal, but I imagine that the base salary will be less than what the Mariners initially offered.

3. Adam LaRoche turns down 2 year/$17 million dollar offer from the Giants

-Sure, this offer was not the 3 year/$31 million dollar deal LaRoche wanted, but this was the best offer LaRoche received. However, LaRoche opted to sign a one year deal with the Diamondbacks because he felt uncomfortable playing in the Giants' spacious ballpark.

4. Jose Valverde declines the Astros' arbitration offer

-A baffling move based on emotion that probably will cost Valverde millions this winter.

5. Johnny Damon turns down the Yankees' 2 year/$14 million dollar offer

-Damon clearly overestimated his value on the market and by rejecting this offer, Damon might have turned down his best chance at a multi year deal.

6. Adrian Beltre declines the Mariners' arbitration offer

-Beltre declined the Mariners' offer, which would have been around $12 million, in the hopes of landing a multi year contract. However, the multi year deal never came and Beltre signed a 1 year/$7 million dollar contract with the Red Sox. Economically, it was a costly move, but from a baseball perspective, Beltre should flourish.

7. Bengie Molina turns down the Mets 1 year offer w/player option; signs a 1 year/$4.5 million dollar deal with the Giants instead.

-More on this deal later today, but like so many others, I'm dumbfounded by this deal.

8. Yorvit Torrealba comes thisclose to signing a 2 year/$6 million dollar contract with the Rockies; remains unsigned

-Torrealba might be able to land a contract similar to this on the open market (still), but with options dwindling, I imagine that he will be stuck taking a one year deal with a low base salary.

Did the Rockies Overpay Huston Street?

2010-01-19T14:43:00.003-05:00

3 years/$22.5 million:

The Rockies agreed to multiyear contracts with relief pitchers Huston Street and Rafael Betancourt, FOXsports.com has learned, giving the Rockies 11 players signed to contracts that tie them to the Rockies through at least 2011.

And that doesn’t include manager Jim Tracy, who earlier in the offseason signed a three-year deal that FOXsports.com has learned has a $4.4 million guarantee.

Street, who is arbitration eligible and would have been able to become a free agent after the season, has agreed to a three-year deal with an option on a fourth year that guarantees him $22.5 million. The finalizing of the deal is pending Street undergoing a physical when he is in Denver this weekend for the Rockies fanfest. As a result of the delay both the Rockies and the Hendricks brothers, who represent Street, will file arbitration figures.

To me, this deal is a double edge sword for the Rockies.

On one hand, Street was likely to earn around $7 million this season through arbitration, so it's not like the Rockies are giving Street a massive raise this season. And $22.5 million over three years for a young, quality closer like Street does not seem outlandish when compared to what other closers make.

But once again, it comes back to this: should a small market team like the Rockies invest so heavily in a closer? If the Rockies 2010 payroll is somewhere in the $75 million dollar range, then does it make sense for them to commit almost 10% of their payroll to a pitcher, who likely will throw no more than 70 innings this season. In addition, given the unpredictability of relief pitchers, does it make sense for the Rockies to throw so much money at a closer when they have a limited budget to work with?

What do you think?

The Mets and Bengie Molina Just Cannot Come to Terms

2010-01-19T14:05:00.002-05:00

From ESPN's Buster Olney:

Heard this: Bengie Molina has turned down the Mets' most recent offer, and the Mets are beginning to focus on Joel Pineiro...

I find it hard to believe that Molina is playing hardball with the Mets at this point. There are very few teams out there looking for a starting catcher at this point and even fewer that are willing to pay $6 million annually over two seasons. Outside of the Mets and maybe the Mariners, what other teams need a starting catcher? The Mets offer, either a two year deal or a one year deal with an option, would seem to be the best offer Molina will see this winter.

It must be difficult for Molina to only get one year guaranteed when far inferior catchers like Jason Kendall, Ivan Rodriguez, and Brian Schneider all landed two years earlier this winter. Who knows? Maybe Molina really doesn't want to play for the Mets, but right now, it doesn't look like he has too many other/better options.

The Mets are still in a position of strength when it comes to catchers. Besides the four they currently have on the roster, the Mets can opt to go after free agent catchers Rod Barajas or Yorvit Torrealba, both of whom should command far less than what Molina is looking for.

Mariners Sign Felix Hernandez

2010-01-19T10:40:00.000-05:00

The Seattle Mariners have made some stellar moves already this winter, but this one is probably the most important:

The Seattle Mariners have been shuffling the deck, but it looks like they'll keep their ace.
On the eve of exchanging salary figures for arbitration, right-hander Felix Hernandez has agreed to a multiyear contract with the team, pending a physical, a source with direct knowledge of the talks told ESPN.com's Keith Law on Monday.
The amount or length of the deal were not immediately available.

Huge move for the Mariners. There's no denying how important it was for the Mariners to lock up Hernandez long term and getting it done this winter is just another notch on GM Jack Zduriencik's belt.

The length of the contract will ultimately determine just how beneficial this contract is to the Mariners.

A three year deal only buys out one year of free agency
A four year deal buys out two years of free agency
A five year deal buys out three years of free agency
A six year deal buys out four years of free agency

From the Mariners' perspective, I'm sure they'd like to buy out as many of Felix's free agent seasons as possible given his performance and age. A six year contract would be ideal.

You can make the case that Hernandez certainly left money on the table by signing with the Mariners now as opposed to waiting two years for free agency, but the Mariners strong offseason must've shown Hernandez that the Mariners are serious about winning. From Hernandez's perspective, there's no reason to bolt from Seattle to the Yankees or Red Sox when the Mariners are surrounding him with a great community, beautiful ballpark, great players, fantastic defense, lots of money, and most importantly, a great chance to win.

Should the Mets Have Tried to Sign Adam LaRoche?

2010-01-14T14:05:00.001-05:00

When news came down last night that Carlos Beltran was going to be sidelined for the next 8-12 weeks and probably miss the beginning of the season, my immediate concern was the Mets offense. Defensively, the Mets have at least two average options to replace Beltran in Fernando Martinez and Angel Pagan. But offensively, there is neither guy will come close to replacing Beltran's production or impact at the plate. And even though the Mets had already signed Jason Bay, the reality is that their offense will take a big hit without Beltran.

What made the Beltran news even worse for the Mets is that the number of free agent options to replace Beltran are dwindling. Marlon Byrd is off the market. Mike Cameron is off the market. Coco Crisp is off the market. So unless the Mets want to take a chance on Rick Ankiel, there really is no free agent option out there that is significantly better than Pagan or Martinez.

So if the Mets were going to stick with Pagan/Martinez in center, then where would the offense come from? As I scrolled through the free agent market last night, the one segment of the market that I felt the Mets could take advantage of was first base. With Adam LaRoche and even Russell Branyan still out there, the Mets could have signed a power hitter to a low cost contract, who hopefully would have picked up the offensive slack with Beltran out of the lineup and would not have blocked Ike Davis. With Beltran fully healthy and productive, the Mets can afford to live with Daniel Murphy at first base, but without Beltran, it's much tougher to depend on Murphy as their everyday first baseman. Murphy is a nice player, who could develop into something special, but if the Mets are serious about winning in 2010 with or without Carlos Beltran, then they will need more offensively out of first base.

But this morning, LaRoche signed with the Diamondbacks. It's tough to fault the Mets for not signing LaRoche only 12 hours or so after losing Beltran, but somewhere in his mind, Omar Minaya should be pissed that a player of LaRoche's caliber, who would have been a great fit for the "pre Beltran 2010 Mets", signed for such a reasonable amount of money and such a short period of time.

We'll see how the Mets choose to move forward. Obviously, they think that Benjie Molina will help pick up the slack offensively, but his bat alone will not be enough. It would not surprise me to see the Mets not make any major moves and simply survive until Beltran comes back, but as we saw last year, that plan is shaky.

Risk/Reward of the Adam LaRoche Signing

2010-01-14T12:47:00.002-05:00

Adam LaRoche turned down a 2 year/$17 million dollar offer from the Giants a few weeks back. Today, LaRoche signed a one year deal with the Diamondbacks worth roughly $4-$6 million dollars.

Talk about a costly decision:

The signing -- still pending a physical -- would mean LaRoche becomes the team's everyday first baseman. That moves Conor Jackson to left field and makes Gerardo Parra the club's fourth outfielder.
LaRoche batted .277 with 25 homers and 83 RBIs in 150 games for the Pirates, Red Sox and Braves in 2009. The 30-year-old lefty hitter has notched 20-plus homers in each of his past five seasons -- including 32 with the Braves in '06 -- and sports a career .274 batting average with 136 homers in six seasons in the big leagues.

From the Diamondbacks' perspective, it's easy to like this deal because it offers lots of reward and very little risk.

Risk

potentially blocks Brandon Allen for a year (which might not be a bad thing)
Conor Jackson in left field-how will he fare?
No longer interested in Jose Valverde?

Reward

short term commitment
Makes lineup deeper and more potent
Adds some much needed power from the left side
Quality defensive first baseman (should help other infielders)

Conclusion: Aside from the fact that LaRoche made a huge mistake turning down the Giants' contract offer, playing in Arizona should be a nice fit for him. This is a team that is loaded with lots of young and talented offensive players and has a realistic chance at making the playoffs. LaRoche has put up consistently good power numbers throughout his career (20+ HR in every season since 2005), but LaRoche is a streaky hitter and his struggles and the beginning of the season have been well documented.

But this move signals to me that the Diamondbacks are serious about competing in 2010, which is not a surprise given the contract status of ace Brandon Webb. I imagine that by signing LaRoche the Diamondbacks have moved past their payroll threshold for the season, but I would love to see them remain aggressive on the free agent market (Jose Valverde!)

And if by chance the Diamondbacks are not competitive in 2010, then LaRoche could be a useful trade chip at the deadline. Bottom line: if LaRoche is healthy, then I'm confident that this deal will turn out well for the Diamondbacks.

The Weak Market for Orlando Hudson

2010-01-13T11:45:00.001-05:00

Orlando Hudson is asking for $9 million in 2010: No, that's not a joke:

It is believed Hudson is asking for $9 million for 2010, which is too much for the Nationals. And don't look for them to offer Hudson a two-year deal either. In fact, the source believes the Giants set the market for infielders like Hudson when they re-signed Juan Uribe to a one-year, $3.25 million contract on Jan. 5.

If Hudson is seriously looking for $9 million dollars, then he needs a dose of reality. Hudson will not get $9 million in 2010. In fact, he might not come close. Hudson might be the best second baseman on the free agent market, but there are very few teams out there actually looking for a second baseman.

Tigers: ONLY IF the price is right (back up option: Scott Sizemore)
Nationals: ONLY IF the price is right (back up option: Ian Desmond (at SS)
Mets: ONLY IF they are able to trade Luis Castillo

See, none of those teams NEED Hudson. That's the problem. If Hudson was able to develop a market where various teams were competing for his services, then maybe he could come closer to getting the $9 million dollars he seeks. Hudson's case is further hindered because Felipe Lopez, who is the other top second baseman on the market, is still available and is struggling to find interested suitors-just like Hudson. And beyond Hudson and Lopez, there are plenty of cheaper free agent 2Bs still out there: Adam Kennedy, Ronnie Belliard, etc.

Given how terribly Hudson's free agency went last winter, it's easy to understand why he is shooting high this winter. Hudson is now 32 years old and the stats are showing that Hudson is declining (especially defensively) and his chances of landing a lucrative multi year contract are diminishing.

Furthermore, the money is simply not there this winter. Only three free agent position players landed contracts that exceeded $9 million annually: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and Chone Figgins. That fact alone makes it unfathomable to think that Hudson will land anything close $9 million guaranteed.

It's clear to me that the Nationals are the best fit for Hudson at this point, but we'll see if Hudson's price comes down to their level. A incentive laden one year deal would make lots of sense for both sides and at this point, I think Hudson would be giddy if the Nationals offered him a multi year contract.

Two Years for Jose Valverde?

2010-01-13T10:00:00.001-05:00

According to Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, the Tigers are going after Jose Valverde. The potential contract? Two years/$12 million.

Yuck:

Valverde will cost the Tigers plenty if he ends up signing with Detroit. The Tigers must forfeit their first-round draft pick in 2010 (19th overall), just as they likely will be on the hook for a two-year deal, probably in the neighborhood of $12-$13 million.

A two year contract makes all the sense in the world for the Tigers. In exchange for surrendering their first round pick, the Tigers would be acquiring an all-star caliber closer at a bargain basement price. When you consider that almost all of the top closers are paid around $10 million annually, signing Valverde for two years at roughly $6 million annually is certainly a steal.

But for Jose Valverde, a guaranteed two year contract with the Tigers makes little sense. Valverde has little leverage in negotiations because of his type A status and the limited number of teams that are looking for a closer, but unless Valverde insists on taking a multi year contract that is far below what he expected to make this winter, then Valverde and his agent should do everything possible to keep the contract to only a one year guarantee. The hope should be that Valverde can hit the open market again after the 2010 season and come closer to landing the multi year contract worth around $10 million annually.

If the Tigers refuse to give Valverde a straight one year deal, then a mutual option would suffice, but a player option for 2011 would be better. In addition, Valverde's agent needs to insist that if the Tigers sign Valverde, that they cannot offer him arbitration (a la Orlando Cabrera this winter) so that Valverde is not hamstrung by his type A status next winter.

There's no denying that Jose Valverde is in a tough spot right now. But the best thing that Valverde and his agent can do this winter is to get everything in place for Valverde to maximize his earning potential next winter (one year deal, cannot offer arbitration). And look, if the Tigers need Valverde to accept a two year deal to justify losing their first round draft pick, then Valverde should simply move on and look elsewhere...namely Arizona or Houston.

My Apologies

2010-01-11T13:30:00.001-05:00

I'd like to apologize for the lack of content over the last couple of days. I have been dealing with a serious family matter that has put baseball on the back burner for now. I have a few pieces brewing and I expect to have something up tomorrow, but there will be nothing new today.

Thanks for your understanding.

-jorgesaysno

Was Matt Holliday Worth $60 Million More Than Jason Bay?

2010-01-06T10:15:00.001-05:00

Since free agency began in November, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay have been the consensus two best hitters on the free agent market. The general thought seems to be that while Bay is a great hitter, Holliday was the more desirable free agent for several reasons:

-age (almost 30 years old...should be entering prime years)

By contrast, Jason Bay will be 32 years old this season

-defensive ability (6.9 UZR for career...only one season with negative UZR)

By contrast, Jason Bay's career UZR is -7.9 and he has routinely put up statistically terrible defensive seasons

And yes, Holliday is generally thought of as the superior offensive player, even though Bay is a pretty darn good hitter in his own right. Admittedly, it seems that there are roughly a gazillion angles that you could take to examine the offensive ability and production of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday throughout their respective careers.

Matt Holliday:

Matt Holliday played a majority of his career at the very hitter friendly Coors Field. How much did that help him?
Matt Holliday struggled during his brief tenure with the Oakland Athletics. How should that performance be taken into account?
Matt Holliday's offensive numbers exploded once he was traded to the Cardinals. Was his statistical spike simple because of hitting behind Albert Pujols or did Holliday finally find his stroke?

Jason Bay:

For years, Jason Bay performed very well offensively for the Pirates (with the exception of 2007) even though the Pirates offense routinely stunk and Bay was surrounded with sub-par talent. How would Bay's stats be different if he played in a hitter's ballpark with great talent around him?
Over the past year and a half, Jason Bay has been of the Red Sox best hitters and consistently put up big numbers when he was surrounded by great offensive talent. How much did that effect his stats? Does this prove that Bay can hit in both the National and American League?

No matter how you slice it, the point is this: both Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are excellent hitters. In fact, over the past two seasons, Hollday's wRAA (which judges the number of runs over replacement) was 46 and 33.9 (average 39.9) while Bay's wRAA was 32.4 and 36 (average 34.2). So while it's clear that Holliday has been the superior offensive talent, the numbers suggest that Jason Bay is not that far behind Matt Holliday and there is a good chance that Holliday's numbers will decline now that he is away from Coors Field (as evidenced by the drop from 46 (2008 with the Rockies) to 33.9 (2009 with A's/Cardinals).

So I think it's safe to say that Matt Holliday was the more attractive free agent because he was younger than Jason Bay and the superior hitter and defensive player of the two.

But does that justify why Jason Bay only landed a 4 year/$66 million dollar contract with the Mets and why Matt Holliday got a 7 year/$120 million dollar contract with the Cardinals? Is there anyway to justify that Holliday should have landed a contract that is almost $60 million dollars richer than that signed by the second best hitter on the free agent market? I don't think so.

Here's what I think happened: Holliday and Bay both struggled to find teams that were willing to meet their asking price. Bay wanted five years at $16 million annually; Holliday wanted at least seven years at $18 million annually and hoped for a Teixeira-like contract. Why did Holliday come so much closer to his desired contract? Blame it on Boras.

The main suitor for Bay-the Mets-were willing to go four years maximum with Bay and refused to go any higher given how little competition there was for Bay and the risk involved with giving a 32 year old a five year contract. Sure Bay still has the possibility of landing a five year deal, but only four seasons are actually guaranteed with the Mets.

The main suitor for Holliday-the Cardinals-strangely gave into Holliday's contract demands even though there was no other real competition for his services. Hell, Holliday's contract even includes an option for an eighth season! Was that really necessary? The only offer that we know of for Holliday was the five year/$82.5 million dollar offer from the Red Sox (a few weeks back) and the Cardinals simply blew that offer away even though the Red Sox were no longer in the picture. It sure looks like the Cardinals wound up bidding against themselves, even though they eventually landed their guy.

I think the Cardinals could have landed Holliday without guaranteeing a seventh season and including anything about an eighth. Something in the six year/$96 million dollar range would have worked. Maybe the Cardinals got anxious and wanted to have Holliday in the fold ASAP. Maybe the Cardinals wanted to act quickly, fearing that a big market club would swoop in and sign Holliday. Or maybe the Cardinals just really, really like Holliday and they feel comfortable giving him such a large contract.

For my money, I'd take Jason Bay at $66 million over Matt Holliday at $120 anyday.

Risk/Reward of the Matt Holliday Signing

2010-01-06T09:15:00.001-05:00

Almost by default, Matt Holliday and the Cardinals came to terms on a 7 year/$120 million dollar contract. So much for the Yankees:

The St. Louis Cardinals have agreed to a seven-year, $120 million deal with Matt Holliday, SI.com has learned. Holliday will also get a full no-trade clause.

Holliday batted .353 with 13 home runs and 55 RBIs in 63 games with the Cardinals after being acquired in a July trade from the Oakland Athletics. He helped stabilize their batting order by providing a consistent power threat in the cleanup spot behind NL MVP Albert Pujols. When they added Holliday on July 24, the Cardinals led the NL Central by just 1½ games, but by the end of August their lead had swelled to 10 games and they cruised to the division title.

---snip---

The Cardinals are hoping to use this deal to show Albert Pujols how committed they are to winning. Pujols' contract expires after the 2011 season.

While there is a high level of risk involved with this deal, the Cardinals ultimately decided to pull the trigger because there was no competition and Holliday represents a rare opportunity for the Cardinals to dramatically improve their team:

Risk

Severely limits payroll flexibility in the future
Will Matt Holliday be on the decline by the end of the contract?
Did the Cardinals need to give Holliday seven years given how little competition was out there?
Full no trade!

Reward

dynamic 1-2 punch with Pujols; deep and potent lineup
teams can no longer pitch around Pujols like they used to
increases the Cardinals' chances of retaining Pujols after 2011
Are the Cardinals the team to beat in the National League?

Conclusion: The reality of this deal is simple: if the Cardinals win a championship with Holliday and re-sign Pujols, then this deal is a win for the Cardinals. The Cardinals now feature one of the best lineups in the National League and have given the best hitter in the world some much needed protection. From that angle, it's very easy to like this deal. And from Albert Pujols' perspective, it has be great to see the Cardinals spend the big bucks to surround him with impact talent. If you believe that somehow the Holliday signing is linked to Pujols eventually re-signing, then it's very easy to like this deal.

But I have to honest, I'm worried about the future impact of this deal for the Cardinals. If the Cardinals payroll remains around $100 million, then with Holliday on board for $17 million and Pujols on board for roughly $20-$30 million, that would not leave the Cardinals with much room to spend on other players. Can a team with a $100 million dollar payroll win with 40%+ of its payroll committed to two great players? That's the question that Cardinals fans have to be thinking about.

Should Adrian Beltre Have Accepted the Mariners' Arbitration Offer?

2010-01-05T10:30:00.000-05:00

Shortly after Adrian Beltre signed a one year contract with the Red Sox, it became apparent that Beltre left a nice chunk of change on the table. Beltre only got $9 million guaranteed from the Red Sox, a far cry from the 5 year/$65 million dollar deal that agent Scott Boras was looking for.

But there is another interesting sub-plot to the Adrian Beltre signing. Back in December, Beltre declined the Mariners' arbitration offer because he was seeking a multi year contract that exceeded $10 million dollars annually. If Beltre had accepted the Mariners' offer, then he would have been in line to make roughly $12 million in 2010, which is $3 million more than he wound up taking with the Red Sox.

One could say that Beltre and Boras took a calculated risk by declining arbitration in the hopes that a huge contract would be out there for Beltre. Even if that contract was not there, Boras and Beltre obviously felt confident enough in the market that Beltre could land a similar one year contract (around $12 million). Sure Beltre would be leaving money on the table, but the chance to explore the market was a risk worth taking.

Also, the decision to decline arbitration goes right back to earning potential. With what team does Beltre have the best opportunity to land a huge contract? That answer, obviously, was not with the Mariners. Ask yourself this-where does Beltre have the best chance to put up big numbers in 2010-with the Mariners at the spacious SAFECO Field or elsewhere? I'd have to put my money on elsewhere.

So even though Beltre left money on the table just by declining arbitration, in the end I think that was the right move.

Smart Move, Adrian Beltre

2010-01-05T09:15:00.000-05:00

Adrian Beltre signed with the Red Sox yesterday on a one year contract. This deal was somewhat surprising given how focused Beltre and agent Scott Boras were on getting Beltre a multi year deal.

Take it away, John Tomase:

The Red Sox have always liked Adrian Beltre. For much of free agency, they just didn’t like his price.

But that changed when Beltre decided one year in Boston was worth more in the long run than three or four somewhere else. So today he officially agreed to a one-year, $9 million deal with a $5 million player option for 2011, according to a source with knowledge of the discussions. Beltre can also earn a $1 million buyout if he reaches a plate appearances total commensurate with that of a regular, and the contract contains an escalator on the option that’s only triggered if he makes a significant number of plate appearances.

Far from Beltre’s original asking price of five years and $65 million, the one-year deal looks like a bargain for the Red Sox, who are guaranteed a season of Gold Glove defense at third, while leaving fellow Gold Glover Kevin Youkilis at first.

The deal was agreed to in principle on New Year’s Eve and finalized on Sunday night. Beltre turned down more money from at least two teams – he had a four-year offer early in free agency and then a three-year deal for roughly the same annual value as the deal the Red Sox offered – but he chose Boston with an eye on having a big year for a contender and then hitting the market again next year.

Very good decision by Beltre. As I mentioned before, if Beltre wanted to maximize his earning potential in the future, then taking a one year deal now was his best bet. Why? Because the money and years Beltre thought he'd be in line for this winter simply were not there. So by taking a one year deal with Boston, Beltre is putting himself in a fantastic position to have a big year both offensively and defensively should he stay healthy. The Red Sox lineup is deep and talented and playing in Fenway Park will be a plus for Beltre, who I'm sure is thrilled to be away from SAFECO Park.

Also, the inclusion of the $5 million dollar player option for 2011 is interesting because if Beltre stays healthy, then there is almost no chance that he would pick up the option. There are three scenarios in which I can actually see Beltre picking up that option:

he has a terrible season in 2010
misses a significant amount of playing time
the economy completely implodes

With none of those scenarios likely, this deal is likely to just be a one year deal, which should be fine for both sides. The Red Sox retain the ability to make a move for Adrian Gonzalez next winter should he be available and Beltre instantly becomes the best third baseman on the 2010 free agent market (with Cantu, Feliz, Atkins, and Inge right behind).

Jayson Werth=Jason Bay?

2010-01-04T12:00:00.000-05:00

Jayson Werth will become a free agent after this season and MLB.com's Todd Zolecki ponders what kind of deal Werth might command. His guess: 4 years/$64 million (or something similar):

3. Can the Phillies sign Jayson Werth to a contract extension?

Jason Bay could sign a four-year, $64 million contract with the Mets. You've got to think Werth will be able to command a similar contract once he becomes a free agent after next season. And I'm not sure if the Phillies can match that. They've got a ton of free agents coming after the 2011 season, so they will have to determine who they can keep and for how much. The Phillies also have top prospect Domonic Brown coming through the system, but it is unclear if he will he be ready to play every day at the big league level by 2011. But Werth is a rare talent: he can hit for power, he can run, he plays good defense. He would be tough to replace, which is why it would be good to have him around for a while longer.

To date, Werth has only had one above average season (2008) and one stellar season (2009), but that doesn't necessarily mean that Werth won't be able to land a Jason Bay-esque contract. Sure, Bay has far more extensive resume than Werth right now, but as it stands right now, there are plenty of reasons why Werth should be thinking and dreaming big next winter:

1. age
-When Werth becomes a free agent, he will only be 31 years old, which is the age Jason Bay was this winter.

2. Skill set
-As Zolecki noted, Werth is a phenomenal talent and can do just about everything well on the baseball field. While Bay got stuck with the "defensive liability" label this winter, it's nearly impossible to think that Werth will be stuck with the same label next winter because he's been a fantastic defensive player throughout his career. At the dish, Werth can do just about everything: hit for power, get on base, steal bases, score runs, etc. In short, there is plenty to like about Werth's game and ability.

3. Market
-This offseason, there were two prominent free agent hitters on the free agent market: Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Holliday was generally thought of as the better all around player of the two, but their similar offensive ability certainly undercut the market for both players.

The market next winter looks very promising for Werth because there are no other outfielders with his skill set that are still in their prime. Case in point:

Carl Crawford is a fantastic talent and is still in the prime of his career, but his skill set is totally different than Werth
Maggilo Ordonez is a right handed power hitter, but he is past his prime and could be declining
Pat Burrell cannot play defense and might be on the decline offensively
Other options: Adam Dunn (cannot play defense, 1b?, left handed), Jose Guillen (headcase), Eric Byrnes (is he even a starter at this point?)

4. Economy
-The wild card in this equation. Hopefully for Werth, the economy has picked up by next winter and more teams have money to spend on free agents.

So if Werth is able to put together another monster season for the Phils (.275, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 20 SB, .370 OBP), then I would expect him to command a contract that not only matches the 4 year/$64 million that Jason Bay got from the Mets, but it's possible that he could get a larger deal (both money and years).

Forgotten Free Agent: Aubrey Huff

2010-01-04T09:35:00.000-05:00

.304/32 HR/108 RBI/96 R/.360 OBP/.912 OPS

That line is from Aubrey Huff's 2008 season. Pretty impressive stuff, right? During the 2008 season, Huff was one of the top hitters in the American League and finally put together the strong offensive season that so many expected from him.

If Huff was a free agent after the 2008 season, is there any doubt that he would've been in line for a multi-year contract?

But unfortunately for Huff, he became a free agent after the 2009 season, which meant that if Huff wanted to put himself in a good position for free agent riches, then he would have to duplicate his 2008 offensive statistics. Not surprisingly, Huff's offensive stats fell dramatically in 2009, largely because of his struggles against right handed pitching:

.241/15 HR/85 RBI/59 R/.310/.694 OPS

Because of his poor 2009 season, the free agent market for Aubrey Huff has been non existent and through the first six weeks of free agency, Huff's name has rarely been brought up in discussions. The biggest problem facing Huff at the moment is that if he cannot perform at the dish, then he offers little value elsewhere because his defense is so poor. Huff seems destined to land somewhere in the American League where he can DH, but there do not seem to be many teams out there looking for a DH and there are plenty of other free agents out there who bring similar qualities to the table as Huff (Delgado, Branyan, Blalock, LaRoche, Thome, etc.).

So what does this all mean for Huff? In a nutshell, if he is offered the opportunity to DH everyday on a incentive laden one year contract, then he should absolutely take it. It's very doubtful that Huff will land anything more than a one year contract at this point, so Huff should simply be looking for the best opportunity he can find.

Risk/Reward of the Jason Bay Signing

2009-12-29T15:35:00.000-05:00

It looks like Queens was more appealing than Beirut after all for Jason Bay:

Free-agent outfielder Jason Bay has reached agreement on a four-year, guaranteed $66 million contract with the New York Mets, a baseball source confirmed to ESPN.com Tuesday.

The agreement will become official once Bay passes a physical exam sometime next week, the source said. The deal includes a vesting option year that could increase Bay's overall payout to slightly more than $80 million over five years.
WFAN was the first to report the agreement had been reached.
Bay, a three-time All-Star, hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 RBIs for the Boston Red Sox in 2009.

While there is obviously a large amount of risk associated with this deal, I think this was move that the Mets had to make, given how badly they needed a power hitter. And it sure helps that the Mets only had to give Bay, who is one of the best free agents on the market, a four year deal.

Risk:

How much better does Jason Bay make the Mets?
Poor defensive player
Did they overpay?
Backloaded contract
Does he want to play in New York
Do the Mets have enough money to fill other needs?
strikes out a lot

Reward:

Impact bat
Only 4 years guaranteed
Adds much needed power
Improves the Mets' lineup
Good will with fanbase
Finally, a big move.

Conclusion: For all the talk that Bay did not want to play on the Mets, this was a fit that made total sense for both sides. The Mets offense needed a legitimate power hitter and Bay is one of the best power hitters in baseball. From that perspective alone, it's easy to like this deal for the Mets. The thought of Bay hitting fifth behind David Wright and Carlos Beltran sure is appealing.

However, there are some important questions to ask with regards to this deal. Will Jason Bay be an adequate defensive player for the Mets? How will Jason Bay's power numbers react to Citi Field? How will the Mets' future be impacted by this backloaded deal?

This deal is a sure sign that the Mets are going for it now. Because the deal is backloaded, the Mets should have money remaining to spend on other needs. Bay is an important piece for the Mets moving forward, but signing him alone is not enough. The Mets have not done a good enough job over the years finding adequate role players to surround their core group and they need to do everything possible to surround the core with quality players, who can help this team win now. The Mets have one of the best cores in baseball, especially with Bay on board, but the fact remains that a team cannot win with six great players and a bunch of stiffs. The Mets need talent and depth if they are going to have a chance in 2010.

Forgotten Free Agent: Ronnie Belliard

2009-12-29T11:00:00.003-05:00

Over the next couple of days, Jorge Says No! will be highlighting some of the forgotten free agents. You know, the guys that aren't getting much publicity or action on the open market even though they could have a lot to bring to the table. Next up, Ronnie Belliard.

What a difference a month makes.

On August 30th, Ronnie Belliard was traded from the Nationals to the Dodgers, who were in the middle of a pennant race and were looking to shore up their middle infield. In the five months prior, Belliard was only getting sporadic playing time with the Nationals and when he was playing, he wasn't producing. His .246/5 HR/22 RBI/.296 clip in 187 at bats with the Nationals made it very clear that Belliard was no longer in the Nationals' long term plans.

But once Belliard arrived in Los Angeles, he began to hit like crazy and never stopped. In September, Belliard hit a ridiculous .351 with 5 HR, 17 RBI, and a silly .398 OBP. By the middle of the month, Belliard was stealing at bats and starts away from all-star Orlando Hudson and by the time the playoffs rolled around, Belliard was the Dodgers primary second baseman.

However, it appears that Belliard's scorching hot September has not translated into lots of interest on the free agent market. There's a gluttony of second basemen on the free agent market and unfortunately for Belliard, it looks like he is one of the least desirable options out there despite his hot September. Guys like Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez are struggling to find interested suitors, so it's likely that Belliard will have to wait until those guys find homes before he will have any real interest on the market.

You have to wonder if Belliard will be forced to take a minor league deal given how weak the market for second baseman is. I'm sure that would be the worst case scenario for Belliard and his agent, but unless something drastically changes, I'd say the chances of Belliard landing a major league deal are a coin toss at best.

Risk/Reward of the Mark DeRosa Signing

2009-12-29T10:00:00.000-05:00

The Giants have finally made a move to improve their horrific offense. Welcome aboard, Mark DeRosa:

As ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported last week, DeRosa, who turns 35 in February, has been on the verge of accepting a two-year contract offer from the Giants since before Christmas. That offer, according to SI.com, is for a total of $12 million over the two seasons.
DeRosa can play on either corner in the infield or outfield, giving San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy greater flexibility with his lineup. He likely will play third, moving slugger Pablo Sandoval to first and giving the Giants more power and offensive punch at that position.
DeRosa underwent left wrist surgery after the 2009 season, when he batted .250 with a career-best 23 homers to go along with 78 RBIs for Cleveland and St. Louis. He was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals on June 27 but was in the St. Louis lineup for three games before hurting his wrist against San Francisco. He spent a stint on the disabled list for an injury that was later diagnosed as a partially torn tendon sheath.

Keeping the deal to a two year commitment is a major plus, but as you'll see, there's a large amount of risk associated with this deal:

Risk

35 years old
how will he perform after wrist surgery?
DeRosa is not a strong defensive third baseman (-8.7 UZR last season)

Reward

Only two years committed
Reasonable amount of money ($6 million annually)
Very versatile

Conclusion: There are a number of different layers to this deal that we need to pull apart. I think the Giants signed DeRosa to a very team friendly contract that mitigates risk from their perspective and does not hamstring their payroll flexibility. But on the field, there are some issues with this deal. There's no doubt that the Giants will benefit from DeRosa's ability to play all over the field, but the fact remains that DeRosa is a below average defensive third baseman, which is a problem if the Giants do intend to play him there. I would like this deal more for the Giants if they intended to play DeRosa in the outfield where he is stronger defensively.

Also, DeRosa is 35 years old, so you have to wonder how many more good years DeRosa has left. The risk of a statistical decline is strong in this case not only because of DeRosa's age, but because he is coming off wrist surgery.

In addition, the Giants will be looking to DeRosa to add some thump to the heart of their batting order. The Giants offense was anemic last season and finished last in OBP, 2nd to last in home runs, and 13th in runs. While DeRosa is a nice offensive player to have on board, by no means should Giants be counting on him to be the offensive difference maker they need. The Giants should expect a .270-20-80-.350 line from DeRosa; anything more is gravy.

On a positive note, DeRosa is an upgrade offensively from Benjie Molina.

Off Season Winner: JD Drew

2009-12-29T09:00:00.000-05:00

Way back in 2006, JD Drew made the controversial decision to opt out of his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the hopes of landing a more lucrative contract on the free agent market. Drew was due to make $33 million over the next three years with the Dodgers, but thanks to an opt out clause in his contract, he was allowed to leave the Dodgers for the almighty dollar.

Not surprisingly, Drew, who was coming off a fantastic 2006 season with the Dodgers, landed a huge 5 year/$70 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. Drew became the Red Sox' highest paid player and his decision to opt out of his contract netted him a cool $37 million dollars. Not too shabby.

So why did I put JD Drew in the "offseason winners" column this year? Well, because if JD Drew had not opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, then he would have been a free agent after this season. Considering how much Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are struggling to land big contracts on the open market this winter, there is little to no chance that Drew would have landed as lucrative a contract this winter no matter how good his production was.

In a sense, by taking himself off the 2009 free agent market, JD Drew avoided being a free agent in a weak market and maximized his earning potential more than he probably should have been able too.

Forgotten Free Agent: Todd Wellemeyer

2009-12-28T11:40:00.000-05:00

Over the next couple of days, Jorge Says No! will be highlighting some of the forgotten free agents. You know, the guys that aren't getting much publicity or action on the open market even though they could have a lot to bring to the table. First up, Todd Wellemeyer.

For most of his career, Todd Wellemeyer was a average relief pitcher with great stuff and limited success in the major leagues. But in 2007, the Cardinals experimented with Wellemeyer in the starting rotation and by 2008, Wellemeyer was a full time member of the Cardinals starting rotation. Over the course of the 2008 regular season, Wellemeyer was one of the Cardinals best starting pitchers as he produced 13 wins, a 3.71 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an impressive (considering his past history) 2.9 BB/9. All in all, it was a career season for Wellemeyer and it really put him on the map.

However, Wellemeyer's 2009 season was a disaster. Wellemeyer was much more hittable in 2009 and even though he only pitched 122 innings, he gave up nearly as many hits in 2009 as he did in 2008 when he thre 191 innings. His BB rate shot up, his K rate declined, and his WHIP skyrocketed to a destitute 1.77. By the end of the season, Wellemeyer had pitched himself out of the rotation and all the progress that he made in 2008 seemed to be lost.

So where does that leave Wellemeyer now? Well, he is just 31 years old, but aside from his 2008 season, Wellemeyer has never put together a consistently productive season. Nevertheless, I would anticipate that interest in Wellemeyer will heat up after the New Year and that there will be teams going after him hoping that he recaptures his 2008 magic on a low cost one year deal. A team like the Pirates, Mariners, Tigers, Nationals, and Padres all would seem to be logical fits. If Wellemeyer can put together another 2008esque season, then he will be in position to land a more lucrative contract next winter.

Revisiting the Castillo for Byrnes Hypothetical Trade

2009-12-28T10:00:00.000-05:00

A few weeks back, I profiled why a swap of Eric Byrnes for Luis Castillo would make sense for both the Diamondbacks and the Mets. The Mets would finally complete their never ending quest to get rid of Luis Castillo while the Diamondbacks would fill their need at second base, make their offense better, and save money in 2010. This deal would be a classic salary dump for both sides just like the Milton Bradley-Carlos Silva swap was for the Cubs and Mariners, just minus the crazy aspect.

As we sit here on December 28th, this deal still makes far too much sense from both perspectives not to happen.

As Nick Cafardo wrote in yesterday's Boston Globe:

6. Orlando Hudson, 2B, free agent - Seems he was the hot name for a long time, but that has quieted. The Mets remain the most interested, but until they are able to move Luis Castillo - a big if - the Mets may only be able to dream about a Jose Reyes-Hudson DP combo.

Seems like a fair enough point given how little interest the league has in Castillo. But it's clear that for whatever reason, the Mets' love for Orlando Hudson is still strong.

How can the Mets finally satisfy their urge for Orlando Hudson?

Answer: Trade Eric Brynes for Luis Castillo

I know taking on Byrnes' contract (or at least most of it) is not something the Mets should be fond of doing, but if they want to get rid of Luis Castillo that badly, then this is one of the only ways how they can do it. And sure, there is a chance that Byrnes can be a useful player on the Mets, but I don't think he has quite the upside that Castillo has at this stage in his career.

On the plus side, if/when the Mets go after Hudson, they would not have to give up a draft pick for his services and they might even be Hudson's only serious suitor at this point, which means his price is destined to come down.

******* *******

As for the Diamondbacks, the most interesting new development of their offseason is their interest in Jose Valverde, whose market has crashed around him despite his tremendous ability. As Nick Piecoro writes:

But that's not a given. The club had been monitoring closer Jose Valverde's availability, and though Howry's signing makes a Valverde reunion somewhat less likely, team sources say they will continue to track Valverde and theoretically could stretch their budget for him if the cost makes sense.

The Diamondbacks would have to give up a second-round draft pick to sign him, but the savings on signing the pick (about $750,000) could help off-set the cost of Valverde. The number of teams looking for closers and able to afford a big-ticket acquisition seems to be limited.

Bringing Valverde on board would give the Diamondbacks one of the best bullpens in the National League and could spring board them towards contention in 2010. If they have the chance to sign Valverde to a one year contract, that's a move they have to make because the deal offers them virtually no risk and greatly improves their team in 2009.

But given the Diamondbacks payroll restrictions, how can they safely fit Valverde in their budget?

Answer: Trade Eric Brynes for Luis Castillo

Byrnes is making $11 million in 2010, which is a enormous amount of money for a player who won't be starting and for a team that only has a $70-$80 million dollar payroll. By unloading Byrnes' salary (or even most of it), the Diamondbacks would be giving themselves more payroll flexibility for 2010, which should allow them to go after Jose Valverde.

At the same time, the Diamondbacks would be acquiring a potentially valuable asset, who would start at second base and offer a consistent presence in their lineup.

What's not to like?

Off Season Winner: Trevor Hoffman

2009-12-28T08:50:00.000-05:00

Shortly after the season ended, Trevor Hoffman and the Brewers came to terms on a one year/$8 million dollar contract that kept Hoffman in Milwaukee through 2010 and potentially even 2011 thanks to a mutual option. Hoffman, 41, put together a stellar season with the Brewers in 2009 by finishing with 37 saves and an incredible 1.83 ERA.

Given the year Hoffman had with the Brewers in 2009 and his name recognition, it's not hard to see why the Brewers decided to re-sign Hoffman. But what is up for debate is why the Brewers decided to commit 10% of their payroll (roughly $80 million) to a closer when there was such a glut of free agent closers on the market.

As it turns out, the market for closers has been horrible this winter. The top closers on the market are not coming close to making what they anticipated and not one closer has topped $7 million in salary in 2010. Additionally, the best closer on the free agent market, Jose Valverde, is still a free agent with minimal interest from teams around the league because no one wants to give him a multi year contract worth $8-$10 million annually.

So why is Hoffman a offseason winner? Because he did the smart thing by signing early before the market for closers could develop and in turn, getting more guaranteed money in 2010 than any other free agent closer to date. It's hard to say how much Hoffman would have made on the free agent market, but given how things played out this winter, it's hard to imagine that he could have done much better than he did.

How the Athletics Can Sign Adrian Beltre

2009-12-27T13:30:00.001-05:00

One of the most fascinating rumors to come to life over the past few weeks has been the Adrian Beltre to the A's rumor. The normally frugal Athletics are taking a "serious look" at signing Beltre, who at just 30 years old, is one of the best free agents left on the market and by far the best free agent third baseman. As Buster Olney writes:

They are taking a serious look at third baseman Adrian Beltre, who would fit the trend for the defensive-minded metrics crowd this winter: Seattle, Boston and, yes, the Athletics, who have already added Coco Crisp.

In theory, signing Beltre makes tons of sense for the Athletics. The A's need to find a power hitter in the middle of the lineup, who can drive in runs and they need to find a dependable third baseman in place of Eric Chavez, who can play top notch defense and solidify the A's as one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Beltre, who is only 30 years old, fits both of those needs.

But the problem for the Athletics lies in the cost. Even though Beltre had a down season in 2009 and missed plenty of time with injuries, he is thought to be seeking a multi year deal that exceeds $10 million annually. I seriously doubt that the A's would be willing to pay Beltre that much money let alone commit to him for so many seasons given his injury plagued 2010. The Athletics payroll will probably sit somewhere in the $60-$70 million dollar range, which makes it foolish to think that they would commit such a large portion of their payroll to one player.

Luckily for the A's, the market for Beltre has not really developed as he or agent Scott Boras would have hoped. Teams like the Giants, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Mariners have expressed interest in Beltre, but only in the right scenario and only if the price is right. None of those teams seem to have identified Beltre as a top target even though they have far more payroll flexibility than the A's to sign Beltre.

The best and most logical chance that the Athletics have at signing Beltre is by offering him an incentive laden one year contract with a mutual option for 2011. If the Athletics guarantee Beltre something like $6 million in 2010 and offer him another $4-$6 million in incentives, then Beltre could wind up making a substantial amount of money as a free agent next season as long as he stays healthy and productive. In addition, a mutual option of $12 million dollars or so would be sufficient because if Beltre becomes a fit in Oakland, then the A's can keep him as a replacement for Eric Chavez. More likely than not however, if Beltre has a stellar 2010 season, there's no way he would pick up this option.

In short, if Beltre really wants to maximize his earning potential, a one year contract is his best bet. There's no reason to think that if Beltre is healthy and productive in 2010 that he cannot land a lucrative multi year contract next winter given how weak the class of free agent third basemen is.

The Athletics would benefit from this deal because Beltre would be a substantial upgrade in the short term, while offering no long term commitment. For a small market club like the A's, this type of contract is the only one that really makes sense for them financially and gives them the opportunity to put an improved product on the field in 2010.

I know that Beltre specifically declined the Mariners arbitration offer a few weeks back because he was hoping to land a multi year contract. Well, Beltre still might be able to do that, but the years and dollars will be far less than what he expected. The only reason that Beltre should accept a multi year deal is if he thinks that contract is maximizing his earning potential as a healthy and productive player. Given the fact that Beltre is coming off an injury plagued season and is struggling to find teams willing to meet his price on the market, I think it's safe to say that he has virtually no chance to maximizing his earning potential with a multi year deal this winter.

If Beltre comes to this conclusion, then he will become more open to accepting a one year deal.

Risk/Reward of the Kelvin Escobar Signing

2009-12-27T11:00:00.000-05:00

Met fans have been clamoring for Omar Minaya to make a splash and sign a big name free agent. I'm not sure that this signing counts, but Kelvim Escobar is on his way to becoming a New York Met:

I can confirm other reports that the #Mets are on the brink of signing Kelvim Escobar to a one-year, major league contract

By giving Escobar a major league contract, the Mets are certainly adding a level of risk to the deal, but the bigger picture suggests that there is plenty of reward here for the Mets to justify this deal:

Risk:

Escobar has not pitched in nearly two seasons
Escobar has not been a full time relief pitcher since 2002-how good will he be?
Injury history
Major league contract guarantees him spot on the 40 man roster

Reward:

If he is healthy, Escobar has fantastic stuff
Potentially electric set up man
Minimal commitment in both years (1) and dollars
If Escobar is hurt in 2010, there are no future implications of this deal

Conclusion: Given how uneventful the Mets offseason has been so far, I think fans of the team will take any potentially beneficial signing at this point. Even though Escobar has made just one start in two years, if he's healthy, he will have lots of bring to the Mets. Not only will Escobar make their bullpen deeper, but he will give them yet another power arm in addition to Brian Stokes and Bobby Parnell. There is a lot of upside in this deal for the Mets given how much Escobar can bring to the table and how little the Mets are investing in this deal. With that said, the Mets still have plenty of work to do this offseason and hopefully the signings of Escobar and Igarashi, GM Omar Minaya will now shift away from the bullpen and address some of the team's other primary needs (i.e: starting pitching, power hitters, etc.)

As for Kelvim Escobar, the Mets will give him a great opportunity to get his career back on track in the bullpen. I'm sure one of the primary reasons that Escobar signed with the Mets is because they gave him a major league contract. While there were plenty of teams out there interested in Escobar, I'm not sure how many of them were willing to hand Escobar anything more than a minor league deal. Considering that he's only thrown 5 innings in the majors since 2007, the Mets' willingness to give him a major league deal demonstrates how strongly they wanted him and how much they believe in Escobar's stuff.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

2009-12-25T08:00:00.002-05:00

From Jorge Says No! to you and yours, Merry Christmas. No matter what you celebrate this time of year, enjoy yourself and most importantly, be safe.

Thanks once again for reading and being apart of the Jorge Says No! experience. There will be no more posts here for the rest of the day, but we will be back on the 27th for all of you who did not get the right presents or perhaps drank too much egg nog.

And by the way, only 100 days until opening day. We can all be thankful for that.

Risk/Reward of the Justin Duchscherer Signing

2009-12-24T17:35:00.000-05:00

And in a classic Billy Beane signing, it looks like the Athletics have found their ace:

As I reported in this morning's Chronicle, the A's were optimistic about re-signing Justin Duchscherer, and though the team might not announce the agreement until after Christmas, word from multiple sources is that a one-year deal is done pending a physical.

The base salary is $2 million, but Duchscherer could earn as much as $5.5 million with incentives, should he reach benchmarks of 30 starts and 200 innings.

Duchscherer's agent, Damon Lapa, said at the start of the free-agent period that the two-time All-Star was clear with teams that he wanted to be a starter, and considering the incentives package,it is safe to assume that the A's have agreed that that will be the right-hander's role. Duchscherer missed all of last season, first with an elbow problem and then during treatment for clinical depression.

That means, barring other moves, that Duchscherer is likely to be the team's No. 1 starter, as he had been projected to be last year, and he'll be followed by left-handers Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson and right-hander Travor Cahill. The fifth spot will be up for grabs between righty Vin Mazzaro and lefty Gio Gonzalez, with Josh Outman a possibility when he returns from elbow surgery after the All-Star break.

Even though Duchscherer missed all of the 2009 season with various injuries and depression, there is plenty of upside in this deal for the Athletics:

Risk:

Can he stay healthy?
Will Duchscherer throw more than 150 innings (which is a feat he has never accomplished before)

Reward:

Potential ace
Potential trade bait later in the season if he stays healthy
Veteran leadership
High upside
Dominant pitcher when healthy
Limited money ($2 million) and years (one) invested

Conclusion: There's a lot to like about this deal from the Athletics' perspective because Duchscherer is a guy that they are familiar with, has great stuff, will probably be their ace, and cost them very little. The Athletics lack the resources to go after the top free agent starting pitchers, but they must've been elated to sign Duchscherer to a contract with so little money guaranteed. From Duchscherer's perspective, this deal makes sense because it gives him the opportunity to start in a place that he's familiar with. If Duchscherer has a dynamite 2010 season, then there's no reason to think that he won't be able to land a lucrative contract next winter.

With that said, I don't think the Athletics are a playoff team even with Duchscherer on board, but this signing makes the Athletics' rotation deeper and more potent, should Duchscherer remain healthy.

Risk/Reward of the Fernando Rodney Signing

2009-12-24T16:50:00.000-05:00

The Angels made their second big free agent signing by coming to terms with Fernando Rodney on a two year/$11 million dollar contract:

Angels General Manager Tony Reagins did a little last-minute Christmas shopping today. And while he didn't get exactly what he wanted to put under the tree, he's pretty happy with what he did get -- hard-throwing reliever Fernando Rodney, who set a franchise record by converting 37 of 38 save opportunities for the Detroit Tigers last season.

Rodney, a 32-year-old free agent, agreed in principle to a two-year, $11-million contract to provide depth at the back of an already-deep bullpen that will return major league saves leader Brian Fuentes.

It wasn't, however, the perfect gift. That's because Rodney's 4.40 earned-run average last season was the highest among American League relievers with at least 20 saves. Plus, he is 4-17 with a 4.48 ERA over the past three seasons. And in 2007 and 2008, he missed 20 weeks with tendinitis in his pitching arm.

I am normally a huge fan of Angels GM Tony Reagins, but I'm not a fan of this deal at all. As I've outlined, there is far too much risk involved with this deal even though Rodney does bring some skills to the table.

Risk:

Two years for Fernando Rodney. Really?
Almost $6 million annually is a lot to pay for a set up man, let alone a mediocre one like Rodney
ERA has not been lower than 4 since 2006
Injury history
Career WHIP of 1.42
Lacks control (41 walks last season)
Sure Rodney has closing experience, but that doesn't mean he was a quality closer.

Reward:

Closing experience
Great arm
Gives the Angels another option to close should Fuentes struggle again
Can Fuentes and Rodney become a productive 1-2 punch late in games?

Conclusion: Given how much the Angels bullpen and Brian Fuentes struggled last season, it does not surprise me to see the Angels shore up their bullpen. However, is Rodney really the guy the Angels want? He's far from reliable, walks too many hitters, gives up too many hits, and has never been a dominant pitcher at any point during his seven year career. And in my opinion, giving Rodney two years was a foolish move because it increases the risk associated with this deal. Given how poorly the market for relief pitchers has panned out (besides Brandon Lyon) and how many relief options (Dotel, Gregg, Howry, Park, etc.) remain on the free agent market, there was no reason to commit so heavily to Rodney.

Jose Valverde to the Diamondbacks?

2009-12-24T11:00:00.001-05:00

We're all over the Jose Valverde situation today as Nick Piecoro adds in this note about the Diamondbacks and Valverde:

*Still curious to see what becomes of the situation with RHP Jose Valverde. The Diamondbacks remain interested in bringing him back -- at their price, of course. A scenario the Diamondbacks would consider: Offering him a one-year deal at a lower base salary than what he’s seeking -- say, $5 million -- along with a promise not to offer him arbitration after 2010. That way, he could have another go at the free-agent market next year, unencumbered by draft pick compensation. No idea if Valverde would go for that.

I honestly did not think that the Diamondbacks had the funds to seriously go after Valverde, but this situation actually makes a whole lot of sense. Sure the Diamondbacks already have Chad Qualls, but this move would make their bullpen significantly better. The Diamondbacks would not have to surrender their first round pick and Valverde would have the chance to put up big numbers in Arizona and become an attractive free agent on the market next winter. This scenario would be similar to what happened to Juan Cruz last winter, except that he signed with the Royals on a two year deal, not just one.

Seems like a win-win deal all around to me, that is of course, if the Diamondbacks can afford to sign him.