Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Hypothetically Speaking: Would You Trade Vernon Wells for Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley?

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that the Cubs have decided that they cannot take another year of Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano. They're desperate to get out from under both of these contracts and rid themselves of the headcase that is Milton Bradley. And for hypothetical purposes, let's assume that Soriano wants to get out of Chicago and is willing to waive his full no trade clause.

And luckily for the Cubs, it looks like the Cubs might have found a taker for Soriano and Bradley. The Toronto Blue Jays are desperate to get rid of Vernon Wells and the more than $95 million owed to him through 2014. And for hypothetical purposes, let's assume that Wells is itching to get out of Toronto and revive his sturggling career elsewhere.

So the deal is on the table: Vernon Wells for Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley?

Would you do it? Let's lay out the pros and cons for each side:

Why the Cubs would do it

-Get out from the $90 million owed to Soriano through 2014
-Get out from the $21 million owed to Bradley through 2011
-Free up lots of salary space for 2010 (Wells only makes $12.5 million in 2010)

Why the Blue Jays would do it

-Free themselves from the $86 million owed to Wells from 2011-2014
-acquire two players, who have much more potential than Vernon Wells at this point
-Bradley and Soriano would both benefit from playing in the American League (DH!)
-save money in the long run: Bradley's contract runs out after 2011 and Soriano is owed $18 million in each of the next 5 seasons.

Why the Cubs wouldn't do it

-Who in their right mind would actually want to acquire Vernon Wells' horrible contract?
-Even though this deal might make the Cubs more active in free agency in the short term, how badly would this deal prevent them from signing free agents in the future?
-Soriano is coming off one bad year and should be productive in the future (hopefully)
-Even though Bradley is a moron, he's still more productive and affordable than Wells

Why the Blue Jays wouldn't do it

-Was Soriano's 2009 season simply a fluke? Or is he on the decline?
-Milton Bradley is crazy.
-They'd take on too much salary up front. This trade would add about $15 million to their payroll in 2010 and $7 million to their payroll in 2011.

So I'll ask again: would you make this deal? Does this make sense...?



Stealing 1st said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Stealing 1st said...

Alfonso Soriano is my favorite player actually so this tends to be quite easy for me. The way you put the deal id see no problem for the Cubs. Soriano has hit 10 HR in 40 games @ rogers centre so that too is a plus, but Toronto is a team on the decline (which with Halladay gone within the next year the decline shall be steep) and i think they are more ready for some serious rebuilding than bringing on larger than life contracts.

Jorge Says No! said...

The only question I have is this: does acquiring bradley and soriano qualify as serious rebuilding? I don't think the jays are in position for a full rebuilding process, but getting rid of wells' contract would be a huge plus

Chris said...

As a Jays fan, I would love this trade. Soriano's still got good seasons in him, and barring injuries, Bradley is an amazing player worth taking a chance on even with his merely above average season this year. I think it's a great trade for two teams that need a roster shakeup.

SpastikMooss said...

This is a tricky one. The terrible fielders kind of cancel each other out, and change of scenery is nice. I guess I could see the Cubs doing this deal if they were really fed up with Soriano. But the Jays taking on two bloated contacts would probably doom them in the AL East for quite a few years. Bradley maybe, since he comes off the books in 2011. But Soriano...I don't think so.

So..I'd do it as a Cubs GM...but not as the Jays Riccardi.

Jorge Says No! said...

I'm sort of on the opposite end here...I think JP HAS TO DO this trade simply to get Wells' contract off the books for the future. That contract is so backloaded that it can really kill the Jays from '11-'14

chrisH said...

from the cubs standpoint pull the trigger, soriano is only owed $4million or so more over the next 5 years than wells.
hypothetically would you trade the two aarons, heilman and miles, for a pair of batting gloves?

crash said...

is someone saying soriano and wells are a wash defensively?? or did they mean bradley and vw?
don't believe anyone who tells you vernon sucks in the outfield. this is only said by numbers geeks who haven't actually watched a blue jays game.
he's not gold glove/elite like he was, but he's still major league in the field

Jorge Says No! said...

chrisH: I've been down that road with Heilman before as a Met fan and lemme tell you, I would want more than a pair of batting gloves for both Aarons.

Jorge Says No! said...

crash: I've seen a bunch of Jays games this season and I've not been impressed with Vernon Wells defense. At this point, I don't think he has the range of a MLB center fielder. I know you can tell a lot just by watching a game, but I'm VERY doubtful that you can even say that Wells is a average defensive player at this point.

Tom Dakers said...

Vernon gets a 8.5 million bonus next year too. The Jays would love to get out of his contract that owes him 128 mil over the next 5 years.

But this would add them back 111 million for 2 LF/DH types. The Jays have lots of those already and no CFers and none that are close to ready in the minors. So they would have to sign a free agent. And that would cost more than they are saving in this deal. So no I don't think it would happen.

Drew - LtB said...

The Jays do this only if the Cubs eat ALL of Bradley's salary.

The Cubs would only do this if they could get Vernon to opt out after 2011. Which he won't.