Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Will the Athletics Compete With Jason Giambi?

Yesterday, multiple sources reported that the Athletics were close to signing Jason Giambi to a 1 year deal to hit behind Matt Holliday. Giambi is expected to DH for the Athletics, who are coming off a terrible season in which they finished 11 games under .500.

So will the Athletics be competative in 2009? Absolutely.
While the Athletics struggled to muster up any offense in 2008, their pitching was actually quite good finishing fifth in team ERA (4.01). The Athletics are absolutely loaded with talented, young arms who ooze of potential and ability. If those young arms can deliver continue to progress and deliver a strong season in 2010, then the Athletics could be in a good position to compete.

However, the Athletics success in 2009 in directly related to their offense. The acquisition of Matt Holliday certainly made the Athletics offense deeper and more potent, but the acquisition of Giambi will determine how much the Athletics offense improves.

If Giambi is able to perform at his 2008 level (32 HR 96 RBI, .372 OBP), then teams will not have the ability to pitch around Matt Holliday. If Holliday gets pitches to hit, this lineup could become explosive and dangerous. The Athletics lineup with Giambi, Holliday, and Cust should have a very high OBP and hit lots of home runs.

However, if Giambi reverts back to his old 2007 form (14 HR 40 RBI, .356 OBP), then the Athletics lineup could go from potent to average very quickly.

But the point is this, there is no reason why the Athletics should not compete for a division crown in the AL West. The Mariners and Rangers still suck and the once powerful Angels now appear to be somewhat vulnerable. The Angels have lost Mark Teixeira and Garret Anderson to free agency and do not have a lineup comparable to the top teams in the American League.

Sure the Angels still have a great pitching staff, but it's hard to win games when you only put up two or three runs per game. The Angels offense will not be terrible, but I fear that unless they add another bat, they will be wildly inconsistent.

So mark this one down as another great signing by Billy Beane. This low risk signing will help the Athletics compete in 2009 and will not hinder their future plans at all.

Hopefully Giambi will avoid the 'roids this time around in Oakland.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Where to Now, Bobby Abreu

Talk about running out of options.

With Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell signing with the Rays and Cubs respectively, one has to wonder where Abreu will wind up. Like many free agents, the market for Abreu has not developed and teams appear to be shying away from his high price tag.

Remember, it was just two months ago that Yankees GM Brian Cashman decided not to offer Abreu salary arbitration, which probably would have guaranteed Abreu a $16 million dollar salary in 2009. Now Abreu will be lucky to get $10 million.

So what's next for Abreu? With so few teams looking for corner outfielders and even fewer looking to spend money, Abreu could have a tough time finding a suitor, at his price.

Here are some of Abreu's potential destinations (that make sense):

Angels: The Angels are in dire need of another impact bat to hit in front of Vladimir Guerrero and Abreu would be a good fit. However, GM Tony Reagins has previously stated that the Angels will give their younger players a chance to fill the voids left by Garret Anderson and Mark Teixeira. If Reagins comes to his senses, the Angels could become serious competitors in the American League.

Braves: Right now, the Braves have no defined center fielder or left fielder. Unless they want to go with a combination of Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, and Matt Diaz; it might suit them well to give Abreu a look. He would give them some much needed depth to their lineup and a professional hitter to go along with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann. I'm not certain how the Braves would align their outfield, but how Abreu adjust to center or left has to be a concern.

Dodgers: If the Dodgers ultimately part ways with Manny Ramirez, Abreu could become an attractive option here. Abreu would give the Dodgers a professional hitter to mesh along with their abundance of young hitters. I think the Dodgers would prefer Adam Dunn to Bobby Abreu because of the light tower power that Dunn brings, but Abreu could become a lower cost option.

Mets: If by some long shot the Mets miss out on both Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez, then I could possibly see them making a run at Abreu...if his price comes down significantly. However, the Mets are very high on Daniel Murphy and the Mets need to remain focused on pitching. Abreu would be a luxury for the Mets, not a necessity.

Nationals: If the Nationals are serious about letting Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes compete for the center field spot, then they might actually have room for Abreu. And what a good fit he would be. Abreu would provide some stability and protection for Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson, if he's healthy. If Abreu wants a long term deal for 2010, his best bet might be taking a one year deal with the Nationals and putting up big numbers.

As you can see, it's slim pickings for Abreu. He'll find someplace to play, but I highly doubt that Abreu will come anywhere close to the 3 years/$48 million that he was looking for when free agency began. His price tag should come way down, in the one year range so he could potentially cash in as a free agent in 2010.

It's amazing to me that a guy who hit .296 with 20 HR and 100 RBI last season is struggling so mightily to find a job. Hell, this isn't a washed up Ken Griffey Jr. we're talking about here! But with the economy in such bad shape, someone had to pay the price. And right now, Bobby Abreu is paying a heavy price.

Can Carl Pavano Become Relevant Again?

Back in 2004, the New York Yankees signed Carl Pavano to a 4 year/$40 million dollar contract. The Yankees, who outbid the rival Boston Red Sox for Pavano's services, believed that they had just signed a budding star and potential ace.

Fast forward to 2009 and it is safe to say that Carl Pavano did not exactly work out with the Yankees. Between shoulder injuries, a "buttocks injury", a car crash, and Tommy John Surgery, Pavano's injury with the Yankees can be described as a nightmare. In four years, Carl Pavano went from being the most coveted free agent to laughingstock.

Now comes the interesting part: can Pavano become relevant again and revive his fading career? Maybe.

For starters, signing with the Indians is a good move for Pavano. He will have the opportunity to win a spot in the rotation immediately and be given a chance to perform. The Indians on paper look pretty strong this season, which could help Pavano even more.

And most importantly, Cleveland is not New York. Pavano needed to go someplace where the pressure and expectations were not as outrageous as in New York and Cleveland is a perfect place.

Pavano has been labeled as injury prone throughout his career, but only with the Yankees was his work ethic put into question. If Pavano can put it together in 2009 and have a nice season with the Indians, Pavano could actually make himself a good amount of money in 2010, as funny as it sounds. Pavano is only 33 years old, but how much he has left in his arm and body is anyone's question.

If Carl Pavano makes a Flavor Flave esque comeback and all of a sudden rockets into super stardom, I will be absolutely amazed. But the idea that Pavano cannot make a Bret Michaels esque comeback-a shell of his former self, but still somewhat good- should not be ruled out.

And yes I do watch too much VH1.

Just Move On, Yankees

The New York Times has reported that Andy Pettitte has rejected the Yankees 1 year/$10 million offer. Apparently $10 million is not enough for Pettitte, who is looking for a contract closer to the $16 million he earned in 2008.

Fine. If Pettitte really believes that he is worth $13-$14 million in this market, let him and move on. If the Yankees are willing to spend $10-$15 million on another starting pitcher, then they should go after Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez, both of whom are better pitchers right now than Pettitte. If the Yankees continue to be patient and open up their massive check book, there should be no reason why the Yankees do not compete for either guy.

Andy Pettitte brings the Yankees and their fans some sort of consistency and reliability. Pettitte has been around forever and is a lock to give the Yankees around 200 innings. However, the facts cannot be ignored, Pettitte is rapidly declining and no longer resembles the consistent ace that Yankee fans have grown to love.

If the Yankees want to spend tons of money on a rapidly declining fifth starter, then by all means go for it. The Yankees have more money than they know what to do with and if re-signing Pettitte is that important, than go for it. But if the Yankees want to win in 2009, their best bet is to let Pettitte go and move on.

Monday, January 5, 2009

What Is Derek Lowe Waiting For?

Last week, it was reported that the Mets offered Derek Lowe a 3 year/$36 million contract. While this proposal is certainly respectable, it was far less than Lowe expected and as a result, he did not accept the offer.

My question is: does he really think there is a better offer out there? And if so, where will the money come from?

The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, and Braves all do not appear to be in the running for Lowe's services. Unless someone changes their mind, it appears as though the Mets will be bidding against themselves.

The problem with Lowe is that his performance warrants a large contract, but his age (36) makes teams shy away from giving him the years and dollars that the Yankees gave AJ Burnett. Lowe is much more consistent than Burnett and does not have the extensive injury history of the flame throwing right hander, but it's a near certainty that Lowe will be paid significantly less than Burnett.

So what should Lowe and agent Scott Boras do?

Well, they could accept the Mets offer, which is probably the best one on the table. Earning $12 million a season is nothing to laugh at and pitching in New York will give Lowe the exposure and east coast vibe that he reportedly wants.

Or Lowe could continue to wait the market out, hoping that some team flies in with an incredible offer. However, this move is a risky one. As more time goes by, more teams fill their pitching holes elsewhere and the number of suitors will dwindle.

And finally, Lowe could take a one year pact, which is unheard of amongst Scott Boras's clients. Boras's clients typically max out their earning potential while a one year contract obviously leaves much to be desired for the money hungry Boras. However, this type of deal could appeal to Lowe especially if he believes the market will improve in 2009. A bigger pay day might only be a year away.

But on the other hand, would a 36 year old pitcher really be willing to take a one year contract? I think not.

Either way, I think that the Mets offer is Lowe's best bet. Even if he cannot see it now, his market has failed to develop and $12 million per season might be the best he can do.

I admit that this post is rather selfish: I would love to see Lowe pitch for the Mets in Citi Field next season. But the logical side of me just doesn't see the big contract out there for Lowe right now.

Too bad the Yankees don't need another starter.

The Indians and Ben Sheets?

Back in 2005, the Indians signed SP Kevin Millwood to a 1 year contract after teams shied away from him because of elbow problems. The move paid major dividends for the Indians as Millwood delivered with a 2.86 ERA as he led the young Indians pitching staff. Millwood parlayed his great season with the Indians into a huge contract with the Texas Rangers a year later.

Fast forward to 2008, the Indians have just spent roughly $15 million bucks adding Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa to the team. After a lack luster 2008, the Indians now appear set to seriously compete for a division crown. This team has the potential to be very deep and dangerous.

However, I still believe that the Indians are still another starting pitcher away from being serious competitors. Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Scott Lewis might become good pitchers one day, but who knows what they can bring to the table in 2009? Furthermore, the Indians will likely get nothing out of Jake Westbrook, who is expected to miss the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

Enter Ben Sheets.

The right handed pitcher has the make up of an ace with his heavy fastball and devastating curveball. However, he also has an extensive injury history and concerns about his shoulder and elbow that are sure to drive teams away. The only team that has expressed serious interest up to this point is the pitching deficient Texas Rangers.

Yuck. Why in the world would Sheets want to pitch in Texas, where pitchers careers go to die? That would not be a good move for his career.

The Indians have a wonderful opportunity to make a serious push on Sheets. They can offer Sheets the opportunity to prove to the rest of baseball that he is indeed healthy and that the concerns about his arm are for naught. A big season with the Indians coupled with a potential post season birth could lead Sheets to a big contract in 2010, just like Millwood.

And as the off season drags on, the price tag on Sheets will only go down, especially if the Rangers decide not to make a big push. A one year deal worth under $10 million bucks is certainly not out of the question.

Given the current economic situation, it is highly unlikely that any team will overpay for a pitcher with significant injury history. However, the best move Sheets could make right now would be to take a one year deal with a competitive team that could boost his stature and prove the baseball world wrong.

By only signing a one year contract, the Indians would only take on limited risk in the deal. If Sheets gets hurt, then the Indians would lose several million bucks and move on with the young guys. However, if Sheets performs at an all star level, the Indians could catapult above the White Sox and Twins in the AL Central and make a strong push to compete for the AL Pennant.

I know it would be terribly difficult for the Indians to afford Sheets in 2009. With a payroll already approaching $80 million, I'm sure the Indians owners are not too eager to add another $8-$10 million to that total. But this move is worth the risk because the potential reward could be vast and greater than anything the Indians have experienced since 1954.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

2009!

Happy New Year everybody! No matter what team you root for, let's hope that 2009 is better than 2008 (except for the Phillies fans)! For me personally, I'm just hoping that the Mets won't collapse this year, but as Met fans know, nothing comes easy with the Metropolitans.

As for the blog, this year has been quite a success. Since we came to be roughly five months ago, we have both good and bad days as the blog began the upward climb towards respectability, a readership, and quality content. The blog is still somewhat of a work in progress, but I am proud of what this blog has been able to accomplish thus far.

Jorge Says No! on Rob Neyer (Monday Mendozas 12/29)

-Will the Giants be competitive, having signed The Big Unit? According to Jorge Says No!, much depends upon whether Travis Ishikawa and Pablo Sandoval are the real deal. Well, Sandoval's for real. At least as a hitter; it's not clear that he'll find a position anytime soon. As for Ishikawa -- who plays Sandoval's most likely eventual position -- his track record isn't bad, but John Sickels recently rated him as a C+ prospect (and by the way, John's book, as essential as ever, is now available for pre-order.

Jorge Says No! on Washington Post (Nationals Journal 12/12)

-I have no idea who this dude is, but Josh at the jorgesaysno blogspot says Teixeira should sign with the Nats. And that's good enough for me!

So there you have it, in just five short months, we have been featured in two prominent sports websites. Not too shabby! This was obviously a huge thrill for me especially being an avid reader of both ESPN and the Washington Post. There is nothing cooler than reading an entry and seeing your site linked!

As for the Washington Post, even if you guys have no idea who I am, thanks so much for the link. Hopefully you guys will be hearing more from me in the near future.

And finally, I want to take some time to thank all the readers. Without you, Jorge Says No! would not exist. It's still somewhat hard to believe that people would actually stop to read my sometimes random thoughts into the world of baseball. So once again, thank you, and please come back soon and often!

As always, any comments/suggestions are greatly appreciated!

-Jorge Says No!
jorgesaysno@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

The Money Saving Chicago Cubs

Can anyone say Milton Bradley? There is definitely something brewing on the North Side as the Cubs have pulled off two cost cutting trades in the past two days.

First, Jason Marquis to the Rockies

Then today, Mark DeRosa to the Indians

Why would the Cubs trade away two valuable pieces? The Cubs are looking to upgrade their main weakness (i.e left handed power hitter) by dumping guys who they can replace. The Cubs could afford to deal Mark DeRosa even after a career season because they already have Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot, and now Aaron Miles to cover both second base and shortstop. Also, the Cubs have five quality starters without Jason Marquis in addition to Sean Marshall and Rich Hill, both of whom could contribute at some point this season.

Simply put, the Cubs could move on without Marquis and DeRosa.

No fan likes to see their team essentially give away pretty good players, but this is only the start for the improving Cubs. Given the current market situation, the Cubs should be prime players for Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, or the aforementioned Bradley because of the money they have saved from these two deals (roughly $12 million). That will make their lineup more balanced and dangerous considering how many formidable right handed threats they already have (Ramirez, Lee, Soriano).

If the Cubs pick up a formidable left handed hitter, they will become even more dangerous in 2009 than they were in 2008.

Who Wants To Be a Yankee?

What do these guys all have in common?

CC Sabathia:
-Never won a title
-Made ALCS with Indians in 2007; pitched terribly
-Made NLDS with Brewers in 2008; pitched terribly

AJ Burnett:
-Was on Marlins Championship team in 2003, but...was injured
-Does he get a ring for that?
-Never pitched in the post season...ever

Mark Teixeira:
-Never won a title
-Reached the post season for the first time in 2008 with Angels...played well
-Never came close to the playoff with the Rangers (4.5 seasons)

The bottom line is that none of these guys have extensive experience playing in the playoffs and winning championships. Making the playoffs and winning championships are what the Yankees are known for. Besides all the money, it's no surprise that so many players still clamor to play for the somewhat dysfunctional, pressure packed Bronx Bombers.

In the end, all that matters is winning.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Hendrickson to the Orioles

Before yesterday, the Orioles starting rotation looked something like this:

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. ??????????
3. ?????????????
4. ????????
5. ???????????

So it's obvious that the Orioles needed to add some depth to their starting rotation, even if they have virtually no shot at competing this season. They needed starting pitchers to eat some innings in order to ease the burden off of their young starters (Liz, Olson, etc.) and conserve their bullpen.

However, is Mark Hendrickson really a viable solution? According to several reports, the Orioles are on the verge of signing Hendrickson to a one year contract that would fill one of the voids in the Orioles rotation.

My problem with the Hendrickson signing is simple: he has not been an effective starting pitcher since the first half of 2006. Since then, Hendrickson has been living in mediocrity land as his ERA as a starter has consistently hovered around 5 and peaked at 6.24 in 2008. Hendrickson does not strike out anyone (81 K in 2008) and gives up an absurd amount of base hits (148 hits in 133 innings).There is no getting around the fact that Hendrickson stinks.

Perhaps the scariest part about this signing is that Hendrickson will now be pitching a majority of the time against AL East teams, who have lineups comparable to fantasy baseball teams (especially the Yankees). A scrub like Hendrickson will be eaten alive in the AL East, much like Steve Trachsel was this year. It could get real ugly in Baltimore folks.

And finally, the Orioles needed a starter who would relive the burden off of the young starters and bullpen, but I fear that Hendrickson will be the exact opposite. There is no upside or benefit to this signing for the Orioles and I think that they would have been better off with a different veteran starter or simply letting the young guys compete for the rotation spot.
I understand that there is virtually no risk with a one year contract, but the odds of Hendrickson helping the Orioles out of the rotation is very slim.

What Next? Nationals Edition

Now that the Nationals have officially missed out on signing 1B Mark Teixeira, what should they do next?

Well, it's complicated.

Several sources have mentioned the Nationals as contenders for Manny Ramirez, who remains unsigned with few suitors. Ramirez is reportedly looking for a three or four year contract worth at least $20-$25 million per year. Even though Ramirez is one of the best hitters in baseball, Ramirez's contract wishes are pretty steep for any team besides the Yankees.

So why does Ramirez make sense for the Nationals?

Simply put, the Nationals don't have much else and Ramirez would be a star player, who could revive baseball in Washington DC and inject some life into this listless franchise. Even at age 36, Ramirez is still one of the biggest stars in baseball and he could help the Nationals sell some tickets in their new stadium and show the rest of the baseball world that the Nationals are serious about competing.

However, signing Ramirez would be a huge risk for the Nationals.
First of all, Ramirez has a history of being a cancer with the Boston Red Sox and whose to say that Manny will not continue his act in Washington. Between not playing hard and faking injuries, Manny became a major problem with for the Red Sox, which ultimately forced the Red Sox to deal him away. The Nationals cannot afford such transgressions considering that they do not have the payroll or fan base of the Red Sox. The Nationals need a sure thing, who they know will produce.

Also, the Nationals already have a glutton of outfielders. Besides the emerging Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes, the Nationals recently acquired Josh Willingham from the Marlins, which rounds out a young and potentially productive outfield. On top of those three, the Nationals also have Austin Kearns, Justin Maxwell, Willie Harris, and Wily Mo Pena fighting for at bats in 2008. Considering how many outfielders they already have, it would not make sense to throw tons of money at Manny only to replace younger and cheaper players.

And most importantly, the Nationals are probably not close to competing. Even though the Nationals have some talent, they are probably a few years away at least until they are ready to compete. How can they justify having a $20+ million dollar left fielder when they need to invest in so many other areas of the team? Ramirez would not be a cure all for the Nationals, who have several other weaknesses that they need to address.

I do not believe that Manny Ramirez is a good option for the Nationals. Same goes for Adam Dunn. The Nationals need to think long term, not short term.

With that, I believe that the Nationals need to be patient right now. It's still a buyer's market out there and there will be many good deals to be had. It's important to spend money, but the Nationals need to spend wisely even in the wake of losing Teixeira.

So here's my idea for the Nationals: go after either Orlando Hudson or Oliver Perez. Hudson would be a great fit for the Nationals, who badly need someone to lead their young group of players while providing steady production. Hudson would give the Nationals both aspects-offensively, defensively, and off the field. A perfect leader who might be had at a quality price.

As for Perez, we all know that he is inconsistent. However, Perez is only 27 years and has fantastic stuff. The Nationals would have the unique opportunity to sign Perez to a 3-5 year contract and watch him pitch in DC during his prime. That's an opportunity that would benefit the Nationals in both the short term and long term because Perez has the ability to produce at a high level throughout the length of the deal.

Perez will never be confused for an ace, but he has many qualities that should interest the Nationals. We'll see if the price comes down on Perez, especially as the suitors begin to shy away.

I'm sure if the Nationals want to spend money, the options will be out there. But do not forget about the big picture, the future, and smartly invest those dollars into guys who will help the team grow as a whole towards a winning future.

How the Wily Taveras Signing Could Make Sense

I know, it's hard to justify giving a center fielder with no power and a .308 OBP last season a 2 year contract. In most situations, this contract would be considered incredibly stupid, especially considering how bad the free agent market is right now. But considering how this Reds team is constructed, signing Wily Taveras actually makes sense.

What the Reds needed most headed into 2009 was a table setter. The Reds had a pretty good offense in 2008, but they lacked a consistent leadoff hitter who could set the table for Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce. Hell, even Corey Patterson got 82 starts for the Reds, which tells you how dire the situation was.

Also, Taveras is not a bad player by any stretch of the imagination. Sure his 2008 numbers were pretty bad (.251 BA, .308 OBP, 1 HR), but Taveras has demonstrated the ability to perform on the big league level. Taveras has a career batting average of .283 and in 2005, he was second to Ryan Howard in the Rookie of the Year voting. One down season does not diminish his previous accomplishments.

In addition, Taveras's best attribute is by far his speed. In 2008, Taveras stole a career best 68 bases while only getting caught seven times. When Taveras gets on base, he is absolutely lethal on the base paths and a near guarantee to swipe a base or two. He will add a new dimension to a Reds lineup that in 2008 ranked ninth in the NL in stolen bases (85) and second in the NL in caught stealing (47).

Reds fans are going to love watching Jay Bruce and Wily Taveras run down fly balls. These two guys are great defensive players and will be a major asset to the volatile pitching staff. Taveras uses his great speed to track down balls that most outfielders would not come close too. This aspect of Taveras's game cannot be understated.

And finally, for all these folks who are screaming and yelling about the length of the contract: remember that the Reds were looking for an outfielder who fit their specific wants (i.e: fast, cheap center fielder). Besides Taveras, there is no one else on the market who fits that description. Two years is not an unreasonable amount of time for a guy with the pedigree of Taveras. Point to his 2008 stats all you want, but two years of Taveras is not the worst thing for a Reds team that only has three outfielders right now on their 40 man roster.

If Taveras can produce at his 2005-2007 level, then the Reds lineup could become one of the best in the National League. While they lack the names of the past (Dunn and Griffey), this lineup offers more depth and options, which could make the Reds a fun team to watch. I look forward to seeing Taveras set the table for the young studs (Votto and Bruce) as the Reds continue to play high scoring games at Great American Ballpark

Monday, December 29, 2008

Will the Giants Compete With Randy Johnson?

There are many reasons to like the Randy Johnson signing if your a Giants fan.

First of all, Johnson is still a very effective pitcher, even at age 45. Last season, Johnson won 11 games with an impressive 3.91 ERA in 184 innings. The Randy Johnson of 2009 will never be confused for the intimidating strikeout machine of the mid nineties, but Johnson still struck out 173 hitters last season. Perhaps the best sign is that Johnson started 30 games last season and did not miss significant time because of injury.

He should be a very effective third or fourth starter for the Giants behind Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and maybe Jonathan Sanchez. If the Giants can get anything at all from Barry Zito, then this rotation could be one of the best in baseball. Furthermore, this rotation has great potential to win many games because have a pretty good bullpen on paper with Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, and Bobby Howry.

Another important factor in this signing is that Johnson is only five wins away from 300. Even though Johnson has never pitched for the Giants before, I'm sure that Giants fans would love to see someone in their uniform achieve one of the highest goals in pitching. Right off the bat, every game Johnson pitches in San Francisco should be a sell out, which is great for the Giants franchise and fan base.

The Giants have done a great job building up pitching depth for 2009, but I'm not sure if they will be legitimate competitors out West. The Giants offense on paper still stinks unless Travis Ishikawa and Pablo Sandoval are the real deal. This team really struggled to score runs last season and they are still in dire need of an impact bat or two.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

What Next? Red Sox Edition

As the off-season began, I thought the Red Sox were going to be relatively quiet this off-season. Besides some minor tweaking, I did not expect the Red Sox to be players for any of the major free agents. The Red Sox already have a tremendous core group of players, who seem destined to win many baseball games for the Red Sox.

However, the Red Sox did not sit quietly this off-season. Concerned about aging DH David Ortiz and the injury prone Mike Lowell, the Red Sox made an aggressive push to sign free agent 1b Mark Teixeira. At times, the Red Sox appeared to be the front-runner to sign Teixeira, but ultimately Teixeira signed with the Red Sox free spending division rival-the New York Yankees.

We will never know if the Red Sox interest in signing Teixeira ultimately motivated the Yankees to make a strong push for Teixeira. However, the Red Sox must recognize that this signing puts them in a pickle-what to do next?

The Sox seem to have realized that Ortiz and Lowell are likely on the decline and that if they are going to compete with the Yankees and Rays, they will need more production from their DH and third baseman. Both Lowell and Ortiz had down years in 2008, which is a concern because the Sox no longer have Manny Ramirez to produce in the cleanup spot.

However, at this point, the Red Sox best bet is probably to stand pat and hope that Lowell and Ortiz stay healthy and productive. There is no one available on the free agent market right now that would significantly upgrade the Red Sox lineup. With that said, the Red Sox need to make sure they have quality depth on the bench should Ortiz or Lowell go down with an injury or struggle.

There is no reason for the Red Sox to panic. While it’s tough to watch the Yankees sign Teixeira, they are still in a very good position even without Teixeira.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

What Next? Angels Edition

The Angels have been painfully quiet this off season thus far. They have watched all-stars Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez sign elsewhere for more money while they have been reluctant to go after any big free agents. To date, their biggest move this off season was re-signing Juan Rivera to a three year contract. Not exactly setting the bottom line on fire with these moves.

So after letting Rodriguez go free and taking themselves out of the Teixeira sweepstakes, are the Angels in danger of losing their grip atop the AL West? Probably not. But if they are going to compete with the beasts of the AL East, they need to make some moves and keep improving this team.

Here are some moves that make sense for the Angles moving forward:

1. Sign Brian Fuentes
-Even after losing Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels still have a stacked bullpen led by Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Angels did not address their bullpen, that they would still survive in 2009.

However, by signing Brian Fuentes, a Californian, the Angels would be constructing a potentially dominant bullpen that would give manager Mike Scioscia lots of options and flexibility. Fuentes would give the Angels a dominate left handed presence out of the Angels bullpen and would make a wonderful 1-2 punch with Arredondo. If the Angels are going to compete in the AL, they need to have a deep bullpen to supplement their powerful rotation.

Plus, the Angels could probably sign Fuentes at a reduced rate. Because the economy is so bad, mid level free agents like Fuentes will have to sign below what the market previously demanded they receive. How often can a team acquire a three time all star at a bargain price? Gotta love this market!

2. Sign Adam Dunn
-With Teixeira gone to the Yankees, the Angels need to acquire a power hitter to add some juice to the Angels lineup. Dunn would be the perfect fit. He has hit 40 homers in each of the past four seasons and can be counted on to produce a high OBP and OPS. Dunn would thrive hitting in front of Vladimir Guerrero, who would provide great protection for the patient Dunn.

Sure Guerrero is aging, but he is still one of the best hitters in baseball. However, he cannot carry the load by himself. He needs help.

The Angels cannot expect to seriously compete for a pennant with their lineup as constructed. In big situations, Guerrero will be pitched around and instead of facing another prominent hitter, teams will only have to deal with Juan Rivera, Torii Hunter, and Howie Kendrick. Good players, but none are in the same category as Dunn.

However, there are several issues that we need to address here. The Angels seem to be committed to giving their young players more playing time in 2009 in light to losing Teixeira. Reggie Willits, Kendry Morales, and Juan Rivera all seem to be in line for more playing time this season, which should eliminate the Angels interest in Dunn.

In addition, where would Dunn play? The Angels are already overloaded at OF and unless Dunn is willing to play 1b or DH full time, he does not appear to be a fit with the Angels.

However, not attempting to sign Dunn would be a massive mistake. The goal should be to win right now especially after failing to win a championship in 2008. Dunn would make a perfect DH for the Angels not only for his ability, but because of his price. Like Brian Fuentes, Dunn will probably receive far less on the open market than he ever expected because of the bad economy. The Angels will probably only have to commit to Dunn for a year or two, which mitigates their risk.

And finally, Dunn should be willing to play 1b or DH for several reasons. Considering how poor this market is, Dunn should feel fortunate to play with the Angels and play in a market that will increase his stature and visibility. Playing and succeeding with the Angels could help line up Dunn for a bigger contract down the road. Also, Dunn's wants to play for a winner and play in the post season, both of which the Angels have excelled at over the years.

I still believe that the Angels will be a major factor in 2009. However, if they want to be serious competitors they need to remain active in trying to improve their roster.

Friday, December 26, 2008

Now That's An Expensive Infield

In 1910, Philadelphia Athletics manager Connie Mack assembled the famed "$100,000 infield." The combination of Eddie Collins, Home Run Baker, Stuffy McInnis, and Jack Berry propelled the Athletics to the top of the American League and led the Athletics to three World Championships.

Mack was a firm believer that the infield was a integral part to building a winning baseball team. Therefore, Mack was willing to spend whatever it took to bring the best set of infielders to his Athletics.

Fast forward to 2008, and it appears as though Yankees GM Brian Cashman has reinvented the $100,000 infield. Cashman has assembled the best infield that money could buy (literally) and in the process has built the most dynamic set of infielders that my generation will likely see.

Let me now introduce you to the $80.5 million dollar infield:

1B: Teixeira: $22.5 mil
2B: Cano: $6 mil
SS: Jeter: $20 mil
3B: Rodriguez: $32 mil

The 2009 salary of the four Yankee infielders is more than the 2008 team payroll of sixteen teams. That's half the league!

It will be determined if Cashman's $80 million infield attains the level of success that of the $100,000 infield, but Cashman has built the present and future Yankees through the infield. If the Yankees are going to win in 2009 and beyond, these four all-stars will play a vital role in their success. Somewhere Connie Mack is smiling.

Mark Teixeira to the Yankees

Wow. After weeks of only hearing about the Red Sox, Orioles, Angels, and Nationals being involved in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, the Yankees ultimately landed the free agent slugger with an 8 year/$180 million contract. The contract is further proof that you can never count out the Yankees, who have now spent over $400 million bucks this off season on only five players.

This deal makes so much sense for the Yankees. For starters, the Yankees needed another potent bat in the middle of their lineup to drive in runs and come through in big situations. Teixeira fits the description perfectly; he's one of the best power hitters in baseball and has driven in over 100 runs in four straight seasons. Hitting 40+ homers with 140 RBIs should not be out of the question for Teixeira considering the vast talent in the Yankee lineup.

Also, Teixeira is only 28 years old. While age may be overrated at times, Teixeira is entering his prime right now and should have many good seasons ahead of him. It's good to see GM Brian Cashman shy away from signing older players, who are more prone to decline and injuries and instead focusing on younger players, who have room to improve and grow. Plus, the combination of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira will be absolutely lethal. Have fun pitching to those two for the next eight years, American League pitching.

The most underrated factor in this signing is Teixeira's defense. Teixeira is considered to be one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball and he won a gold glove in both 2005 and 2006. The Yankees infield defense is shaky at best: Robinson Cano is prone to mental lapses, A-Rod has experienced defensive ups and downs in the past, and Derek Jeter's defensive skills (range!) have been declining for the past few seasons. Teixeira will stabilize the Yankees infield defense because he is a major upgrade over the horrific Jason Giambi, who was a very weak defensive first baseman.

This move makes the lineup scary. There is not one weak link in this lineup and IF everyone is healthy, this lineup could and should set records for both runs and home runs. By my count, every projected starter the Yankees have right now has hit at least 20 HR in at least one big league season. The Yankees have built a modern day murderer's row.

I'm not going to lie though, I am disappointed by this signing. On one hand, I am disappointed that Teixeira did not jump at the opportunity to sign with the Nationals and transform the baseball culture in Washington DC. With the Yankees, Teixeira will just be another big star on a team of big stars instead of being the man with the Nationals. However, there was no guarantee that the Nationals would or even could compete at this point, so I cannot blame Teixeira for going for the sure thing.

In 2009, the Yankees should be a sure thing. On paper, they have the best team in baseball, but they are playing in a awfully tough division. After doling out all of this money, the Yankees are sure to be the team to watch in 2009, but we will have to wait and see if the Yankees with Teixeira can surpass the Red Sox and Rays.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

The Market for Manny Ramirez

During the second half of the 2008 season, Manny Ramirez put up legendary numbers with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ramirez hit .396 with 17 HR and 53 RBI in roughly two months with the Dodgers. Ramirez's torrid hitting propelled the Dodgers to a division title and a spot in the NLCS.

However, Ramirez's market has been slow to develop despite his phenomenal 2008 season. Ramirez and agent Scott Boras seemed confident that they would be able to turn Ramirez's amazing two months with the Dodgers into a huge contract (4 years/$100 mil).

However, Ramirez has failed to come close to the huge contract thus far.

The Dodgers has reportedly offered Ramirez a 2 year/$45 million extension in November that would make Ramirez one of the highest paid players in baseball. However, Ramirez and Boras held off on accepting that deal believing that they could still do better. The Dodgers need Manny in the heart of their lineup and as the soul of their team, so it would not be surprising to see GM Ned Colletti concede some demands to Boras and Manny.

And then we have the Yankees. Even though the Yanks have already spent more than $220 million on starting pitching, Ramirez would be a great fit hitting behind Alex Rodriguez and would give the Yankees a modern day murderer's row.

So will the Yankees make a strong push for Manny? Maybe. It was reported by a Spanish newspaper that the Yankees had offered Ramirez a 3 year/$75 million contract, but Yanks GM Brian Cashman quickly shot it down. Ramirez would be a great fit for the Yankees, but paying him $75 million at this point seems rather ridiculous given the market.

And how about the rest of the league? Who knows?

The Angels might have interest now that they have moved past the idea of re-signing Mark Teixeira. They need a a bonafide star and a big hitter in the middle of their lineup to protect Vladimir Guerrero. Ramirez would instantly make the Angels heavy favorites to win the AL West and legitimate contenders to win the World Series.

The Nationals might have interest in Ramirez if the fail to land Teixeira. The Nationals are desperate to show the rest of the league that they are serious about competing and spending $20+ mil on Ramirez would certainly send that message. Also, Manny would give the Nationals the legitimate superstar that they have not had since they moved to Washington. He would put fans in the stands and give people a reason to watch the lowly Nationals.

Once Teixeira signs, the market for Manny should begin to heat up. Manny might be a head case and a clubhouse cancer, but there is no doubt that Ramirez is one of the best hitters alive right now. The market has been surprisingly been slow to develop, but like other top free agents (Sabathia, Teixeira), Manny will get his money.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Teixeira's No Angel

Yesterday, the Angels decided to withdraw their offer (probably 8 years/$160 mil (ish)) to Mark Teixeira effectively taking themselves out of the running for the slugging first baseman. According to Tim Brown of Yahoo.com,

"Sources close to the process said Angels owner Arte Moreno concluded that
Teixeira did not intend to play for the Angels and that his team was being used
to drive up the price for the other interested clubs."


This sounds like a classic play by Teixeira's agent, Scott Boras, to use competition to drive up the price tag on his prized client. However, instead of getting a bigger contract for Teixeira, Boras's high asking price and negotiating tactics have taken the Red Sox and Angels out of the Teixeira sweepstakes. Nice job Mr. Boras.

So what now for Teixeira?

Fear not people, Teixeira will still get his money. Even as the suitors begin to fall, you have to remember that the Nationals are still very much involved in these negotiations. While GM Jim Bowden would probably give an arm and a leg to get Teixeira, we can only speculate the extent to which Teixeira wants to play in Washington.

At this point, the two seem like a perfect match.

The Nationals are willing to offer Teixeira the huge contract he desires. They will probably overpay if need be. If Teixeira goes to the Nationals, it will undoubtedly be because the Nationals offered him the best contract/gave him the most money.

And for Teixeira, the Nationals appear to be the lone serious suitor remaining, which would should make them the instant favorites for his services...right?

Maybe. Depending on how badly Teixeira does not want to play with the Nationals, the field (i.e rest of the league) may not be totally out of these talks. We all know how much Scott Boras loves to use competition to create a market and don't be surprised if that is exactly what he does.

With the Angels now out of the picture, maybe the Red Sox will decide to re-enter the negotiations. Their competition for Teixeira is now greatly reduced thanks to the Angels exit, which could make their previous offer a more serious one for Teixeira's services. Teixeira would be a great fit in Boston, especially for a guy that "loves the East Coast."

And don't forget about the Yankees. I know all reports have stated that they NOT going after Teixeira, but given this scenario with the current economic climate, the Yankees could take advantage of a dwindling market for Teixeira by jumping into these negotiations and signing yet another franchise player. Never count out the Yankees because hey, they're the Yankees.

And as was reported earlier in the week, the Orioles have made an offer to Teixeira as well, but many baseball people believe that their offer was too low. We'll see if the Orioles become players again in the Teixeira sweepstakes. You have to remember that Teixeira is a Maryland native, which could help the Orioles enormously in future negotiations.

If I'm Orioles GM Andy McPhail, I would call up Scott Boras today and increase the offer. This is an opportunity that the Orioles cannot afford to sit on the sidelines for, especially when the rival Nationals are the other main suitor involved.

It's the Hard Knock Life

I know this is a baseball blog, but the symmetry between the Mets and Jets, two teams that I root heaviest for, is remarkably eerie this morning.

Yay for yet another collapse!

I have been a Jets fan for as long as I can remember. And each season, they have let me down. And it seems as though this season is going to be no exception.

For all of you non-football fans out there, the Jets fell from first to third in the AFC East by losing to lowly Seattle yesterday, 13-3. The loss probably eliminates the Jets' playoff hopes and reduces Jet fans to ponder how this former "Super Bowl Contender" could have blown the division lead late in the season.

And as we all know, my beloved Mets have collapsed in September for the last two seasons, painfully losing a playoff spot on the final day of the season.

Losing is painful enough, but late season collapses are absolute torture. The highs and lows of a good, but not good enough season suck the life out of a fan base while leaving me feeling paralyzed to think about football or the Jets.

So instead, I'll leave you with a video that will better express how much it sucks to be a Mets and Jets fan right now.





We will now return to your previously scheduled baseball content.