Connecting the Dots

Hmmm...coincidence anyone? On the same day that the Yankees free up $35 million dollars by not picking up the options of Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano, Blue Jays SP AJ Burnett announced that he will opt out of his contract and become a free agent. This seems to be a match made in heaven...the Yankees want to add two front line starters while Burnett wants to make more money than God. Match made in heaven!

Burnett has everything that the Yankees are looking for in a pitcher: he's young, he throws 98+, and is a Yankee killer. Oh yeah, Burnett has a long history of injuries, is frequently inconsistent, and will cost a boatload of money. Injuries? Who cares about injuries? It's not like the Yankees had Carl Pavano for the last four years. And money? Please. The Yankees are absolutely flushed with cash...what will it hurt to offer Burnett ace money when in reality, he is no better than a #2 or #3? Only Hank can answer that.

Mark my words, if AJ Burnett winds up in pinstripes, Yankee fans from coast to coast will be disappointed in his performance. Burnett has all the potential in the world, but he has never sustained that potential over a long period of time. You can understand why a team like the Yankees would want Burnett: he reeks of potential. But at what point does that vast potential simply turn into massive frustration? That's the story of AJ Burnett and that is exactly why the large amounts of money the Yankees could throw at Burnett will only lead to frustration.
(Photo: AP)

Have Fun with that, Mike Maddux

The Rangers announced yesterday that they have signed Mike Maddux to be their pitching coach. Maddux, who never had much of a major league career, has made a name for himself with the Brewers over the past few seasons as the team's pitching coach. Maddux took retreads like Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, and Derrick Turnbow and turned them into useful parts for the upstart Brewers. There is no doubt that the guy is a talented pitching coach, whatever that means.

But can he do it in Texas? I'm not so sure. Sure the Rangers have tons of retreads and AAAA pitchers, but there is no way that Maddux can fix them all! I mean, is there anything that Maddux can do with Luis Mendoza and his 8.67 ERA? Or how about Scott Feldman and his 5.29 ERA? I don't think minor adjustments will fix some of these guys; they just flat out suck. And oh my, the Rangers team ERA was 5.97! Yikes.

So if GM Jon Daniels is serious about fixing the Rangers pitching problems, then he needs to upgrade the talent. It's obvious that some of these guys on the Ranger's staff are simply not fit to pitch in the big leagues (Kameron Loe!); at least not yet (Matt Harrison!). Until the Rangers acquire some pitching talent, the Rangers porous pitching will continue to make Rangers' games hard to watch. I'm not saying that Mike Maddux will not do a good job, but he is not a miracle worker.

Like Orel Hershiser and Mark Connor before him, I expect Maddux to struggle. The staff will struggle because the talent is not there, but on top of that, the Ballpark at Arlington (Ameriquest Field!!!!) is a hellhole for pitchers. Don't believe me? Just go ask Kevin Millwood, Chan Ho Park, Vincente Padilla, all of whom have seen their careers flounder while their ERAs skyrocket as Rangers. It's hard to pitch in a place that has literally murdered the careers of many pitchers.

I hope that Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels will give Maddux the time and talent to develop quality pitchers in Texas. But somehow, I doubt that they will. Ryan will be too frustrated by the miserable pitching to watch his pitchers continue to flounder and at the same time, Daniels is on the hot seat, and needs results now. The Rangers pitching is an organizational problem from the top down. Maddux certainly has his work cut out for him, but the only way for the Rangers to compete is to find pitching talent-and that begins at the top. Eventually they will find out that Luis Mendoza's do not win pennants.

The Royals Continuous Assault on OBP

In 2008, the Royals were dead last in the MLB in team OBP. So entering the offseason, one would figure that the Royals top priority would be to increase their team OBP. However, all signs point otherwise. On Thursday, the Royals traded for Mike Jacobs and his .299 OBP. And then today, the Royals re-signed backup catcher Miguel Olivo and his .278 OBP. All I know is that both of these guys blend in very well with Jose Guillen and his .300 OBP.

Olivo is at best a backup catcher, but when your options are Olivo and John Buck, odds are Olivo will get a chunk of playing time because of his power and defense. Oh yeah, it was only two months ago that Olivo emphatically stated, "hell no" when asked if he would be back with the Royals in 2009. I guess Olivo has 2.7 million reasons why he wants to be back in KC.

I am one of the few who actually supports the Jacobs acquisition because I still feel like the move shored up a major weakness: the Royals had no power. But spending almost $3 million dollars on a scrub catcher who cannot consistently get on base...not too sure on that one.

Just Say No CC!

With the start of free agency quickly approaching, almost every major sports network has already determined that the Yankees will probably sign CC Sabathia simply because they will offer him more money than anyone else will. It's the perfect storm: the Yankees have about $80 million bucks coming off the books to throw at the best free agent pitcher since, gulp, Barry Zito. If CC does take the Yankees money, I don't think any of us could blame him. But just for fun, I tried to find as many reasons as I could for Sabathia to turn down the Yankees' potentially outrageous offer.

Reasons why CC Sabathia should NOT sign with the Yankees:

1. Comfort
Will you really be comfortable in New York CC? By all accounts, you love the west coast and would be totally content to spend the next 5-7 years of your career out west. If that's where your heart is, then why not follow it? Hell, even Milwaukee seemed to be a great fit for you. Is an extra $20-$30 million really that important to you? Think about your happiness and desires before committing long term to the Pinstripes.

2. National League
Most baseball people will agree that even though the Phillies won the World Series this season, that the National League is inferior to the American League. All you need to do is look at your God-like statistics with the Brewers for half a season and understand that you could build something special in the National League. Your legacy as one of the all-time great pitchers can be fostered by staying in the National League for awhile.

3. History
Look at the past fortunes of Yankee free agent pitchers: Jose Contreras, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa. What do they all have in common? They all stunk up the joint once they put on the pinstripes. Is there a correlation between free agent pitchers and Yankee cash? We may never know, but CC, do you really want to take that risk?

4. The Brewers
On top of all that CC, you have another ridiculous opportunity to explore if you choose to do so. Because of your phenomenal 2008 second half with the Brewers, the fans adore you and the front office is willing to jump through hoops to get you to stay with them. You would not need to proved yourself to a loyal legion of fans like Johan Santana did with the Mets and you would have a real chance to go out as a Brewers legend, especially if you bring Milwaukee a title. The iconic status that so few athletes achieve in a lifetime that is awaiting you in Milwaukee is nearly impossible to achieve elsewhere.

5. Expectations
If you decide to sign with the Yankees CC, think about what success will be. Yeah sure, every organization loves to make it the playoffs, but these are the Yankees, home to the Stienbrenner Doctrine that if you don't win a World Series, then the season has been a failure. So unless you win a title, the season will be marked as a failure. Do you really want that hanging over your head CC? If you don't deliver a title to these folks, they will view your signing as a failure. Every athlete wants to win, but those expectations are unreal. Final thought, how can it be fun playing when the expectations are astronomical? Isn't it fun to prove people wrong, do the impossible, or come out of nowhere? With the Yankees and their $200 million dollar payroll, astronomic expectations are all your gonna get.

6. Owners
Do you really want to surround yourself with the circus atmosphere of Hank Steinbrenner? If you do, your crazy, because this guy is everything is father was back in 1980s. And might I remind you how many titles the Yankees won with George's tyrannical ownership of the Yanks in the 80s: Zero. Plus, how many times do you want to be called out in the papers for having a few bad starts? Mark Attanasio and Arte Moreno look pretty good right now, don't they?

7. Talent
There is no doubt that the Yankees have an unbelievable collection of talent and more resources to produce talent than any other team in the majors. But can they be the best team? The Phillies won the World Series this year because they exemplified they had character, heart, and played passionate baseball on the biggest stage. By no means were they the most talented, but management understands that you cannot build a team simply by having all stars at every position. Teams have to have chemistry and mix in well together; characteristics that I'm not sure belong to the current group of Yanks.

8. Perception (David Wells Effect)
CC, do you want to be known as the lovable, plus sized teddy bear with a rubber arm (basically a better version of David Wells)? Or do you want to be known as the sellout who ran towards the almighty dollar? I'd rather be the fat, lovable, lefty any day.


So there you have it CC, the money is yours if that's what your after. But before your blown away by lots of loot and a crazy number of years, think about the big picture. Because in the end, its not all about dollars and cents.

Stay Home?

If you're like me, then you know that youth has become the newest fad in today's MLB. Young teams like the Rays, Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Indians have all made the playoffs over the past two years in large part because of their young core. In all honesty, this makes sense. Young players bring energy and exuberance, but most importantly, they are not past their prime like many of today's aging veterans. But even with the massive infusion of youth, there is a Jaime Moyer, who at 46 seems to have many good years ahead of him and is still in his prime, even with his grandfatherly age.

But most guys are not Jaime Moyer. Most players experience the natural regression of old age and diminished skills. But diminished skills does not always equal useless. Unless your name is Barry Bonds, most teams are willing to give experienced and successful veterans the chance to produce or see what they can do. At worst, they bring some name recognition. Case in point: David Cone with the Mets in 2004 or David Wells with the Padres and Dodgers in 2007. Both guys were terrible, but somehow managed to snag a job.

So which geezers SHOULD stay around? Who still has the skills to help a team? On the other side, which guys should stay home on the couch and get to know the family's TIVO a little better? Jorge Says No! takes a look:

Omar Vizquel: Let's look at the positives here: Vizquel can still field and he's still feuding with Jose Mesa, which is easily my favorite sports related mid nineties feud. After that, the positives are non-existent. Vizquel can no longer hit for average and is almost an automatic out at this point (.222 batting average this seasons). Unless Vizquel wants the "Rafael Belliard defensive specialist" role on a contending team, he should retire.
Verdict: Stay Home!
Tom Glavine: Only two years ago, Glavine was the only reliable starter for the Mets in their 2006 postseason run. He was loved by Mets fans for his gutty performances and ability to step up in the big moments. But his performance on the final day of the 2007 season changed everything. From there, it has been all downhill for Glavine. Known for his durability, Glavine missed a large portion of the season because of elbow and shoulder surgeries. Although Glavine was a very useful pitcher before 2008, there are not too many soft tossing lefties, who recover well from elbow and shoulder surgeries.
Verdict: Stay Home!

John Smoltz: Arm injuries are nothing new to the 41 year old Smoltz, but a torn labrum could potentially end his career. For the past seven seasons, Smoltz has delivered dominant results as both a starter and closer for the Braves. Many times Smoltz looked ageless and dominant, but how many pitchers pitch well after major shoulder surgery? Not many. Throw in Smoltz's age and this task appears to be too great to overcome. But if there is a pitcher that can come back from this, its Smoltz. The guy has too much heart and passion to simply give up without making a comeback attempt.
Verdict: Stay Around!
Ken Griffey Jr: Whenever I think about Junior's career, I can't help but feel some sort of sadness. Griffey was in his prime well before I really knew how special Griffey was. Griffey is only a shell of his former self, but he still can provide some value to a contending team. I would prefer to see Griffey involved in a platoon of some sort because he can no longer hit lefties well. I'm not sure if Griffey would accept a diminished role, but I'd love to see him try and win a championship.
Verdict: Stay Around!

Frank Thomas: I will be forever grateful to Thomas for helping me win my fantasy baseball league in 2007. Somehow at the age of 39, Thomas managed to hit 26 homers to go along with a .377 OBP. Injuries shortened Thomas' 2008 campaign right as he was getting going, but there is no reason why Thomas should not receive a job offer in 2009. Thomas can still hit, especially against lefties (.336 BA in 2007) and would make a great platoon DH. If Thomas would accept this role, I think he would thrive. I would love to see Frank with the Twins hitting near Mauer and Morneau. How well would that work?
(Note: If any team is going to sign Frank, be well aware that Thomas doesn't get going until at least May. The less Thomas plays in April, the better.)

If a team is going to take a shot on Thomas, they cannot solely depend on him because of the his diminished 2008 campaign and the injuries. I would happily take a chance on him either way because a motivated Frank Thomas is a scary hitter.
Verdict: Stay Around!

Jeff Kent: There is no doubt that Jeff Kent can hit. He has proven that throughout his entire career and will probably make it into the hall of fame. There is also no doubt that Jeff Kent is a pain in the ass. Between fighting with Barry Bonds, fighting with Milton Bradley, feuding with younger Dodgers, and finally, criticizing the immortal Vin Scully for "talking too much"; Kent brings controversy no matter where he goes. I hope that Kent decides to stay home. I'm sick of his antics. Enjoy the couch Jeff.
Verdict: Stay Home!

Pedro Martinez: Pedro is so far from his dominate self that it's actually tough to watch him. There was a period where I could be amazed by his guile and grittiness as Pedro masterfully navigated through lineups with terrible stuff, but by the end of 2008, Pedro could no longer survive without his dominant stuff. The 5.61 ERA this season does not fully exemplify how much Martinez actually struggled this year. It's clear to me that Pedro can be a good influence in whatever clubhouse he enters, but his days as a starter are gone. I'm sure someone will take a shot on Pedro as their fifth starter, but I doubt they will be able to get anything out of him.
Verdict: Stay Home!
(Photo: BBC)

Worth a Shot: Cory Sullivan

Whichever team decides to take a chance on Cory Sullivan will be grateful that they did. I'm not saying that Sullivan can be a starting outfielder, but there is no reason why Sullivan, 29, cannot at least compete for a starting job or be an effective fourth outfielder. Take into account that Sullivan was the starting outfielder for the Rockies in 2005 and 2006 before losing his spot after the Rockies traded for Wily Taveras. Sullivan was demoted before the 2007 season and unfortunately, never had another significant opportunity to gain his job back. Sullivan was granted free agency at the end of the 2008 season.

So what does Sullivan offer teams? Sullivan's game centers around line drives, high batting average, speed, and great defense. In the minors this season, Sullivan hit .320 with 7 HR, 43 RBI, and 13 SB for AAA Colorado Springs. Those are some fantastic statistics, but in addition, Sullivan has hit well in the majors before. In 2005, Sullivan hit .294 in 378 ABs and in 2006, Sullivan hit a respectable .267 in 386 ABs for the Rockies. However, Sullivan struggled to maintain a high OBP with the Rockies in 2005 and 2006, but it is encouraging to note that Sullivan managed a .373 OBP this season in AAA. In addition, by all accounts, Sullivan plays a fantastic center field. Known for his phenomenal range and ability to patrol center field, Sullivan would be a perfect fit in large stadiums (hello Marlins and Astros). Sullivan is not exceptional in any aspect of the game, but he has many attributes to offer any franchise.

Sullivan will never be confused for Matt Holliday, or even Brad Hawpe for that matter, but what he can offer a team is a solid lefty bat and tremendous defense. Hey, if Endy Chavez can have a job with the Mets because of his great defense and mediocre bat, then there is no reason why Sullivan should not have a job with a major league club. At worst, he provides the organization with valuable depth at a premium position.

All he needs is the chance, you'll thank me later.

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Orlando Hudson

When the Diamondbacks traded for Orlando Hudson after the 2005 season, they thought they knew exactly what they were getting: a great defensive second baseman who was a decent hitter. What they soon discovered was that Hudson was a much better player than his numbers had shown. On top of the gold glove defense, Hudson's batting average and OBP have increased to career highs while Hudson still delivers gold glove defense. Hudson's stellar play was a prime reason for the improved play of the Diamondbacks in 2007 and into 2008.

The Case for Hudson
-His glove.
Throughout his entire career, Hudson has been well known for his stellar play at second base. Hudson has won three gold gloves at the position and demonstrates phenomenal range and soft hands.

-The offense
Despite the Dustin Pedroias, Chase Utleys, and Ian Kinslers of the world, it is still difficult to find a second baseman who hits well at the plate. While Hudson is not in the category of these three guys, his offensive production has steadily increased to the point where Hudson can be a solid #2 or #6 hitter for most teams. Whatever team signs Hudson can count on a .290 batting average with 10-15 HR and 60-70 RBI. I tell you this much, I'd take that any day over Luis Castillo.

-Lefties? Righties? Who cares?
It's important to recognize that Hudson is unlike many other left handed hitters, especially second baseman. Over the past three seasons, Hudson's splits against lefties and righties have been phenomenal. Take a look:

2006: .270 (vs. RHP) .338 (vs. LHP)
2007: .298 (vs. RHP) .281 (vs. LHP)
2008: .321 (vs. RHP) .269 (vs. LHP)

Simply put, those splits are fantastic. Hudson is a guy who you want in the lineup regardless of whose pitching. With splits like this, Hudson would make a fantastic #2 hitter on many teams.

-"Clubhouse guy"
By all accounts, Hudson is the perfect clubhouse leader. With his infectious mix of energy and enthusiasm, Hudson has made his mark in the clubhouse with both the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks. So yes, most teams would love to have a guy like Hudson simply for his leadership abilities, but would they be willing to pay more because of this? I hope the Mets will, but we'll find out.

The Case Against Hudson
-Can he stay healthy?
In each of the past two seasons, Hudson's season has ended prematurely because of hand and wrist injuries. Both injuries were rather freak occurrences (sliding awkwardly into a base and colliding with Braves C Brian McCann), but both injuries greatly weakened the Diamondbacks. Even if Hudson is fully healed by spring training, Hudson's injury history is certainly not a positive addition to his resume and is by far, the biggest question Hudson must answer during the free agent process.

-Age.
Hudson, who will turn 31 in December, is no spring chicken. Sure he is still in his "prime years", but after all of the injuries, teams have to wonder how long Hudson will be able to maintain his production.

Competition
Perhaps the best thing Hudson has going for him is that the other free agent second basemen are pretty bad. Do you really want to take a chance on the inconsistent Nick Punto? Or how about the aging, injured, and perennial headcase, Jeff Kent? Even if Hudson is not one of the top second basemen in baseball, he is by far the best second baseman in this class.

And lucky for him, there are many teams that could be looking for a second baseman. I think the following teams will be interested: Mets, Indians, White Sox, Cardinals, and Dodgers to all express interest in Hudson. And how about the Cubs here? Hudson would provide major stability to an infield that looked atrocious during the NLCS.

Prediction
(4 years/$38 mil)
I admit that Hudson doesn't stand out to as a guy who deserves close to $10 mil per season. But in this market, with so many teams potentially needing a second basemen, I see the competition becoming fierce for Hudson's services. And how about this, take a look at these contracts given out to other second basemen. What do they all have in common? Hudson is a better bet than any of those guys and offers more intangibles (offense, defense, clubhouse) than any of these guys.

-Kaz Matsui (3 years/$16.5 mil)
-Luis Castillo (4 years/$26 mil)
-Robinson Cano (4 years/$30 mil)

So in turn, Hudson deserves to be paid more than each of these guys. And I'm very confident that he will find a few teams willing to pay for his services. However, if Hudson is looking for a contract similar to that of Chase Utley, he will be massively disappointed.

The Logical Movement of Mike Jacobs

For all of you who cannot wait for the 2009 season to begin, at least we have the hot stove season to keep us warm! And wow, the first major (depends on your definition) trade of the offseason has already happened! And what's even better, the trade is actually a good one for both sides.

Royals acquire:
1b Mike Jacobs

Marlins acquire:
RP Leo Nunez

On paper, this trade looks very good for the Royals. Jacobs comes to the Royals at a modest price (around $2 mil after arbitration), at a young age (28), and with light tower power (32 homers in 2008). So why would the Marlins trade this guy? A few reasons:

1. money
-Even though $2 mil is nothing for most major league teams, the Marlins will operate with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball next season and probably wanted to spend that money addressing other needs. Jacobs' power simply became a luxury for the Marlins who are loaded with offensive power, but need to address issues concerning their pitching and defense.

2. defense
Good thing Jacobs is coming to the AL because his defense is absolutely atrocious. Having Jacobs play 1b was a major liability for the team and made the other three infielders around him worse. This move could upgrade the pathetic Marlins infield defense.

3. OBP
Sure the 32 homers are great, but how about the .299 OBP. That clip flat out sucks especially for a middle of the order hitter.

Even with Jacob's obvious flaws, he was a good gamble for GM Dayton Moore to take. The 2008 Royals had absolutely no power to speak of outside of Jose Guillen and Alex Gordon while no Royal hit over 20 homers last season. For that reason alone, Jacobs is a good find for the Royals. How many young, power hitting first basemen can be found nowadays for a relief pitcher? Not many. Jacobs adds some instant punch to a lineup that was punch-less last season, but he will need to improve his OBP. I fear that Guillen and Jacobs will become the first 3 and 4 hitters to each have OBPs under .300. How scary would that be? Get on base fellas!

With the move, I wonder what will happen to Billy Butler and Kila Ka'aihue. Like Jacobs, Butler is a liability on the field, but he can rake. Or at least he did in AAA. We have yet to see consistent production from him in the majors. As for Ka'aihue, this move sets him back further on the Royals 1b depth chart. After a tremendous season in the minors, many thought that this guy was the Royals first baseman of the future because of his power. But after this move, I guess thats not the case. Maybe they weren't as high on him as all the experts are.

As for the Marlins, this trade makes a whole lot of sense. The 2009 Marlins need to add defense and pitching depth to remain competitive in the NL East. Adding Leo Nunez, a guy who very quietly produced a 2.98 ERA in 45 games for the Royals, the Marlins have added a potentially valuable piece to their bullpen. This move also give the Marlins the potential to add a defensive minded first baseman or third baseman, depending on whether they shift Jorge Cantu from first base to third base. The defensive "addition by subtraction" should make the Marlins a more fundamentally sound team. I fully expect the Marlins to compete for the top spot in the NL East next season. These guys are good and this move shows the genius of Larry Beinfest.

Kudos to both teams on a rare trade that benefits both sides!

Part VI: NL West Amnesty

Jorge Says No! introduced amnesty earlier and we are happy to present to you our NL West picks. Which contract would your team want to waive at the end of this season? Lets take a look:

Dodgers:
How can a playoff team be saddled with so many bad contracts? Between Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, and Andruw Jones, the Dodgers have spent more than $100 million bucks on guys who did almost nothing to get them to the playoffs this season. That fact reflects the strength of the Dodgers player development to have enough quality young players to play in place of these struggling and injured veterans. But make no mistake, all three contracts have been a mistake. So who would the Dodgers most like to release?

Based on performance, it has to be Jones, who hit only .158 this season and is owed almost $18 million dollars through 2009. Yikes. Based on injury history, it has to be Schmidt, who is owed almost $15 million dollars through 2009. Schmidt has failed to remain healthy during his Dodger tenure because of massive shoulder damage. As we all know, shoulder injuries are very bad news for pitchers. Yikes.

However, neither Jones nor Schmidt are my choice here. Logically, the choice has to be Juan Pierre, who is still owed another $28.5 million dollars through 2011. That's an astronomical amount for a fourth outfielder who has no power. And to top it all off, the Dodgers are pretty set in the outfield with Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Manny Ramirez, if they decide to re-sign him. Pierre is merely a waste of space at this point and would do alot better on a different roster.

Padres:
Even though the Padres are trying to cut costs right now, there are really no contracts on this roster that are terrible. The long term deals the Padres have signed have been financially responsible and very team friendly. Amnesty would not benefit the Padres.

Giants:
Barry Zito. Barry Zito. Barry Zito. Barry Zito. Is that really a surprise to anyone?

After the 2006 season, Zito was the most coveted free agent on the market because of his youth, track record, durability, and big curveball. The Giants believed that they were signing the "post Barry Bonds" face of the franchise so they had no problem giving Zito the seven years/$126 million dollars he desired. Zito was paid like an ace, but his performance has been bush league. Over the past two seasons, Zito has won only 21 games, while producing ERAs in the high fours and low fives. Zito has lost a few MPH on his fastball, which has made his breaking pitches much more hittable. And to top it all off, Zito's control still sucks. Walks continue to plague Zito, who can no longer get away with walking so many guys because the rest of his stuff is declined so far. Not a good combo.

All signs point to the decline of Zito's career, which is why the Giants would LOVE to get out from this horrific contract. Zito is still owed another $98 million dollars over the next five years. This contract could realistically harm the Giants for the next decade.

Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are another smaller market team that does not have too many long term contracts worth tons of money. However, the long term contract that the team gave to Eric Byrnes does not look too good right now. Byrnes missed a majority of the season with tears in his hamstrings, which is terrible because a majority of Byrnes game is based on his speed, intensity, and passion. Byrnes is owed another $20 million dollars over the next two seasons, which could be better spent addressing other problem areas for the Diamondbacks.

Rockies:
After the Rockies signed 1b Todd Helton to a 9 year/$141 million dollar contract in 2003, the Rockies thought they had just signed the face of their franchise for the next decade, which is a major accomplishment for the small market club. However, just three years later, the Rockies realized that Helton was on the decline and tried to move him to the Red Sox. A potential deal fell through, but the Rockies have continued to search for any opportunity to move Helton.

Simply put, his contract is killing the team because Helton is not the masher he once was; sure he hits for average, but the power is gone and the injuries are becoming more frequent. The Rockies still owe Helton almost $52 million dollars over the next three years, which is way too much for an aging and declining first baseman.

Phillies Win the Series

In a season that has featured numerous wacky twists and turns, I guess it is only fitting that it ends this way. Congratulations to the Phillies. This team exemplified heart and character while overcoming all obstacles put in their way. I have rooted against the Phillies in every playoff series for obvious reasons, but I must admit that their style of play is both fun to watch and entertaining. Even though the series ended in five, the quality of the games was rather good and MLB should be happy about that.

As much as I hate/despise seeing a rival win it all, they deserved it. Hopefully we'll get ya back for it in 2009.
(Photo; SI)

The Cliff Floyd I Know

Don't know how I missed this on Sunday, but the Rays deactivated Cliff Floyd from their postseason roster because of a sore right shoulder. I'm not surprised in the slightest bit. I love watching Floyd play because:

a. he played harder than any player I've ever seen
b. His swing was absolutely vicious. He smoked balls.
c. The moonball. Wow did his homers go far.
d. He looked like a 60 year old man running the bases. Rays fans know what I'm talking about.

During his tenure with the Mets, somehow Floyd was always injured (besides 2005). Cliffy was never on the field consistently and just when he appeared to hit his stride, his bad knees, back, or hamstrings would miraculously act up. It's like the baseball Gods constantly wanted to tease Floyd (and Mets fans). It's only fitting that Floyd's Mets tenure ended with Floyd reduced to pinch hitting duties in the NLCS because of his hamstring and other various ailments.

I'm pissed that Floyd won't be able to play anymore in the Series because I really thought he was going to have his big moment a la Matt Stairs. Watching Floyd celebrate like a child in a massive dog pile was one of my main motivations for watching game 5. A potential classic moment is now gone. Now all I can hope for is for Floyd to be healthy enough to play cheerleader in the dugout for the young Rays. A World Series ring would be a fitting end to Floyd's somewhat tortured career. Make it happen, Rays.

Don't Trade Holliday

If the Rockies are serious about trading Matt Holliday like the reports state, then they are about to make a huge mistake. I understand all the reasons to trade Holliday: free agent after 2009, wants a huge contract. That thought process is very logical: there is no way in hell that Holliday will sign with us so we better try to get what we can for him now." If that's what GM Dan O'Dowd is thinking, then that's great, I understand.

But there is no doubt in my mind that this move would be a huge mistake. For starters, the Rockies are not far from becoming a contending team. The NL West is absolutely terrible and every team in the division (besides the Giants) has a realistic chance of competing. Dealing Holliday now would ultimately doom the Rockies chances of competing and signal to the fans that the 2009 season is a wash. Considering how weak the division is, it would be irresponsible to move Holliday right now.

Probably the best argument against trading Holliday now is the Johan Santana effect. As we all remember, the Twins traded Santana last offseason to the Mets and by all accounts, did not receive a phenomenal package from the Mets. Teams backed away from Santana because they knew his contract demands and they knew that they might only have him for a season. And even in the case of the Mets, they gave up less player wise because they knew that they would have to spend an additional $140 mil to sign Santana. So simply put, Holliday's contract situation diminishes the potential return that the Rockies could see right now.

But what Holliday's contract does allow, is for GM Dan O'Dowd to attempt to trade his star right fielder in the middle of the season at the trading deadline. Case in point, Mark Teixeira and the Braves. The Braves knew that Tex was not going to sign with them, but they at least gave themselves a chance to compete in the NL East by retaining Tex for the beginning of the season. As it turns out, the Braves stunk, so GM Frank Wren dealt Tex at the end of July for 1B Casey Kotchman, who will be the Braves first baseman for the next few seasons at a cheap price. The Braves were still able to get a good package for Tex because his value spiked because many teams were looking for a stud who could propel them to the playoffs. This will be now different in 2009. Plus, as of right now, I don't think the big guys (Mets, Yankees, Red Sox) will be involved with Holliday. It is very difficult to develop a market for Holliday without the big guys being involved.

One final point on Holliday, GM Dan O'Dowd should look at this year's free agent OF class and immediately drop the telephone. While the class is not deep, it is very top heavy and features players who offer very similar production to Holliday. Outfielders Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, and maybe Bobby Abreu all offer similar production to teams as Holliday. Why would a team give up prized prospects and other young players for Holliday when they could simply throw some big bucks at one of these free agents. Holliday's market is further diminished by the quality free agents in this year's class.

So in short, hold. Give the Rockies a shot to compete, and you know what, if that doesn't pan out, then move Holliday. Worse to comes to worse, the Rockies would gain two high draft picks in the 2010 draft. Moving Holliday now is a terrible idea and needs to be reconsidered.

Clutcher than Clutch

While Bug Selig and the rain ultimately dominated last night's game 5, to me, the most underrated storyline was the two out opposite field single by Carlos Pena. Pena, who had been struggling mightily throughout most of this series, was at the plate with BJ Upton on second, with the Rays down 2-1, and the rain pouring down. Oh yeah, and the Phillies had their ace lefty, Cole Hamels, on the mound. Pena must've had some idea that if this run doesn't score, then the game might never start back up again (Since the two teams played 4.5 innings last night, the game was official).

So with that backdrop, Pena delivered in a big way. On a 2-2 count, Pena lashed a base hit out to left field that ultimately scored BJ Upton, who had no traction rounding the bases through the large puddles and rain. How huge is that? Knowing that the Rays' magical season could come to an end, Pena came up huge to at least extend the impossible dream for another night, or for another few innings. The pressure of that situation can not be underestimated or unnoticed. Simply put, Pena saved the Rays season.

On a side note, could you imagine what would have happened if this game ended after 5 and a half innings because of rain? I'm sure baseball people would have been enormously pissed, not too mention all the good folks in Tampa. I'm sure the Philly Phaithful would have loved it. If that did happen, this World Series would have lost most of it's luster and good feeling.

(Note to the Commish: Teams need to play all nine innings in the postseason. This is not just a suggestion, but a necessity. Make it happen. Rule change!)

The Bottomless Pit in My Stomach is Back

As a Mets fan, I have experienced lots of pain. In my 18 years of being a Met fan, I have had my heart broken more times than I can even remember. Hell, it's come to the point where I almost expect it. It's part of being a Mets fan. The Mets failure over the past three seasons only makes me feel worse around playoff (especially World Series time). I couldn't watch the 2006 World Series because of my Wainwright related nightmares, and watching the Red Sox win was worse than sitting through a address by President Bush about the economy. Awkward, painful, and anger all rolled into one. Not a good combo.

As I think about the possibility of the Phillies win the World Series, all of the pain that the Mets caused me this season returns. I dunno why, but it does. To a certain degree, it's probably because the Phillies were our hated rival in the NL East. The rival transition from the Braves to the Phillies was a relatively quick one because of the demise of the Braves, the resurgence of the Mets and Phillies, and Jimmy Rollins. (Note: To this day, I believe that Rollins announcement that the Phillies were better than the Mets was the turning point in the rivalry. That statement showed that Rollins had some large cahunas and the MVP award simply cemented his place in ballzy hall of fame)

So basically for the last three years, I have hated the Phillies. Especially the last two. Maybe it's the stubborn New Yorker in me, but I always thought of them as number 2. Even this season, when the Mets were decimated by injury and massively struggling, I still thought that the Mets were the better team. That's probably another reason why this hurts so bad. The Phillies were a flawed team that lacked consistency and had limited starting pitching; not too mention that they play in a ballpark built for a little league team. I have beaten this topic to death already, but it's impossible to sit back happily as the team you despise is one win away from winning a World Series (Yankee fans can attest to this). But like the 1996 Yankees, this Phillies team has heart, and no talent evaluator can fully judge the degree to which that helps.

As Joe Blanton rounded third after belting a homerun, I quickly turned off the TV and punched my bed. Another baseball season, more frustration. And again, I am forced to sit back and watch teams I despise (Yanks, Red Sox, Phillies) win World Series.
Yup, the baseball Gods are definitely not Mets fans.

Go Rays.

Worth a Shot: Ruben Gotay

One of my favorite pastimes during the offseason is viciously scouring the transaction pages on the web to find out which guys have been left off the 40 man roster and thereby granted free agency. Whether they are too old, can't play defense, or simply just stink; many guys, who have ability are let go after every season. No, signing these players usually will not cause a stir amongst fans or front office personnel, but very often these guys wind up getting their shot to play elsewhere and wind up thriving. Case in point, Rays 1B Carlos Pena. After being thrown to the scrap heap by the Boston Red Sox, Pena signed a minor league deal with the Rays in 2007 and eventually became the Rays starting first baseman and Comeback Player of the Year. Like so many other professions, all some of these guys need is a chance to show what they can do. Many fail, but the success stories sure are sweet.

So today, after glancing through the minor league transactions, one free agent stuck out to me: 2b Ruben Gotay. As some of you may remember, Gotay had a pretty eventful cup of tea with the Mets in 2007 and actually played pretty darn well. Gotay exhibited a quick bat with some power and often came up big when the Mets needed it the most. Gotay hit .295 for the season with 4 homers, 24 RBI, and 12 doubles. Most impressively, Gotay hit .318 against right handed pitching and produced many quality at bats and walks. Fans and front office personnel could see Gotay's offensive potential, but his horrific defense kept Gotay from claiming the starting job or even a bigger role on the team. After the 2007 season, I thought Gotay was on his way to getting his shot with the Mets because young 2b who can hit don't come along everyday. But the Mets thought otherwise, and eventually elected to hand $26 million bucks to Mr. Slap, Luis Castillo.

Fast forward to spring training 2008, the Mets, faced with a looming roster crunch, put Gotay on waivers and hoped that no one would claim him. Unfortunately for the Mets, the Braves swooped in and claimed Gotay. Gotay lasted the entire year on the Braves roster, but even though the Braves stunk, Gotay was never given a chance to show what he could do. He was relegated to only pinch hitting duties and only started 9 times for the 90 loss Braves. The reasons for Gotay's limited playing time were obvious: inability to field, inability to hit lefties, and the Braves already had a pretty good 2b in Kelly Johnson. In very limited action, Gotay wound up hitting .235 while only coming to the plate 102 times.

So it comes as no surprise that the Braves let go of Gotay. Make no mistake, he is a flawed player who has major limitations. So why take a shot on him? Because second base is a tough position to fill and finding a young second baseman, is nearly impossible. Who knows? Maybe Gotay will never amount to much defensively and maybe left handed pitching will continue to serve as his kryptonite, but his ability to hit right handed pitching well should force teams to give Gotay a look. AL teams should be especially interested because the DH rule adds value to what Gotay can bring to the table. Teams like the Orioles, Athletics, Tigers, and Indians should all take a long look into signing Gotay. At worst, Gotay can be a pinch hitter against right handed pitching and provide quality depth to a organization. At best, he could be a starting second baseman in this league. General Managers should clamor to sign a guy like Gotay: The risk is low while the reward is very high. It doesn't getter much better than that, huh?

Cringing

How do you make a Met fan cringe? Thanks to this insightful suggestion by Jon Heyman, we now know how.

From si.com:

"The Mets, Rangers and Indians are believed to be three teams looking to sign star Rockies closer Brian Fuentes, who had a special season in his walk year. (And he will walk, as the Rockies can't afford him.)
The Cardinals are another team that could badly use the 33-year-old Fuentes. But the Mets are seen by some as the favorite to sign him. The Mets are badly in need of a shutdown closer and view Francisco Rodriguez's asking price of $75 million over five years as too steep considering their $11 million commitment to injured closer Billy Wagner.
Fuentes' take is expected to be along the lines of $36 million over three years, a relative bargain."

Whooaa there Jonny. Yes, the Mets need a shutdown closer as much as any other team in the majors. And sure, Fuentes would be a welcome addition to the Mets given the season that he had in 2008. His 1.54 road ERA signifies how good this guy can be away from Coors Field. But to think that Fuentes is a shutdown closer is a stretch. Remember, only one year ago, Fuentes was so bad as a closer down the stretch that he actually lost the job to Manny Corpas. Fuentes was great in 2008, but the term "shutdown closer" should be reserved for guys like Rivera, Nathan, Papelbon, and Lidge.

And really, is Fuentes a $12 million dollar a year player? I think not. He's a very good relief pitcher, but the only reason he's being mentioned in the same breath as K-Rod is simply because both are free agents at the end of the season. Consider that Joe Nathan receives less than $12 million per season, Lidge will receive slightly more than $12 million per season, and Mariano Rivera, perhaps the greatest closer of all time, receives $15 million per season. Again, Fuentes does not belong in the same breath as any of those guys.

So if the Mets are willing to pay Fuentes $12 million per season, then why is K-Rod for $15 million per season too much? Yes, 5 years is too many, but I'm sure any Met fan would prefer K-Rod at $15 mil, especially if the Mets are willing to go as high as $12 mil on Fuentes. I understand that the market will naturally spike the price tags on these guys, but $12 mil a season for Fuentes is ludicrous. I'd say that's about $4-$5 million more per season than I'd be willing to pay. If some other team is willing to pay that, I'd happily pass. Desperation does not equal insanity.

Then again, if his price goes down, make a push for him Omar, please.

Tale of the Tape (So Far)

Yeah sure, the World Series is tied at 1 game as the series heads back to Philly. I'm actually quite satisfied because the series has been well played and the games have been exciting so far. As a fan of neither squad, that is honestly all I can hope for...besides the Phillies losing! But one thing has stuck out to me more than any so far:
the Phillies are 1 for 28 with runners in scoring position after two games.

Think about that for a second. Now let's digest it.

-Obviously the Phillies are putting runners on base. This is good.
-Obviously the Phillies are failing to bring these runners home. Not so good.
-On the plus side, the Rays pitchers have magically turned into Houdinis. Seriously, every time they needed a big out in game 2, they got it. However, after years of Albie Lopez, Tanyon Sturtze, Doug Waechter, Hideo Nomo, Travis Harper, and Jorge Sosa; I guess they were due.

Yes folks, this is your classic postseason press job. Seen it before many times by my beloved Mets (in September nonetheless) and I know how painful it can be. If this statistic does not improve, then yes, the Phillies will lose. There is no doubt about this.

So to be quite frank, the Phillies are lucky to have split the first two games with the Rays. If it wasn't for the dynamic pitching of Cole Hamels in game 1, the Phils would probably be down 2-0. But now, with the series tied at one a piece, the Phillies need to turn Matt Garza into Dewon Brazelton and Andy Sonnestine into Victor Zambrano. Pateince fellas, remember, you can't hit a five run homer!

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Ryan Dempster

No other free agent has increased his earning potential this season than Ryan Dempster. The change in Dempster from 2007 to 2008 has been both dramatic and improbable. Dempster went from being a shaky and unreliable closer/relief pitcher to dominant and overpowering starter in just one season. Dempster's 2008 campaign was filled with accolades: all star, game 1 starter, 17 wins, and an impressive 2.96 ERA. What a great time for an all-star season! Can you say, Carl Pavano? (Note: Anyone else check out Dempster's 1998 ERA....7.08 ERA in 11 starts!)

The Case for Dempster
-Dominant stuff.
When Dempster is on, he is as good as any starting pitcher out there. Armed with a dynamite fastball and a wicked slider, Dempster managed to strike out 187 hitters in 206 innings pitched. He simply makes hitters look foolish. With stuff like that, Dempster could be a serviceable #1 or a reliable #2 for most teams.

-His age.
Even though it seems liek Dempster has been around forever, he is only 31 years old and is still in his "prime." He could be a great example of guy who has finally figured it out after entering the league at such a young age (20).

-His arm.
Yes, Dempster had Tommy John surgery back in 2003, but that could actually work in Dempster's favor. Usually guys who have a history of arm problems are looked at more cautiously by teams, but Dempster might be an exception. Take into account that before this season, Dempster had previously been a relief pitcher for the past four seasons. That means that his arm might have less wear and tear on it than other starting pitchers who have hundreds of more innings on their arm than Dempster does. His potential to remain in his prime into his mid to late thirties is higher than most pitchers because of this.

-Hard worker.
Apparently, Dempster is somewhat of a legend for his strenuous workout/running program since joining the Cubs. During spring training this year, Dempster showed up to camp in the best shape of his career and prepared his arm for the 200 IP he would accumulate as a starter. Teams have to love this type of attitude and will to want to improve.

-His head.
-On top of being a quality pitcher, Dempster is a quality person and quite hilarious. On top of doing a spot on Harry Caray and by all accounts is a wonderful teammate. Always good to add good people to the organization.

The Case Against Dempster
-Will it last?
Sure Dempster had a great season this year, but he has only had one season in his 10 year career that even comes close to matching the kind of success he had this year (2000). Dempster's career has been a pendulum-with massive highs (2008) and severe lows (1998, 2003) with some frustratingly inconsistent campaigns tricked in (2006, 2007). Was his 2008 success for real? Will Dempster's strikeout rate decline after this season? Only time will tell. Understanding Dempster's long term potential is quite difficult because he has been both a starter and a reliever.

-The walks
Dempster has never been known for his control dating all the way back to his early days with the Marlins. Before this season, Dempster's walk to strikeout rate had always been rather high and his walk rate was around (4.6/9 IP). The difference with Dempster this season was his ability to throw strikes and not try to strike everyone out. In turn, hitters made more contact and Dempster succeeded. Even with all these positives, Dempster turned in a horrible performance during game 1 of the NLDS by walking 7 hitters in just 4.2 innings. So it's clear that Dempster still has some Oliver Perez in him and teams need to be aware of it.

Competition
This year's starting pitching class is actually quite deep with Sabathia, Sheets, Lowe, and Oliver Perez; but Dempster offers something different. He is more consistent than Perez, not injury prone like Sheets, younger than Lowe, and won't cost as much as Sabathia. And too top it all off, Dempster is just as good as any of those guys when he is on his game. I expect the Cubs, Braves, Giants, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rangers to be in on the Dempster sweepstakes. There will be no shortage of suitors. Most teams need at least one or two starters.

Prediction
(4 years/$48 mil)
I admit my prediction here is rather conservative. The only thing that is holding Dempster back from much greener pastures is that he's only done this for one season. There is no doubt that teams will definitely pay for Dempster, but I bet that teams will show some (a very small amount!) fiscal restraint because of his inexperience as a starter.

With that said, his agent should look at the contracts given to:

-Jason Schmidt (3 years/$45 mil)
-Gil Meche (5 years/$55 mil)
-Kevin Millwood (5 years/$60 mil)
-Kyle Lohse (4 years/$41 mil)

Dempster could probably garner anywhere between $40-$60 mil on the open market depending on which teams get involved. Either way, Dempster has positioned himself very nicely for a huge payday after a phenomenal 2008.

SIGNED: 4 years/$52 million
CUBS

Luis Aguayo is No Longer My Homeboy

Sadly, the New York Mets announced today that third base coach Luis Aguayo would be reassigned within the organization (whatever that means) and would no longer be the team's third base coach. I quickly grew fond of Aguayo simply because of his dynamite ability to relay signs (Mets fans know what I'm talking about) and his penchant to viciously wheel runners in from third base. Seriously, there were times where I thought the dude's arm was going to fall off. Aguayo was a very fun third base coach to watch, second only to our beloved Cookie Rojas, who was famously ejected from game 4 of the 1999 NLCS and promptly shoved the umpire. Cooooookie!
I'm very happy to report that the man the Mets hired to replace Aguayo has one of the best names of all time: Razor Shines. Seriously everybody, I think I'm in love already. That's probably the coolest name I have heard since...Cookie Rojas! What is it with these Mets third base coaches and amazing names? (Side note: Cookie Rojas wife is named Candy...I kid you not)

On second though, maybe the loss of Aguayo won't be all that devastating for me. We now have the third base coach with the coolest name in all of baseball...I owe him a shot to win my heart with a fast moving wheel of a right arm.

At Least Ned Colletti is Consistent

I have to give Dodgers GM Ned Colletti for this, at least he's consistent. Colletti has historically refused to give out long term deals that could potentially kill a franchise over the long haul (except for Juan Pierre!). Instead, he chooses to give out less years with more money per season because hey, if these shorter contracts go bad (see Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones), then the franchise will simply be paralyzed, not killed. The Dodgers have been successful with these types of contracts before (see Rafael Furcal, Brad Penny); so it comes as no surprise to me that Colletti is willing to pay Manny Ramirez the big bucks (A-Rod money) for only two or three seasons.

From ESPN.com:

"Ramirez has said publicly that he is looking for a long-term deal. Sources told SI.com that the Dodgers might be willing to pay Ramirez Alex Rodriguez-type money, but only for two years."

Could you imagine if Manny Ramirez received a two year/$54 million dollar contract? I mean, wow, I know the guy is an absolute stud at the plate, but how comfortable would you be paying that much for a guy, who does not have the best track record in terms of playing hard or playing defense.

With that said, in this situation, I think the Dodgers have no choice. If the Dodgers failed to make a major push to sign Manny, they would be crucified in the media. If the Dodgers fail to sign Manny, the media will more than likely bash Colletti and upper management. They need Manny, case closed. Dodger fans need to see Manny's goofy dreadlocks and Turk Wendell like #99 wearing royal blue for the Dodgers next season. And for all my Colletti bashing, I think that this type of deal would be best for both sides. Manny gets his money while the Dodgers get their superstar and a major draw to the ballpark.

If the Dodgers are going to make a real hard push for Manny, this is the way to do it. Be aware though, if some team overwhelms Manny with a 4 or 5 year deal for $100-$125 mil, then pass. It's not worth it.

Yellow Submarine

Sitting somewhere deep in the Rays bullpen lies a relief pitcher who could be the most vital player on the Rays entire roster. He is half man, half submarine, and is absolutely lethal against right handed hitters. Jayson Werth and Pat Burrell, you both are on notice. I hope you both have fun hitting against a pitcher, who almost underhands the ball to home plate as his right arm swings down to the dirt of mound. Ahhh, the beauty of a 77 MPH fastball, submarine style. Of course, the man I'm talking about is Chad Bradford.

Bradford, who was acquired by the Rays from the Orioles in August, is not a household name. Most casual fans have never heard of him except as "that guy who throws funny." However, there is no one else I would want on the mound against a righty in a big spot if I am the Rays. Sure Dan Wheeler has been good this season and yes, Grant Balfour does throw magnificently hard, but neither of these guys can do what Bradford does. I know because I've watched it.

When Bradford was a Met in 2006, he was part of the specialist twin towers featuring himself and lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano. Bradford quickly became a favorite of Mets manager Willie Randolph and Mets fans alike because of his unique throwing style and dominance against right handed hitters. Once the postseason rolled around, Bradford's role changed from a middle reliever to one of the first guys out of the pen. Willie Randolph had that much faith in Bradford. Against the Cardinals in the NLCS, Bradford became Mr. Reliable out of the pen by routinely getting Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, and Yadier Molina out. These guys had no shot against the submarine styles of Chad Bradford. Unfortunately for me, Bradford left the Mets after the 2006 season and quite honestly, my life, and the Mets, have never been the same.

So that's the Bradford I knew. The submariner will go down as one of my favorite relievers of all time and one of the most dependable and reliable against righties. Rays fans, enjoy him while you can. Enjoy watching Bradford submarine a ball over to first base like he did in game 6 of the ALCS. Enjoy watching righties look downright terrible against him. Mr. Maddon, Bradford is golden in a big spot, put him in...have faith. Rays fans will learn to love him like I did.

And trust me, he will come up big in the World Series. Just watch.

Prediction Time!

Rays in 6
MVP: Scott Kazmir (thanks to the baseball Gods)
Likely Goat: Brett Myers

Here's why: The Phillies offense is dynamic and powerful, but the Rays have the pitching and pitching depth to match the Phillies lineup. I love the fact that the Rays have three lefties out of the pen to face Utley and Howard; that is a huge advantage. I still don't trust Brad Lidge in a big spot even though he's proved me wrong all season. I see a long Cliff Floyd homer in Brad Lidge's future. It comes down to pitching and defense, which are Rays strengths. Oh yeah, and the David Price coming out party will continue.

The Scott Kazmir Punch in the Gut

Sometime tonight, probably around 8:07 PM, I will be sitting in front of my TV mercifully listening to Joe Buck and Tim McCarver call Game 1 of the World Series. Buck and McCarver are a painful announcing team to listen too and have made me a big fan of the mute button, but that's not why I'm in pain tonight.

Sometime tonight, probably around 8:21, after Cole Hamels pitches a 1-2-3 top of the first inning, I will be sitting in front of my TV cursing out the Phis. I still cannot believe that the Phillies are in the World Series, while my Mets, who I STILL think were the better team, are home sitting on the couch probably watching FrankTV (thanks TBS). It's not that the Phillies haven't played better than the Mets, but as a fan, I still cannot fathom that the Phillies have made it this far. I feel like a Yankee fan, circa 2004. And to be quite honest, this sucks. But even so, that's not why I'm in pain tonight.

Yes I will be in pain tonight because back in 2004, then Mets GM Jim Duquette decided to trade away future stud SP Scott Kazmir for the carcase known as Victor Zambrano. Duquette apparently thought that young left handed pitchers who throw in the mid nineties with pinpoint control were not worth holding onto because of character concerns and his lack of height. This trade reeked of terrible from the start and left me bordering on insanity. Fast forward to tonight, when Rays ace Scott Kazmir will take the hill against a Phillies lineup that is loaded with left handed bats. Even though Kazmir has been an all-star and the best pitcher on the Rays for the past three seasons, this game, this series will serve to be his coming out party.

Kazmir will dominate tonight. The electric stuff that has been missing over the past few weeks will magically come back. I just know it, the baseball Gods will continue to mock Mets fans by teasing us with what could have been. Kazmir will make Chase Utley and Ryan Howard look foolish while striking out somewhere between 5-8 over 6 innings. The nation will be introduced to a little guy who could very well determine how far the Rays go in the playoffs. The world will be introduced to a budding star in a crappy market, who is littered with talent and has all the potential in the world to become a great pitcher.

Every time I watch a Phillie swing through a Kazmir fastball, every time I watch a Phillie hitter look foolish because of the devastating Kazmir offspeed stuff, the pit in the bottom of my stomach will grow a little bit deeper. For a team that missed the playoffs on game 162 two years in a row, this guy could have been the Mets difference maker. Hell, he would have been our difference maker. Instead of an aging Pedro Martinez, there could have been Kazmir. Instead of an inexperienced Jonathan Niese or Philip Humber, there could have been Kazmir. Could you imagine a rotation of Kazmir, Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez? Dominant!

I am indeed very bitter.

New Team on Board!

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I believe that this site could be a tremendous resource for all of the readers out there, so again, I highly encourage you to stop by. They are very interested in hearing your feedback.

-Josh

So Whose Next?

Watching the Rockies and the Rays make the World Series in consecutive seasons has been thrilling for me. As a fan, these teams seem to enjoy winning more because with every victory they are defying the odds by achieving something that no one, outside of the team, thought was humanly possible. In this era of big spending and outrageous contracts, the Rockies and Rays became competitive out of nowhere thanks to player development and shrewd trades. That's the only way for small/mid market teams to compete against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets. A small market team's payroll is between normally between $40-$60 million dollars while a mid market team has a payroll closer to $80 million while the big guys have payrolls well above triple digits with seemingly no end in sight. The success of small market teams is not only refreshing for the fans, but it is refreshing for baseball economics, which are by nature absolutely ridiculous.

The key is too spend money on player development rather than the absurd contracts given to free agents. The only problem is that this process can take a long time because breaking into the majors is hard work and a constant struggle.

Looking ahead to 2009, I can only wonder what small/mid market team will sprint out of nowhere to capture not only my heart, but an entire fan base. No one saw the rise of the Rockies or Rays coming, which made their success even more enjoyable for their respective long suffering fan bases. The odds are stacked against these teams to compete year after year with the big spending teams, but if the Twins and Athletics have taught us anything, it can be done.

So who will be the next small/mid market team to succeed? Your guess is as good as mine. But if I were too guess, I would have to say the Marlins. The NL East is very weak and the Fish have tremendous leadership that knows exactly what its doing. To squeeze 84 wins out of a $20 million dollar payroll is simply fantastic. Hanley Ramirez is obviously a huge plus here. Plus, the Marlins have great offseason trade chips in Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, and even Josh Willingham, all of whom can potentially bring back either younger players or pitching in return.

I'd like to see which small/mid market team (payroll less than $80 mil) you all feel has the best chance to win in 2009. Please leave your response in the comment section and explain why!

Final Thoughts: 2008 ALCS

-In the end, the Rays ultimately won this series because of their depth. The Rays ability to bring in five or six quality relievers out of the bullpen along with major contributions from Rocco Baldelli, Willy Aybar, Andy Sonnastine, and David Price provided the perfect compliments to a fantastic core.

-The Red Sox lost this series because they became the 2008 Mets. Sure Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, Coco Crisp, Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima and Kevin Youkilis had great series, but who else rose to the occasion? No one. Guys who needed to be big in this series (David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Mark Kotsay) went a combined 12 for 76 with only 2 homers and 5 RBI. The Red Sox had too many holes in their lineup. It is difficult to win with only six or seven guys performing well.

-I understand why Terry Francona did not pinch hit for Jason Varitek in the ninth inning. But not pinch hitting for Varitek in the top of the seventh was simply stupid. With two guys on and two outs, Francona elected to let the Captain hit even though he had only one hit during the entire series. What justification could Francona make? Varitek only hit .201 against righties during the regular season and did not have a hit off of a right handed pitcher during the entire ALCS. Furthermore, Francona had both Ellsbury and Lowrie on the bench at that moment. Yes both guys have looked terrible so far in the ALCS (especially Ellsbury), but both have been major statistical upgrades over Varitek against right handed pitching. What's the rationale here? Did Francona not want to upset Varitek by taking him out of such a big game? Or perhaps, did Francona not want his young guys in such a big spot? I would lean towards the latter, but any explanation is poor in this situation.

-Series MVP Matt Garza was phenomenal. After Dustin Pedroia homered in the first inning, Garza remained in control throughout the entire game by impressively harnessing his emotions to deliver the best fastballs I've seen from him all season. The Red Sox looked terrible at the plate against Garza most of the night. It would've been very interesting to see how long Maddon stayed with Garza if Bartlett had not made that error in the top of the eighth.
-Even though the Rays won, Joe Maddon's bullpen management remains as suspect as ever. For some reason, Dan Wheeler has gone from closer to middle reliever over the course of five playoff games. How did this happen? I haven't the slightest clue. Since the Rays do not have the services of Troy Percival, Wheeler has assumed the closer's role. Or so I thought. In both game 5 and game 7, Madddon brought Wheeler in before the ninth inning when the Rays needed to get outs. While I might make moves like this in Strat-O-Matic, eventually this sort of bullpen management will come back to bite the Rays in the butt. Relievers need definition.

-With that said, definition can be thrown out the window if David Price is on. Price has the composure of a 10 year veteran and the stuff of a young CC Sabathia. Great fastball location to go along with a hard, fast, biting slider that eats up lefties and righties alike. That dude has some dominant stuff and loves to yell into his glove. Does it get any better than that?

-Did anyone else start chanting Alex Gonzalez to their TV after Jason Bartlett made an error in the 8th inning? I sure did.

-Who else loved the potential theifdom of Akinori Iwamura at the end of the Rays victory? Iwamura fielded the pennant clinching ground ball and after he stepped on second base, he proceeded to shove the ball into his back pocket before entering the dog pile. Bold move sir, I hope you still have the ball though.

-Carl Crawford's leap onto the top of the dogpile was epic. Crawford sprints in from left field feverishly shaking his wrist before he leaps over the entire dog pile to gracefully land on top of the team. Easily my favorite moment of the night.
(Photo: AP)