Jorge Says No!

Was Matt Holliday Worth $60 Million More Than Jason Bay?

2010-01-06T10:15:00.001-05:00

Since free agency began in November, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay have been the consensus two best hitters on the free agent market. The general thought seems to be that while Bay is a great hitter, Holliday was the more desirable free agent for several reasons:

-age (almost 30 years old...should be entering prime years)

By contrast, Jason Bay will be 32 years old this season

-defensive ability (6.9 UZR for career...only one season with negative UZR)

By contrast, Jason Bay's career UZR is -7.9 and he has routinely put up statistically terrible defensive seasons

And yes, Holliday is generally thought of as the superior offensive player, even though Bay is a pretty darn good hitter in his own right. Admittedly, it seems that there are roughly a gazillion angles that you could take to examine the offensive ability and production of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday throughout their respective careers.

Matt Holliday:

Matt Holliday played a majority of his career at the very hitter friendly Coors Field. How much did that help him?
Matt Holliday struggled during his brief tenure with the Oakland Athletics. How should that performance be taken into account?
Matt Holliday's offensive numbers exploded once he was traded to the Cardinals. Was his statistical spike simple because of hitting behind Albert Pujols or did Holliday finally find his stroke?

Jason Bay:

For years, Jason Bay performed very well offensively for the Pirates (with the exception of 2007) even though the Pirates offense routinely stunk and Bay was surrounded with sub-par talent. How would Bay's stats be different if he played in a hitter's ballpark with great talent around him?
Over the past year and a half, Jason Bay has been of the Red Sox best hitters and consistently put up big numbers when he was surrounded by great offensive talent. How much did that effect his stats? Does this prove that Bay can hit in both the National and American League?

No matter how you slice it, the point is this: both Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are excellent hitters. In fact, over the past two seasons, Hollday's wRAA (which judges the number of runs over replacement) was 46 and 33.9 (average 39.9) while Bay's wRAA was 32.4 and 36 (average 34.2). So while it's clear that Holliday has been the superior offensive talent, the numbers suggest that Jason Bay is not that far behind Matt Holliday and there is a good chance that Holliday's numbers will decline now that he is away from Coors Field (as evidenced by the drop from 46 (2008 with the Rockies) to 33.9 (2009 with A's/Cardinals).

So I think it's safe to say that Matt Holliday was the more attractive free agent because he was younger than Jason Bay and the superior hitter and defensive player of the two.

But does that justify why Jason Bay only landed a 4 year/$66 million dollar contract with the Mets and why Matt Holliday got a 7 year/$120 million dollar contract with the Cardinals? Is there anyway to justify that Holliday should have landed a contract that is almost $60 million dollars richer than that signed by the second best hitter on the free agent market? I don't think so.

Here's what I think happened: Holliday and Bay both struggled to find teams that were willing to meet their asking price. Bay wanted five years at $16 million annually; Holliday wanted at least seven years at $18 million annually and hoped for a Teixeira-like contract. Why did Holliday come so much closer to his desired contract? Blame it on Boras.

The main suitor for Bay-the Mets-were willing to go four years maximum with Bay and refused to go any higher given how little competition there was for Bay and the risk involved with giving a 32 year old a five year contract. Sure Bay still has the possibility of landing a five year deal, but only four seasons are actually guaranteed with the Mets.

The main suitor for Holliday-the Cardinals-strangely gave into Holliday's contract demands even though there was no other real competition for his services. Hell, Holliday's contract even includes an option for an eighth season! Was that really necessary? The only offer that we know of for Holliday was the five year/$82.5 million dollar offer from the Red Sox (a few weeks back) and the Cardinals simply blew that offer away even though the Red Sox were no longer in the picture. It sure looks like the Cardinals wound up bidding against themselves, even though they eventually landed their guy.

I think the Cardinals could have landed Holliday without guaranteeing a seventh season and including anything about an eighth. Something in the six year/$96 million dollar range would have worked. Maybe the Cardinals got anxious and wanted to have Holliday in the fold ASAP. Maybe the Cardinals wanted to act quickly, fearing that a big market club would swoop in and sign Holliday. Or maybe the Cardinals just really, really like Holliday and they feel comfortable giving him such a large contract.

For my money, I'd take Jason Bay at $66 million over Matt Holliday at $120 anyday.

Risk/Reward of the Matt Holliday Signing

2010-01-06T09:15:00.001-05:00

Almost by default, Matt Holliday and the Cardinals came to terms on a 7 year/$120 million dollar contract. So much for the Yankees:

The St. Louis Cardinals have agreed to a seven-year, $120 million deal with Matt Holliday, SI.com has learned. Holliday will also get a full no-trade clause.

Holliday batted .353 with 13 home runs and 55 RBIs in 63 games with the Cardinals after being acquired in a July trade from the Oakland Athletics. He helped stabilize their batting order by providing a consistent power threat in the cleanup spot behind NL MVP Albert Pujols. When they added Holliday on July 24, the Cardinals led the NL Central by just 1½ games, but by the end of August their lead had swelled to 10 games and they cruised to the division title.

---snip---

The Cardinals are hoping to use this deal to show Albert Pujols how committed they are to winning. Pujols' contract expires after the 2011 season.

While there is a high level of risk involved with this deal, the Cardinals ultimately decided to pull the trigger because there was no competition and Holliday represents a rare opportunity for the Cardinals to dramatically improve their team:

Risk

Severely limits payroll flexibility in the future
Will Matt Holliday be on the decline by the end of the contract?
Did the Cardinals need to give Holliday seven years given how little competition was out there?
Full no trade!

Reward

dynamic 1-2 punch with Pujols; deep and potent lineup
teams can no longer pitch around Pujols like they used to
increases the Cardinals' chances of retaining Pujols after 2011
Are the Cardinals the team to beat in the National League?

Conclusion: The reality of this deal is simple: if the Cardinals win a championship with Holliday and re-sign Pujols, then this deal is a win for the Cardinals. The Cardinals now feature one of the best lineups in the National League and have given the best hitter in the world some much needed protection. From that angle, it's very easy to like this deal. And from Albert Pujols' perspective, it has be great to see the Cardinals spend the big bucks to surround him with impact talent. If you believe that somehow the Holliday signing is linked to Pujols eventually re-signing, then it's very easy to like this deal.

But I have to honest, I'm worried about the future impact of this deal for the Cardinals. If the Cardinals payroll remains around $100 million, then with Holliday on board for $17 million and Pujols on board for roughly $20-$30 million, that would not leave the Cardinals with much room to spend on other players. Can a team with a $100 million dollar payroll win with 40%+ of its payroll committed to two great players? That's the question that Cardinals fans have to be thinking about.

Should Adrian Beltre Have Accepted the Mariners' Arbitration Offer?

2010-01-05T10:30:00.000-05:00

Shortly after Adrian Beltre signed a one year contract with the Red Sox, it became apparent that Beltre left a nice chunk of change on the table. Beltre only got $9 million guaranteed from the Red Sox, a far cry from the 5 year/$65 million dollar deal that agent Scott Boras was looking for.

But there is another interesting sub-plot to the Adrian Beltre signing. Back in December, Beltre declined the Mariners' arbitration offer because he was seeking a multi year contract that exceeded $10 million dollars annually. If Beltre had accepted the Mariners' offer, then he would have been in line to make roughly $12 million in 2010, which is $3 million more than he wound up taking with the Red Sox.

One could say that Beltre and Boras took a calculated risk by declining arbitration in the hopes that a huge contract would be out there for Beltre. Even if that contract was not there, Boras and Beltre obviously felt confident enough in the market that Beltre could land a similar one year contract (around $12 million). Sure Beltre would be leaving money on the table, but the chance to explore the market was a risk worth taking.

Also, the decision to decline arbitration goes right back to earning potential. With what team does Beltre have the best opportunity to land a huge contract? That answer, obviously, was not with the Mariners. Ask yourself this-where does Beltre have the best chance to put up big numbers in 2010-with the Mariners at the spacious SAFECO Field or elsewhere? I'd have to put my money on elsewhere.

So even though Beltre left money on the table just by declining arbitration, in the end I think that was the right move.

Smart Move, Adrian Beltre

2010-01-05T09:15:00.000-05:00

Adrian Beltre signed with the Red Sox yesterday on a one year contract. This deal was somewhat surprising given how focused Beltre and agent Scott Boras were on getting Beltre a multi year deal.

Take it away, John Tomase:

The Red Sox have always liked Adrian Beltre. For much of free agency, they just didn’t like his price.

But that changed when Beltre decided one year in Boston was worth more in the long run than three or four somewhere else. So today he officially agreed to a one-year, $9 million deal with a $5 million player option for 2011, according to a source with knowledge of the discussions. Beltre can also earn a $1 million buyout if he reaches a plate appearances total commensurate with that of a regular, and the contract contains an escalator on the option that’s only triggered if he makes a significant number of plate appearances.

Far from Beltre’s original asking price of five years and $65 million, the one-year deal looks like a bargain for the Red Sox, who are guaranteed a season of Gold Glove defense at third, while leaving fellow Gold Glover Kevin Youkilis at first.

The deal was agreed to in principle on New Year’s Eve and finalized on Sunday night. Beltre turned down more money from at least two teams – he had a four-year offer early in free agency and then a three-year deal for roughly the same annual value as the deal the Red Sox offered – but he chose Boston with an eye on having a big year for a contender and then hitting the market again next year.

Very good decision by Beltre. As I mentioned before, if Beltre wanted to maximize his earning potential in the future, then taking a one year deal now was his best bet. Why? Because the money and years Beltre thought he'd be in line for this winter simply were not there. So by taking a one year deal with Boston, Beltre is putting himself in a fantastic position to have a big year both offensively and defensively should he stay healthy. The Red Sox lineup is deep and talented and playing in Fenway Park will be a plus for Beltre, who I'm sure is thrilled to be away from SAFECO Park.

Also, the inclusion of the $5 million dollar player option for 2011 is interesting because if Beltre stays healthy, then there is almost no chance that he would pick up the option. There are three scenarios in which I can actually see Beltre picking up that option:

he has a terrible season in 2010
misses a significant amount of playing time
the economy completely implodes

With none of those scenarios likely, this deal is likely to just be a one year deal, which should be fine for both sides. The Red Sox retain the ability to make a move for Adrian Gonzalez next winter should he be available and Beltre instantly becomes the best third baseman on the 2010 free agent market (with Cantu, Feliz, Atkins, and Inge right behind).

Jayson Werth=Jason Bay?

2010-01-04T12:00:00.000-05:00

Jayson Werth will become a free agent after this season and MLB.com's Todd Zolecki ponders what kind of deal Werth might command. His guess: 4 years/$64 million (or something similar):

3. Can the Phillies sign Jayson Werth to a contract extension?

Jason Bay could sign a four-year, $64 million contract with the Mets. You've got to think Werth will be able to command a similar contract once he becomes a free agent after next season. And I'm not sure if the Phillies can match that. They've got a ton of free agents coming after the 2011 season, so they will have to determine who they can keep and for how much. The Phillies also have top prospect Domonic Brown coming through the system, but it is unclear if he will he be ready to play every day at the big league level by 2011. But Werth is a rare talent: he can hit for power, he can run, he plays good defense. He would be tough to replace, which is why it would be good to have him around for a while longer.

To date, Werth has only had one above average season (2008) and one stellar season (2009), but that doesn't necessarily mean that Werth won't be able to land a Jason Bay-esque contract. Sure, Bay has far more extensive resume than Werth right now, but as it stands right now, there are plenty of reasons why Werth should be thinking and dreaming big next winter:

1. age
-When Werth becomes a free agent, he will only be 31 years old, which is the age Jason Bay was this winter.

2. Skill set
-As Zolecki noted, Werth is a phenomenal talent and can do just about everything well on the baseball field. While Bay got stuck with the "defensive liability" label this winter, it's nearly impossible to think that Werth will be stuck with the same label next winter because he's been a fantastic defensive player throughout his career. At the dish, Werth can do just about everything: hit for power, get on base, steal bases, score runs, etc. In short, there is plenty to like about Werth's game and ability.

3. Market
-This offseason, there were two prominent free agent hitters on the free agent market: Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Holliday was generally thought of as the better all around player of the two, but their similar offensive ability certainly undercut the market for both players.

The market next winter looks very promising for Werth because there are no other outfielders with his skill set that are still in their prime. Case in point:

Carl Crawford is a fantastic talent and is still in the prime of his career, but his skill set is totally different than Werth
Maggilo Ordonez is a right handed power hitter, but he is past his prime and could be declining
Pat Burrell cannot play defense and might be on the decline offensively
Other options: Adam Dunn (cannot play defense, 1b?, left handed), Jose Guillen (headcase), Eric Byrnes (is he even a starter at this point?)

4. Economy
-The wild card in this equation. Hopefully for Werth, the economy has picked up by next winter and more teams have money to spend on free agents.

So if Werth is able to put together another monster season for the Phils (.275, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 20 SB, .370 OBP), then I would expect him to command a contract that not only matches the 4 year/$64 million that Jason Bay got from the Mets, but it's possible that he could get a larger deal (both money and years).

Forgotten Free Agent: Aubrey Huff

2010-01-04T09:35:00.000-05:00

.304/32 HR/108 RBI/96 R/.360 OBP/.912 OPS

That line is from Aubrey Huff's 2008 season. Pretty impressive stuff, right? During the 2008 season, Huff was one of the top hitters in the American League and finally put together the strong offensive season that so many expected from him.

If Huff was a free agent after the 2008 season, is there any doubt that he would've been in line for a multi-year contract?

But unfortunately for Huff, he became a free agent after the 2009 season, which meant that if Huff wanted to put himself in a good position for free agent riches, then he would have to duplicate his 2008 offensive statistics. Not surprisingly, Huff's offensive stats fell dramatically in 2009, largely because of his struggles against right handed pitching:

.241/15 HR/85 RBI/59 R/.310/.694 OPS

Because of his poor 2009 season, the free agent market for Aubrey Huff has been non existent and through the first six weeks of free agency, Huff's name has rarely been brought up in discussions. The biggest problem facing Huff at the moment is that if he cannot perform at the dish, then he offers little value elsewhere because his defense is so poor. Huff seems destined to land somewhere in the American League where he can DH, but there do not seem to be many teams out there looking for a DH and there are plenty of other free agents out there who bring similar qualities to the table as Huff (Delgado, Branyan, Blalock, LaRoche, Thome, etc.).

So what does this all mean for Huff? In a nutshell, if he is offered the opportunity to DH everyday on a incentive laden one year contract, then he should absolutely take it. It's very doubtful that Huff will land anything more than a one year contract at this point, so Huff should simply be looking for the best opportunity he can find.

Forgotten Free Agent: Ronnie Belliard

2009-12-29T11:00:00.003-05:00

Over the next couple of days, Jorge Says No! will be highlighting some of the forgotten free agents. You know, the guys that aren't getting much publicity or action on the open market even though they could have a lot to bring to the table. Next up, Ronnie Belliard.

What a difference a month makes.

On August 30th, Ronnie Belliard was traded from the Nationals to the Dodgers, who were in the middle of a pennant race and were looking to shore up their middle infield. In the five months prior, Belliard was only getting sporadic playing time with the Nationals and when he was playing, he wasn't producing. His .246/5 HR/22 RBI/.296 clip in 187 at bats with the Nationals made it very clear that Belliard was no longer in the Nationals' long term plans.

But once Belliard arrived in Los Angeles, he began to hit like crazy and never stopped. In September, Belliard hit a ridiculous .351 with 5 HR, 17 RBI, and a silly .398 OBP. By the middle of the month, Belliard was stealing at bats and starts away from all-star Orlando Hudson and by the time the playoffs rolled around, Belliard was the Dodgers primary second baseman.

However, it appears that Belliard's scorching hot September has not translated into lots of interest on the free agent market. There's a gluttony of second basemen on the free agent market and unfortunately for Belliard, it looks like he is one of the least desirable options out there despite his hot September. Guys like Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez are struggling to find interested suitors, so it's likely that Belliard will have to wait until those guys find homes before he will have any real interest on the market.

You have to wonder if Belliard will be forced to take a minor league deal given how weak the market for second baseman is. I'm sure that would be the worst case scenario for Belliard and his agent, but unless something drastically changes, I'd say the chances of Belliard landing a major league deal are a coin toss at best.

Risk/Reward of the Jason Bay Signing

2009-12-29T15:35:00.000-05:00

It looks like Queens was more appealing than Beirut after all for Jason Bay:

Free-agent outfielder Jason Bay has reached agreement on a four-year, guaranteed $66 million contract with the New York Mets, a baseball source confirmed to ESPN.com Tuesday.

The agreement will become official once Bay passes a physical exam sometime next week, the source said. The deal includes a vesting option year that could increase Bay's overall payout to slightly more than $80 million over five years.
WFAN was the first to report the agreement had been reached.
Bay, a three-time All-Star, hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 RBIs for the Boston Red Sox in 2009.

While there is obviously a large amount of risk associated with this deal, I think this was move that the Mets had to make, given how badly they needed a power hitter. And it sure helps that the Mets only had to give Bay, who is one of the best free agents on the market, a four year deal.

Risk:

How much better does Jason Bay make the Mets?
Poor defensive player
Did they overpay?
Backloaded contract
Does he want to play in New York
Do the Mets have enough money to fill other needs?
strikes out a lot

Reward:

Impact bat
Only 4 years guaranteed
Adds much needed power
Improves the Mets' lineup
Good will with fanbase
Finally, a big move.

Conclusion: For all the talk that Bay did not want to play on the Mets, this was a fit that made total sense for both sides. The Mets offense needed a legitimate power hitter and Bay is one of the best power hitters in baseball. From that perspective alone, it's easy to like this deal for the Mets. The thought of Bay hitting fifth behind David Wright and Carlos Beltran sure is appealing.

However, there are some important questions to ask with regards to this deal. Will Jason Bay be an adequate defensive player for the Mets? How will Jason Bay's power numbers react to Citi Field? How will the Mets' future be impacted by this backloaded deal?

This deal is a sure sign that the Mets are going for it now. Because the deal is backloaded, the Mets should have money remaining to spend on other needs. Bay is an important piece for the Mets moving forward, but signing him alone is not enough. The Mets have not done a good enough job over the years finding adequate role players to surround their core group and they need to do everything possible to surround the core with quality players, who can help this team win now. The Mets have one of the best cores in baseball, especially with Bay on board, but the fact remains that a team cannot win with six great players and a bunch of stiffs. The Mets need talent and depth if they are going to have a chance in 2010.

Risk/Reward of the Mark DeRosa Signing

2009-12-29T10:00:00.000-05:00

The Giants have finally made a move to improve their horrific offense. Welcome aboard, Mark DeRosa:

As ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported last week, DeRosa, who turns 35 in February, has been on the verge of accepting a two-year contract offer from the Giants since before Christmas. That offer, according to SI.com, is for a total of $12 million over the two seasons.
DeRosa can play on either corner in the infield or outfield, giving San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy greater flexibility with his lineup. He likely will play third, moving slugger Pablo Sandoval to first and giving the Giants more power and offensive punch at that position.
DeRosa underwent left wrist surgery after the 2009 season, when he batted .250 with a career-best 23 homers to go along with 78 RBIs for Cleveland and St. Louis. He was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals on June 27 but was in the St. Louis lineup for three games before hurting his wrist against San Francisco. He spent a stint on the disabled list for an injury that was later diagnosed as a partially torn tendon sheath.

Keeping the deal to a two year commitment is a major plus, but as you'll see, there's a large amount of risk associated with this deal:

Risk

35 years old
how will he perform after wrist surgery?
DeRosa is not a strong defensive third baseman (-8.7 UZR last season)

Reward

Only two years committed
Reasonable amount of money ($6 million annually)
Very versatile

Conclusion: There are a number of different layers to this deal that we need to pull apart. I think the Giants signed DeRosa to a very team friendly contract that mitigates risk from their perspective and does not hamstring their payroll flexibility. But on the field, there are some issues with this deal. There's no doubt that the Giants will benefit from DeRosa's ability to play all over the field, but the fact remains that DeRosa is a below average defensive third baseman, which is a problem if the Giants do intend to play him there. I would like this deal more for the Giants if they intended to play DeRosa in the outfield where he is stronger defensively.

Also, DeRosa is 35 years old, so you have to wonder how many more good years DeRosa has left. The risk of a statistical decline is strong in this case not only because of DeRosa's age, but because he is coming off wrist surgery.

In addition, the Giants will be looking to DeRosa to add some thump to the heart of their batting order. The Giants offense was anemic last season and finished last in OBP, 2nd to last in home runs, and 13th in runs. While DeRosa is a nice offensive player to have on board, by no means should Giants be counting on him to be the offensive difference maker they need. The Giants should expect a .270-20-80-.350 line from DeRosa; anything more is gravy.

On a positive note, DeRosa is an upgrade offensively from Benjie Molina.

Off Season Winner: JD Drew

2009-12-29T09:00:00.000-05:00

Way back in 2006, JD Drew made the controversial decision to opt out of his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the hopes of landing a more lucrative contract on the free agent market. Drew was due to make $33 million over the next three years with the Dodgers, but thanks to an opt out clause in his contract, he was allowed to leave the Dodgers for the almighty dollar.

Not surprisingly, Drew, who was coming off a fantastic 2006 season with the Dodgers, landed a huge 5 year/$70 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. Drew became the Red Sox' highest paid player and his decision to opt out of his contract netted him a cool $37 million dollars. Not too shabby.

So why did I put JD Drew in the "offseason winners" column this year? Well, because if JD Drew had not opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, then he would have been a free agent after this season. Considering how much Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are struggling to land big contracts on the open market this winter, there is little to no chance that Drew would have landed as lucrative a contract this winter no matter how good his production was.

In a sense, by taking himself off the 2009 free agent market, JD Drew avoided being a free agent in a weak market and maximized his earning potential more than he probably should have been able too.

Forgotten Free Agent: Todd Wellemeyer

2009-12-28T11:40:00.000-05:00

Over the next couple of days, Jorge Says No! will be highlighting some of the forgotten free agents. You know, the guys that aren't getting much publicity or action on the open market even though they could have a lot to bring to the table. First up, Todd Wellemeyer.

For most of his career, Todd Wellemeyer was a average relief pitcher with great stuff and limited success in the major leagues. But in 2007, the Cardinals experimented with Wellemeyer in the starting rotation and by 2008, Wellemeyer was a full time member of the Cardinals starting rotation. Over the course of the 2008 regular season, Wellemeyer was one of the Cardinals best starting pitchers as he produced 13 wins, a 3.71 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an impressive (considering his past history) 2.9 BB/9. All in all, it was a career season for Wellemeyer and it really put him on the map.

However, Wellemeyer's 2009 season was a disaster. Wellemeyer was much more hittable in 2009 and even though he only pitched 122 innings, he gave up nearly as many hits in 2009 as he did in 2008 when he thre 191 innings. His BB rate shot up, his K rate declined, and his WHIP skyrocketed to a destitute 1.77. By the end of the season, Wellemeyer had pitched himself out of the rotation and all the progress that he made in 2008 seemed to be lost.

So where does that leave Wellemeyer now? Well, he is just 31 years old, but aside from his 2008 season, Wellemeyer has never put together a consistently productive season. Nevertheless, I would anticipate that interest in Wellemeyer will heat up after the New Year and that there will be teams going after him hoping that he recaptures his 2008 magic on a low cost one year deal. A team like the Pirates, Mariners, Tigers, Nationals, and Padres all would seem to be logical fits. If Wellemeyer can put together another 2008esque season, then he will be in position to land a more lucrative contract next winter.

Revisiting the Castillo for Byrnes Hypothetical Trade

2009-12-28T10:00:00.000-05:00

A few weeks back, I profiled why a swap of Eric Byrnes for Luis Castillo would make sense for both the Diamondbacks and the Mets. The Mets would finally complete their never ending quest to get rid of Luis Castillo while the Diamondbacks would fill their need at second base, make their offense better, and save money in 2010. This deal would be a classic salary dump for both sides just like the Milton Bradley-Carlos Silva swap was for the Cubs and Mariners, just minus the crazy aspect.

As we sit here on December 28th, this deal still makes far too much sense from both perspectives not to happen.

As Nick Cafardo wrote in yesterday's Boston Globe:

6. Orlando Hudson, 2B, free agent - Seems he was the hot name for a long time, but that has quieted. The Mets remain the most interested, but until they are able to move Luis Castillo - a big if - the Mets may only be able to dream about a Jose Reyes-Hudson DP combo.

Seems like a fair enough point given how little interest the league has in Castillo. But it's clear that for whatever reason, the Mets' love for Orlando Hudson is still strong.

How can the Mets finally satisfy their urge for Orlando Hudson?

Answer: Trade Eric Brynes for Luis Castillo

I know taking on Byrnes' contract (or at least most of it) is not something the Mets should be fond of doing, but if they want to get rid of Luis Castillo that badly, then this is one of the only ways how they can do it. And sure, there is a chance that Byrnes can be a useful player on the Mets, but I don't think he has quite the upside that Castillo has at this stage in his career.

On the plus side, if/when the Mets go after Hudson, they would not have to give up a draft pick for his services and they might even be Hudson's only serious suitor at this point, which means his price is destined to come down.

******* *******

As for the Diamondbacks, the most interesting new development of their offseason is their interest in Jose Valverde, whose market has crashed around him despite his tremendous ability. As Nick Piecoro writes:

But that's not a given. The club had been monitoring closer Jose Valverde's availability, and though Howry's signing makes a Valverde reunion somewhat less likely, team sources say they will continue to track Valverde and theoretically could stretch their budget for him if the cost makes sense.

The Diamondbacks would have to give up a second-round draft pick to sign him, but the savings on signing the pick (about $750,000) could help off-set the cost of Valverde. The number of teams looking for closers and able to afford a big-ticket acquisition seems to be limited.

Bringing Valverde on board would give the Diamondbacks one of the best bullpens in the National League and could spring board them towards contention in 2010. If they have the chance to sign Valverde to a one year contract, that's a move they have to make because the deal offers them virtually no risk and greatly improves their team in 2009.

But given the Diamondbacks payroll restrictions, how can they safely fit Valverde in their budget?

Answer: Trade Eric Brynes for Luis Castillo

Byrnes is making $11 million in 2010, which is a enormous amount of money for a player who won't be starting and for a team that only has a $70-$80 million dollar payroll. By unloading Byrnes' salary (or even most of it), the Diamondbacks would be giving themselves more payroll flexibility for 2010, which should allow them to go after Jose Valverde.

At the same time, the Diamondbacks would be acquiring a potentially valuable asset, who would start at second base and offer a consistent presence in their lineup.

What's not to like?

Off Season Winner: Trevor Hoffman

2009-12-28T08:50:00.000-05:00

Shortly after the season ended, Trevor Hoffman and the Brewers came to terms on a one year/$8 million dollar contract that kept Hoffman in Milwaukee through 2010 and potentially even 2011 thanks to a mutual option. Hoffman, 41, put together a stellar season with the Brewers in 2009 by finishing with 37 saves and an incredible 1.83 ERA.

Given the year Hoffman had with the Brewers in 2009 and his name recognition, it's not hard to see why the Brewers decided to re-sign Hoffman. But what is up for debate is why the Brewers decided to commit 10% of their payroll (roughly $80 million) to a closer when there was such a glut of free agent closers on the market.

As it turns out, the market for closers has been horrible this winter. The top closers on the market are not coming close to making what they anticipated and not one closer has topped $7 million in salary in 2010. Additionally, the best closer on the free agent market, Jose Valverde, is still a free agent with minimal interest from teams around the league because no one wants to give him a multi year contract worth $8-$10 million annually.

So why is Hoffman a offseason winner? Because he did the smart thing by signing early before the market for closers could develop and in turn, getting more guaranteed money in 2010 than any other free agent closer to date. It's hard to say how much Hoffman would have made on the free agent market, but given how things played out this winter, it's hard to imagine that he could have done much better than he did.

How the Athletics Can Sign Adrian Beltre

2009-12-27T13:30:00.001-05:00

One of the most fascinating rumors to come to life over the past few weeks has been the Adrian Beltre to the A's rumor. The normally frugal Athletics are taking a "serious look" at signing Beltre, who at just 30 years old, is one of the best free agents left on the market and by far the best free agent third baseman. As Buster Olney writes:

They are taking a serious look at third baseman Adrian Beltre, who would fit the trend for the defensive-minded metrics crowd this winter: Seattle, Boston and, yes, the Athletics, who have already added Coco Crisp.

In theory, signing Beltre makes tons of sense for the Athletics. The A's need to find a power hitter in the middle of the lineup, who can drive in runs and they need to find a dependable third baseman in place of Eric Chavez, who can play top notch defense and solidify the A's as one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Beltre, who is only 30 years old, fits both of those needs.

But the problem for the Athletics lies in the cost. Even though Beltre had a down season in 2009 and missed plenty of time with injuries, he is thought to be seeking a multi year deal that exceeds $10 million annually. I seriously doubt that the A's would be willing to pay Beltre that much money let alone commit to him for so many seasons given his injury plagued 2010. The Athletics payroll will probably sit somewhere in the $60-$70 million dollar range, which makes it foolish to think that they would commit such a large portion of their payroll to one player.

Luckily for the A's, the market for Beltre has not really developed as he or agent Scott Boras would have hoped. Teams like the Giants, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Mariners have expressed interest in Beltre, but only in the right scenario and only if the price is right. None of those teams seem to have identified Beltre as a top target even though they have far more payroll flexibility than the A's to sign Beltre.

The best and most logical chance that the Athletics have at signing Beltre is by offering him an incentive laden one year contract with a mutual option for 2011. If the Athletics guarantee Beltre something like $6 million in 2010 and offer him another $4-$6 million in incentives, then Beltre could wind up making a substantial amount of money as a free agent next season as long as he stays healthy and productive. In addition, a mutual option of $12 million dollars or so would be sufficient because if Beltre becomes a fit in Oakland, then the A's can keep him as a replacement for Eric Chavez. More likely than not however, if Beltre has a stellar 2010 season, there's no way he would pick up this option.

In short, if Beltre really wants to maximize his earning potential, a one year contract is his best bet. There's no reason to think that if Beltre is healthy and productive in 2010 that he cannot land a lucrative multi year contract next winter given how weak the class of free agent third basemen is.

The Athletics would benefit from this deal because Beltre would be a substantial upgrade in the short term, while offering no long term commitment. For a small market club like the A's, this type of contract is the only one that really makes sense for them financially and gives them the opportunity to put an improved product on the field in 2010.

I know that Beltre specifically declined the Mariners arbitration offer a few weeks back because he was hoping to land a multi year contract. Well, Beltre still might be able to do that, but the years and dollars will be far less than what he expected. The only reason that Beltre should accept a multi year deal is if he thinks that contract is maximizing his earning potential as a healthy and productive player. Given the fact that Beltre is coming off an injury plagued season and is struggling to find teams willing to meet his price on the market, I think it's safe to say that he has virtually no chance to maximizing his earning potential with a multi year deal this winter.

If Beltre comes to this conclusion, then he will become more open to accepting a one year deal.

Risk/Reward of the Kelvin Escobar Signing

2009-12-27T11:00:00.000-05:00

Met fans have been clamoring for Omar Minaya to make a splash and sign a big name free agent. I'm not sure that this signing counts, but Kelvim Escobar is on his way to becoming a New York Met:

I can confirm other reports that the #Mets are on the brink of signing Kelvim Escobar to a one-year, major league contract

By giving Escobar a major league contract, the Mets are certainly adding a level of risk to the deal, but the bigger picture suggests that there is plenty of reward here for the Mets to justify this deal:

Risk:

Escobar has not pitched in nearly two seasons
Escobar has not been a full time relief pitcher since 2002-how good will he be?
Injury history
Major league contract guarantees him spot on the 40 man roster

Reward:

If he is healthy, Escobar has fantastic stuff
Potentially electric set up man
Minimal commitment in both years (1) and dollars
If Escobar is hurt in 2010, there are no future implications of this deal

Conclusion: Given how uneventful the Mets offseason has been so far, I think fans of the team will take any potentially beneficial signing at this point. Even though Escobar has made just one start in two years, if he's healthy, he will have lots of bring to the Mets. Not only will Escobar make their bullpen deeper, but he will give them yet another power arm in addition to Brian Stokes and Bobby Parnell. There is a lot of upside in this deal for the Mets given how much Escobar can bring to the table and how little the Mets are investing in this deal. With that said, the Mets still have plenty of work to do this offseason and hopefully the signings of Escobar and Igarashi, GM Omar Minaya will now shift away from the bullpen and address some of the team's other primary needs (i.e: starting pitching, power hitters, etc.)

As for Kelvim Escobar, the Mets will give him a great opportunity to get his career back on track in the bullpen. I'm sure one of the primary reasons that Escobar signed with the Mets is because they gave him a major league contract. While there were plenty of teams out there interested in Escobar, I'm not sure how many of them were willing to hand Escobar anything more than a minor league deal. Considering that he's only thrown 5 innings in the majors since 2007, the Mets' willingness to give him a major league deal demonstrates how strongly they wanted him and how much they believe in Escobar's stuff.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

2009-12-25T08:00:00.002-05:00

From Jorge Says No! to you and yours, Merry Christmas. No matter what you celebrate this time of year, enjoy yourself and most importantly, be safe.

Thanks once again for reading and being apart of the Jorge Says No! experience. There will be no more posts here for the rest of the day, but we will be back on the 27th for all of you who did not get the right presents or perhaps drank too much egg nog.

And by the way, only 100 days until opening day. We can all be thankful for that.

Risk/Reward of the Justin Duchscherer Signing

2009-12-24T17:35:00.000-05:00

And in a classic Billy Beane signing, it looks like the Athletics have found their ace:

As I reported in this morning's Chronicle, the A's were optimistic about re-signing Justin Duchscherer, and though the team might not announce the agreement until after Christmas, word from multiple sources is that a one-year deal is done pending a physical.

The base salary is $2 million, but Duchscherer could earn as much as $5.5 million with incentives, should he reach benchmarks of 30 starts and 200 innings.

Duchscherer's agent, Damon Lapa, said at the start of the free-agent period that the two-time All-Star was clear with teams that he wanted to be a starter, and considering the incentives package,it is safe to assume that the A's have agreed that that will be the right-hander's role. Duchscherer missed all of last season, first with an elbow problem and then during treatment for clinical depression.

That means, barring other moves, that Duchscherer is likely to be the team's No. 1 starter, as he had been projected to be last year, and he'll be followed by left-handers Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson and right-hander Travor Cahill. The fifth spot will be up for grabs between righty Vin Mazzaro and lefty Gio Gonzalez, with Josh Outman a possibility when he returns from elbow surgery after the All-Star break.

Even though Duchscherer missed all of the 2009 season with various injuries and depression, there is plenty of upside in this deal for the Athletics:

Risk:

Can he stay healthy?
Will Duchscherer throw more than 150 innings (which is a feat he has never accomplished before)

Reward:

Potential ace
Potential trade bait later in the season if he stays healthy
Veteran leadership
High upside
Dominant pitcher when healthy
Limited money ($2 million) and years (one) invested

Conclusion: There's a lot to like about this deal from the Athletics' perspective because Duchscherer is a guy that they are familiar with, has great stuff, will probably be their ace, and cost them very little. The Athletics lack the resources to go after the top free agent starting pitchers, but they must've been elated to sign Duchscherer to a contract with so little money guaranteed. From Duchscherer's perspective, this deal makes sense because it gives him the opportunity to start in a place that he's familiar with. If Duchscherer has a dynamite 2010 season, then there's no reason to think that he won't be able to land a lucrative contract next winter.

With that said, I don't think the Athletics are a playoff team even with Duchscherer on board, but this signing makes the Athletics' rotation deeper and more potent, should Duchscherer remain healthy.

Risk/Reward of the Fernando Rodney Signing

2009-12-24T16:50:00.000-05:00

The Angels made their second big free agent signing by coming to terms with Fernando Rodney on a two year/$11 million dollar contract:

Angels General Manager Tony Reagins did a little last-minute Christmas shopping today. And while he didn't get exactly what he wanted to put under the tree, he's pretty happy with what he did get -- hard-throwing reliever Fernando Rodney, who set a franchise record by converting 37 of 38 save opportunities for the Detroit Tigers last season.

Rodney, a 32-year-old free agent, agreed in principle to a two-year, $11-million contract to provide depth at the back of an already-deep bullpen that will return major league saves leader Brian Fuentes.

It wasn't, however, the perfect gift. That's because Rodney's 4.40 earned-run average last season was the highest among American League relievers with at least 20 saves. Plus, he is 4-17 with a 4.48 ERA over the past three seasons. And in 2007 and 2008, he missed 20 weeks with tendinitis in his pitching arm.

I am normally a huge fan of Angels GM Tony Reagins, but I'm not a fan of this deal at all. As I've outlined, there is far too much risk involved with this deal even though Rodney does bring some skills to the table.

Risk:

Two years for Fernando Rodney. Really?
Almost $6 million annually is a lot to pay for a set up man, let alone a mediocre one like Rodney
ERA has not been lower than 4 since 2006
Injury history
Career WHIP of 1.42
Lacks control (41 walks last season)
Sure Rodney has closing experience, but that doesn't mean he was a quality closer.

Reward:

Closing experience
Great arm
Gives the Angels another option to close should Fuentes struggle again
Can Fuentes and Rodney become a productive 1-2 punch late in games?

Conclusion: Given how much the Angels bullpen and Brian Fuentes struggled last season, it does not surprise me to see the Angels shore up their bullpen. However, is Rodney really the guy the Angels want? He's far from reliable, walks too many hitters, gives up too many hits, and has never been a dominant pitcher at any point during his seven year career. And in my opinion, giving Rodney two years was a foolish move because it increases the risk associated with this deal. Given how poorly the market for relief pitchers has panned out (besides Brandon Lyon) and how many relief options (Dotel, Gregg, Howry, Park, etc.) remain on the free agent market, there was no reason to commit so heavily to Rodney.

Jose Valverde to the Diamondbacks?

2009-12-24T11:00:00.001-05:00

We're all over the Jose Valverde situation today as Nick Piecoro adds in this note about the Diamondbacks and Valverde:

*Still curious to see what becomes of the situation with RHP Jose Valverde. The Diamondbacks remain interested in bringing him back -- at their price, of course. A scenario the Diamondbacks would consider: Offering him a one-year deal at a lower base salary than what he’s seeking -- say, $5 million -- along with a promise not to offer him arbitration after 2010. That way, he could have another go at the free-agent market next year, unencumbered by draft pick compensation. No idea if Valverde would go for that.

I honestly did not think that the Diamondbacks had the funds to seriously go after Valverde, but this situation actually makes a whole lot of sense. Sure the Diamondbacks already have Chad Qualls, but this move would make their bullpen significantly better. The Diamondbacks would not have to surrender their first round pick and Valverde would have the chance to put up big numbers in Arizona and become an attractive free agent on the market next winter. This scenario would be similar to what happened to Juan Cruz last winter, except that he signed with the Royals on a two year deal, not just one.

Seems like a win-win deal all around to me, that is of course, if the Diamondbacks can afford to sign him.

Jose Valverde to the Tigers?

2009-12-24T10:00:00.001-05:00

On Monday, I pondered if Jose Valverde was going to be this year's Orlando Hudson. Just three days later, the number of teams, who could potentially be interested in Valverde continues to wane: Two teams that I thought could have interest in Valverde seem to have moved in different directions:

At this stage in the game, there does not seem to be a team out there willing to give him the contract he wants, let alone give up a first round pick for his services.

One of the only teams left with a realistic chance to go after Valverde is the Tigers, who have now lost both Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon. But given the Tigers financial state, does anyone actually think they would pay Valverde more than $5-$6 million dollars in 2010? And would they be willing to surrender their first round pick?

At some point though, I think Valverde's price will fall into the range where the Tigers have to make a play for him, despite his type A status (a la Orlando Hudson last season). This process will take time for Valverde, but if the Tigers actually have money to spend, then they should be the team that Valverde should look to sign with (albeit for a cheap price).

Risk/Reward of the Troy Glaus Signing

2009-12-24T09:00:00.000-05:00

It looks like the Braves have found their right handed power hitter. Despite playing only six games in his career at first base, the Braves signed Troy Glaus to a one year/$2 million dollar contract yesterday:

Free agent corner infielder Troy Glaus and the Atlanta Braves have reached a tentative agreement on a contract, a baseball source told ESPN.com on Wednesday.
Glaus must undergo a physical exam before the deal can be completed. The physical is more than a formality because of his injury history, and is not expected to take place until after Christmas and possibly New Year's, so no announcement is imminent.

Glaus, 33, is a four-time All-Star with 304 home runs and a .497 career slugging percentage. He is expected to play first base in Atlanta and give the Braves some middle-of-the-order power to complement Chipper Jones and Brian McCann.
FoxSports.com, which was first to report the pending deal, said Glaus will receive a one-year contract with incentives.

As I noted a week ago, Glaus made a lot of sense for the Braves as a low cost/high reward option to play first base. The Braves were in dire need of a right handed power hitter even after trading Javier Vazquez and Glaus stood out because of the low level commitment that the Braves have to make (one year) and the limited dollars that the Braves had to throw his way. By signing Glaus, the Braves still have some financial flexibility left over to make a run at other free agents and make their team deeper.

If Glaus is healthy, then it's not out of the question to put him down for 25-35 home runs. From 2005-2008, Glaus never hit less than 20 home runs in any season and he has hit more than 35 home runs four times in his career.

However, there are a number of risks involved with signing Glaus. The first and most prominent concern has to be his health. Glaus missed nearly all of the 2009 season and one has to wonder how Glaus will bounce back in 2010 and how he will hold up over a full season. Also, Glaus has such limited experience playing first base that it remains to be seen if he will become a defensive liability for the Braves.

There's a reason why it cost so little for the Braves to sign Glaus (health, position, defense), but the potential upside of this deal is tremendous and could make the Braves a legitimate contender in the National League in 2010.

Sign With the Nationals, Matt Capps

2009-12-23T12:00:00.000-05:00

After sorting through a litany of teams that were interested in his services, Matt Capps has narrowed his choices down to two teams: the Nationals and the Cubs.

Ten days after reliever Matt Capps landed on the free-agent market, he's down to deciding whether he wants to be a closer for the Washington Nationals or a setup man and fallback closer candidate for the Cubs.

Agent Paul Kinzer said Tuesday that Capps plans to confer with his family and decide between competing offers from the Cubs and Nationals by Wednesday night.
"Matt is really comfortable with those two [teams] at this point,'' Kinzer said. "When it comes right down to it, he has to decide whether he's going to a place where he's definitely going to be the closer, or he's a setup man with a chance to maybe close.''
Capps, 26, amassed 66 saves from 2007 through 2009 in Pittsburgh.

Now, even though Capps has a much better chance to win with the Cubs in 2010 (and perhaps 2011), there is no doubt in my mind that he should sign with the Nationals. Here's why: if Capps wants to maximize his earning potential, then he needs to be a closer. Sure right now the market for closers is pretty weak, but historically, closers have made far more money than relief pitchers, no matter how good they are. If Capps can be an effective closer for the Nationals for a year or two, he will be putting himself in a great position to earn big bucks down the road at 27 or 28.

In addition, there are so few closing jobs available this offseason that it would be foolish not to take it when its offered. Right now, there are only a handful of teams other than the Nationals that need a closer, but the market is over saturated with experienced closers. Bottom line: there will be pitchers, who expected to close in 2010, who will not have that opportunity. Capps is one of the lucky ones, who can choose his own fate.

In short, despite the Nationals' past/future struggles, this is a opportunity that Capps needs to jump at because it's what's best for his career and his future earning potential.

Phillies Bullpen Options

2009-12-23T11:00:00.002-05:00

Now that the Phillies have added Roy Halladay, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has turned his attention to shoring up their shaky bullpen. With Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre set to leave Philadelphia, Amaro has identified his two main targets: Fernando Rodney and Mike MacDougal. Both guys have experience closing, which is vital for the Phillies given how bad Brad Lidge performed last season.

The going rate for Rodney at this point seems to be somewhere in the 2 years/$12 million dollar range, which seems rather excessive when you consider that Mike Gonzalez, who is a superior pitcher, landed the exact same deal. And even though Rodney has great stuff and was a decent closer for the Phillies this season, is he a guy that the Phillies should feel confident calling on in a big spot? Lemme put it to you this way, between Rodney and Brad Lidge, it could be a roller coaster season for the Phillies.

As for MacDougal, he had a nice couple months with the Nationals last season, but when it comes down to it, MacDougal is just a guy with great stuff and very poor control. There's a reason why the Nationals non-tendered him: even though MacDougal put together a nice season as the Nationals' closer, his control makes him too much of a risk for the Nationals to pay him $3 million or so that he would have earned via arbitration. MacDougal should be a cheap option on the free agent market, but that doesn't necessarily make him a good option for the Phillies given his control issues.

Before the Phillies make a final choice on MacDougal or Rodney, I'd suggest that they take a look into Jose Valverde. As I wrote a few days back, the market for Valverde stinks and it's highly doubtful that he will come close to the 3 year/$30 million dollar contract he wanted this winter. Valverde is the best closer on the market, but because of his type A status, teams a shying away from offering him a contract.

That's where the Phillis come in. With $118 million in payroll commitments already for 2010, the Phillies have roughly $22 million left to spend ($140 million dollar payroll), but a majority of that will be spent on arbitration raises. If I'm Ruben Amaro, I would offer Valverde something like a one year deal worth $7.5 million dollars and a decent level of incentives. Because the Phillies would have to surrender their first round pick to sign Valverde, I doubt they would be willing to pay more than that for a relief pitcher, no matter how good he may be. Valverde would give the Phillies a potentially dominant closer should Brad Lidge fail to return to his 2008 form and has far more upside than either Rodney or MacDougal.

If Valverde declines the offer, which I would expect, then Amaro can move on to options B and C. But there are plenty of reasons for Valverde to accept the deal. He would be placed in a great situation to play on a winning team where he might be able to close on a regular basis. And let's face it, teams aren't exactly clamoring to sign him, no matter how good of a closer he may be.

And the Phillies would be significantly upgrading their bullpen for 2010, which in my opinion is worth their first round pick given how minimal the commitment would be to Valverde. If Valverde joins the Phillies, then they would have to be the favorites in the National League.

Will the Yankees Go After Aroldis Chapman?

2009-12-23T10:00:00.000-05:00

Lost in the shuffle of the Yankees tremendous offseason has been their relative inactivity on the Aroldis Chapman front. At the beginning of the offseason, the Yankees were heavily linked to the Cuban left hander because of their vast financial resources and experience signing international prospects. But now that the Yankees have acquired Curtis Granderson, Javier Vazquez, and Nick Johnson already (and pushed their 2010 payroll to $204 million in the process!), do they have enough resources remaining to make a push for Chapman? Maybe not, if you believe Yankees GM Brian Cashman:

“I will continue to look at any remaining piece,” Cashman said during today’s conference call. “But it won’t be a big piece. Any speculation about some high-end player who has big ability and dollars attached on a large scale would be inappropriate.”

Now whether or not Chapman would be considered a "big piece" by Yankees brass is certainly up for debate, but that doesn't sound like a guy, who is too willing to commit $20-$30 million over five seasons to a relative unknown.

Then again, if the Yankees truly believe that Chapman has the makings of an ace in the majors, then I'm sure they could find room in their budget to sign him. Paying Chapman $5-$6 million dollars annually might be a lot for most teams, but for the Yankees, that's chump change as long as there is tremendous upside in the deal and the pitcher's name is not Kei Igawa. Remember that the Yankees view Chapman as a piece in 2011 at the earliest, so if they do sign him, the implications of the contract would primarily be in the long term.

And finally, remember that the Yankees could jump right into the Chapman sweepstakes if they see the Red Sox make a strong push. Baseball's cold war knows no financial limits and if the Yankees can do anything to improve their club in the future while damaging the Red Sox in the process, then I'm sure that's a move Cashman would be eager to make.

Are the Mets and Joel Pineiro a Match?

2009-12-23T09:00:00.000-05:00

The Mets badly need a starting pitcher. Joel Pineiro is the best starter left on the free agent market. So shouldn't Pineiro to the Mets be a logical fit? Maybe not:

With Marquis, John Lackey and Randy Wolf now unavailable, the Mets could be down to the last of the preferred free-agent starting pitchers -- Joel Pineiro. But there has been no indication that they have any great interest in him. The $29.75 million contract Wolf signed with the Brewers appeared to spook the Mets. They hadn't expected Wolf to command such a figure and were prompted to look past the other starters they considered mid-range and less accomplished than Lackey. They did develop a belated interest in Lackey based in part of Wolf's deal, though not one comparable to the Red Sox's interest -- $85 million.

Like so many free agents this winter, what Pineiro expected to receive on the market likely will not come close to the deal he actually signs. Why? Because there are so few teams out there looking to spend big money on a starting pitcher and there are even fewer teams out there with money to spend. The Mets are one of the few teams on the market left that have a definite need for a starting pitcher and have money to spend as well.

If Pineiro is going to come close to Randy Wolf money, then he's going to need to have a number of teams interested in his services. But right now, the market for Pineiro simply is not there. Outside of the Mets, what other teams would have interest in Pineiro at $7-$10 million annually?

Yankees: Nope. Not after the Vazquez trade
Red Sox: Nope. Not after the Lackey signing
Cubs: Doubtful. Do they have the money to spend?
Dodgers: Doubtful. Do they have the money to spend?
Nationals: Doubtful, especially after committing $15 million to Jason Marquis
Orioles: Doubtful given their payroll and recent acquisition of Kevin Millwood
Mariners: Probably not given their recent acquisition of Cliff Lee
Cardinals: Unlikely at this point because they signed Brad Penny

Besides the Mets, the only other team that sticks out in my mind is the Angels. After losing John Lackey, the Angels need a front line starting pitcher and if they cannot acquire one on the trade market, then they might look to Pineiro to fill the void.

The best case scenario for Pineiro and his agent is if the Mets and Angels both become desperate for a front line starting pitcher and decide to go hard after Pineiro.

But is that scenario likely? I doubt it. Even though there is tremendous pressure on the Mets to get a deal done with any top free agent, their lack of interest in Pineiro so far suggests that while they need a starting pitcher, maybe Pineiro is not the guy they want to go after strongly. As for the Angels, they have less money to spend than the Mets do and they are making a strong run at Fernando Rodney. In addition, the Angels have a very good fallback option should Pineiro sign elsewhere-Matt Palmer. Under no circumstances should the Angels panic after Lackey's loss given their wealth of resources, prospects, and options.

If both the Mets and Angels remain patient and refuse to panic, than the price tag for Pineiro will inevitably drop. I doubt he'll achieve the salary of Randy Wolf, but he should earn more than Jason Marquis. Given how the market has played out, Pineiro at 3 years/$24 million seems about right.

At that price, I would expect the Mets to be very much interested in Pineiro.