Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Free Agent Adjustments: Doug Davis

(For the last few weeks, I've been profiling some of the best free agents on the market this winter. At the end of each piece, I made a prediction regarding the type of contract the player could be in line to see. Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen thier value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look at the impending free agency of Doug Davis )

Initial Prediction: (3 years/$27 million)

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New Prediction: (3 years/$21 million)

What Changed: Randy Wolf. Yes after evaluating the free agency of Randy Wolf, I felt that there was no way in hell Davis was going to come close to 3 years/$27 million. That's the kind of contract that I'd expect Wolf to get in this market. Davis is a very good pitcher, and might wind up being a better value than Wolf over time, but Randy Wolf's 2009 season has catapulted him into a different level contractually than Davis. Davis will still do nicely on the free agent market, but I think my initial estimate overshot his true value a bit.


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