Tuesday, November 10, 2009

The Market for Roy Halladay

The market for Roy Halladay is bound to heat up over the next few weeks. Yes, it finally looks as though the Jays have made the decision to at least explore the idea of trading their all world pitcher. What teams would be interested in the perennial all-star? Everybody???:
“Everybody would want him,” said one Blue Jays insider. “It’s would they have the prospects to make us better and would they give them up?”

There is also one more item for prospective suitors to consider: Would Halladay want to go to there?

The 32-year-old will earn $15.75 million US this season in the final year of a contract that also includes a no-trade clause, meaning Halladay can veto any deal not to his liking."
Ok, so not everybody would be looking to acquire Roy Halladay. But given his ability, you can understand why everybody would want Halladay. But what teams actually have a realistic chance at acquiring Roy Halladay?

First off, the team has to fit these three criteria:

1. Have top prospects to deal
2. Have a legitimate chance to compete in 2010 to entice Halladay to waive his no trade clause
3. Have the money to afford Roy Halladay in 2010 (and hopefully beyond)

With that in mind, let's take a look at what teams should (and probably will) be interested in the Blue Jays ace and explore what teams meet the three criteria:

Phillies:

1. Do they have top prospects to deal?

-Yes. The Phillies came close to acquiring Halladay at the trading deadline last July, but ultimately opted for Cliff Lee instead. The Phillies have a number of prospects and pieces that would interest the Blue Jays (Happ, Brown, Drabek, etc), but it remains to be seen if the Phillies are any more willing to part with those guys now than they were in July.

2. Do they have a legitimate chance to compete in 2010?

-Yes, the Phillies won the World Series in 2008 and made the World Series in 2009. They are one of the best teams in the NL and adding Halladay would only make the Phillies stronger.

3. Do they have the money to afford Roy Halladay in 2010?

-It remains to be seen how much money the Phillies will be able to spend this offseason given that they already have $109 million committed to 2010 player salaries. And finally, would the Phillies be willing to acquire Halladay even though both he and Cliff Lee will be free agents after the season?

Then again, a rotation featuring Halladay, Lee, and Hamels would be pretty incredible and make the Phillies the heavy, heavy favorites to win the NL East.

Red Sox:


1. Do they have top prospects to deal?

-The Red Sox have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, but it remains to be seen what prospects GM Theo Epstein would be willing to part with to acquire a possible one year rental.

2. Do they have a legitimate chance to compete in 2010?

-Absolutely. The Red Sox made the playoffs in 2009 and have been one of baseball's model franchises since winning the World Series in 2004. The Sox starting rotation is not necessarily a weak point right now, but if they acquire Halladay, their rotation will instantly become one of the best (if not the best) in baseball.

3. Do they have the money to afford Roy Halladay in 2010?

The Red Sox will have roughly $20-$30 million to play with this winter, which means that acquiring Roy Halladay is pretty realistic economically for the Sox. However, if the Sox acquire Halladay, they will be faced with the daunting task of trying to resign both Halladay and Josh Beckett at year's end.

It comes down to this: what is one year of Roy Halladay worth to the Red Sox?

Angels:

1. Do they have top prospects to deal?

-The Angels have a number of interesting pieces to move, but I'm not sure that the Angels have enough high end talent to entice the Blue Jays to move Halladay. The Angels have talented prospects like Jordan Walden and Hank Conger, but I'm not sure that those guys rank as highly as Drabek, Buchholz, or Brown.

2. Do they have a legitimate chance to compete in 2010?

-Yes. The Angels are by far the best team in the AL West and even though the team will be undergoing some major changes this winter, the Angels should be able to compete in 2010, especially if Roy Halladay comes on board.

3. Do they have the money to afford Roy Halladay in 2010?

-The Angels have plenty of money coming off the books this winter, which makes them a stronger possibility for Halladay if they decide to go that route.

Dodgers:

1. Do they have top prospects to deal?

-The Dodgers have a number of valuable pieces and young prospects to offer the Blue Jays, but I'd be interested to see if the Dodgers would be willing to move Chad Billingsley or Andre Ethier to acquire Halladay.

2. Do they have a legitimate chance to compete in 2010?

-Yes. Halladay is exactly the kind of front line pitcher the Dodgers need and would make the Dodgers the favorites in the NL.

3. Do they have the money to afford Roy
Halladay in 2010?

-You have to wonder how much money the Dodgers would be willing to take on with all of this McCourt divorce business going down. $15 million is a lot of money especially with all the arbitration cases the Dodgers have this offseason. No one is really sure how much the Dodgers can spend at this point.

And finally, no matter what you read, never count out the Yankees in the Halladay sweepstakes. Never ever, count out the Yankees.

Do you think Roy Halladay will be traded? If so, where?

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3 comments:

Anonymous said...

good stuff here on this blog. good stuff. id have to agree those 4 teams and the yankees are the most likely to get halladay. the dodgers certainly need a pitcher like halladay to get their team over the hump. i think its going to come down to the phillies or angels though. red sox would not surprise me either. halladay could very likely be the last piece of the puzzle for one of those teams to dethrone the yankees next season.

Jorge Says No! said...

Anon: Do you think the Yankees will make a play for Halladay?

Ian H. said...

I can't see Halladay wearing pinstripes, but stranger things have happened (Johnny Damon selling his soul to the evil empire).

My best guesses are the Angels and Dodgers - they are two great teams that need that starting ace to push them over the hump to get them into the World Series. Roy Halladay will definitely do that - the question is, what would they offer in return?

The Dodgers/Angels would probably have to deal more major league talent than say the Red Sox.