Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Valuing Joel Pineiro

What kind of contract will Joel Pineiro get on the open market? The great Jon Heyman took a stab at that very question yesterday with this prediction:
"Pineiro, two years, $15 million."
This prediction is interesting to me because it's far lower than my prediction for Pineiro a week back of 4 years/$40 million. Either I really like Pineiro or Heyman really dislikes Pineiro. Or maybe the market just sucks.

But nevertheless, here's my reasoning for the 4 years/$40 million prediction:

1. he's young (just turned 31)

2. fantastic 2009 season

Does anyone realize just how good Pineiro has been this season? According to fangraphs:

-Pineiro has been worth $23.8 million this year
-5.3 WAR
-1st in BB/9 (1.1)
-1st in HR/9 (.3)
-1st in ground ball % (61.4%)
-3rd in line drive % (15.6%)
-9th in WHIP (1.13)
-15 wins

3. Pineiro is one of the best free agent pitchers on the market.

Seriously. Here is my top five:

1. John Lackey
2. Joel Pineiro
3. Randy Wolf
4. Rich Harden
5. Jason Marquis

It's hard to argue that Pineiro is not the second best pitcher on the market right now. He's one of the youngest quality free agent pitchers on the market and is coming off a season where he dominated the National League.

I know Pineiro's history isn't the greatest, but can anyone honestly see teams letting Pineiro get away signing a 2 year/$15 million dollar contract? I doubt it. If the market falls to the point where Pineiro is settling on 2 years/$15 million, then the other free agents in this class are going to have a very rough time.

Thoughts? What kind of deal will Pineiro receive?

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Chris said...

Do you think he'll have a repeat performance? I mean he hasn't been this good since his early 20s. The past 7 years have pretty much been below average for him.

I'm hoping he serves as a nice decoy in next year's fantasy draft as people jump on the buzz created this year, as well as during his free agency and think they're getting an amazing deal.

Jorge Says No! said...

Do you think he'll have a repeat performance?

That's the question that will determine the market for Pineiro. If there are believers out there (like me), then he could get paid very handsomely. His numbers this season have just been ridiculous.