Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Where's Derek Lowe?

I'd like to have a word or two with Ted Keith. Not only did he put Ryan Dempster on the list of worst free agent contracts, but more surprisingly, he did not put Derek Lowe on his list.

How is this possible? Just look at the stats:

-Lowe is now 36 years old
-signed a 4 year/$60 million contract with the Braves last offseason
-still has another 3 years/$45 million left on the deal
-his ERA went up more than a full point this year (3.24 to 4.55)
-his WHIP is way up from 2008 (1.13 to 1.49)
-H/9 is way up this year (8.3 to 10.6)
-strikeouts are way down (99 this season)
-K/BB is way down (1.77)
-hitters are hitting .295 against him this season
-His % of ground balls is at its lowest point in over seven years (56.5%)

So as you can see, it's not hard to look at Lowe's stats and say that the 2009 season has been a major disappointment for him. But for some reason, Keith still keeps him off the list? Was it a mistake? Simply an oversight?

Who knows.

The only way I can see someone rationalizing this is by saying, "Derek Lowe has 15 wins this season so there's no way you can say that Lowe was one of the worst free agent contracts."

But as we can see from the stats, Derek Lowe's season cannot simply be defined by wins and losses. Across the board, Lowe's performance has been down this season. The wins argument is hogwash.


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P. W. Hjort said...

Well, Derek Lowe has largely been worth his contract going on the assumption that clubs pay $4.5 million per WAR. But, so has Ryan Dempster. So if being exactly worth your salary is the qualifier to get on that list, Derek Lowe belongs.

Jorge Says No! said...

P.W: That's my point, exactly. If Keith is going to say that Dempster belongs on the list, then how can leave Lowe out of the mix?

P. W. Hjort said...

Doesn't make much sense. Or any.