Great Moment in Gloating

Ladies and Gentleman, I was damned close.

Only $4 million dollars off! (Should I be proud of this....?)

Ryan Dempster Contract (Jorge Says No! Projection)

Actual Ryan Dempster Contract (According to ESPN.com)

(Pats self on the back...)

Overall, I like this move for both parties. If Dempster continues to pitch like he did in 2008, then the Cubs will be very happy with this deal. If he regresses, then it's only a three year commitment because the fourth year is an option.

And how many people before the 2008 season would have guessed that Ryan Dempster would command a $52 million dollar contract on the open market? This marks an incredible turnaround for Dempster, who only a season ago was the Cubs struggling closer.

This contract confirms what all of us already know: starting pitching is going to be mighty expensive this offseason. It's a good time to be CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Oliver Perez, and Derek Lowe. Ch-Ching.
(Photo: LA Times)

If the Mets re-sign Pedro Martinez...

Then I will officially declare Omar Minaya insane. I'm sure some Met fans will clamor for GM Omar Minaya to bring back Pedro. Because Pedro, even in his diminished state, is still Pedro. Fans still love Pedro for his history and charisma while holding onto this fantastic dream that Pedro may one day return to the Pedro of old.

I know this dream folks because I have lived it. But the old Pedro is longggggg gone.

I'm sure the critic say something along the lines of, "even if Pedro is well past his prime, he can still give you six or seven good innings because of his guts and guile." And part of that statement is true. Pedro is a good enough pitcher to sometimes go out there and perform well because he can still locate and is one smart guy. But those "sometimes" are few and far between. According to baseballreference.com, in 20 starts for the Mets, Pedro only threw six quality starts. So basically, Pedro pitched "well" roughly 1/3 of the time that he started.

And for all of you who are interested, Pedro Martinez had the exact same quality start percentage as Darrell Rasner. Yes, the same guy who the Yankees sold to Japan last week because his performance was so terrible. Yikes.

And honestly, if I'm going to throw a guy out there every fifth who only has a 30% chance of giving me a quality start, it's going to be a young guy. Not an aging 38 year old who is two years removed from major shoulder surgery. So forget the name recognition and focus on the performance. While I love Pedro's energy and charisma (and hair), he is washed up and should not be brought back under any circumstances.

Setting the Market

In case you missed it, the Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt to a 2 year/$8 million dollar contract today in an attempt to shore up their horrific middle relief. Affeldt is the first domino to fall this offseason, and this contract will ultimately set the bar for the other free agent middle relievers on the market.

My initial reaction is that this a fair deal for both sides involved. It is tough to project consistency amongst middle relievers and Affleldt is a perfect example how quickly middle relievers can fluctuate. Before 2007, Affleldt was a struggling spot starter/middle reliever who walked far too many hitters while striking out way too few. Before 2007, Affeldt only had one good season and seemed to be at a crossroads with his career.

But luckily for Affeldt, he is a lefty. Left handed pitchers, especially those who throw hard, will always find opportunities. That's just the way it is and the way it will be. Affeldt took advantage of his opportunities by pitching well for the Rockies in 2007 and pitching even better for the Reds in 2008. All of a sudden, Affleldt's control dramatically improved as his strikeout rate improved.

This contract works because the Giants are only committing 2 years and a small amount of money to a guy who really could stabilize the back end of their bullpen. Good to see that Brian Sabean has learned from the horrific 3 year deals given out to Rich Aurilia and Dave Roberts. For Affeldt, $4 mil per year is a good get as is the two years because hey, if he has two good seasons with Giants, he will be in line for an even bigger pay day. And who knows, Affeldt might even close a few times for the Giants...

For my money, I would have rather signed Affeldt instead of Damaso Marte. Younger, less money, fewer years. How will this deal effect Will Ohman and Joe Beimel? The $4 mil is a good starting point for each of their agents, but look for each to try for a contract longer than two years. It's a good time to be a competent left handed middle reliever.

Buy, Buy, Buy!

There is no doubt in my mind that the 2008 offseason will be defined by what the Yankees do. After making the playoffs for the last 13 seasons, the Yankees finally missed the playoffs this season and seem poised to make some big changes. The Yankees have roughly $80 million dollars coming off the books thanks to the expiring contracts of Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, Carl Pavano, and Ivan Rodriguez. So it should come as no surprise that the Yankees have been linked to just about every major free agent (Sabathia, Teixeira, Burnett, Lowe, etc.) and they should be able to flex their financial muscle to acquire at least two of the biggest free agents.

Signing the big names will no doubt increase the buzz at the new Yankee Stadium. The talent that potentially could be on the field for opening day 2009 is scary. GM Brian Cashman has no restraints this offseason...how many other GMs can say that? None. Life is good when you have deep pockets. Or at least it should be.

But I question whether the Yankees will actually be able to win simply by buying the best players on the market. The best teams have been built through the farm system and trades, using free agency as a complimentary piece to the Championship puzzle. Just look at the 2008 Phillies and the 2008 Rays. Each team built the foundation through the farm system while using free agency to selectively upgrade certain weaknesses. While the Yankees have a great farm system, I wonder how any of these guys will actually get playing time because the Yankees have (and will have) so many long term contracts.

In contrast, let’s look at the post 2000 Yankees. Sure they have had Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera; but the post dynasty Yankees are defined by big names and splashy free agent signings. While the Yankees made the playoffs for every season prior to 2008, they never won any championships despite Steinbrenner’s best efforts at giving the Yankees the best players and whatever resources they need. There is no doubt that the Yankees had tons of talent, but I think every Yankee fan can agree with me when I say that something was missing from these Yankees. Maybe it’s that most of their players are aging veterans, who not what they used to be, even if they are very good. Or maybe it’s the pressure of the Steinbrenner Doctrine, which declares that anything short of a World Championship is a failure. How could any team perform well with such unrealistic expectations? Or maybe the Yankees lack a certain cohesiveness that binds together players who have a collective chip on their shoulder and the personal goal of a lucrative contract.

The Yankees will undoubtedly be a hot pick to win the World Series in 2009. They will have stars at every position, each serving as a brand name for the powerful Yankee Corporation. I for one will not be picking the Yankees to win it all in 2009 if they spend absurd amounts of money on multiple players. They can solve every weakness on their team by outspending everyone else, but there is no doubt in my mind that something will still be missing. Baseball is about TEAM and I don't think the Yankees will win until they move away from the mindset that they need to build through signing the most expensive free agents.

Silent Giant

Its become expected that the Yankees and the Red Sox will compete for talent in every offseason. The trend has been continuous and for the most part, the Yankees have come out on top.

2002: Jose Contreras (Yankees)
2003: Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
2004: Carl Pavano (Yankees)
2006 Daisuke Matsuzaka (Red Sox)
2007: Johan Santana (Mets)
(Note: I had to throw Santana in here because without the Yankees and Red Sox backing away from Johan, the Mets never would have signed him. I still have no idea how Omar Minaya pulled that trade off.)

These two franchises were like the USSR and US throughout the Cold War, the baseball world seems to revolve around the Yankees and Red Sox at all times, especially the offseason. Who needs Reagan and Gorbachev when you got George Steinbrenner and Larry Lucchino?

However, this offseason is a different story. The Yankees are in their typical buy mode because of new found financial flexibility from expiring contracts and the new Yankee Stadium. In all likelihood, the Yankees will go after most of the big name free agents to compete at the top of the AL East with the Sox and Rays. At this point, the Yankees are an after thought to both of those teams, who are vastly superior to the Yankees. However, alot can change during the winter.

On the other hand, the Red Sox probably won't be major players on the free agent market because they do not have any glaring holes on their roster. If anything, the Red Sox will focus on signing Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, and Dustin Pedroia to extensions while trading whatever is left of Julio Lugo. Even when the Yankees make their big moves, the Red Sox have such a good roster and farm system in place that they will not have to make a big move to match the Yankees.

So this offseason should shape up differently. With the Red Sox out of the picture, the Yankees could wind up bidding against themselves for free agents because no other team is likely to spend in their stratosphere. It should be interesting to see if the Red Sox get involved in certain free agents solely with the intention of raising the price/years. Then again, I don't think it would matter to the Yankees if they paid an extra $10 mil as long as they sign the guy they want.

So we probably won't see any crazy Yankee/Red Sox bidding wars this offseason, but hey, that doesn't mean this won't be interesting. This is still the Yankees and Red Sox. And these two clubs still hate each other.

Sad Day for the AL....

This actually happened yesterday, but Darrell Rasner and his 5.40 ERA have been sold to Japan.

Shucks!

Rasner is a classic AAAA player, who stunk up the joint during his brief tenure with the Yankees. With that said, Rasner absolutely killed the Yankees this season and as a Met fan, it was a joy to watch him pitch. Rasner could not strike anyone out and gave up way too many longballs. Just not a good pitcher. I'm sure Yankee fans are jumping for joy at this move because nothing kills a winning streak like a Darrell Rasner start. I'm sure Rasner will have much more success facing George Arias and Alex Cabrera instead of David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero.

Sayonara Darrell!

Worth a Shot: Victor Diaz

Way back in 2005, the Mets thought they had the second coming of Manny Ramirez on their hands. His name was Victor Diaz and he possessed light tower power that left Mets fans salivating. Diaz was built like Ramirez, seemed to hit like Ramirez, but unfortunately, Diaz also fielded like Manny Ramirez. The Mets grew frustrated with Diaz's inability to play defense and his free swinging approach at the plate. By 2006, the Mets had traded Diaz to the Rangers and before I knew it, our Manny Ramirez was gone. Yet another flame out.

With that said, I still think that Diaz is worth a shot for an AL team. Diaz is only 27 years old and showed some improvements this season in AAA. In only 107 games for the Tacoma Rainiers this season, Diaz hit 24 homers with a .280 batting average. Perhaps most importantly, Diaz posted a .362 OBP, which should be good enough for Diaz to garner some attention from big league teams. This was by far Diaz's best season in the minors in terms of putting it all together: power, batting average, and OBP.

Diaz will always be a flawed player and is VERY far from "the next Manny Ramirez", but the reward is potentially very high with Diaz. At worst, Diaz is a right handed pinch hitter off the bench, who can tie up a game with one swing of the bat. Power hitters like Diaz are hard to find and as we saw with Nelson Cruz this season, for some guys, it takes time. Just keep preaching OBP, OBP, OBP! Hopefully, a team will reap the rewards with Victor Diaz.

And They're Off!

As the clock strikes 12, you know what that means.....

FREE AGENCY HAS BEGUN!!!!!

The exclusive negotiating period is now over and teams are able to talk with whatever free agent they want. Let the fun begin.

Here are my free agent picks so far...I have linked them all. Please take a look and enjoy!

-Mark Teixeira
-CC Sabathia
-Manny Ramirez
-Ben Sheets (keep in mind, I did this before he got hurt)
-Adam Dunn (Note: I'm now thinking Dunn will wind up with something like a 1 year/$14 mil or a 2 year/$26 mil type of deal)
-Francisco Rodriguez
-Pat Burrell
-Oliver Perez
-Ryan Dempster
-Derek Lowe
-Orlando Hudson
-Raul Ibanez

RIP: Nick Swisher's Facial Hair

On paper, the Yankees trade for Nick Swisher looks fantastic. Not only can Swisher get on base, switch hit, and hit for power, but he is only 28 years old, entering the prime of his career. Swisher will either be the replacement at first base for Jason Giambi or the new starting center fielder for the Yankees. He offers the Yankees lots of flexibility, at a great price. Swisher signed a team friendly extensions with the Athletics in 2007 and luckily for the Yankees, Swisher is signed until 2011 for a total of only $21 million bucks. Swisher's contract is much better than anything the Yankees would have been able to find on the free agent market and will undoubtedly allow the Yankees to devote even more time and resources to CC Sabathia.

Sure Swisher is coming off a terrible season in which he only hit .219, but this guy has way too much talent and way too good of a contract to be dealt away this quickly. For God's sake, the Yankees only gave up Wilson Betemit and two minor leaguers This was a classic buy low trade by Brian Cashman and I would not be surprised if Swisher comes through big for the Yankees in 2009.

The Yankees have to be concerned about Swisher's horrific 2008 campaign, but as a fan, I am concerned that Swisher will no longer be able to sport his trademark beard/sideburns. As we all know, the Yankees require that their players maintain a clean-cut, trim look; so all the beard enthusiasts like myself have to be disappointed. We'll see how fun loving and charismatic Swisher will adapt to the strict and rigid rules of the Yankee clubhouse. We'll see if he is able to establish himself as a leader for the younger Yanks or if his enthusiasm and energy will be silenced the Yankee brand.

For right now, this trade brings the Yankees everything they are looking for: a young, energetic player who is in the prime of his career. We'll see if Swisher is able to produce in pinstripes, but you have to give credit to Cashman for pulling the trigger on this one.

This is NOT Rebuilding

The Marlins continued to "remodel" their team today by trading arbitration eligible RP Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for relief prospect Jose Ceda. The move will save the Marlins about $4 million bucks next season to go along with the roughly $10 million bucks the Marlins have saved already by trading away Josh Willingham, Scott Olson, and Mike Jacobs. As I have said before, I understand why fans would be upset that the Marlins are trading away guys only because of payroll concerns, but again, they are NOT rebuilding. And this trade further expresses why.

Kevin Gregg is a good player. He was a very productive closer for the Marlins in both 2007 and 2008 and probably saved his career in the process. With that said, Gregg is far from dominant and was injured and ineffective for most of the second half of the season. In the process, the Marlins watched other guys step up like Matt Lindstrom, Joe Nelson, and Logan Kensing. In addition, the Marlins recently acquired RP Leo Nunez, who had a 2.98 ERA last season for the Royals. There are multiple guys who can fill Gregg's role, which made him very expendable.

So in conclusion, it would be foolish for the Marlins, who will probably have only a $30 million dollar payroll next season, to spend $4 million of it on a mediocre relief pitcher. the Marlins are not having a fire sale because while each of their trades so far has been payroll based, each one of the trades can actually make the Marlins better next season: faster, younger, quicker, and more athletic. The Marlins are NOT starting from scratch; in contrast, I think that Marlins are merely building a group of cheap, quality, young players around a solid core group of guys (Hanley Ramirez, Chris Volstad, Jorge Cantu, Cameron Maybin, Josh Johnson, and Andrew Miller). I fully expect the Marlins to shock the baseball world next season by competing for the NL East crown. As a Met fan, these guys scare the daylights out of me.

Mets=Joan Rivers

So yeah, my New York Mets have collapsed in each of the last two seasons. Each time, we lost out on a playoff birth on the last day of the season. The acquisition of Johan Santana could not stop it. The firing of Willie Randolph could not stop it. And even the gangsta-ness of Jerry Manuel could not stop it. As a fan, this has been torture to watch. For the players, the pain has to be excruciating.

So how can the Mets ensure that the collapses of the last two seasons are a thing of the past? With a facelift of course! Or at least that's what David Wright thinks (ESPN.com):

"You go through two seasons that we've been through the last couple years and you're going to need a little bit of a facelift," Wright said Wednesday. "There's 30 teams out there that can use pitching, and obviously we're one of them."

Hmmm...a face lift you say? Not a bad idea, David. I loved the acquisition of Johan Santana last off season, but I think that move was more botox than facelift. Yeah sure Santana is phenomenal and an absolute ace, but he did not solve the fundamental issue with this ball club: the supporting cast, who dramatically failed the Mets in 2008. It can't be that hard to build a team around David Wright, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran right?

Wrong. Over the past two seasons, Omar Minaya has littered the Mets with a combination of under performing players, injured players, and players who simply are not that good. Take a look:

-The entire bullpen failed to step up this season after Billy Wagner went down. (This means you: Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, Duaner Sanchez, Joe Smith, and Pedro Feliciano)
-Ryan Church, John Maine, Ramon Castro, and Pedro Martinez all missed significant amounts of playing time
-Too many meaningful at bats to Endy Chavez, Luis Castillo, Argenis Reyes, Nick Evans, Trot Nixon, Marlon Anderson, and Brian Schnieder
-And by the end of the season, our closer was Luis Ayala and our starting second baseman was Ramon Martinez.

So yeah, I think David hit it head on here. Change is needed for the Mets to succeed. And it's not just adding one big player (i.e K-Rod) either. Omar Minaya needs to go out and surround the core of this team with consistent and productive players who will not make me have an ulcer by August. That's the real face lift that this team needs...because in the end it's about 25 guys, not 5 guys, who get the job done and win ballgames. You cannot win when half of you team is terrible and hurt...it's a fact.

So go ahead, shake up the Mets Omar, but do not touch the core. In the end, no Met fan is going to care if we look like Joan Rivers from all the stress...all we want is a title!

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Raul Ibanez

In a season of many negatives for the Mariners in 2008, Ibanez was one of the lone bright spots. Hitting in the middle of a terrible lineup, Ibanez still managed to hit 23 homers with 110 RBI while hitting .293. If it wasn't for Ibanez, who knows how bad the Mariners season would have been. Luckily for Ibanez, he gets to escape the hell hole of the Mariners (and especially Seattle sports) thanks to free agency.

The Case for Ibanez
-Mr. Consistency
In each of the past seven seasons, Ibanez has hit over 15 homers while continually producing an OBP around .345-.360 and a batting average near .290. Those numbers might seem unspectacular, but with Ibanez, you know the kind of production you are going to get. And in this day in age, teams will pay big money for consistent production (see: Derek Lowe).

-Jaime Moyer Syndrome
It's common knowledge in baseball that as guys get older, their play is supposed to decline. for most guys, this is true. However, every once in a while, a guy like Jaime Moyer comes along, and produces much better as he ages than he ever did as a young guy. For hitter, I think that Raul Ibanez is that kind of guy. Over the past three seasons, when Ibanez was supposed to be past his prime, his numbers have dramatically improved. Ibanez has shown no signs of slowing down, which is very encouraging for any team who wants to sign the 36 year old Ibanez.

-His age.
Yes, you read it right. The fact that Ibanez is 36 could actually help him on the free agent market. Here's why: there is no chance that Ibanez will get a five or six year deal from a club. He knows that, which means that he won't try for it. On the other hand, we have OF Adam Dunn, who is younger, left handed, and presumably, more expensive. So as teams shy away from Dunn's price tag and excessive demands, GMs will have no choice but to take a serious look at signing Raul Ibanez. His demand for a shorter contract really should help him.

-He actually hits lefties
It's refreshing to see a power hitting lefty hitter who can actually hit left handed pitching well. h wait, Ibanez hit left handed pitching better than he hit right handed pitching in 2008 (.305 v. .288). How impressive is that? Any team who signs Ibanez will have confidence knowing that this guy can hit against anyone.

The Case Against Ibanez
-His age
Yes, you read it right. Ibanez is still 36 years old and still could decline like so many 36 year olds before him have. Teams still need to be aware of his age and I'm sure for some clubs this will be a factor.

-Fielding
This should be an especially important point for any NL teams that are interested in Ibanez (cough...Mets). Ibanez is not a great outfielder and has very limited range. He would be an ideal DH, but a team could be okay with Ibanez in the outfield as long as you have a great center fielder (cough...Carlos Beltran). Ibanez will never be confused with Endy Chavez and I'm sure that every team that looks into Ibanez wants his bat, not his glove.

Competition
Unfortunately for Ibanez, the free agent OF class is very top heavy this season. Between Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and perhaps Bobby Abreu, teams will have a pretty good variety of quality outfielders. Ibanez's agent cannot argue that Ibanez is the best free agent OF in this class, but he can argue that Ibanez will deliver the same production as any of these guys.

And despite the amount of quality outfielders, there is no doubt that there will be many teams looking to sign Ibanez. I look for the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Nationals, Dodgers, and Cubs all could have interest depending how the off season plays out. Ibanez wants to play for a contender and it seems as though the Mariners are a few years away, which would take them out of contention.

Prediction
(3 years/$33 million)
There is no doubt in my mind that Ibanez is going to get paid. Unfortunately for him, he may lose a few million bucks because of the economy, but I think $11 mil is about right for him anyway. Ibanez is a consistent force who will provide power and stability to the middle of any lineup. Teams will pay top dollar for that, which is why it is a good time to be Raul Ibanez right now. If any team gives Ibanez more than three years, then they are crazy. Three years for a 36 year old might be tough to swallow, but this contract will not hamstring the franchise for years to come.

Ibanez offers far more to teams than any of these guys:

-Gary Matthews Jr (5 years/$50 mil)
-Juan Pierre (5 years/$45 mil)
-Kosuke Fukudome (4 years/$48 mil)

Ibanez's agent has to point out these contracts when talking contracts with teams. Can any GM really say that Juan Pierre offers more to a team than Raul Ibanez? No GM could back up that statement. I think that's where the market will set for Ibanez, and if so, that'd be a great contract for a great guy.

Rebuilding?

In the past ten days, the Marlins have traded away their starting first baseman, left fielder, and best left handed pitcher all because of money. Each guy was eligible for salary arbitration, which will give each guy a substantial increase in 2009. The decision to trade these three guys should not be a surprise given the Marlins history (1998 fire sale!) and payroll constraints ($21 million dollar payroll in 2008). I can understand why fans would be discouraged after watching the Marlins trade away three of their best players, but by no means does this mean that the Marlins are rebuilding.

Instead, the Fish are merely deciding which guys are expendable based on depth, potential, and salary. Think about it. The Marlins can replace OF Josh Willingham with OF Cameron Maybin, who is one of the best prospects in baseball and looks like a dynamic player. They can replace 1b Mike Jacobs with minor league 1b Gaby Sanchez, who was the MVP of the Southern League (AA) or with Dallas McPherson, who hit 42 homers in AAA this season. And finally, the Marlins can replace Scott Olsen with stud RHP Chris Volstad, who looked phenomenal down the stretch for the Marlins.

The three guys the Marlins gave up are flawed players. Jacobs cannot get on base or play defense, Willingham was hurt and can't play defense, and Olsen is no better than a third starter and a potential headcase. Good players? Yes, but irreplaceable? No. Each one of those guys has a capable replacement, who can probably offer the same production (or better?) at half the cost. That's why I commend the Marlins for the two trades they have made so far.

I look for 2b Dan Uggla to be the next one to go. The fact that the Marlins acquired 2b Emiliano Bonifacio from the Nationals yesterday is not a good sign for Uggla's Ugglies. Think about it this way: Uggla is a good player...a great power hitting second baseman, but simply put, he cannot play defense. Like the Willingham, Jacobs, and Olsen before him; Uggla is a very flawed player, who is eligible for arbitration and is due for a raise. Those factors should lead to Uggla's exit. I would love to see the Giants or Dodgers make a run at Uggla...he'd be a good fit there.

As a Met fan I am very scared of the Marlins in 2009. They still have a ton of talent and I really believe as long as they stay healthy and pitch well, they will compete for the division crown. As a baseball fan, I envy GM Larry Beinfest for continually working within his budget constraints to put a quality product on the field. These trades are not a part of some major rebuilding effort. Instead, the Marlins are building for something bigger and better than they achieved in 2008: a division title.

Give Jim Bowden a Pat on the Back

It's been awhile since I said anything nice about Jim Bowden. I hated the Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard extensions. I was not a fan of the Lastings Milledge trade. I absolutely hated the Jon Rauch trade. And did anyone mention the Aaron Crow debacle? Doesn't look too good for Bowden.

But I think he did good today. If you haven't heard, the Nationals acquired SP Scott Olsen and OF Josh Willingham for 2b Emiliano Bonfacio, OF Jake Smolinski, and PJ Dean. On talent alone, the Nationals scored a big victory here. Olsen and Willingham add some much needed talent to the floundering Nationals, who have a noticeable absence of impact players. But Olsen and Willingham are impact players. Olsen, 24, is a potential stud lefty, who is coming off the best season of his career in 2008. Olsen delivered a 4.20 ERA in just over 200 IP this season and looked fantastic in September against my Mets. Needless to say, I'm disappointed he's not out of the division. While Olsen may never develop to be more than a #4 starter, he's much better than most of the pitchers the Nationals were throwing out there last season. And hey, he's a young starter! There aren't too many of those who come cheap!

(Note: I cannot believe that the Nationals gave up on Bonifacio so quickly. Wasn't this the guy that they traded Rauch for straight up? What gives? The trade today really makes me scratch my head even more at the Rauch deal and makes me wonder what Jim Bowden was smoking during when he consummated that deal. Bravo!)

As for Willingham, no one will ever confuse him for a gold glove defender, but the guy shure can hit and get on base. Injuries limited Willingham this season, but Willingham should produce a .270 batting average with 20 homers, 85 RBI, and a .350-.360 OBP. Those numbers, while unspectacular, are an upgrade for the Nationals who have had to suffer through Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, and Willie Harris for too long. All of a sudden, an outfield of Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Willingham doesn't look too bad. If nothing else, Willingham gives the Nationals some protection for Ryan Zimmerman and a power threat that they lacked in 2008.

Neither guy is bound for stardom, but this trade works well for the Nationals. Yes, they will be adding some salary, especially after arbitration, but the benefits significantly outweigh the costs in this situation. So kudos to you Mr. Bowden, lets hope for your sake the Nationals play better in 2009.

More on the Marlins tomorrow.
(Photo: Deadspin)

Why the Matt Holliday Trade Works

So it appears that the inevitable trade of Matt Holliday has finally happened. But shockingly, Holliday was not traded to Cardinals, Yankees, or any other "big market" club. Instead, it was the small market Athletics that shocked the baseball world by acquiring Holliday. It's easy to see the negatives here: Holliday's home/away splits, the contract, giving up lots of talent; but I like this trade. And I love what Billy Beane is doing. Here's why:

1. the contract
-While so many look at Holliday's contract and think rental, I look at it as an opportunity. Holliday is not only a great player, but a great asset to have. As we saw with CC Sabathia, teams can still get a premium package for a guy if they move him in the middle of the season. Given the desperation of teams in the middle of the season, Beane should have no problem moving Holliday...if that's what he chooses. In the current market, it would be much easier to start a bidding war for Holliday's services in the middle of the season rather than at the start of free agency. The market is more likely to be barren and Holliday could be the final piece to any championship puzzle.

2. He makes the team better
-The Athletics offense sucked big time last season. They were last in batting average, total bases, slugging percentage, and most surprisingly, OBP. Holliday hit .321 last season with 25 homers and 88 RBI with an impressive .409 OBP...so he would obviously be a great fit here, especially with his high OBP. The A's become instantly better with Holliday in their lineup and who knows, maybe they can actually compete in 2009, especially if they add another hitter or two.

And if anyone wants to scream at me about Holliday's stats away from Coors Field, I will immediately point you in the direction of Holliday's 2008 road stats.

BA: .308
HR: 10
OBP: .405

While those numbers aren't ridiculous, they are still great stats, especially for an Athletics team that needs all the help they can get. This guy can hit, plain and simple.

3. Maybe they can sign him
-Depending on who you read/listen to, the Athletics could be pretty serious about signing Holliday long term. If this is the case, then this trade would make even more sense and would give the Athletics the bonafide star they are missing thanks to the demise of Eric Chavez. By acquiring him early, the A's are giving themselves are better chance to make a run at Holliday should they decide that they do indeed want to sign him long term.

Is it a shock that this story came out today? I think not. A potential new stadium would go a long way into giving the Athletics the loot to go after Holliday. Get it done Mr. Wolff.

(Note: This would be a tremendous change of pace from the fiscally conservative Athletics. I would love to see them sign Holliday, but at the same time, I would be saddened. Giving Billy Beane more resources to work with would be a travesty. MONEYBALL!)

4. What are they really giving up here?
-First off, I love Carlos Gonzalez. He has more tools than most guys will ever dream of and has stardom written all over him. There is a reason why he was the centerpiece in the Dan Haren deal. He's that good. But if there was ever a position where the Athletics had both depth and a need to upgrade, it was in the outfield. On top of Gonzalez, the Athletics have Aaron Cunningham, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, Rajai Davis, and Chris Denorfia. What do those guys all have in common? They are all young and somewhat unproven. The Athletics could not afford another season of Russian Roulette in the outfield and Holliday gives them a power bat who is well established in the league. If there was a position where the Athletics could afford to deal and needed to upgrade at the same time, its in the outfield.

-And if people are gonna cry about losing Greg Smith then there is something wrong. Smith was alright in his first major league season, but will he be able to sustain that in the future? I doubt it. Smith walks too many hitters and declined rapidly after May. Keep in mind that the Athletics also have Josh Outman, Sean Gallagher, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez, all of whom have potential and can replace Smith. Depth, depth, depth, depth, depth. Greg Smith is a good pitcher, but he is replaceable.

-And I'm not sure if Hutson Street is the third player included, but if he is, this would be another loss that would be mitigated by the Athletics depth. Between Brad Ziegler, Santiago Castilla, Andrew Brown, Jeremy Blevins, and Joey Devine, the Athletics have more than enough arms to replace the inconsistent Street.

So yes, the Athletics are giving up several talented players to get Holliday, but the their depth, which has been accumulated from past trades of Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, and Joe Blanton allowed Billy Beane to pull the trigger on this deal. Once again, nicely done Billy.
(Photo: Forbes)

My Mediocre Organization: Toronto Blue Jays

I feel sorry for Blue Jays fans, really I do. It seems as though every year we believe that the Blue Jays are going to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox for the division crown, but the Jays have yet to come close. The problem certainly has not been money: the Blue Jays have a $97 million dollar payroll and have invested big bucks into Vernon Wells, BJ Ryan, Alex Rios, and AJ Burnett. While $97 million dollars is nothing close to the Yankees, that money is certainly good enough to build a winning baseball team. The AL East is a definite barrier to success for the Blue Jays, but what has held this franchise back from reaching the promise land? Let's take a look.

Free Agents
It wasn't too long ago that the Blue Jays spent very little on free agents, but at the end of 2005, the Blue Jays new ownership group agreed to expand the payroll some $30-$40 million dollars. The Blue Jays landed the guys they coveted, but the results have been very mixed. The Blue Jays signed SP AJ Burnett to a very controversial 5 year/$55 million dollar contract in the hopes that he would develop into a solid #2 to complement Roy Halladay. Burnett has looked very good at times (2008 season), but has struggled to stay healthy as evident by his four stints to the DL in three seasons with the Blue Jays. Not having Burnett on the mound every fifth day on a consistent basis has undoubtedly hurt the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays also signed BJ Ryan to a 5 year/$47 million dollar contract to solidify the back end of their bullpen. This move was the most controversial of the winter because of amount of years and dollars that GM JP Riccardi was willing to give a closer. Riccardi got his moneys worth in 2006 as Ryan posted a 1.37 ERA and was named to the all star team. However, the good vibes quickly ended when Ryan missed the entire 2007 season because of Tommy John Surgery. Who knows if the Jays could have seriously competed in 2007 with a healthy Ryan, but without him, the Jays struggled to make noise and faded back into mediocrity.

The final big name free agent pickup actually occurred in 2007. In signing DH Frank Thomas, Riccardi believed that he finally had a big bat in the middle of the order that could protect Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. Thomas actually had a pretty good season in 2007 with 26 HRs and 95 RBI, which made the deal look pretty good. But by May 2008, the deal looked terrible. Thomas could no longer get around on a fastball and the Blue Jays were sick of waiting for him to come around. Frustrated and fading in the standings, the Blue Jays released Thomas after he refused to accept a diminished role. The inconsistency of Thomas from 2007 to 2008 was a major reason why the Blue Jays struggled in the first half of 2008.

So what do all these free agent pickups have in common? Good players? Absolutely. Have they been on the field consistently? Hell no. Houston, I think we have found a problem....

Trades
Over the past few seasons, the Blue Jays have made few impact trades, instead choosing to build their team through the draft and free agency. The lone exceptions have been the acquisitions of Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, and Scott Rolen. What do all three have in common? Injuries and inconsistent play.

Riccardi acquired Glaus in 2006 for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista to be the middle of the order bat that he felt the Blue Jays were lacking. And in 2006, Glaus delivered the power with 38 HR, but only hit .252 for the season. Unfortunately, Glaus's second season was plagued by a heel injury, which limited him to only 115 games. It is hard for a team to succeed when one of their best hitters misses significant amounts of time.

After the 2007 season, Riccardi traded Glaus for 3b Scott Rolen, who they hoped would provide solid production from the plate to compliment his stellar defensive ability. Unfortunately for the Jays, Rolen was limited to only 115 games this season because of a fractured middle finger. Even more concerning is the reality that Rolen appears to be well past his prime, only a shell of his former all-star self. If the Jays are going to succeed, they need Rolen to be healthy and productive.

The trend of injury and inconsistency continues with Lyle Overbay, who was acquired from the Brewers for Dave Bush. In his three seasons with the Jays, Overbay has produced solid seasons in both 2006 and 2008, but failed to stay healthy in 2007 after breaking several bones in his hand. Overbay is a good player...just needs to stay healthy. Same ole' song and dance.

And one final trade, one of Riccardi's best moves seemed to be moving headcase Shea Hillenbrand to the Giants for Jeremy Accardo. Accardo was wonderful in 2007, filling in for the injured BJ Ryan, but by 2008, Accardo was hurt (does this surprise anyone!). He missed most of the 2008 season with right forearm tightness. Yikes. Can anyone in this organization stay healthy?

*I don't think I can really criticize Riccardi here because I don't think that any of these trades were atrocious, but the Jays simply had horrible luck as none of these guys can consistently stay healthy. The talent is there, but for some reason, the baseball Gods obviously don't like Toronto. Weird.*

Draft
You have to give credit to the Blue Jays for building competitive teams primarily through the draft. Just take a look at some of these names:
Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Aaron Hill, Alexis Rios, Adam Lind, Travis Snider, and Jesse Litsch.

Anytime you can find eight quality players from previous drafts, you know your doing something right. You would figure that the Blue Jays would have a solid foundation with all of these guys for the next few years, but we have already seen the injury bug strike. Take a look:

-Dustin McGowan: Labrum Surgery (missed most of 2008)
-Shaun Marcum: Tommy John Surgery (done for 2009)
-Aaron Hill: Concussion (missed most of 2008)
(nice burns McGowan....)

Seriously, how does one franchise have this many injuries to key players? It is a testament to the depth in the organization that the Blue Jays did not totally fall apart this season after losing Hill and McGowan, while Marcum pitched with obvious discomfort. The baseball Gods really do hate the Blue Jays.

Look out for Travis Snider in the years to come: he is an absolute stud. No young hitter impressed me more this season in limited time than Snider. This guy can flat out rake...it seems like every ball that comes off his bat is a line drive. He's going to be special so long as he avoids the Blue Jays injury bug. I also like Brett Cecil, Kevin Aherns, and JP Arencibia; but none of those guys compares to Snider. The Blue Jays system is very middle heavy...lots of average to above average prospects, but no real studs besides Snider.

Prediction
*The Blue Jays are still a few pieces away from competing with the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees in the AL East. Even if they can stay healthy, I don't think they have the starting pitching at the moment to stay competitive for a long period of time.

Unfortunately, it could be awhile before the Jays can seriously compete for an AL East title. Like years past, there is just too much depth there.

Nothing is worse than being mediocre. The Jays are strong enough where they should be able to compete, but unfortunately, their best opportunities might already be behind them. This must be torture for Jays fans. Too many injuries. Too much inconsistency. Too much bad luck. So what's there to do now? I say start fresh. JP Riccardi should see what he can get for Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, BJ Ryan or even Roy Halladay. Being average is no fun and sometimes you have to take a few steps back before you can move forward. Or GM JP Riccardi can simply pray to the baseball Gods that some of his players actually stay healthy for once...jeez.

Worth a Penny

In the wake of AJ Burnett opting out, another flame throwing right handed pitcher has been granted free agency. Today the Dodgers declined the $9 million dollar option on Brad Penny, who never really got going in 2008. Totally understand this move from the Dodgers perspective... how could you commit $9 mil to a injury prone starter when you need to spend every dime available for Manny Ramirez.

Penny dealt with a array of arm and shoulder problems this season, which prevented him from successfully locating his pitches. I vividly recall Penny pitching against the Mets this season, still throwing in the high 90s, but Penny seemed to miss on his location more often than not. Throwing 98+ can only get you so far when you can't locate pitches. Ultimately, this season was a waste for Penny.

With that said, I would happily sign Penny to a contract. There is no way that Penny will garner the amount of attention or dollars that AJ Burnett will because of Penny's injuries and poor performance. But I ask, who would you rather sign?

-Burnett: 5 year deal/$12-$15 mil per season/injury prone/flame thrower/31 years old/lots of K's
-Penny: 1-3 year deal/$6-$10 mil per season/injury prone/flame thrower/30 years old

So as you can see, the differences between these two are slim. The main difference is that Penny was hurt last season, while Burnett was not. Good timing of AJ's part...now he can get the long term deal, while Penny, in all likelihood, settles for a shorter contract. But you know what, Penny's willingness to sign a short deal is a positive. How many top flight starters can you sign to a 1-3 year deal when he's still in his prime? Not many. Furthermore, since Penny will have a tough time commanding top dollar on this market, so he will be motivated to show teams that he is worth the big bucks in the years to come. Simply put, Penny has alot to prove. I'll take my chances on any pitcher who throws 98+ with a point to prove.

So while some view Penny as damaged goods, I see him as a fantastic opportunity. And I would take Penny and his contract any day over AJ Burnett. Hope your not listening, Brian Cashman. Look for Penny to have a huge 2009...as long as he's healthy.

Connecting the Dots

Hmmm...coincidence anyone? On the same day that the Yankees free up $35 million dollars by not picking up the options of Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano, Blue Jays SP AJ Burnett announced that he will opt out of his contract and become a free agent. This seems to be a match made in heaven...the Yankees want to add two front line starters while Burnett wants to make more money than God. Match made in heaven!

Burnett has everything that the Yankees are looking for in a pitcher: he's young, he throws 98+, and is a Yankee killer. Oh yeah, Burnett has a long history of injuries, is frequently inconsistent, and will cost a boatload of money. Injuries? Who cares about injuries? It's not like the Yankees had Carl Pavano for the last four years. And money? Please. The Yankees are absolutely flushed with cash...what will it hurt to offer Burnett ace money when in reality, he is no better than a #2 or #3? Only Hank can answer that.

Mark my words, if AJ Burnett winds up in pinstripes, Yankee fans from coast to coast will be disappointed in his performance. Burnett has all the potential in the world, but he has never sustained that potential over a long period of time. You can understand why a team like the Yankees would want Burnett: he reeks of potential. But at what point does that vast potential simply turn into massive frustration? That's the story of AJ Burnett and that is exactly why the large amounts of money the Yankees could throw at Burnett will only lead to frustration.
(Photo: AP)

Have Fun with that, Mike Maddux

The Rangers announced yesterday that they have signed Mike Maddux to be their pitching coach. Maddux, who never had much of a major league career, has made a name for himself with the Brewers over the past few seasons as the team's pitching coach. Maddux took retreads like Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, and Derrick Turnbow and turned them into useful parts for the upstart Brewers. There is no doubt that the guy is a talented pitching coach, whatever that means.

But can he do it in Texas? I'm not so sure. Sure the Rangers have tons of retreads and AAAA pitchers, but there is no way that Maddux can fix them all! I mean, is there anything that Maddux can do with Luis Mendoza and his 8.67 ERA? Or how about Scott Feldman and his 5.29 ERA? I don't think minor adjustments will fix some of these guys; they just flat out suck. And oh my, the Rangers team ERA was 5.97! Yikes.

So if GM Jon Daniels is serious about fixing the Rangers pitching problems, then he needs to upgrade the talent. It's obvious that some of these guys on the Ranger's staff are simply not fit to pitch in the big leagues (Kameron Loe!); at least not yet (Matt Harrison!). Until the Rangers acquire some pitching talent, the Rangers porous pitching will continue to make Rangers' games hard to watch. I'm not saying that Mike Maddux will not do a good job, but he is not a miracle worker.

Like Orel Hershiser and Mark Connor before him, I expect Maddux to struggle. The staff will struggle because the talent is not there, but on top of that, the Ballpark at Arlington (Ameriquest Field!!!!) is a hellhole for pitchers. Don't believe me? Just go ask Kevin Millwood, Chan Ho Park, Vincente Padilla, all of whom have seen their careers flounder while their ERAs skyrocket as Rangers. It's hard to pitch in a place that has literally murdered the careers of many pitchers.

I hope that Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels will give Maddux the time and talent to develop quality pitchers in Texas. But somehow, I doubt that they will. Ryan will be too frustrated by the miserable pitching to watch his pitchers continue to flounder and at the same time, Daniels is on the hot seat, and needs results now. The Rangers pitching is an organizational problem from the top down. Maddux certainly has his work cut out for him, but the only way for the Rangers to compete is to find pitching talent-and that begins at the top. Eventually they will find out that Luis Mendoza's do not win pennants.

The Royals Continuous Assault on OBP

In 2008, the Royals were dead last in the MLB in team OBP. So entering the offseason, one would figure that the Royals top priority would be to increase their team OBP. However, all signs point otherwise. On Thursday, the Royals traded for Mike Jacobs and his .299 OBP. And then today, the Royals re-signed backup catcher Miguel Olivo and his .278 OBP. All I know is that both of these guys blend in very well with Jose Guillen and his .300 OBP.

Olivo is at best a backup catcher, but when your options are Olivo and John Buck, odds are Olivo will get a chunk of playing time because of his power and defense. Oh yeah, it was only two months ago that Olivo emphatically stated, "hell no" when asked if he would be back with the Royals in 2009. I guess Olivo has 2.7 million reasons why he wants to be back in KC.

I am one of the few who actually supports the Jacobs acquisition because I still feel like the move shored up a major weakness: the Royals had no power. But spending almost $3 million dollars on a scrub catcher who cannot consistently get on base...not too sure on that one.

Just Say No CC!

With the start of free agency quickly approaching, almost every major sports network has already determined that the Yankees will probably sign CC Sabathia simply because they will offer him more money than anyone else will. It's the perfect storm: the Yankees have about $80 million bucks coming off the books to throw at the best free agent pitcher since, gulp, Barry Zito. If CC does take the Yankees money, I don't think any of us could blame him. But just for fun, I tried to find as many reasons as I could for Sabathia to turn down the Yankees' potentially outrageous offer.

Reasons why CC Sabathia should NOT sign with the Yankees:

1. Comfort
Will you really be comfortable in New York CC? By all accounts, you love the west coast and would be totally content to spend the next 5-7 years of your career out west. If that's where your heart is, then why not follow it? Hell, even Milwaukee seemed to be a great fit for you. Is an extra $20-$30 million really that important to you? Think about your happiness and desires before committing long term to the Pinstripes.

2. National League
Most baseball people will agree that even though the Phillies won the World Series this season, that the National League is inferior to the American League. All you need to do is look at your God-like statistics with the Brewers for half a season and understand that you could build something special in the National League. Your legacy as one of the all-time great pitchers can be fostered by staying in the National League for awhile.

3. History
Look at the past fortunes of Yankee free agent pitchers: Jose Contreras, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa. What do they all have in common? They all stunk up the joint once they put on the pinstripes. Is there a correlation between free agent pitchers and Yankee cash? We may never know, but CC, do you really want to take that risk?

4. The Brewers
On top of all that CC, you have another ridiculous opportunity to explore if you choose to do so. Because of your phenomenal 2008 second half with the Brewers, the fans adore you and the front office is willing to jump through hoops to get you to stay with them. You would not need to proved yourself to a loyal legion of fans like Johan Santana did with the Mets and you would have a real chance to go out as a Brewers legend, especially if you bring Milwaukee a title. The iconic status that so few athletes achieve in a lifetime that is awaiting you in Milwaukee is nearly impossible to achieve elsewhere.

5. Expectations
If you decide to sign with the Yankees CC, think about what success will be. Yeah sure, every organization loves to make it the playoffs, but these are the Yankees, home to the Stienbrenner Doctrine that if you don't win a World Series, then the season has been a failure. So unless you win a title, the season will be marked as a failure. Do you really want that hanging over your head CC? If you don't deliver a title to these folks, they will view your signing as a failure. Every athlete wants to win, but those expectations are unreal. Final thought, how can it be fun playing when the expectations are astronomical? Isn't it fun to prove people wrong, do the impossible, or come out of nowhere? With the Yankees and their $200 million dollar payroll, astronomic expectations are all your gonna get.

6. Owners
Do you really want to surround yourself with the circus atmosphere of Hank Steinbrenner? If you do, your crazy, because this guy is everything is father was back in 1980s. And might I remind you how many titles the Yankees won with George's tyrannical ownership of the Yanks in the 80s: Zero. Plus, how many times do you want to be called out in the papers for having a few bad starts? Mark Attanasio and Arte Moreno look pretty good right now, don't they?

7. Talent
There is no doubt that the Yankees have an unbelievable collection of talent and more resources to produce talent than any other team in the majors. But can they be the best team? The Phillies won the World Series this year because they exemplified they had character, heart, and played passionate baseball on the biggest stage. By no means were they the most talented, but management understands that you cannot build a team simply by having all stars at every position. Teams have to have chemistry and mix in well together; characteristics that I'm not sure belong to the current group of Yanks.

8. Perception (David Wells Effect)
CC, do you want to be known as the lovable, plus sized teddy bear with a rubber arm (basically a better version of David Wells)? Or do you want to be known as the sellout who ran towards the almighty dollar? I'd rather be the fat, lovable, lefty any day.


So there you have it CC, the money is yours if that's what your after. But before your blown away by lots of loot and a crazy number of years, think about the big picture. Because in the end, its not all about dollars and cents.

Stay Home?

If you're like me, then you know that youth has become the newest fad in today's MLB. Young teams like the Rays, Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Indians have all made the playoffs over the past two years in large part because of their young core. In all honesty, this makes sense. Young players bring energy and exuberance, but most importantly, they are not past their prime like many of today's aging veterans. But even with the massive infusion of youth, there is a Jaime Moyer, who at 46 seems to have many good years ahead of him and is still in his prime, even with his grandfatherly age.

But most guys are not Jaime Moyer. Most players experience the natural regression of old age and diminished skills. But diminished skills does not always equal useless. Unless your name is Barry Bonds, most teams are willing to give experienced and successful veterans the chance to produce or see what they can do. At worst, they bring some name recognition. Case in point: David Cone with the Mets in 2004 or David Wells with the Padres and Dodgers in 2007. Both guys were terrible, but somehow managed to snag a job.

So which geezers SHOULD stay around? Who still has the skills to help a team? On the other side, which guys should stay home on the couch and get to know the family's TIVO a little better? Jorge Says No! takes a look:

Omar Vizquel: Let's look at the positives here: Vizquel can still field and he's still feuding with Jose Mesa, which is easily my favorite sports related mid nineties feud. After that, the positives are non-existent. Vizquel can no longer hit for average and is almost an automatic out at this point (.222 batting average this seasons). Unless Vizquel wants the "Rafael Belliard defensive specialist" role on a contending team, he should retire.
Verdict: Stay Home!
Tom Glavine: Only two years ago, Glavine was the only reliable starter for the Mets in their 2006 postseason run. He was loved by Mets fans for his gutty performances and ability to step up in the big moments. But his performance on the final day of the 2007 season changed everything. From there, it has been all downhill for Glavine. Known for his durability, Glavine missed a large portion of the season because of elbow and shoulder surgeries. Although Glavine was a very useful pitcher before 2008, there are not too many soft tossing lefties, who recover well from elbow and shoulder surgeries.
Verdict: Stay Home!

John Smoltz: Arm injuries are nothing new to the 41 year old Smoltz, but a torn labrum could potentially end his career. For the past seven seasons, Smoltz has delivered dominant results as both a starter and closer for the Braves. Many times Smoltz looked ageless and dominant, but how many pitchers pitch well after major shoulder surgery? Not many. Throw in Smoltz's age and this task appears to be too great to overcome. But if there is a pitcher that can come back from this, its Smoltz. The guy has too much heart and passion to simply give up without making a comeback attempt.
Verdict: Stay Around!
Ken Griffey Jr: Whenever I think about Junior's career, I can't help but feel some sort of sadness. Griffey was in his prime well before I really knew how special Griffey was. Griffey is only a shell of his former self, but he still can provide some value to a contending team. I would prefer to see Griffey involved in a platoon of some sort because he can no longer hit lefties well. I'm not sure if Griffey would accept a diminished role, but I'd love to see him try and win a championship.
Verdict: Stay Around!

Frank Thomas: I will be forever grateful to Thomas for helping me win my fantasy baseball league in 2007. Somehow at the age of 39, Thomas managed to hit 26 homers to go along with a .377 OBP. Injuries shortened Thomas' 2008 campaign right as he was getting going, but there is no reason why Thomas should not receive a job offer in 2009. Thomas can still hit, especially against lefties (.336 BA in 2007) and would make a great platoon DH. If Thomas would accept this role, I think he would thrive. I would love to see Frank with the Twins hitting near Mauer and Morneau. How well would that work?
(Note: If any team is going to sign Frank, be well aware that Thomas doesn't get going until at least May. The less Thomas plays in April, the better.)

If a team is going to take a shot on Thomas, they cannot solely depend on him because of the his diminished 2008 campaign and the injuries. I would happily take a chance on him either way because a motivated Frank Thomas is a scary hitter.
Verdict: Stay Around!

Jeff Kent: There is no doubt that Jeff Kent can hit. He has proven that throughout his entire career and will probably make it into the hall of fame. There is also no doubt that Jeff Kent is a pain in the ass. Between fighting with Barry Bonds, fighting with Milton Bradley, feuding with younger Dodgers, and finally, criticizing the immortal Vin Scully for "talking too much"; Kent brings controversy no matter where he goes. I hope that Kent decides to stay home. I'm sick of his antics. Enjoy the couch Jeff.
Verdict: Stay Home!

Pedro Martinez: Pedro is so far from his dominate self that it's actually tough to watch him. There was a period where I could be amazed by his guile and grittiness as Pedro masterfully navigated through lineups with terrible stuff, but by the end of 2008, Pedro could no longer survive without his dominant stuff. The 5.61 ERA this season does not fully exemplify how much Martinez actually struggled this year. It's clear to me that Pedro can be a good influence in whatever clubhouse he enters, but his days as a starter are gone. I'm sure someone will take a shot on Pedro as their fifth starter, but I doubt they will be able to get anything out of him.
Verdict: Stay Home!
(Photo: BBC)

Worth a Shot: Cory Sullivan

Whichever team decides to take a chance on Cory Sullivan will be grateful that they did. I'm not saying that Sullivan can be a starting outfielder, but there is no reason why Sullivan, 29, cannot at least compete for a starting job or be an effective fourth outfielder. Take into account that Sullivan was the starting outfielder for the Rockies in 2005 and 2006 before losing his spot after the Rockies traded for Wily Taveras. Sullivan was demoted before the 2007 season and unfortunately, never had another significant opportunity to gain his job back. Sullivan was granted free agency at the end of the 2008 season.

So what does Sullivan offer teams? Sullivan's game centers around line drives, high batting average, speed, and great defense. In the minors this season, Sullivan hit .320 with 7 HR, 43 RBI, and 13 SB for AAA Colorado Springs. Those are some fantastic statistics, but in addition, Sullivan has hit well in the majors before. In 2005, Sullivan hit .294 in 378 ABs and in 2006, Sullivan hit a respectable .267 in 386 ABs for the Rockies. However, Sullivan struggled to maintain a high OBP with the Rockies in 2005 and 2006, but it is encouraging to note that Sullivan managed a .373 OBP this season in AAA. In addition, by all accounts, Sullivan plays a fantastic center field. Known for his phenomenal range and ability to patrol center field, Sullivan would be a perfect fit in large stadiums (hello Marlins and Astros). Sullivan is not exceptional in any aspect of the game, but he has many attributes to offer any franchise.

Sullivan will never be confused for Matt Holliday, or even Brad Hawpe for that matter, but what he can offer a team is a solid lefty bat and tremendous defense. Hey, if Endy Chavez can have a job with the Mets because of his great defense and mediocre bat, then there is no reason why Sullivan should not have a job with a major league club. At worst, he provides the organization with valuable depth at a premium position.

All he needs is the chance, you'll thank me later.

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Orlando Hudson

When the Diamondbacks traded for Orlando Hudson after the 2005 season, they thought they knew exactly what they were getting: a great defensive second baseman who was a decent hitter. What they soon discovered was that Hudson was a much better player than his numbers had shown. On top of the gold glove defense, Hudson's batting average and OBP have increased to career highs while Hudson still delivers gold glove defense. Hudson's stellar play was a prime reason for the improved play of the Diamondbacks in 2007 and into 2008.

The Case for Hudson
-His glove.
Throughout his entire career, Hudson has been well known for his stellar play at second base. Hudson has won three gold gloves at the position and demonstrates phenomenal range and soft hands.

-The offense
Despite the Dustin Pedroias, Chase Utleys, and Ian Kinslers of the world, it is still difficult to find a second baseman who hits well at the plate. While Hudson is not in the category of these three guys, his offensive production has steadily increased to the point where Hudson can be a solid #2 or #6 hitter for most teams. Whatever team signs Hudson can count on a .290 batting average with 10-15 HR and 60-70 RBI. I tell you this much, I'd take that any day over Luis Castillo.

-Lefties? Righties? Who cares?
It's important to recognize that Hudson is unlike many other left handed hitters, especially second baseman. Over the past three seasons, Hudson's splits against lefties and righties have been phenomenal. Take a look:

2006: .270 (vs. RHP) .338 (vs. LHP)
2007: .298 (vs. RHP) .281 (vs. LHP)
2008: .321 (vs. RHP) .269 (vs. LHP)

Simply put, those splits are fantastic. Hudson is a guy who you want in the lineup regardless of whose pitching. With splits like this, Hudson would make a fantastic #2 hitter on many teams.

-"Clubhouse guy"
By all accounts, Hudson is the perfect clubhouse leader. With his infectious mix of energy and enthusiasm, Hudson has made his mark in the clubhouse with both the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks. So yes, most teams would love to have a guy like Hudson simply for his leadership abilities, but would they be willing to pay more because of this? I hope the Mets will, but we'll find out.

The Case Against Hudson
-Can he stay healthy?
In each of the past two seasons, Hudson's season has ended prematurely because of hand and wrist injuries. Both injuries were rather freak occurrences (sliding awkwardly into a base and colliding with Braves C Brian McCann), but both injuries greatly weakened the Diamondbacks. Even if Hudson is fully healed by spring training, Hudson's injury history is certainly not a positive addition to his resume and is by far, the biggest question Hudson must answer during the free agent process.

-Age.
Hudson, who will turn 31 in December, is no spring chicken. Sure he is still in his "prime years", but after all of the injuries, teams have to wonder how long Hudson will be able to maintain his production.

Competition
Perhaps the best thing Hudson has going for him is that the other free agent second basemen are pretty bad. Do you really want to take a chance on the inconsistent Nick Punto? Or how about the aging, injured, and perennial headcase, Jeff Kent? Even if Hudson is not one of the top second basemen in baseball, he is by far the best second baseman in this class.

And lucky for him, there are many teams that could be looking for a second baseman. I think the following teams will be interested: Mets, Indians, White Sox, Cardinals, and Dodgers to all express interest in Hudson. And how about the Cubs here? Hudson would provide major stability to an infield that looked atrocious during the NLCS.

Prediction
(4 years/$38 mil)
I admit that Hudson doesn't stand out to as a guy who deserves close to $10 mil per season. But in this market, with so many teams potentially needing a second basemen, I see the competition becoming fierce for Hudson's services. And how about this, take a look at these contracts given out to other second basemen. What do they all have in common? Hudson is a better bet than any of those guys and offers more intangibles (offense, defense, clubhouse) than any of these guys.

-Kaz Matsui (3 years/$16.5 mil)
-Luis Castillo (4 years/$26 mil)
-Robinson Cano (4 years/$30 mil)

So in turn, Hudson deserves to be paid more than each of these guys. And I'm very confident that he will find a few teams willing to pay for his services. However, if Hudson is looking for a contract similar to that of Chase Utley, he will be massively disappointed.