Not Smart, Bud

Apparently, Bud Selig is seriously considering suspending Alex Rodriguez for admitting that he used steroids from 2001-2003.

From nydailynews.com:

"It was against the law, so I would have to think about that," Selig told the paper. "It's very hard. I've got to think about all that kind of stuff."

"He's open to everything. That doesn't mean he can do everything. He's keeping all options open," MLB spokesman Rich Levin told the Daily News, referring to Selig."

There are so many things wrong with suspending A-Rod that it's ridiculous.

For starters A-Rod used admitted to using steroids five years ago when there was no steroid testing or punishments for players who tested positive. Suspending A-Rod now would be some kind of ex post facto and would probably do more harm that good to Selig's image.

And how about the other 103 players who tested positive for steroids who were on the same list as A-Rod? How can Selig justifiably suspend A-Rod while not taking action against any of the other 103? It's unfair enough that A-Rod was the only name to come off this list and suspending only A-Rod would make this look like a witch hunt.

And finally, when will the higher ups at major league baseball take some of the blame for this mess? It's easy to place all the blame on the players, because hey, they took the stuff, but the fact remains that there was no testing or punishment for steroid use and many owners turned a blind eye when they heard rumors about steroids. Ultimately, profit overtook the purity of the game and for that, owners must take responsibility.

The steroid era is going to leave a painful and permanent black eye on baseball. And you know what, the A-Rod confession was probably just the start of it. I'm sure there were hundreds more who used steroids and some (if not most) of those names will eventually get out. It's easy for Selig to make an example of A-Rod right now, but he would be setting a horrible precedent and be awfully unfair.

Why Sign Adam Dunn?

ESPN.com's Keith Law makes very interesting points in his most recent blog post about Adam Dunn and the Washington Nationals.

From ESPN.com:

"Developmental concerns aside, the big question for the Nationals is this: Why? Dunn won't be around long enough to be part of the first winning Nationals team. Even if Dunn has one of his best years, the Nationals are still the favorite to finish last in the NL East and unlikely to finish above fourth. As mentioned above, they have done a terrible job of using the trade market to restock their farm system -- a route that Oakland, Texas, and Cleveland have recently used to vault their systems into the top five in the game -- and the tepid market for Dunn this winter doesn't bode well for his trade value. Dunn didn't net a draft pick for Arizona, so there's no reason to assume the Nats will get a pick or two for him after 2010.

Dunn's contract becomes $20 million for a few meaningless wins over the next two years. Moves like that don't usually push a franchise backward, but they don't push it forward, either."

I don't think anyone in their right mind thinks that the Nationals can compete in 2009 or even 2010. Law is 100% right here.

This brings us to the question: why did the Nationals spend $20 million bucks on Dunn when they still remain a long distance away from competing for a playoff birth? It seems illogical and somewhat stupid on the surface, but I see exactly where GM Jim Bowden was going with this move.

You have to understand how insignificant the Nationals have become in Washington DC. Sure, the Nationals have a nice, new stadium for fans to watch a game in, but they had no players who fans actually wanted to come see play. There was no buzz. No reason to get excited.

Hell, one can only be so excited watching a bunch of retreads and young guys fight just to avoid losing 100 games in a season and the cellar seems to be this team's ceiling.

So that's why Dunn means so much for the Nationals. He gives the fans a reason to care. The Nationals have never had a power presence in the middle of their lineup like Dunn before. The once futile Nationals lineup now has an actual presence and a good chance to score some runs and stay competitive in games.

Most importantly, this move shows that the front office actually gives a damn. For too long, the Nats front office simply signed the best retread they could find instead of trying to sign major free agents. As a result, no one wanted to go to DC and the Nationals failed to build anything substantial. The signing of Dunn should at least give fans hope that the Nationals are willing to go after free agents and can actually sign a big name-even if they have to overpay.

This team will not make the playoffs in 2009. There is a very good chance that they could lose 90+ games again and finish 20+ games out of first place. But Dunn is a symbol that yes, there might actually be a better day for the Nationals in the near future.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 2012. Any guesses?

Mets Problem: Who Should Hit #2?

The New York Mets are expected to have one of the best offenses in baseball in 2009. Between Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and David Wright; there is no reason why the Mets should not score at least 750-850 runs. There lineup could, and should, be that good.

At the same time, the Mets lineup has a gigantic problem already. Who will hit #2 in the order?

Daniel Murphy is the obvious choice. Murphy, one of the Mets best prospects, hit .313 in only 131 ABs and produced an impressive .397 OBP. He has a fantastic approach at the plate and has no problem working into deep counts and taking lots of pitches. There is no doubt that Jose Reyes would benefit greatly from having Murphy hit behind him. The lineup should be fantastic with Murphy in the #2 hole.

Unfortunately, the Mets still have Luis Castillo. The second baseman put together a miserable 2008 campaign where he only hit .245 with 46 runs scored and looked like a shell of his former self. Castillo is nothing more than a singles hitter and has virtually no ability to hit for power. Castillo was supposed to be the Mets #2 hitter in 2008 because he could take lots of pitches for Jose Reyes, get on base, execute the hit and run, and pinch hit. He is the prototypical #2 hitter and really should not be hitting anywhere else in the lineup.

And that's where the problem lies for the Mets. If they have Murphy hit second, they will have a very strong lineup 1-6 with:

Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Delgado
Beltran
Chruch.

However, after that, the Mets will have either Schneider/Castro, Castillo, and the pitcher. None of those guys are particularly good hitters and the bottom of the Mets order could become a quick and easy 1-2-3 inning. These guys have the potential to be automatic outs, which is obviously not good for the Mets.

So herein lies the dilemma: should the Mets have the best 1-6 possible by having Murphy bat second or make the lineup deeper by having the inferior Castillo bat second? It's going to be a tough decision, but ultimately I think the Mets will give Castillo the first crack the job. They have a lot of money invested in Castillo, and for their sake, they need to see something from Castillo.

Omar Minaya better be praying to his lucky stars that Castillo's 2008 season was simply an aberration and he produces in 2009. Lord knows, Mets fans will not take another three years of a .250, slap hitting, slow footed second baseman.

So who should hit second: the scrub Luis Castillo, or the wunderkid, Daniel Murphy? All opinions welcome.

What to do with Nick Johnson?

So now that the Nationals have made the big move by signing Adam Dunn, the question remains: what will the Nationals do with first baseman Nick Johnson? At one time, Johnson was thought of as the Nationals first baseman of the future because of his ability to get on base and great defensive ability, but injuries have derailed his once promising career. Johnson has not been healthy since 2006 and has only gotten 500 ABs in a season once. Not good.

With the signing of Dunn, Johnson will be relegated to the bench. Even though Dunn played left field for the Reds, he probably will be moved to first base because the Nationals already have something like 14 outfielders (slight exaggeration). The signing of Dunn ultimately will leave Johnson on the outside looking in.

Johnson is owed $5.5 million this season and will be a free agent after this season. It's pretty clear at this point that the Nationals will not be looking to re-sign Johnson after this season because they will already have Dunn. It's obvious that Johnson is no longer viewed as a long term solution for the Nationals.

So there are two schools of thought:

1. Trade Johnson
-Johnson is not likely to get any playing time with the Nationals this season and it would be best for both parties if the Nationals try to move Johnson. The Nationals will probably not get much back in return and might even have to pick up some of Johnson's salary, but anything the Nationals can get back in return will be more valuable in the future than Johnson will.

I would expect the Mariners, Angels, Athletics, and maybe even the Giants to be interested.

2. Hold Johnson
-Interestingly enough, holding onto Johnson might actually put the Nationals in a power position down the road. Many rosters are set and most teams have maxed out their payrolls, which means that there would not be many suitors interested in Johnson.

If the Nationals hold onto Johnson for the first few months of the season, it's inevitable that some team will experience injuries or poor performance at first base. If he proves to be healthy, Johnson could be an attractive option for a team in need.

The Nationals could get more value for Johnson in a few months than they would right now.

In addition, if the Nationals are serious about competing this season (which I doubt), then it would certainly help them to have as many talented players on their roster as possible.

I think the Nationals need to focus on the future even with Adam Dunn on board. The focus should be acquiring as many assets as possible to compete down the road. If Bowden can use Johnson to acquire some young talent, then he has to do it.

No matter which option GM Jim Bowden chooses, I just hope that Johnson is able to stay healthy and finds a good place to play. Johnson is one of my favorite players to watch and plays the game the right way and it would be an absolute travesty if this guy cannot reach his potential because of injuries.

Nationals Sign Adam Dunn

Well, that was quick.

Just one day after I pleaded with the Nationals to add talent, the Nationals signed Adam Dunn to a very reasonable two year contract worth $20 million big ones. The deal gives the Nationals the power hitting presence in the middle of their order that they have been missing since they came to Washington DC.

Here is what I wrote just a week ago about Dunn and the Nationals:

"Hypothetically speaking, I think the Nationals would actually be a pretty good fit for Dunn. Odds are the Nationals would have to overpay for Dunn because nobody wants to come to DC right now except for that Obama guy. The Nationals are not exactly a hot bed for free agents and the baseball culture in DC is still a work in progress. However, at the same time, if you stick Dunn in the middle of the Nationals lineup (in between Milledge and Zimmerman), all of a sudden that lineup does not look so bad. The big donkey could actually put up some huge numbers in that lineup and help those young players develop.

But there is no way to get around it, the Nationals are Dunn's last option. He does not want to go there...period. But at the same time, the Nationals may be Dunn's last option if he wants to get a big payday. Something in the 2 year/$26 million dollar range would not be unreasonable for either side and would allow Dunn to become a free agent again at the age of 32."

So obviously, I love this move for Dunn and the Nationals. Dunn has his deficiencies (defense, batting average, RISP), but everyone knows that he brings so much to the table with his power and ability to get on base that it would have been foolish for the Nationals not to go after him. It remains to be seen how effective Dunn will be at first base, but I look forward to watching Dunn perform in DC. He instantly becomes one of the most talented players to put on a Nationals jersey. Good move, Jim Bowden.

I might have to go buy some Nationals tickets now...

The Market For Juan Cruz

I feel for Juan Cruz, really I do. After failing to live up to the huge expectations with the Cubs, Cruz has turned his career around in the bullpen with the Diamondbacks. Last season, the free agent to be put up the best numbers in his career, producing a stellar 2.61 ERA and striking out 71 in only 51 innings.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that Cruz would be in line for a big contract. Just last season, the White Sox gave RP Scott Linebrink, the best middle relief pitcher on the market, a 4 year contract worth $18 million bucks. A contract similar to Linebrink's should not have been out of the question for Cruz, one of the best free agents on the 2008 market.

However, the market for Juan Cruz has surprisingly bottomed out. Cruz has been hurt by the poor economy as teams have cut back on their spending and long term deals. Also, Cruz's market has been severely undercut by the free agent compensation system, which labeled Cruz as a type A free agent. Because of his type A status, any team who signed Cruz would have to surrender their first round pick.

Because of the terrible economy, that's a price that many teams have been unwilling to pay.

As a result, Cruz remains a free agent with only a few days to go until spring training. There has been virtually no buzz for Cruz and it remains to be seen where he will end up.

Let's take a look at some potential landing spots for Cruz:

Diamondbacks: To me, this scenario makes the most sense for all parties involved. The Diamondbacks would not have to surrender their first round pick for Cruz since he played for them last season and signing Cruz would give the Diamondbacks one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. And for Cruz, this is a good situation for him. He has flourished in the desert before and if has a good 2009, then there is no reason why he cannot capitalize on the market again after the season.

A one year deal would be great. Make it happen, Josh Byrnes.

Yankees: Like the Diamondbacks, the Yankees would not have to surrender their first round pick if they signed Cruz (already lost to Angels). However, GM Brian Cashman has stated that the Yankees are done and not looking to add to the roster, which would eliminate them from signing Cruz.

Mets: I would love to see the Mets add Cruz. If 2007 and 2008 have taught Mets fans anything, its that you can never have too much bullpen. Even with Putz and K-Rod, the Mets would have a dominant bullpen if they added Cruz to the mix. Plus, the Mets would not have to surrender their first round pick (already lost to Angels).

However, GM Omara Minaya has stated that the Mets are done and are not looking to add to their roster, which would eliminate them from signing Cruz. Sound familiar?

Tigers: The Tigers seem to have reached their payroll limit, especially after signing Brandon Lyon, but the fact remains that their bullpen is weak. Cruz would help fill a huge void, but it remains to be seen if the Tigers are willing to give up their second round pick or dish out the dough for Cruz. I think not.

Dodgers: If the Dodgers sign Orlando Hudson, then they will only have to surrender their second round pick, and not their first to sign Cruz. Under that scenario, Cruz makes a lot of sense for the Dodgers. He would provide depth to the back end of the bullpen and make the Dodgers pen potentially dominant. However, like most teams, it remains to be seen if the Dodgers will have enough money to offer something substantial to Cruz.

Japan: Hey, if Cruz is only concerned about the money and has no other offers, he can go here. Sayonara.

As we can see, it's not a good time to be Juan Cruz or his agent. This should have been a great time for Juan Cruz, but instead, he has become a market casualty because of his type A status.

It's time to change the free agent compensation rules, major league baseball.

Tony Reagins Has Finally Woken Up

About time:

"Free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu is in serious talks toward a one-year agreement with the Los Angeles Angels, two baseball sources told ESPN.com.

Abreu, 34, is one of the premier hitters left on the market this offseason. The Angels jumped into negotiations with a big push this week and have emerged as clear front-runners. Although the two sides still have some issues to work through, a source said an agreement could be reached before the start of spring training this weekend in Arizona."

I have been saying for more than a month now that the Angels needed to step up and add a big time hitter to their lineup.

Back in January I wrote:

"Angels: The Angels are in dire need of another impact bat to hit in front of Vladimir Guerrero and Abreu would be a good fit. However, GM Tony Reagins has previously stated that the Angels will give their younger players a chance to fill the voids left by Garret Anderson and Mark Teixeira. If Reagins comes to his senses, the Angels could become serious competitors in the American League."

And after months of staying on the sidelines, the Angels finally got in the game. It has been reported that the Angels are now in "serious negotiations" with Bobby Abreu on a contract for 2009. Angels GM Tony Reagins has finally woken up, and Angels fans should be thrilled about it.

Just take a look at this lineup (or something like it):

3b Chone Figgins
2b Howie Kendrick
Rf Bobby Abreu
DH Vladimir Guerrero
CF Torri Hunter
Lf Juan Rivera/Gary Matthews Jr.
1b Kendry Morales
C Mike Napoli
SS Erick Aybar

Now, that lineup will not compare with the Yankees or even the Red Sox. But that lineup has a lot of productive parts in it and Abreu is a great fit hitting in front of Vladimir Guerrero because of his patience, ability to get on base, and solid production. Anytime you can add a guy who can hit .300 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, and a .370 OBP, you know the lineup should improve.

With the addition of Abreu, the Angels are now looking pretty strong. Are they contenders for the AL pennant? I say yes....what do you think?

Holes to Fill: NL East Edition

*Yes, it's February. Normally, rosters are pretty set by now as most of the major moving and shaking has already occurred on the free agent and trade market. However, this off season has been different. There are still many quality free agents still out there and plenty of teams with holes to fill (no dirty minds, people). So we'll break this down, division by division, to see who could still go where and what holes need some filling*

Braves: Outfield
The Braves have done a good job this off season fixing up their starting rotation. By adding Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Javier Vazquez to their rotation, the Braves now have a deep and stable rotation that should be able give Manager Bobby Cox lots of quality innings.

However, the Braves still have a gaping hole in the outfield, where some combination of Gregor Blanco, Josh Anderson, Matt Diaz, and Brandon Jones is expected to play center field and left field. I' m not sure any of those guys have the goods to get the job done, and if the Braves are serious about competing in 2009, then they should make a strong run at Bobby Abreu.

In addition, a good fall back plan for the Braves would be to add Orlando Hudson to play second base and shifting Kelly Johnson, a defensive liability at second, to left field. This would improve the Braves infield defense and give them a quality bat in the outfield.

Do the Braves have the funds to pull off any more major moves? We'll see.

Phillies: Left Handed Relief Pitcher
The Phillies need to find a right handed hitter off the bench as well, but I think left handed relief pitcher is more of a priority at this point. With JC Romero on tap to miss the first 50 games of the season because of a failed steroid test, the Phillies need to find a suitable replacement.

Luckily for them, the market is still ripe with left handed relief pitchers. Between Joe Beimel, Will Ohman and Dennys Reyes; this market is loaded with quality yet affordable relief pitchers. The Phillies have already been linked to Ohman and Reyes, and it would not surprise me to see the Phillies add either of them.

At the same time, the Phillies could elect to go with Scott Eyre and hope that he is able to effectively fill the void. But with the way the market is going, it makes all the sense in the world for GM Ruben Amaro to go after another lefty.

Mets: Left Handed Relief Pitcher
Could the Mets and Phillies eventually compete for a left handed relief pitcher? Maybe. It depends on how much the Mets are willing to spend at this point.

Even though Omar Minaya has stated that the Mets are done going after free agents, anyone with two eyes will tell you that the Mets need another left handed relief pitcher to go along with Pedro Feliciano. The Mets bullpen has drastically improved on paper with K-Rod and JJ Putz, but adding another piece to the pen would really make the Mets competitive in 2009.

I would love to see either Ohman or Beimel added to the Mets roster, but at the same time, it would not shock me to see the Mets go the cheap route and simply hope that either Valerio De Los Santos, Casey Fossum, or Tom Martin develops into a quality option out of the bullpen.

Needless to say, Ohman or Beimel look like pretty good options right now...especially Ohman, who would not cost the Mets a draft pick.

Marlins: Catcher
I can say with certainty that the Marlins are not looking to spend. The always frugal club will enter 2009 with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. Despite this, I think the Marlins have a very good roster and they could compete for the NL East title.

Their biggest weakness to me is at catcher. John Baker had a great couple months with the Marlins at the end of 2008 by hitting .299 in 197 ABs. No one knows for sure if Baker will be able to handle the starting job in 2009, so I would love to see the Marlins add Ivan Rodriguez. Sure at this point, Pudge is a shell of his former sel, but he would be a great mentor for Baker and he would be a good option against left handed pitching.

And of course, Pudge would have to come to the Marlins at a cheap price...

Nationals: Talent.
This off season should be looked at as a disappointment by Nationals fans. Sure, the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham trade looks pretty good for the Nationals and yes, they made a big push to sign Mark Teixeira, but this off season could have been much better for the Nationals.

Think about it...the market stinks. There is an influx of quality free agents still available on the market because they either have had no interest or have priced themselves out of the market. Guys like Adam Dunn and Orlando Hudson came into the off season with high hopes for a big deal, but have fallen flat.

This is the point where I hoped the Nationals would have stepped in. With the market in such bad shape, the Nationals should have stepped up and blown either Hudson or Dunn (especially Hudson) away with an offer that exceed what any other team was offering. I know that the Nationals are not a hot place for free agents to come to, but money is a great reason to change people's minds. I'm not talking about a deal that is crazy, but a two-three year deal for either Hudson or Dunn would be perfectly reasonable in my eyes.

The Nationals need to add talent. If they ever want to attract a prime player like Teixeira, they need to have pieces around them. That's why I would love to see the Nats make a big play for either Dunn (who they might have already) or Hudson and pray to the baseball Gods that they get one of them.

Nationals fans need a reason to care or at least be excited...adding either guy would add some buzz to the lifeless franchise.

Do The Kyle Lohse!

Last off season, despite a free weak free agent class, SP Kyle Lohse was unable to nab a long term contract. Lohse was coming off a mediocre season with the Reds and Phillies in which he only won nine games and produced a less than spectacular 4.62 ERA. Nevertheless, Lohse still thought that he would be able to exploit the market and get a long term deal with a team desperate for starting pitching.

However, Lohse's effectiveness was questioned and teams shied away from him because of his high contract demands. The then 29 year old Lohse proved to be a casualty of the free agent market because he priced himself above what teams were willing to pay him. Lohse eventually signed with the Cardinals in the middle of March on a modest 1 year/$4 million dollar contract. Quite a far cry from the four/five year contract Lohse expected at the beginning of free agency.

Fast forward to the end of 2008. Lohse, coming off a stellar season where he won a career high 15 games, was awarded a 4 year/$41 million dollar contract from the Cardinals. Lohse was able to parlay his modest one year deal into a lucrative, long term deal that will make him one of the Cardinals highest paid players.

I mention Kyle Lohse's situation for a few different reasons.

The first, and most obvious reason is because of the large number of free agents still on the market right now. Between Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Juan Cruz, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson, Joel Beimel, Will Ohman, and Manny Ramirez; the free agent market remains littered with stars and quality players. There is no doubt that each of these guys entered the free agent market this off season dreaming of a lucrative long term contract.

But with only three days left until spring training, it now looks as though each one of these guys is going to be disappointed. As we all know by now, the market has been brutal to say the least and this year there are an awfully high amount of market casualties.

Each one of these guys by now has accepted the reality that the huge contract they envisioned when the off season began is now a remote pipe dream. It is now time to move onto plan B.

The one year contract.

Yes, I know, it's not a popular option. On many levels, it makes no sense. But to me, this is the only way for most of these guys to cash in...even if it's in the distant future.

Look at it this way, if you take a one year contract now and perform well, then there is no reason why you should not be able to cash in after the 2009 season. Sure the market will always fluctuate, but it can't be as bad as it was this year, right? Let's hope not.

The example of Kyle Lohse is a bold one. Lohse was guaranteed nothing beyond the one year deal he got with the Cardinals, but in part because of necessity, Lohse took the deal and was able to parlay it into something bigger. It was a risk, but at the same time, Lohse had no choice.

And that's how I see the free agent market right now. Some of these guys are stuck in a holding pattern waiting for any opportunities to come their way while others have continued to hold out, hoping to eventually capture a better contract. The choices are slim, and could get even slimmer by the day. Eventually, these guys will have no choices at all and will be out of work despite being productive players.

Taking anything more than a one year deal at this point would be foolish considering how bad the economy is (Manny excluded). Unless one of these guys can get a significantly better contract than what most of their peers have gotten, then they would be better off taking a one year deal and playing the field again after 2009.

Just because the market has squeezed these guys out doesn't mean that they cannot capitalize off a big year in the future. If Lohse can do it, so can you.

Another Suitor For Orlando Hudson?

For some reason, the Cardinals released second baseman Adam Kennedy even though he had another year on his contract. Kennedy has been a bust thus far for the Cardinals, but he was still viewed as the Cardinals second baseman entering the 2009 season. Releasing Kennedy this late in the off season is a pretty tacky move, unless Kennedy had a falling out with Manager Tony La Russa or management:

"Even after general manager John Mozeliak designated Kennedy as this year’s starter, La Russa found it difficult to embrace the arrangement."

So where can the Cardinals go from here to fill their second base void? Well, there are the obvious in house options that include: Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumaker, Joe Thurston, and more. Depending on how the Cardinals budget looks, this could be an obvious route for them to travel.

However, I'd like to see the Cardinals go bigger on this one. No one would have suspected that Orlando Hudson, the best free agent second baseman, would still be available in early February. Hudson has virtually no suitors right now and his market has really taken a nose dive because of the economy.

With their hole at second base, the Cardinals would be a great fit for Hudson. He would be a wonderful addition on the defensive side of the ball with his gold glove ability at second base and would be a pretty good number 2 hitter, right in front of Albert Pujols. There is no doubt in my mind that this move would make the Cardinals a much more competitive team in the NL Central.

The biggest question remains the Cardinals budget. If they can find room to in the payroll to make a run at Hudson, they will likely be able to sign Hudson to a team friendly one or two year deal. As I said before, there is no market for Hudson. The Cardinals would be in a very powerful position when negotiating with Hudson and would be in prime position to get a great player at cheap price.

Something in the one year/$7 million range or two years/$16 million would be perfectly reasonable for Hudson and the Cardinals at this point. Make it happen St Louis.

Hi, My Name is Alex, And I Used Steroids...

Yes he did.



Wow...good to see A-Rod come clean, but honestly, this admission is a year too late for me. Remember, it was only a year ago when A-Rod strongly denied that he ever used performance enhancing drugs.

And so it goes with A-Rod. Another day, another story. We now have the best player in the game, who is also a liar and a cheater. Not good.

It was interesting how A-Rod stated how the pressures of his massive contract were a reason why he used steroids. To me, it humanizes Rodriguez. So often, we think that professional athletes are immune to pressure, which is obviously not the case. Even A-Rod, one of the best players to ever play the game, he still felt the need to cheat because of pressure and expectation.

Hey, maybe A-Rod should have just sat back and listened to some Billy Joel...

"You have to learn to pace yourself
PRESSURE
You're just like everybody else
PRESSURE
You've only had to run so far, so good
But you will come to a place
Where the only thing you feel
Are loaded guns in your face
And you'll have to deal with
PRESSURE"

Off Season Winners: 2007 Free Agent Class

Chalk it up to timing. I can just imagine the agent's of mid level free agents in this year's market kicking themselves for getting their clients a contract that was just one year too long. This year's market has been that bad.

How else can we explain Francisco Rodriguez getting a 3 year/$36 million dollar contract with the Mets in 2008 while the inferior Francisco Cordero scored a 4 year/$46 million dollar contract with the frugal Cincinnati Reds? If Rodriguez was on the market in 2007, he probably would have gotten a 5 or 6 year deal.

Chalk it up to a terrible economy. Who is their right mind could have predicted that we would experience a global economic recession at the end of 2008? So many of us believed that baseball was immune to the economy, but this off season has been proof to the contrary.

How else can we explain how Oliver Perez, a 27 year old lefty with ace stuff, got a 3 year/$36 million dollar contract from the Mets while Carlos Silva, an overweight fourth starter, got a $4 year/$48 million dollar contract with the Mariners in 2007. If Perez was on the market in 2007, he would have gotten offers in the 4-5 year range easily.

Chalk it up to competition. The 2007 free agent class aside from A-Rod was one of the worst free agent classes in recent memory. You know your in trouble when Carlos Silva is the best pitcher on the market. The 2008 free agent class was littered with all stars and quality players, all of whom were looking to cash in on big seasons. Obviously, with the economic crisis, some players were going to be fresh outta luck when negotiating with teams.

How else can we explain how Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu remain unsigned while the far inferior Jose Guillen somehow obtained a 3 year/$36 million dollar contract from the cash strapped Royals in 2007? If Dunn or Abreu were on the market in 2007, each guy would have had no problem getting a deal in 4-6 year range.

Or maybe we should chalk it up to stupid luck. In the current market, teams who have been affected by the current economic crisis have elected to either not spend as much, spend wiser, or not increase payroll. But in the good ole' days of 2007, teams (not named the Yankees) were willing to increase payroll and go on a foolish and lavish spending spree.

How else can we explain Orlando Hudson having no suitors in 2009 while the inferior Luis Castillo received a 4 year/$26 million dollar contract from the Mets? The Castillo contract is the definition of foolish. How lucky is Castillo that he was a free agent in 2007 and not in 2008? He would have been lucky to get a two year deal in this market.

You have to feel somewhat bad for guys like Dunn, Abreu, and Hudson right now. I know it's difficult to feel bad for multi-millionaires when it comes to money, but these guys have done nothing wrong except become free agents at the wrong time. Instead of capitalising on their success, these guys will likely have to take a fraction of what they deserve.

Even for millionaires, that's not right.

Sounding Off: Alex Rodriguez and Steroids

*Sounding Off will be featured every Sunday morning as we address a hot topic from the past week. Feel free to weigh in and make your opinion heard!*

Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of the Alex Rodriguez steroid scandal is the endless amount of hours that America will now devote to baseball's steroid era. Seriously, when the hell is America going to be able to move on from all this steroid nonsense? Like me, I'm sure there are baseball fans all over the world who are absolutely sick of the steroid talk and want nothing more for all this nonsense to go away.

But thanks to Alex Rodriguez, this story will not be going away any time soon.

And that my friends, is an absolute shame. Even though the news is still littered with steroid chatter, mainly from the trials of Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, the talk of the steroid era had somewhat drifted from the consciousness of America. Yes people care about Bonds and Clemens, but at this point, those guys are old news and come with limited shock value.

Finally! We can focus on baseball!

Or not...Thanks to yesterday's news that Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids in 2003, I feel as though the steroid issue will be at the forefront of baseball for years to come. It's inevitable. Three of the best players of my generation have now been linked to steroids and presumably have cheated. The issues of hall of fame and legacy have yet to be addressed, and if Mark McGwire has taught us anything, it will get ugly.

Will these guys be remembered as heroes or steroid injected mutants? Hall of famers or cheaters? These are questions that will undoubtedly be debated for decades to come. We will not be having the spirited debates of decades past of who was the best player of the decade, instead we will be asking whether a certain player cheated or not.

How sad is that.

But the saddest part of this ordeal to me is that the shock of hearing who was on steroids has diminished completely, because so many of our heroes and legends have been caught already. After all the media coverage, McGwire, Palmiero, the Mitchell Report, Kirk Radomski, Brian McNamee, Roger Clemens, and Barry Bonds...it would impossible to be shocked that any player was accused of steroids.

How sad is that.

If Alex Rodriguez did indeed take steroids in 2003, then shame on him. He has let down millions of fans and that is something that he will have to live with forever. His legacy will be tarnished forever.

But what Alex Rodriguez did yesterday was worse than anything he could possibly do to his legacy. A-Rod took away the excitement of spring training for this fan because I know every time I turn on ESPN, the main issue will be steroids and not baseball. Baseball is all I want, but steroids is undoubtedly what I'd get.

How sad is that.

Say It Ain't So A-Rod!

If this news is true, then it is quite sad...say it ain't so!

Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids in 2003

"In 2003, when he won the American League home run title and the AL Most Valuable Player award as a shortstop for the Texas Rangers, Alex Rodriguez tested positive for two anabolic steroids, four sources have independently told Sports Illustrated.

Rodriguez's name appears on a list of 104 players who tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in Major League Baseball's '03 survey testing, SI's sources say. As part of a joint agreement with the MLB Players Association, the testing was conducted to determine if it was necessary to impose mandatory random drug testing across the major leagues in 2004." SI.com

Yikes. If there really is proof that Rodriguez used steroids, then this is a PR nightmare for MLB. Despite being one of the best home run hitters during the steroid era, there was never much doubt if Rodriguez used steroids. Most people believed that the probable home run king was one of those amazing talents, who was not juiced like Barry Bonds or Jason Giambi.

But it now appears as though that was not the case. If Rodiriguez truly is guilty of using 'roids, his legacy will be tainted forever. I don't care if he leads the Yankees to three world titles and hits 900 home runs, the damage has been done.

For me personally, this story pisses me off. Rodriguez was supposed to be one of the clean guys, one of the guys that as a fan, I thought I could trust. Yet again my trust might have been broken and it sickens me to think that this guy might be the new home run king.

The only person who ever talked about Rodriguez potentially using steroids was Jose Canseco is his book, Vindicated. Most people, like me, laughed at Canseco at the time and did not think much of his claim that A-Rod might have used steroids. Canseco alleged that he introduced Roriguez to a steroid dealer, but he had no concrete proof that Rodriguez used steroids. But today's news about Rodriguez will certainly serve as another notch on Canseco's belt (like Rafael Palmiero before him).

Well, if this report is true, then I will never doubt Jose Canseco ever again...except when he fights Danny Bonaduce....

Yikes.

We Now Present...Jorge Says No! Version 1.5

Well, after much canoodling and formatting, we are happy to present you with the new, hopefully improved, but not yet completed Jorge Says No!

Not too much has changed besides the color and the format, but hopefully ya'll will like the new and improved look.

We're calling this 1.5 for now since there are more layout changes still on the way. Hopefully in the next few weeks, the layout will look even better than it does right now. Stay tuned for that.

Any suggestions/comments about the new layout are greatly appreciated. And if anyone with photo shop capabilities knows how to make a banner, please do so! You will be handsomely rewarded with a shout out and my undying gratitude.

In addition, we are happy to report that you can now find us at jorgesaysno.com. Same content, same layout....all that has changed is that you no longer have to type in blogspot. Good times.

Once again, thanks for supporting Jorge Says No!

-jorgesaysno
jorgesaysno@gmail.com

Afternoon Reading

I recently started writing sports columns for The Eagle, American University's student run newspaper. Here is my latest piece, about the Washington Nationals.

Nats falling flat

I would love to hear any opinions of the piece as it is my first jump into the world of print journalism.

Enjoy!

(Note: If you're really feeling motivated, feel free to check out my first article about Manny Ramirez)

The Frustrating Tale of Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn is a strikeout hitter. Baseball people expect Dunn to strikeout at least 160 times a season to go along with the 40 or so home runs that he will hit on average. However, I don't think there were too many baseball people who could have predicted that Dunn would have struck out this badly on the free agent market.

With ten days to go until spring training, Dunn remains stuck in free agent purgatory. There have been very few suitors for Dunn's services despite his tremendous power hitting ability. Dunn initially priced himself out of the market by looking for a 4 year/$56 million dollar contract. Now, it looks like Dunn will be lucky to get half of that. And that's best case scenario.

Right now, Dunn has only received one offer (that we know of). That offer comes courtesy of the Washington Nationals, who lost a league worst 102 games last season. While terms of the offer are unknown, we do know that Dunn wants to play on a winner because he has never made the playoffs before in his big league career. And let's be honest here, the odds of the Nationals making the playoffs in 2009 are slim to none.

You can understand why Dunn has not jumped at the Nationals offer.

So Dunn has instead taken a patient approach, hoping and praying that another team becomes interested in his services and opens up the checkbook. However, no team has come close to biting thus far.

Dunn seems intent on waiting out the Manny Ramirez situation before he makes his decision about where to play in 2009. If Ramirez and the Dodgers cannot work out a deal, then Dunn might become their top priority. However, there is no guarantee that the Dodgers and Ramirez won't come to a deal and in addition, no guarantee that the Dodgers will even pursue Dunn if they miss out on Ramirez.

As for other teams, I would love to see the Angels enter the bidding, but GM Tony Reagins seems to be high on young players and reluctant to spend anymore dough. The Red Sox could be interested, but they currently have no where to put Dunn. Like the Red Sox, the Yankees have no where for Dunn to play. It's obvious that this market is barren.

That leads us to the million dollar question: should Dunn continue to be patient and hope that some team decides to make an effort to sign him after three months on the free agent market, or should Dunn take the deal with the Nationals and maybe try again for a big contract when the market recovers?

At this stage in the game, the Nationals are the only sure thing that Dunn has. If the Dodgers enter the bidding, it will certainly help Dunn. But the guess here is that the Dodgers and Manny will eventually come to terms, which will leave Dunn on the outside looking in.

Hypothetically speaking, I think the Nationals would actually be a pretty good fit for Dunn. Odds are the Nationals would have to overpay for Dunn because nobody wants to come to DC right now except for that Obama guy. The Nationals are not exactly a hot bed for free agents and the baseball culture in DC is still a work in progress. However, at the same time, if you stick Dunn in the middle of the Nationals lineup (in between Milledge and Zimmerman), all of a sudden that lineup does not look so bad. The big donkey could actually put up some huge numbers in that lineup and help those young players develop.

But there is no way to get around it, the Nationals are Dunn's last option. He does not want to go there...period. But at the same time, the Nationals may be Dunn's last option if he wants to get a big payday. Something in the 2 year/$26 million dollar range would not be unreasonable for either side and would allow Dunn to become a free agent again at the age of 32.

For a guy who hit 40+ home runs in each of the past 5 seasons, the limited amount of interest on the free agent market for Dunn's services has been astounding. Dunn and his agent better hope the Dodgers and Manny Ramirez suddenly hate each other, or that the Angels reverse course and make a play for him, or the Yankees try to conquer the baseball world by signing every major free agent known to man.

So it's Dodgers or bust for Dunn. If Manny re ups with Dodger Blue, it's not inconceivable for Dunn to have no other option besides the...cough...Nationals.

How amazing would that be!

(Note to baseball teams: Adam Dunn is a very good player. Sure he has his flaws, but there is no reason why this guy should not be signed this late into free agency. Dunn is the biggest bargain on the free agent market right now and will make any team very happy that they signed him. Mark my words.)

Time to Get Your Elbow Fixed, Ben Sheets

Back in August, I foolishly predicted that Ben Sheets would receive a massive 5 year/$85 million dollar contract.

Wow...I was wrong. Dead wrong.

But in my defense, a lot changed from August until now.

Until early September, Sheets was having a phenomenal season that was capped off by a starting nod in the 2008 All Star Game. I figured that at 30 years old, Sheets had finally turned a corner in his career and would be in line for a huge contract at the end of the season. Remember folks, in August it looked as though Sheets was going to be the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market this season.

Unfortunately for Sheets, the injury prone pitcher was hit by the injury bug once again and missed several starts in September with a mysterious arm ailment. However, all indications were that Sheets thought he was healthy and still wanted a multi-year contract on the free agent market.

And from there, it only got worse for Sheets. Suitors began to shy away from Sheets because of his injury history and concerning medical reports. Most teams were unwilling to take a chance on Sheets because his injury risk was too high and teams feared he would miss significant amounts of time.

Fast forward to Tuesday when reports surfaced that Sheets would need to undergo elbow surgery and would miss most of the 2009 season. Fears about Sheets medical history turned out to be true and as a result, Sheets probably won't sign with a team until July or August...at the earliest. It makes sense for Sheets to take care of his arm now, especially since the big time offers are not rolling in.

Sheets' injury woes are an absolute travesty to teams like the Mets and Rangers, both of whom would have welcomed a healthy Sheets into their rotation with open arms.

What a terrible twist of fate for Sheets. Here was a guy who was finally staying healthy and putting himself in line for a huge payday when his arm troubles resurfaced. Hopefully Sheets will be able to come back strong at some point in 2009 and put himself in line for a nice deal for 2010. If Sheets can get healthy by July or August, I can definitely see teams clamoring to take a chance on Sheets down the stretch. It could be an interesting side plot to the 2009 season, but at this point, all of us will have to sit back and wait.

Get well soon, Ben!

Would the Giants Compete With Manny Ramirez?

As I look up and down the Giants roster, I can't help but notice that the Giants actually have some talent. Gone are the days of signing aging, declining, and useless players to three year contracts that would cost the team a draft pick and hurt the team's performance on the field (I'm looking at you Michael Tucker, Dave Roberts, and Rich Aurilia). Instead, this off season, the Giants have signed veteran players to very manageable short term contracts that have made the Giants a dark horse contender in the NL West.

The Giants had several goals entering the off season: to find a reliable fourth starting pitcher, solidify the bullpen, identify a stopgap shortstop, and maybe find a power hitter to add some thunder to the middle of the lineup.

As of right now, the Giants have addressed all their needs except for one. General Manager Brain Sabean masterfully signed Randy Johnson to a one year deal that will pay major dividends for the Giants as long as he stays healthy. Sabean quickly scooped up Jeremy Affeldt and Bobby Howry early in free agency to build a competant bridge to closer Brian Wilson. And finally, Sabean signed Edgar Renteria to a manageable two year contract, even if he did overpay for his services.

Obviously, what is still missing from the Giants want list is a power hitter. And boy is a power hitter needed.

In 2008, the Giants had the worst offense in the National League. The Giants offense finished dead last in home runs and RBIs and second to last in runs scored, slugging percentage, and total bases. Those numbers speak for themselves: the Giants offense was abysmal. You know you're in trouble when Benjie Molina is your primary cleanup hitter...

Well, luckily for the Giants, there is still power hitters out there on the free agent market, namely Manny Ramirez. The former Red Sox great is looking for a contract north of $20 million per season and would like to sign for more than one or two seasons. The 37 year old outfielder is coming off a campaign in which he put up historic numbers for the Dodgers during a two month stretch and single handedly brought the buzz back to LA.

Ramirez would be a natural fit (at least in the batting order) for the Giants. He would bring a sense of legitimacy to a weak Giants lineup that has lost a lot of thunder since the steroid God known as Barry Bonds involuntarily left the game of baseball. If Manny plays hard for the entire season (BIG IF), then he should be a lock to hit 30-40 home runs and drive in close to 130 RBIs. Those statistics would transform the Giants lineup from futile to at least mediocre.

However, the question remains, if the Giants sign Ramirez, would they become a contender to win the NL West?

I say yes...but very caustiously.

Let's begin with the pitching. Every fifth day, the Giants will give the ball to Tim Lincecum, who in only two seasons has become one of the best pitchers in baseball. This guy is an absolute stud and a strikeout machine. He should win close to 20 games if the offense produces and the bullpen actually holds leads. And did I mention that Giants have another young stud named Matt Cain? Give this guy some run support and get out of the way...dude has great stuff. 15 game winner right there.

In addition, the rest of the Giants rotation is a fantastic mix of youth, ability, guile, and strikeouts. The trio of Randy Johnson, Noah Lowry/Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez has the ability to keep the Giants in lots of ball games and give manager Bruce Bochy lots of innings (and strikeouts from Sanchez and Johnson). Lowry and Johnson NEED to stay healthy, Zito needs to get his act together, and Sanchez needs to work through the natural growing pains of a young pitcher. If all goes well, watch out; the Giants rotation will be loaded.

And I like what the Giants have done with their bullpen. Sure, they do not have a dominant closer or even a dominant relief pitcher for that matter, but the trio of Bobby Howry, Jeremy Affeldt, and Brian Wilson should hold down the leads in lots of games for the Giants.

With the pitching staff in pretty good shape, the key factor for the Giants would obviously be the offense. With Ramirez in the lineup, the supporting cast would certainly see better pitches to hit and should have more opportunities to drive in runs. Odds are, the Giants would not rank in the bottom two in batting average, runs scored, or RBIs.

However, the fear is signing Ramirez is obvious. What if opposing teams decide not to pitch to him? If teams give Ramirez the Bonds treatment, sure other players will have the opportunity to step up with runner(s) on base, but what if the supporting cast cannot pick up the slack?

I'm sure no pitcher is going to sleep at night hoping and praying that he does not have to face Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn, or Benjie Molina in tomorrow's game. Nice players, but none of those guys are anywhere close to the stratosphere of Manny Ramirez and none qualify as protection for the great Ramirez in the Giants lineup.

Furthermore, what if Travis Ishikawa and Pablo Sandoval are not ready for the big show? Then teams will certainly pitch around Manny and his big stick will be mitigated even if it comes at the expense of a .475 OBP. The young guys need to stick if Ramirez is going to see any quality pitches to hit,

Obviously, there is a lot of risk involved with bringing Ramirez in. There is no guarantee that this move would pay off for the Giants, who are probably still another power hitter shy of really competing even with Ramirez. The supporting cast will determine how far this team would go with Ramirez and someone in that lineup is going to have to give opposing managers a reason to pitch to Ramirez...as far fetched as that sounds.

Even with all these questions, the Giants STILL should be able to compete in the NL West. The fact remains that the NL West is probably the weakest division in baseball and with the pitching the Giants have, you can never count them out for good...especially if they sign Ramirez. The other four teams in the division are all flawed and hardly invincible so it's not impossible to think that this team could actually compete just one season after winning only 72 games.

But finally, it will all come down to Ramirez and Giants management. If Manny becomes frustrated enough with the Dodgers, then sure I could see him bolting LA for the division/arch rival Giants. It remains to be seen what kind of deal that would require and just how much money the Giants are willing to spend on Ramirez.

If they want to seriously compete in 2009, management has to make a push for Ramirez.

What the Hell Were You Thinking? Julio Lugo Edition

Julio Lugo is quickly turning into a poor man's Juan Pierre...seriously. Just a year and a half after the Red Sox signed Lugo, he was relegated to the bench to make room for hot shot prospect Jed Lowrie. Lugo is a classic example of a good player, who was able to maximize his earning potential on the free agent market. However, just two years later, here we are pondering, what the hell were you thinking, Boston?

Why Sign Lugo: After trading Nomar Garciaparra in 2004, the Red Sox were not able to find a permanent replacement for the former face of the franchise. Edgar Renteria was a disaster. Alex Gonzalez was only a stopgap. The Red Sox could do better...and they knew it.

So as a result, the Red Sox went after Lugo...hard. They believed that he would be a productive lead off hitter, who could steal bases, hit for a solid average, and play pretty good defense. The Red Sox did not need Lugo to be a star, but they thought he would be a great complimentary piece.

What Went Wrong: To be quite frank, Lugo declined...quickly. Lugo, who was a solid .270-.290 hitter with the Devil Rays, went into a deep funk with the Sox in 2007 and finished the season only hitting .237 and seemed allergic to taking walks. Obviously, 2007 was a disaster for Lugo on the field.

And it did not get much better in 2008. Lugo battled with injuries throughout the season and he seemed to be a shell of his former self. His defense took a major turn for the worse as Lugo committed a whopping 16 errors in only 81 games. Not even Edgar Renteria was that bad. And to make matters worse, Lugo's power evaporated as he only hit 1 home run and 13 doubles. It's not surprising that Lugo lost his starting job to Jed Lowrie even when Lugo returned from injury.

Future Implications: The future implications of this signing will not be felt until this spring. Lugo intends to compete with Lowrie to be the starting shortstop and if he shows some skills, then he could be of some use to the Red Sox. I doubt he will win the starting job, but the Red Sox can afford to have a $9 million dollar player on the bench as insurance. At worst, the Red Sox might actually be able to find a suitor for Lugo, even if they have to pick up most of the tab.

At the same time, if Lugo proves that he truly is on the decline, then the Red Sox will be stuck with a useless, overpaid player for the next two seasons.

The Red Sox will be fine with or without Lugo. They have enough organizational depth, quality talent, and resources to absorb a disappointment like Lugo.

Lesson Learned: Look out for the warning signs. Lugo, who was 31 when the Red Sox signed him, had a terrible second half after being traded to the Dodgers in 2006. Lugo did not hit for any power, struggled to get on base, and suddenly could not hit for average. Could it be possible that Lugo's terrible second half hinted at his decline with the Red Sox? Maybe...but it's always risky paying a guy for one good half.

In addition, the Red Sox became desperate to find a long term answer at shortstop and as result they overpaid for Lugo. Desperation is never a good word when it comes to free agents.

Off Season Winners: Sign Early!

*Over the next few days, Jorge Says No! will highlight some of the major winners from the off season. Even in this terrible economy, there were some lucky ones who did well! We'll highlight how and why each player wound up with a favorable deal.*

With spring training only two weeks away, there are still a number of quality free agents out there on the market. So many players came into this off season with high hopes of a huge deal, only to be let down by the deflating economy and terrible market. As it turns out, those players who signed early wound up getting the best contracts as teams gradually decided not to spend money.

WINNERS!

-Damaso Marte: With a large group of left handed relief pitchers on the free agent market this season, Marte decided to quickly re-up with the Yankees. Even though he put up pedestrian numbers with the Yankees, Marte still received a 3 year/$12 million dollar contract that seemed to be in line with what quality relief pitchers should receive.

However, this market has proven to be a different animal all together. Left handed specialists are struggling to garner up interest as Dennys Reyes, Joe Beimel and Will Ohman remain unsigned. In years past, these guys would have been locks to receive long term deals, but now it appears likely that both guys might have to settle for one year deals.

Statistically, there is no difference between Marte, Ohman, and Beimel. Hell, Marte might even be the worst out of the three. However, because Marte immediately re-signed with the Yankees, he was able to get the big contract while the other guys sit back and wait for suitors.

-Edgar Renteria: When the Tigers acquired Renteria after the 2007 season, they expected Renteria to deliver huge numbers and provide solid defense at shortstop. Instead, the Tigers were stuck with an under performing defensive liability, who failed to live up to expectations.

Despite this, the Giants still decided to sign Renteria, who was not offered arbitration, to a 2 year worth $18.5 million bucks. That contract, which seems normal in most off seasons, now looks excessive as Orland Cabrera, who put up better numbers than Renteria in 2008, remains unsigned. Blame it on Cabrera's type A status, which obligates a team who signs him to give up their first round pick.

Either way, it's ridiculous that Cabrera is left on the sidelines while Renteria gets the big contract. The compensation rules need to be changed.

-Ryan Dempster: I have written about Dempster and the Cubs before: I think the Cubs overpaid for Dempster.

They were eager to strike a deal with Dempster without letting the market dictate his price like the Mets did with Oliver Perez and like the Braves did with Derek Lowe. As a result, both Perez and Lowe signed contracts that were much lower than what they originally anticipated at the beginning of the off season.

The reality of the situation is that I if the Cubs had simply waited longer for the market to develop, I bet they could have gotten a better deal than the 4 year/$52 million dollar contract they ultimately gave Dempster.

But you gotta give Dempster and his agent credit: they were able to maximize his earning potential in a terrible market. How many other players (that are not Yankees) can say that!

So what does this list show us about this off season?
-Sign early, market was good (or at least not as bad...)
-More likely to get a better contract if you quickly resign with a team (interesting...)
-Teams are willing to pay more when they don't have to give up draft picks

UPDATE (6:22 PM): Looks like our friends over at the Orange County Register Angels blog have picked up the article and written a response to it using PECOTA and statistical analysis. Even if they disagree with me, this is some interesting stuff. Definitely worth a read.

Just Move On, Dodgers

Well, that was quick.

Less than 24 hours after receiving a one year/$25 million dollar offer from the Dodgers, Manny Ramirez and agent Scott Boras have turned down the Dodgers proposal.

This boggles my mind. Ramirez and Boras must truly believe that they will eventually have a better offer out there because it takes balls to turn down $25 million. Well, either balls or flat out stupidity. Take your pick.

I'm just not seeing a better contract coming Ramirez's way at this point. I thought the Dodgers offer was more than fair, but in the twisted and strange world of Scott Boras and Manny Ramirez, this contract was not enough.

So where should the Dodgers go from here? I think they have put their two best offers on the table for Ramirez and have wisely not gone above 2 years. The fact remains that Ramirez STILL wants much more than what the Dodgers are willing to give him and he does not seem willing to make a compromise. I'm not sure how much longer the Dodgers are willing to be hamstrung by Ramirez and Boras, but I would be awfully eager to move on right now if I was the Dodgers.

Luckily for them, there free agent market still plays very much in their favor. In most years, $25 million would not go nearly as far, but in this rough economy, the Dodgers clearly have the upper hand. There are so few teams who are looking to spend money right now, but a surplus of quality free agents, which means the Dodgers could get bargains on the best remaining free agents if they elect not to sign Ramirez.

Adam Dunn is still available. Bobby Abreu too. And don't forget about Orlando Hudson, who has had virtually no buzz this off season.

And if the Dodgers want to address the pitching side, they can make a play for Ben Sheets or Randy Wolf, depending on who they like/trust more.

It's not impossible to think that two or three of those free agents could be in Dodger Blue should the team elect to pass on Ramirez and his $20-$25 million per year demand.

If I'm Ned Colletti, I would look to add Dunn, Hudson, and Sheets; which would give the Dodgers a great group of talent and drastically improve their chances of winning the NL West. Dunn should be able to replicate Ramirez's power numbers and OBP, while Hudson would provide stability at second base and great clubhouse leader to boot. The wild card in this would of course be Sheets, who if healthy, would turn the Dodgers into a pennant contender, but there is of course no guarantee of that. I would give Sheets a one year deal packed with incentives and see if he takes it.

You can definitely make the case that the Dodgers would be building a strong team by adding three valuable pieces as opposed to just Ramirez. No free agent would bring the kind of buzz to LA that Ramirez could, but the product on the field might be better if the Dodgers move on.

2009 Rays Bullpen: A Must Watch

While it might be difficult to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox on a $50-$60 million dollar payroll, the Rays continue to establish themselves as strong contenders in the AL East. While the Rays will never be able to make the splashy signings like the Yanks or Sox, the Rays have made some quiet yet productive signings that will make this team a contender to win it all in 2009.

Even though the Rays had a dynamite bullpen in 2008, GM Andrew Friedman has taken aggressive measures in upgrading the bullpen with more quality arms.

Friedman's first target was RHP Joe Nelson, who was coming off a career year with the Marlins in 2008. Even though Nelson put up a 2.00 ERA, the Marlins did not offer Nelson a contract for 2009 fearing that he would receive too much of a raise. Because of the Marlins cheap ways, the Rays were able to swoop in and sign Nelson to a very club friendly one year deal worth just over $1 million.

Next, Friedman needed to find a left handed specialist to replace the departed Trever Miller. Friedman targeted LHP submariner Brian Shouse, who delivered a 2.81 ERA in 2008 and held left handed hitters to an .180 BAA. The Rays signed the 40 year old Shouse to either a one year deal with an option or a two year deal (depending on who you read).

These two moves make the Rays bullpen look fantastic on paper. Just look at the ridiculous amount of options manager Joe Maddon has late in games:

Percival (if healthy)
Wheeler
Balfour
Howell
Bradford
Shouse
Nelson
Hammel
Cormier

Now, there are two reasons why this bullpen will be the bullpen to watch in 2009.

1. Two submarines
-If you haven't noticed, the Rays now have two of the best submarine specialists that baseball has to offer. In Chad Bradford and Brian Shouse, the Rays have two of the most entertaining players in baseball to watch. Trust me, I spent a year marveling in Chad Bradford wondering how in right hand did not hit the mound and how any right handed hitter could make contact off of him.

And Rays fans get both Bradford and Shouse...I'm jealous.

By my count, there are less than twenty submarine pitchers in baseball right now, and amazingly, the Rays have two of the best in their bullpen. This will be highly entertaining for Rays fans, and absolutely awful for opposing hitters. (Shouse destroys left handed hitters, while Bradford is still very, very good against right handed hitters)

The thought of watching Joe Maddon bring in Shouse to face Johnny Damon and then bringing in Bradford to face Derek Jeter is exhilarating. Honestly, the match ups Joe Maddon will have at his disposal will be endless and make the Rays a much deeper team.

2. Who the Closer?
-If he is healthy, I can say with some level of certainty that Troy Percival will be their closer in 2009. However, there is no guarantee that Percival will be able to stay healthy. He was on the DL three times in 2008 and was unable to pitch in the playoffs because of his injuries.

And plus, even if Percival is healthy, there is no guarantee that he will be effective. While he was quite good in the first half (3.54 ERA), his second half was awful as he dealt with injuries and inconsistency (6.63 ERA).

I know that personally, I would love to see a Bradford/Shouse duo close out games for the Rays in '09. But the odds of that happening are unfortunately long...so Dan Wheeler or Grant Balfour will probably have to do.

So I look at this bullpen and I can't help but ponder what it would like with a dominant closer to shut the door in the ninth. They have so many good middle relief pitchers, but right now, the ninth inning looks like a weakness for the Rays. If the Rays can find a quality closer, then I really think that this bullpen can propel the Rays a top the AL East and into title contention.

The bullpen could be...that good.

This bullpen should be the biggest strength the Rays have in 2009. Their rotation will be solid, their offense will be very good, but the bullpen will determine how far this team goes in the AL East. The Rays have a ridiculous amount of depth and quality in the bullpen and I'm confident (even without a definite closer yet) that the Rays will be serious competitors in the AL East.

Just Say Yes, Manny!

Are we finally going to see some movement on the Manny market?

Well, today the Dodgers offered Ramirez a 1 year/$25 million dollar contract. Earlier in the off season, the Dodgers offered Ramirez a 2 year/$45 million dollar contract, but Ramirez has yet to accept the deal because he wants a lucrative long term deal. It remains to be seen if Ramirez will accept the contract, but I think Manny needs to accept this contract for various reasons.

1. The market
-To be quite frank with you, the market for Manny sucks. As I wrote earlier, the market for Manny has not developed and there appears to be no other serious suitor outside of the Dodgers. I'm not sure how much longer Manny wants to wait for the Mets or Giants to get their act together, but if they haven't by now, then they probably won't in a week or so.

If the Dodgers suddenly get sick of waiting and pull out of the Ramirez sweepstakes, that would further damage the Manny market and limit where he could wind up. Not likely to happen I know, but it's something to consider especially with Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu still unsigned.

Plus, the Yankees are not going to be involved, which means that Manny is very unlikely to receive a large, ludicrous contract.

2. 2010
-One of the best perks of this deal from Ramirez's perspective is that he would be a free agent again next season. Who knows? At this time next year, the market might rebound (let's hope!) and a number of teams might develop interest in Ramirez. There is always the chance that Ramirez can get another big contract, even at age 37.

3. The Red Sox
-Even though Ramirez has no chance of returning to Boston, his Boston ties will probably play some role in whether he accepts this proposal or not. Remember, Manny was adamant that the Sox not pick up his two options after this season, which would have guaranteed him another $40 million over two years.

Even though Ramirez would not come close to the $40 million, he could save face knowing that he will make more per year in 2009 with the Dodgers than he would have with the Red Sox. Not to mention that Ramirez would become one of the highest paid players in baseball.
Petty I know, but ya never know with Manny.

4. Image
-The great thing about LA is that there are marketing opportunities galore. Manny re energized the Dodgers in 2008 and if he returns to the Dodgers, he would probably make millions more on endorsements alone. This town loves Ramirez and would be a buzz if Manny were to return in 2009. I'd imagine that Manny's face would be all over the town, which I'm sure is very very appealing to Manny and his brand.

For the Dodgers, this deal makes sense a couple different levels. Even though the thought of $25 million bucks is absurd in this economy, signing Ramirez is a must for the team if they are serious about competing in 2009. And I like the idea of a one year deal because it mitigates the amount of risk the team would take on and should provide ample motivation for Ramirez to put up HUGE numbers with the Dodgers in 2009.

I am still a bit skeptical about having Manny playing left field 150 times for the Dodgers in 2009, but I guess that's the price they'd pay to have one of the game's best hitters.

On second thought, why are the Dodgers offering up $25 million? Couldn't they have gone lower from their original 2 year/$45 million dollar offer? Are they concerned about another team entering the bidding? As I see it, the Dodgers seem to be the only team that is serious about making a push for Ramirez...

And in all seriousness Manny, just get this thing over with...I'm not sure how many more Manny marches I can take...quite the tease.