The Market for Ben Sheets

It's hard for me not to feel bad for Ben Sheets. In 2008, Sheets had one of the best seasons of his career by posting 13-9 record with an impressive 3.09 ERA. Sheets was so good that he even started the 2008 all star game at Yankee Stadium. Impressive, huh?

Sheets seemed to be well on his way for the riches of free agency after the season, but Sheets missed important time in September with a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow. Because of the injury, teams have began to shy away from Sheets because of his extensive injury history. Teams view Sheets more as a risk instead of a sure fire ace.

So it comes as no surprise to see that the market has been very slow to develop for Sheets. It's tough to justify taking a significant risk on Sheets when so many teams are struggling to add payroll and deal with a porous economy.

To make matters worse, Sheets is a type A free agent, which means that whatever team signs Sheets will have to give up their first round pick to the Brewers. In this economy, it is tough to justify spending millions of dollars on a veteran player on top of losing a top draft pick. Draft picks have become gold and free agents have been hurt by their "Type A" status.

Where will Sheets end up? Well at this point, it's anyone's guess. But here are some potential landing spots for Sheets:

Rangers: The Rangers pitching woes have been well documented for many years. The Rangers lack significant talent on the pitching front that would enable them to be competitive in the AL West, which is unfortunate because they have a phenomenal offense. Sheets would give the Rangers a true ace that they have been missing for the past decade. A one year deal with lots of incentives would make lots of sense here, but we'll see if the Rangers are willing to spend the big bucks.

Mets: To me, the Mets are the wild card in the Sheets sweepstakes. After missing out on Derek Lowe, the Mets are still at least a quality starter short from being serious competitors in the NL East. Sheets would obviously would add lots of talent to the Mets pitching staff and give them a top flight starter to pair with Johan Santana, but it looks like the Mets prefer Oliver Perez right now. If the Mets get tired of waiting for Perez or decide that his price tag is too high, I could see them making a strong move for Sheets.

Brewers: Sheets would make a lot of sense for the Brewers for a number of reasons. The Brewers do not have to give up a draft pick for Sheets because Sheets pitched for the Brew Crew in 2008. That instantly makes Sheets a very attractive to the Brewers, who are in dire need of a top flight starting pitcher after losing CC Sabathia to the Yankees. Furthermore, Sheets would probably only require a one or two year deal instead of the long term contract many thought he would get during the season.

Astros: Sheets would make so much sense here, but it's probably not happening because the 'Stros don't want to spend money.

Cardinals: Like the Astros, the Cards need a top flight starter to go along with Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals seem unwilling to give any starter a long term deal, but that's no problem for Sheets, who will probably only require a one-two year deal. This would be a great fit for both Sheets and the Cards.

While there might not be much of a market for Sheets right now, I would expect things to pick up in the next week or so. Sheets is a risk no doubt, but this guy can flat out pitch and make whatever team he goes to much better...as long as he's healthy.

Is Ryan Howard Worth $18 Million?

Arbitration can be some pretty sticky business. Anytime you pit employer versus employee with lots of money is involved, it can get pretty ugly.

First baseman Ryan Howard and the Philadelphia Phillies are getting set for what looks like yet another ugly arbitration case. Last season, Howard won $10 million from an arbiter, a record for a player with only two years of service time. That arbitration case was ugly, but this year's case could get downright ridiculous.

Ryan Howard is asking for $18 million big ones.

I'll let everyone soak that in for a second...eighteen million dollars.

That's obviously a lot of money and if Howard wins the case, he will set yet another arbitration record (highest salary awarded) and remain, by far, the Phillies highest paid player.

This is a bold move by Howard. The Phillies offered him $14 million, a number that not too many people would shy away from. However, Howard obviously believes that he deserves to be one of the highest paid baseball players in the game based on his performance and probably his age. Remember that Howard is no spring chicken in baseball years, he is already 29 years old and will not be a free agent until he is 32. Now is the time for him to cash in.

So does Howard deserve the $18 million bucks?

Debatable.

Howard is a phenomenal player and a franchise player. He is one of the best power hitters in baseball and has hit over 45 home runs in each of the past three seasons. Howard absolutely crushed the ball in 2008 to the tune of 48 home runs and 146 RBI. The 2006 MVP has put up historic numbers over his first three full seasons in the major leagues and has shown no signs of slowing up...which is bad for the rest of the National League.

However, Howard's deficiencies are evident. Anyone watching the Phillies will tell you that Ryan Howard is a terrible fielding first baseman and makes even the most routine plays look very awkward.

Also, at the plate, Howard notoriously strikes out a lot, which is not surprising considering how many home runs he hits. But at the same token, Howard's on base percentage has been slipped from .425 in 2006 to a pedestrian .339 in 2008. The best power hitters usually produce an OBP of at least .380 and it is rather shocking how quickly Howard's OBP has fallen.

And finally, Howard has batting average has been a major source of criticism from fans and writers alike. For most of 2008, Howard's batting average hovered in the .220-.230 range before he exploded with a .352 batting average in September. Baseball people would love to see Howard's performance become more consistent because without a respectable batting average, Howard is no better than a very very very good version of Dave Kingman.

Harsh criticism I know, but that's the truth. The Phillies will need Howard's production in 2009 to be more consistent and will need their star to produce a batting average near .280 and an OBP near .400. Considering Howard's ability and potential, there is no reason why he should not be able to put up much better numbers in 2009.

So in conclusion, Ryan Howard is confusing. He is a immensely skilled, but flawed player who is a vital cog in the Phillies machine. Based on his 2008 numbers, I do not believe that he will be successful in getting $18 million bucks (perhaps they can settle somewhere in the $16 million dollar range). Even though his statistics are still great, there is no denying that Howard's numbers have declined in certain areas, which will ultimately weigh heavily in the arbiter's decision.

Inauguration

Baseball will have to take a back seat tomorrow for me, but for a good reason. I will be attending the inauguration in Washington DC hoping and praying that I am able to get a glimpse of....something. I have no ticket and will therefore be waking up in the wee hours of the morning so that I can get as close as I can to history.

Odds are pretty bad (impossible!) that I get close, but hey, it can't hurt to try right?

So tomorrow is likely to be slow, but look for more baseball content either Tuesday night or Wednesday. Enjoy your Inauguration Day and hopefully tomorrow will be the beginning of a brighter day for America.

Barack 'N Roll!

What the Hell Were You Thinking? Kei Igawa Edition

*Over the next couple of weeks, Jorge Says No! will take an in depth look at some of the worst contracts in baseball. We'll evaluate why the player was signed, what went wrong, and future implications of the contract. Behind every bone head decision, there has to be a reason for it...right?*

Oh Yankee fans...you knew this one was coming. If there was ever a contract that defines what the hell were you thinking...this is it. Over the past two seasons, the Yankees have gotten nothing but frustrations and struggles from Igawa, who the Yankees had high expectations for when they signed him in 2007.

Why Sign Igawa: The answer to this one is two fold.

On one hand, the Yankees believed that Igawa could be successful in the big leagues as a middle of the rotation starter. Igawa had been a very successful starter in Japan by winning 86 games in 8 seasons while compiling a 3.15 ERA. Confident that those numbers would translate in the big leagues, Yankees GM Brian Cashman posted $26 million bucks to negotiate with Igawa and eventually signed him to a 4 year/$20 million dollar contract.

On the other hand, the Yankees were probably motivated to sign Igawa because the arch rival Red Sox had just signed their own Japanese import, Daisuke Matsuzaka to a 6 year/$52 million dollar contract. In addition to the $52 million big ones, the Red Sox also big a ridiculous $51 million just to negotiate with Matsuzaka. Oh yeah, did I mention that the Red Sox outbid the Yankees for the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka? This undoubtedly pissed off Yankee management, especially the Steinbrenners.

So what did the Yankees do after missing out on Matsuzaka? Go after Igawa of course, who they believed was the next best option and gave them a stud Japanese pitcher to match up against their arch rival.

What Went Wrong: Ummm, everything. Whoever made the decision to make a serious push for Igawa should be fired...if they haven't been already.

The $46 million dollar bust has been a shell of his Japanese self with the Yankees. Igawa, the former strikeout king in Japan, has not shown the ability to strike out hitters on the big stage and lacks the ability to keep the ball down. Remarkably, in 2007, Igawa surrendered 15 home runs is just 67 innings. Yikes.

Furthermore, Igawa is simply way too hittable. He can get hitters out with his good pure stuff, but the location on his pitches has been terrible during his time with the Yankees. Obviously it is impossible to get hitters out when you cannot locate and Igawa is living proof of that.

Future Implications: Folks, these are the Yankees. They can afford to take risks like this because they have a $180-$200 million dollar payroll. Igawa's contract will not prevent them from going after free agents or hinder them from making yet another big move. Because when it comes down to it, if the Yankees want something, they will probably get it.

So what can the failure of the Igawa contract change for the Yankees? Perhaps now, as we have seen this off season (Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixeira), the Yankees will make a stronger push to acquire the top guys instead of settling with pitchers who they think might be successful. How different would the last two years have been if the Yankees had signed Matsuzaka instead of Igawa? The difference is enormous.

With their vast resources, there is no reason why the Yankees should have to simply settle on probable back end of the rotation starting pitchers.

Lesson Learned: Go big, or don't go at all.

(photo: yankees.com)

Orioles Finally Make Noise

At the beginning of the off season, I pleaded with the Orioles to make some noise in order to further their rebuilding efforts. While the Orioles have yet to make any huge moves outside of trading Ramon Hernandez, there acquisition of Felix Pie today could be a major step in the right direction. Emphasis on could.

Pie is a guy who seems to have all the talent in the world. He has hit for both average and power on the minor league level while exhibiting a good amount of speed and playing fine defense. Last season, Pie hit .287 with 10 homers and 55 RBI at AAA Iowa. Based on his skill set, Pie should be able to develop into a productive major league outfielder, right?

Well, maybe. So far on the big league stage, Pie has disappointed on the big league stage by hitting a meager .223 in 260 major league at bats. Granted that's a small sample size, but keep in mind that the Cubs soured very quickly on Pie based on his limited time in the majors. For all of Pie's potential, there is a reason why Pie has failed so far as a big league player.

But even with his previous failures with the Cubs, this is a great move for the Orioles. Unlike the Cubs, the Orioles are nowhere close to competing in 2009 and need to continue to build towards the future. They can afford to give Pie a full season of playing time to see if he truly is a productive major leaguer or if he's just a toolsy AAAA player.

So consider this a low risk/high reward opportunity for the Orioles. To get Pie, the Orioles gave up nothing of true significance (Garret Olson, Henry Williamson) and in the process they might have picked up their future left fielder. Between Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Pie, the Orioles have the makings of a dynamic, young outfield for years to come...if Pie develops.

Not too shabby for GM Andy McPhail, who has been far too quiet this off season. However, this is exactly the kind of move that I think could really help the Orioles in the future. Definitely a good risk.

Christmas Comes Late For Cole and the Phillies

First Dustin Pedroia. Then Kevin Youkilis. Now Cole Hamels. All rising stars, who now have reasonable long term contracts! Can you feel the excitement!

The Phillies have signed SP Cole Hamels to a 3 year/$20.5 million dollar extension today that locks up their ace through 2011. The deal is somewhat of a landmark because it does not buy out any of Hamels's free agent years and actually leaves Hamels with one more year of arbitration.

"We're very pleased with the fact that Cole has had an opportunity to be rewarded for his accomplishments in the past,'' Hamels' agent, John Boggs, told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. "The contract gives Cole a degree of financial security, and it didn't compromise his last year of arbitration or touch any free agent years, which was our goal.'' ESPN

This deal is great for Hamels. Besides the financial security this deal will bring, he doesn't have to deal with the hassle of arbitration for the next few seasons and he can focus solely on pitching. Plus, this deal does not hinder his ability to maximize his potential earnings a few years down the road in free agency should he stay healthy and productive.

For the Phillies this deal makes a ton of sense as well. For starters, Hamels was likely to earn at least the $20.5 million in arbitration and probably more should he continue to develop as one of the league's best starting pitchers. This deal locks Hamels in to a specific and reasonable contract that will not hinder the Phillies ability to go re-sign other players and go after free agents.

Also, this deal is the ultimate sign of good faith from the Phillies. After all the turmoil the Phillies have gone through with Ryan Howard and arbitration, the Phillies needed to show their rising star just how committed they are. The Phillies did not have to extend this offer to Hamels because they would have retained his rights for the next few seasons, but I'm guessing that they decided to proceed with the offer in the hopes that Hamels would sign with them long term after 2011...hopefully at some sort of discount.

I'll be interested to see the future implications of this deal, but I have no doubt that both the Phillies and Hamels have to be feeling pretty good about this contract.

Now That's a Team Player

Michael Young has finally accepted his move to third base and is no longer seeking a trade. What a quick reversal that was.

"After some careful consideration over the last month or so and in an effort not to let this thing drag out," Young said during a conference call, "I decided to put an end to this and start bearing down on playing third base." ESPN

Hopefully Young recognized that refusing to move to third base was making both him and the organization look bad. And asking for a trade was simply ludicrous; the Rangers had NO chance to move Young, especially with the handsome contract extension the Rangers gave him before the season began. The focus needs to be on pitching, not Michael Young.

In the end, this is a good move for the Rangers. Young was a good defensive shortstop, not a great one, and folks inside the Rangers organization seem to love Andrus's defensive potential.

"I heard he made a lot of improvements during the season, and it won't take him long to learn things if he isn't quite ready," Chris Davis said. "He's definitely an electric player. He can do some amazing things defensively. He was out there almost every time I was taking extra hacks, trying to get his mechanics ironed out and working on his fielding. You don't have to question his work ethic."

Who knows? The Rangers could have the next Omar Vizquel on their hands. Let's hope for their sake they do, because their pitching needs all the help they can get.

So as a Rangers fan, you have to feel good that this situation is over. Having the face of the franchise spouting off about how the organization mistreated him is never a good thing. Plus installing Andrus as the starting shortstop is an important step for the future of the Rangers, who need to evaluate if this guy is really their shortstop of the future. The Rangers likely aren't going anywhere this year (unless they get some pitching) so having Andrus play shortstop now is a good move.

Now that Young has been taken care of, it's time to go after Ben Sheets, Jon Daniels. Make it happen.

What the Hell Were You Thinking? Vernon Wells Edition

Probably the most controversial contract that we will be discussing. Vernon Wells is not a bad baseball player. Quite the contrary actually, Vernon Wells is a pretty damn good baseball player, who brings a lot to the table. With that said, there is no way that Vernon Wells will ever come close to earning the 7 year/$126 million dollar contract that the Blue Jays foolishly handed out to him. So what the hell were you thinking, Toronto?

Why re-sign Wells: By the end of the 2006 season, Wells had established himself as one of the most consistent performers in the American League. Wells had developed into an all star player for a Blue Jays team that lacked a powerful force on the offensive end. Wells had his best season in 2006 by hitting 32 home runs, driving in 106 runs, and winning his third consecutive gold glove.

So on paper, it seemed to make sense to re-sign Vernon Wells. The guy seemed to be in the prime of his career at 28 years old and was the lone true star the Blue Jays had not named Roy Halladay. With the Texas Rangers rumored to have heavy interest in Wells, the Blue Jays became fearful about losing their star player. The Blue Jays could not afford to let Vernon Wells get away, but unfortunately they dramatically overpaid to retain their star.

What went wrong: Injuries. Over the past two seasons, Wells has dealt with a variety of ailments ranging from shoulder issues to a fractured wrist. As a result, Wells has not performed like the all star that Blue Jays came to adore. Wells has failed to hit more than 20 homers in each of the last two seasons and has seen his range in center field mysteriously fade away.

Future Implications: Wells is essentially an above average player at this point. He can still hit for average, hit for some pop, and play solid defense in center field.

However, this is a huge problem for the Blue Jays, who are paying Wells to be the face of their franchise and a great player, not just a good player. Wells has only been able to maintain an elite level of production in two seasons throughout his career (2003, 2006) so I am skeptical to see if the Blue Jays will ever see that kind of production from Wells again. Wells is now 30 years old and coming off two seasons where he dealt with serious injuries; all of which should be very worrisome for Blue Jays fans.

And sorry Blue Jays fans, but the news only gets worse from here. The contract that Wells signed back in 2006 was heavily back loaded and the Blue Jays will not feel the full effect of this contract until 2011 when Wells's contract jumps from $12.5 million to a whopping $23 million.

Even worse, the Blue Jays will pay Vernon Wells over $20 million per season from 2011 until 2014. For a team with a $80-$100 million dollar payroll, the Vernon Wells contract could have a catastrophic impact on the Blue Jays for years to come. Wells's contract could prevent the Blue Jays from adding significant pieces to their young, talented, and injury prone roster. I find it hard to believe that the Blue Jays will actually compete over the next few seasons if they do not get all-star production from Vernon Wells.

Lesson Learned: Be very careful when signing players to long term contracts that are worth more money that some states. Unless the player is a guaranteed franchise player or superstar, it's probably best to hold off on the ridiculous contract, especially if you're a small(er) market team. Because again, the Yankees can get away with having a Vernon Wells (or two) on their roster, but the Blue Jays will likely be stuck in mediocrity or even the AL East cellar if they do not get significant production from Vernon Wells.

MLB 09 The Show: Josh Hamilton?

For video game aficionados like myself (or so I'd like to think), the news that Dustin Pedroia will be on the cover of MLB 2K9 should not come as a surprise. The undersized second baseman from the Boston Red Sox was the heart and soul of the 2008 Red Sox and put up big numbers to boot (.326, 17 HR, 54 doubles, 118 runs). Not surprisingly, Pedroia won the 2008 AL MVP award for his stellar play and inspired performance.

So by now it's been established that Pedroia is very deserving candidate and has every right to be on the cover. However, I must admit that the selection of Pedroia disappointed me because there was someone else who obviously deserved to be front and center.

Josh Hamilton.

No other athlete that I can remember defied both rational thought and the laws of physics in the same season. 2008 was clearly the year of Josh Hamilton.

Hamilton turned what every cynic and critic thought was impossible into the improbable by coming back from severe drug addiction to become one of the best players in the American League. Starting for the first time in his major league career in 2008, Hamilton put up huge numbers by hitting 32 home runs and driving in an incredible 130 RBIs. It's impossible to fathom that Hamilton never played above AA ball (besides 40 ABs in 2007) and is putting up such ridiculous numbers in the majors.

And as we all know, Hamilton turned the home run derby at Yankee Stadium into his own coming out party by hitting a miraculous 28 home runs in the first round. But folks, these were not your ordinary home runs. These were long, majestic fly balls that seemed to have no place to go but up and out. Hell, a few of Hamilton's big flies came close to going over the old Yankee Stadium. To me, it was the most amazing moment of the 2008 season and left me with chills going down my spine.

If there was ever a time to make Hamilton the cover boy, now would have been the perfect time. And why not, the guy transcended what everyone thought was possible in both life and on the diamond and truly deserves the honor.

But I have my doubts that Hamilton will ever get such an accolade. After all, this is a former drug addict we're talking about, whose body is covered with various tattoos and symbols. While I personally would have no problem with that, I'm sure some of the suits at Sony would have a tough time having a former drug addict on the cover. As we all know, image sells and Sony will do just about anything to protect their brand and their products.

This piece goes far beyond the video game. I just hope that Hamilton gets the recognition that he deserves in the future. Just because Hamilton is a former drug addict, I hope that he receives the same marketing opportunities that the other big stars (Pujols, Jeter, Rodriguez, Mauer, Braun) get. Whether the marketers like it or not, Hamilton is a budding superstar in baseball and has captured the imagination of baseball fans all over the planet because of his story and his amazing talent.

Did the Cubs Overpay for Ryan Dempster?

As soon as free agency began, the Cubs re-signed SP Ryan Dempster to a 4 year/$52 million dollar contract. The 31 year old Dempster was coming off the best season of his career in 2008 when he finished sixth in the Cy Young award voting and was a consistent force at the top of the Cubs rotation.

So paying Dempster $13 million per season sounds pretty reasonable right?

Well, I'm not so sure about that. I'm rather torn on the contract.

On one hand, Dempster was one of the best starting pitchers in the National League in 2008 and if he duplicates that performance, there is no doubt that he will be worth every penny of that deal. On paper, the Cubs are a very strong team with Dempster atop their rotation and they should be one of the favorites to win the World Series in 2009.

But now that Derek Lowe has signed with the Atlanta Braves for 4 years/$60 million, can we still say that Dempster's contract is a good one? Very debatable.

For starters, Dempster was signed well before any other starting pitcher had established the market for starting pitchers. You have to remember at the beginning of free agency both Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez were looking for deals somewhere in the $70-$80 million dollar range. The market has obviously taken a dramatic hit since then and both Lowe and Perez will fall short of their intended goals. If the Cubs had been more patient with Dempster, I wonder if his price too would have fallen. Would 4 years/$40 million have been unreasonable?

So if AJ Burnett is worth $80 million, Derek Lowe is worth $60 million, and Oliver Perez remains unsigned, can we honestly say that Ryan Dempster is worth $52 million? Probably not. Dempster has only had one great season in the bigs as a starter, while the other three guys have been far more consistent (even Oliver Perez), reliable, and have more experience as starting pitchers. That's not to say that Dempster will not maintain his 2008 performance, but as far as free agency goes, the Cubs gave Dempster a huge contract based on one season. That's a fact.

If you had told me at the start of free agency that Ryan Dempster would have gotten a 4 year/$52 million dollar contract, I would not have been surprised. But with the economy in a dramatic downturn and the starting pitching market at somewhat of a standstill, I'm surprised that the Cubs gave Dempster such a big contract. Maybe I'm just skeptical that he will be able to repeat his 2008 performance, but I would bet my money on Lowe and Perez over Dempster.

In this market, it's become tough to justify paying a guy based off of one good season. We'll see if the Cubs start to feel the effect of this deal in 2009 or even down the road, but I wonder if they could have done better by waiting. It's tough to take a big risk with the market in such bad shape. I think giving ace money to a guy who has only performed at a high level for one season is quite a risk .

Bad Time to be a Free Agent Middle Reliever

If you look at the list of free agents still available on the free agent market, one group in particular is rather untapped: the middle relievers. Quality relief pitchers like Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, Brian Shouse, Juan Cruz, and Brandon Lyon all remain unsigned and do not appear close to signing anytime soon.

Over the years, we have become accustomed to watching panicked teams overpay average middle relief pitchers hoping to the baseball Gods that their bullpen will magically be shored up. Teams have overvalued middle relief pitchers for years and usually the best middle relief pitchers on the free agent market have no problems finding both work and a suitor who is willing to vastly overpay.

But not this year.

Because of the economy, teams are not flocking to sign the best middle relief pitchers on the market. Instead, teams are opting to go for low cost signings, younger players, or even trades. There are more teams than ever who are unwilling to commit $8-$12 million bucks on a position that often reeks of inconsistency and volatility. As a result, Juan Cruz, Joe Beimel, Brandon Lyon, and Will Ohman are having a tough time garnering up the interest because they have priced themselves out of so many teams.

The funny thing is that there are teams out there who are in dire need of middle relief. The Tigers, Mets, Brewers, Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals, etc. all have a varying degree of need for middle relief and normally would have jumped at the chance to go after the best middle relievers. However, this market has turned the usually free spending teams into frugal, penny-pinchers who need to use their limited funds wisely.

I never thought I'd say this, but it now looks like the agent for Jeremy Affeldt and Kyle Farnsworth should get a big gold star. It's almost inconceivable to me that both of those guys (especially Farnsworth) got two year contracts almost immediately while guys who had better seasons and are held in a higher regard are left waiting. Getting a contract completed early in the off season now appears to have been the right move given how poorly the market is shaping up.

In a way, you have to feel sorry for these guys. They performed well in their free agent year and in most years that would be enough to get the big contract that so many middle relief pitchers never come close to receiving. However, the market is simply not going to allow these guys to capitalize on their success. And that my friends is sad, even in the baseball world where money is thrown around like candy.

So if I was going to advise any of these guys (Cruz, Lyon, Shouse, Ohman, Beimel, etc.) I would tell them to seriously consider taking a one year contract loaded with incentives. This is the best way to go because if he performs well, the money will be very good and there is always the potential for a big contract in 2010 as a free agent.

There is obvious risk involved with this scenario though. Middle relief pitchers, unlike any other position in baseball, are notoriously inconsistent and often follow up a great season with a terrible one. There is significant risk involved in taking a one year deal, but I'm not sure many of these guys will have a choice.

So what should these middle relievers (Beimel, Cruz, etc.) do? Be patient and try to get lucky with a big contract or take the one year deal and try again in 2010?

How Strange Is This Picture?

John Smoltz with a Boston Red Sox cap on his head. Soak that in for a minute. For the past 21 seasons, Smoltz has not only been with the Atlanta Braves, but he has been the face of the Atlanta Braves.

I guess he's technically still with the Braves...the Boston Braves that is. I know...lame.

Good luck in your new digs Smoltzie and thank God you're out of the NL East. You were an absolute beast against my Mets and a terror on the mound.

What do you think...will Smoltz be successful in Boston? Will he be a starter or reliever?

Will the Braves Compete With Derek Lowe?

Ahhhh, the $60 million dollar question. How much will this move impact the Braves?

In a nutshell, it helps them tremendously. Even though Derek Lowe is not your typical ace like Johan Santana or Cole Hamels, he will provide the Braves with a steady, consistent force at the front end of their rotation. Lowe should be a virtual lock to give the Braves 30+ starts with an ERA somewhere in the 3.40-3.70 range, which is exactly what the Braves need.

The signing of Lowe will also take the burden off of Javier Vazquez, who should never be counted on to lead a rotation in any capacity. Vazquez will now slid in nicely behind Lowe in the rotation to give the Braves two inning eaters at the front end of the rotation. If Jair Jurrjens and new addition Kenshin Kawakami perform as expected, then the Braves could have the makings of a really nice starting rotation.

However, the NL East is still one of the tougher divisions in baseball. The Mets and Phillies have improved drastically over the past three seasons and both appear ready to compete for a championship in 2009. Can we now include the Braves in the discussion with the Mets and Phillies?

I still say no. Even though Lowe makes the Braves a much better team, I doubt that he is the final piece of the puzzle. The Braves still have major questions marks about the back end of their bullpen and their outfield, which currently has Jeff Francoeur and a bunch of guys that no one has ever heard of. Speaking of Francoeur, will he bounce back in 2009? Can he take a freakin' walk?

And does anyone really think that Chipper Jones will stay healthy this season? It's incredible to think that Jones has not played in more than 140 games in a season since 2003. If the Braves are going to compete, Chipper has to be healthy.

So right now the Braves have too many question marks to be considered a serious contender. However, they are dangerous. They have the makings of a good team and have a solid lineup, but they will need their young guys in the outfield to step up and pray to the baseball Gods that Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, and especially Chipper Jones stay healthy.

It's going to be hard to justify this move if the Braves do not seriously compete in 2009 or 2010. It's unrealistic to think that Lowe will be able to put up these numbers when he is 39 or 40, so the next two seasons have to be the time when the Braves go for it. So I look for the Braves to remain aggressive in free agency and look to sign a corner outfielder and a quality arm in the bullpen. Neither move will be expensive, but the Braves need to continue to make moves if they want to compete in 2009.

Thanks Atlanta

It comes as no surprise to see that Derek Lowe signed with the Atlanta Braves this morning. Lowe and the Braves came to terms on a 4 year/$60 million dollar contract that makes Lowe the Braves highest paid player. The Braves have had a very difficult off season already between their failed attempt to land Jake Peavy, missing out on Rafael Furcal, and letting John Smoltz sign with thr Red Sox. They needed a splash.

And a splash is exactly what Lowe will give them. For $15 million per season, the Braves not only acquired a big time pitcher, but they also acquired a name, who can help ease the blow of losing Smoltz.

For the 36 year old Lowe and agent Scott Boras, this contract has to make them feel vindicated in some way. For so long all we kept hearing about was how the only offer on the table for Lowe was 3 year/$36 million from the Mets and that no other team was showing much interest. Amazingly, Boras was able to get $24 million more from the Braves even though Lowe had no other offers in the $40-$60 million dollar neighborhood. The Braves became desperate for a splash and played right into Boras's hand.

As for the rest of the league, this contract will help set the bar for the rest of starting pitchers out there, namely Oliver Perez. There is no doubt now that Perez and agent Scott Boras will be looking for a deal similar to Lowe's, even though there has limited interest in Perez. The Mets apparently offered Perez a 3 year/$30 million dollar contract that seemed to be pretty fair before today, but after hearing Lowe's contract, there is no way Boras and Perez will accept that. It will probably take a contract similar to Lowe's, in both years and dollars, for the Mets to land Perez now.

So it's now pretty unrealistic to think that the Mets could re-sign Perez to some bargain contract all because of Derek Lowe and the rival Atlanta Braves. Thanks guys!

So for my Mets, it's time to up the offer. With Lowe now out of the mix, we need to solidify the rotation by locking up Ollie before it's too late. We're probably competing against ourselves to sign Perez so it's important to remain patient and not panic with something stupid.

The Market For Orlando Hudson

As the off season began, 2B Orlando Hudson looked to be in a good position to cash in on two productive seasons with the Diamondbacks. Hudson was by far the best second baseman available on the free agent market and seemed to have a laundry list of teams preparing to go after him.

However, almost two months into free agency, Hudson remains unsigned with no suitors in sight. It now seems unlikely that Hudson will receive the lucrative long term deal that he seemed certain to receive when free agency began,

So where have all the suitors gone?

Mets: Still have Luis Castillo. Until they move Castillo, Hudson will remain a pipe dream

Yankees: Showed interest at the beginning of free agency, but shied away after acquiring Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira.

Indians: Acquired Mark DeRosa instead. No need for Hudson.

Nationals: The wild card in the Hudson sweepstakes. After losing Teixeira, the Nationals could use a splash to start building a winner in DC. They have the money to spend, but are they interested?

Cardinals: Have a glaring hole at second base, but I doubt they have the money to make a push for Hudson.

Giants: Another team with a glaring hole at second base, but once again, do they have the money to spend? Hudson would be a good fit here, but the Giants need more pop than Hudson can provide.

So as you can see folks, the list of suitors for Hudson has diminished. There is no team with a glaring need for Hudson who also has a boatload of money to spend. Hudson still needs to remain patient and wait for potential opportunities to arise, but taking a one year deal should not be out of the question at this point.

And finally, I think that Nationals have to make a move on Hudson. He is a high character guy, is a solid hitter, plays gold glove defense, and will come at an affordable rate. The Nationals could probably come to terms with Hudson on a two or three year deal for roughly $18-$30 million, which would be perfect for the rebuilding Nationals. They need to find a leader who can help shape their identity and start bringing wins to the District before fans completely forget that the Nationals exist.

That guy is Orlando Hudson.

Rickey Henderson Cannot Believe that Rickey Henderson Only Got 94.8%

Both Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice were elected to the hall of fame today. Henderson was an obvious lock to be enshrined in Cooperstown while Rice made it on his fifteenth and final try. Neither selection surprises me at all. Congratulations to both guys for their accomplishments and great careers.

But what does surprise me is this: how in the world did Rickey Henderson garner only 94.8% of the vote? By no means is 94.8% something to scoff at, but Henderson was the definition of a first ballot hall of famer. I don't care if you loved him, hated him, or loathed him for talking about himself in the third person; but there is no excuse why Henderson should not have been on 100% of the ballots.

Because seriously there is not a sportswriter out there who can make the argument that Rickey Henderson did not deserve to be in the hall of fame based on the numbers. Henderson is the all time leader in stolen bases, runs, and ranks second to only Barry Bonds in total walks. Those statistics speak volumes into just how great of a player Henderson was.

How in the world could someone not vote for this guy? Well, there are only a few options:

1. Didn't like Rickey

2. Wanted to ensure that no player went into the hall unanimously

3. On crack

If a writer did not like Rickey, that's fine. Henderson was quite an enigma throughout his career and seemed to be VERY into himself. And on top of that, he had strange mannerisms and sayings that make me understand why a writer might not like Henderson.

But that's still no excuse for not voting for him. If these writers cannot set aside their personal beefs, then they do not deserve to have a ballot. Simple as that. With a hall of fame class that was this weak, there is no reason why any writer should have left Henderson off the ballot because they did not like him. Henderson was head and shoulders above everyone else in this class and will undoubtedly be immortalized for his many accomplishments.

Hall of fame voting is not about the writers. It's about the players. If the writers who vote cannot understand this, then they should have their right to vote removed.

And if anyone did not vote for Rickey based on the unanimous hall theory, then they too deserve to have their ballot removed. Writers are not voting here to maintain the sanctity or purity of the hall of fame; instead, writers are voting to determine who deserves entry into immortality
based on their numbers or contribution to the game. That's what the voting should be all about.

So for the 28 of you who did not vote for Rickey Henderson, shame on you. Your right to vote for the hall of fame should be revoked because it's obvious that you have no idea what your talking about. Hopefully every writer who did not vote for Henderson is publically grilled and embarrassed like Corky was.

With all this said, I cannot wait for the Rickey Henderson hall of fame speech! If that's not must-watch-TV, I don't know what is!

Over/under on how many times he refers to himself in the third person during the speech: 42.

Any other guesses?

What the Hell Were You Thinking? Barry Zito Edition

*Over the next couple of weeks, Jorge Says No! will take an in depth look at some of the worst contracts in baseball. We'll evaluate why the player was signed, what went wrong, and future implications of the contract. Behind every bone head decision, there has to be a reason for it...right?*

Back in 2006, Barry Zito was the most coveted starting pitcher on the free agent market. Zito was only 28 at the time and many teams believed that Zito's best days were still ahead of him. My beloved Mets made a strong run at Zito, but wisely and thankfully, GM Omar Minaya refused to go beyond 5 years on Zito. Sigh of relief on that one.

Why Sign Zito: Zito brought a lot to the table for the Giants. GM Brian Sabean understood that the Giants needed to have a post Barry Bonds franchise player and Zito seemed to be a welcome fit into that role. Zito had played and thrived in the Bay Area for his entire career with the A's so the Giants already knew that he could survive in the environment.

"We view Zito as a franchise player, and we'll certainly need one when Bonds goes," a Giants source told The San Francisco Chronicle. ESPN.com

Signing Zito would have given the Giants a young front line starter, who they believed could anchor their up and coming rotation for the next decade. Along with Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and eventually Tim Lincecum, the Giants believed that with Zito as their ace, their rotation would be one of the best in baseball for years to come.

So the Giants went above and way beyond to make sure that Zito was a Giant. They signed Zito to a 7 year/$126 million dollar contract, which was the longest and richest contract (at the time). Little did they know just how badly this deal would work out for them.

What Went Wrong: In his first two years with the Giants, Zito's performance has taken a dramatic turn for the worse. Instead of throwing a fastball in the low 90s, Zito has been consistently clocked in the mid 80s, which takes away the unpredictability of his off speed stuff. Also, Zito can no longer use his trade mark curveball as an effective out pitch. And to make matters worse, Zito's control has taken a turn for the worse (102 BBs in '08), which is saying something because his control has never been good.

No one really knows what's wrong with Zito. Could it be his mechanics? Could it be mental? Could it be the contract? Either way, it's rather puzzling to watch a 30 year old former ace mysteriously lose a few MPH on his fastball and implode like Zito has.

Future Implications: This is the kind of contract that could set back a franchise for the next 5-10 years. As I look at the Giants roster, without Zito, they are a young and competitive team. However, Zito's contract might prevent them from seriously competing in 2009. Instead of paying a 30 year old 5th starter $18 million bucks, they could be using that money to upgrade their ineffective offense by signing Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn.

Instead, the Giants will probably be forced to refrain from making the big signing that could ultimately launch them atop the NL West.

Giants officials should be praying to every God they know that Zito recaptures his old form. Such a transformation is highly unlikely at this point, which makes the Giants' outlook for the next few seasons look awfully bleak. They now have roughly 15%-20% of their team payroll committed to a rapidly declining starting pitcher, who they have no idea what kind of performance they can expect. That's a dire situation if I ever saw one.

Lesson Learned: Be very very very cautious when giving out long term deals. There were warning signs about Zito from the beginning (high WHIP, lots of walks, increasing ERA) that should have alerted Giants officials that Zito was no longer an ace or even front end starter. However, the Giants brought into the hype and as a result, the franchise will be in deep trouble if Zito continues to decline.

Good Luck With That, Jon Daniels

Yikes, chaos reigns in Ranger-ville.

Apparently, shortstop and face of the franchise Michael Young requested a trade because he was unhappy that the Rangers wanted him to move to third base. The Rangers have a number of intriguing shortstop prospects (i.e Elvis Andrus) who are capable of starting in 2009, which is why the Rangers want to move Young to third.

"Our desire is for Michael to play third base," Daniels said. "Obviously though, he's got to buy into what we're doing." ESPN.com

Anyone else find it interesting that the Rangers are asking a gold glove winner to switch positions? Young is a very good shortstop and probably believes that his best chance to help the team is at shortstop. For a noted team player, requesting a trade is certainly an interesting route to take.

So what now? Can the Rangers actually move Young?

Probably not. The Rangers signed Young to a 5 year/$80 million dollar contract extension that is set to kick in this season. Young is a fine player who can hit over .300 in his sleep and a wonderful guy to have in the clubhouse, but it is hard to justify paying a 32 year old shortstop with limited power $14 million bucks next season, especially in this market.

So I expect the trade options for Young will be limited. There are so few teams right now who need a shortstop and even fewer teams who can actually afford to take on Young's contract that a trade seems very unlikely.

With that said, I will throw out one scenario. What do you think about this?

Rangers get:
OF Vernon Wells (7 years/$126 mil)

Blue Jays get:
SS Michael Young (5 years/ $80 mil)
SP Kevin Millwood (2 years/$23 mil) *POSSIBLE VOID AFTER 2009*

There are obviously several obstacles (Wells's no trade clause, Millwood's limited no trade clause, Young's trade protection in 2009), but this deal actually makes some sense. The Blue Jays have three very good young outfielders who are very capable of playing everyday, but are missing a solid shortstop. Young would be a perfect fit, while Millwood would give the Jays some depth in the rotation until Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum recover from injuries.

I'm not saying that the Blue Jays would become instant competitors, but it would show their fans that they want to win and improve the roster.

For the Rangers, this deal would rid them of the a possible standoff with Young and rid them of the horrible Millwood contract. They would add a very good player in Wells, who could give Josh Hamilton some needed protection and play a gold glove caliber center field. Wells may no longer hit 30+ home runs, but he still has the ability to be a productive outfielder.

Wells's contract is one of the worst in baseball especially because it is heavily back loaded, but it could give the Rangers some much needed short term financial flexibility to go after Ben Sheets. Wells's contract does not jump to $23 million until 2011, which means that the Rangers would actually shred payroll in the short term by trading away Young and Millwood.

So how about that everybody, does that deal make sense or am I crazy?

Does Tim Redding Equal Oliver Perez?

Yesterday, the Mets and Tim Redding came to terms on a 1 year/$2.25 million contract that could be worth up to $3 million if incentive bonuses are reached. Redding, a right handed pitcher, will likely be the #5 starter for the Mets, who are still actively pursuing another starter.

Redding will give the Mets a veteran presence at the back end of the rotation and another veteran starter who has been successful in the majors before. Last season, Redding finished with a porous 4.95 ERA, but keep in mind that Redding had a 3.64 ERA in 2007 and a 3.85 ERA in the first half of 2008. When Redding is on, he is a quality pitcher. This is a low risk, high reward move for the Mets, who need all the quality starters they can get their hands on.

Redding's propensity to give up the long ball is somewhat concerning, but I like the idea of adding another starter who can give the Mets quality innings. Let's just hope that Redding stays healthy and consistent.

Even though Redding is only going to be their fifth starter, he could have a major impact on how the Mets decide to proceed with the rest of their rotation. The Mets now only have one left handed pitcher in their rotation (Johan Santana), which could leave them vulnerable to the Phillies power hitting left handed hitters (Howard, Utley, Ibanez). Adding another left handed starting pitcher would give the Mets a better chance to have a favorable match-up against their arch rival.

So what does all this mean? I think that Omar Minaya should back off his pursuit of Derek Lowe. With rumors swirling that the Braves are going all in on Lowe, now would be a good time for the Mets to step aside and focus their efforts on Oliver Perez, who is only 27 and great against lefties. Lowe would be a wonderful addition to the Mets rotation, but at this point I'm skeptical about giving him a fourth year or another $10-$15 million more than the Mets original offer (3 years/$36 million).

The Mets will be able to win with either Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez. But with Redding now in the fold, the Mets would benefit from a more balanced rotation and adding another left handed pitcher.

What the Hell Were You Thinking? Carlos Silva Edition

*Over the next couple of weeks, Jorge Says No! will take an in depth look at some of the worst contracts in baseball. We'll evaluate why the player was signed, what went wrong, and future implications of the contract. Behind every bone head decision, there has to be a reason for it...right?*

There is no doubt that Carlos Silva was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2008. The former Phillie and Twin hit unspeakable lows as he only won four games and produced a 6.46 ERA. One one year into a 4 year/$48 million dollar contract, Silva looks like a shell of his former self and a massive waste of money. So what the hell were you thinking Seattle?

Why Sign Silva: Coming off a season in which the Mariners exceeded expectations, then GM Bill Bavasi wanted to solidify the back end of his rotation and went hard after Silva. Known to be an innings eater with great control, Bavasi thought Silva would slot in nicely behind Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn.

“We feel that signing Carlos addresses one of our main needs, adding a quality arm to the starting rotation,” general manager Bill Bavasi said. “Our goal heading into the offseason was to identify the best available pitcher on the free agent market and we feel we got the best one.” MSNBC

Yes, you read right, Bavasi thought Silva was the best free agent pitcher on the market. Last seasons free agent class of starting pitchers was one of the worst in years. Want proof? Other than Hideki Kuroda, Silva was the only starting pitcher to receive a contract for more than one year. How amazing is that?

And even before his miserable performance in 2008, this contract appeared to be for way too much. This contract proved just how desperate Bavasi was to bring a winner to Seattle.

What Went Wrong: To put it bluntly, everything. Silva still did not walk anybody, but he became one of the most hittable pitchers in the league as his classic sinker remained flat as Silva struggled to keep the ball down. It was by far the worst season of Silva's career. Instead of stability, the Mariners wound up with a batting practice pitcher who could not get anyone out and struggled to pitch deep into games.

Future Implications: Look what your stuck with for the next three years Seattle: an overweight sinkerball pitcher, who has no sinker! Silva is still owed roughly $36 million bucks, which the Mariners will probably get very little return on. If he continues to struggle, the Mariners would be better off cutting Silva and letting a young pitcher take his spot in the rotation. We're approaching Russ Ortiz territory here people.

This contract will be a major burden for the Mariners over the next three seasons. If the Mariners have a payroll of roughly $100 million in 2009 then Silva will account for roughly 10% of that. Hard to move forward when you have a dead weight like Silva taking up so much of the payroll.

Lesson Learned: Do not overspend on overweight pitchers who cannot strike out hitters and must rely on their control and the defense behind them to be successful. Seems obvious, but as Mariners fans will note, nothing is obvious for the often oblivious Bill Bavasi.

The Mets and Andy Pettitte: Why Not?

With the Yankees and Andy Pettitte struggling to come to terms on a contract, it appears as though now would be the perfect time for another team to swoop in and offer Pettitte a contract.

Enter the Mets.

On the surface, Pettitte to the Mets makes little to no sense. The Mets seem to be focusing their efforts on Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez, both of whom performed better than Pettitte did in 2008. Also, Pettitte's numbers have been declining over the past few seasons and he can no longer be considered a top flight starter.

So why should the Mets make a run at Pettitte?

For starters, the Mets need a left handed pitcher. The arch rival Phillies are loaded with power hitting left handed hitters, who absolutely crush right handed pitching. In order to gain the upper hand against the Phillies, the Mets need to have pitchers who perform well against left handed pitchers. And whatdya know, Pettitte held left handed hitters to a minuscule .203 clip in 2008. That's the kind of production from a back end starter that could really benefit the Mets.

In addition, Pettitte is a near lock to give the Mets roughly 200 innings in 2009. That would give the Mets rotation another anchor to go along with Santana and Pelfrey and a consistent force in the back end of the rotation.

Most importantly, Pettitte would ease the burden from the Mets bullpen, who too often in 2008 were forced to pitch three or more innings in every game. As a fan, there are only so many times I can watch Pedro Feliciano enter a game! Having a fresh bullpen is vital to the team's success, especially in preventing late season collapses.

And finally, I think that Pettitte would fit great at Citi Field. The initial indications are that Citi Field will be a hitter's park, which means that fly ball pitcher will not have the same success in Citi Field that they did at Shea Stadium (I'm looking at you Oliver Perez). Throughout his career, Pettitte has been known as a ground ball pitcher, which could produce success at Citi Field. Pettitte only gave up 19 home runs in 2008, which is a low number for a starting pitcher.

It's worth noting that under no circumstances would I sign Pettitte for more than the 1 year/$10 mil that the Yankees are offering him. Hell, I would probably not even go that high. A deal in the 1 year/$7 million range with lots of incentive bonuses ($4-$6 mil) seems about right. If Pettitte wants more, then let him walk. No harm, no foul.

But the point is that this is an option the Mets need to at least explore. There is no telling how insulted Pettitte could feel by the Yankees offer or how interested he would be in pitching for the Mets in 2009, but he is worth the look. There is always the possibility that Derek Lowe winds up with the Braves and Oliver Perez prices himself into the "Yankee only" stratosphere, so Pettitte should at least be on the radar screen.

The Now Incomplete 2014 Hall of Fame Class

Imagine this:

a warm, humid July day in Cooperstown, NY as legendary pitchers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz enter the hall of fame together. The fantastic trio was the heart and soul of the great Braves teams of the mid nineties that won the 1995 World Series and 11 division titles.

Consider it a pipe dream now. Thanks John Smoltz.

With Greg Maddux retiring this off season and Tom Glavine uncertain if he will pitch in 2009, the Braves trio actually had a legitimate chance to enter the hall of fame together before Smoltz signed with the Red Sox. Ouch, Braves fans.

Even as a Met fan, this would have been cool to see. These three guys defined class and competition and each brought something unique and different to the game. Seeing three longtime teammates enter the hall of fame is something that I doubt has or ever will take place.

The Red Sox Must Love Question Marks

Hmmm...lets see here. What do these three signings have in common?

-Two weeks ago, the Red Sox signed SP Brad Penny to a one year contract. Penny was largely ineffective in 2008 and missed lots of time because of shoulder tendinitis and other ailments. But IF Penny is healthy in 2009, he could give the Red Sox a major boost in the rotation.

-Tonight, the Red Sox reportedly came to terms with local boy OF Rocco Baldelli on a contract. Baldelli has been dealing with a rare mitochondrial disease over the past few seasons, which has prevented him from getting on the field. But, IF Baldelli is healthy, he could provide a boost off the bench for the Red Sox and add depth to an already deep team.

-Also tonight, the Red Sox appear to be close to signing former CY Young award winner John Smoltz to a one year contract. The 41 year old Smoltz missed most of 2008 because of shoulder surgery that threatened to end his tremendous career. But IF Smoltz is healthy in 2009, he could be an invaluable asset to an already strong Red Sox pitching staff in either the rotation or the bullpen.

Folks, that's a lot of ifs. We do not know the final terms, but the Red Sox likely spent between $12-$18 million bucks up front on these question marks.

You have to like these moves because each is a low risk, high reward move that could pay off big time for the Red Sox in the future. At the same time, it's impossible to know exactly what kind of contribution the Sox will get from any of these guys. The Sox need to assume that they will get nothing out of these guys and think of whatever production they get as a bonus.

It's funny to watch the Yankees spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the best free agents while the Red Sox scour the injured to find someone who could potentially help them in 2009.

Gotta love the question marks!

Pirates Fans Rejoice!

The Kevin McClatchy era (error) is officially over for good!

"Former Pirates managing general partner Kevin McClatchy has sold his remaining shares in the team, ending a 13-year relationship that began with the newspaper heir ensuring that the club remained in Pittsburgh." ESPN.com

Under McClathy's watch, the Pirates turned into the laughingstock of the National League. McClatchy refused to spend the money necessary to put a competitive team on the field as the Pirates stumbled to thirteen consecutive losing seasons under McClatchy's watch.

Seriously how can a team compete when it trades away its best players only to sign scrubs like Derek Bell and Joe Randa?

It would be unfair to talk about McClatchy without talking about his crown jewel, PNC Park. There is no doubt that PNC Park is one of the best looking stadiums in baseball and McClatchy deserves credit for that. However, in the seven seasons that PNC Park has been around, the Pirates have produced zero winning seasons. McClatchy deserves blame for that as well.

To sum things up, McClatchy was a horrible owner and had no business running a major league franchise. The Pirates needed a fresh start and McClatchy stepping down, even though it was inevitable, is a moment for Pirates fans to cherish.

Will the Athletics Compete With Jason Giambi?

Yesterday, multiple sources reported that the Athletics were close to signing Jason Giambi to a 1 year deal to hit behind Matt Holliday. Giambi is expected to DH for the Athletics, who are coming off a terrible season in which they finished 11 games under .500.

So will the Athletics be competative in 2009? Absolutely.

While the Athletics struggled to muster up any offense in 2008, their pitching was actually quite good finishing fifth in team ERA (4.01). The Athletics are absolutely loaded with talented, young arms who ooze of potential and ability. If those young arms can deliver continue to progress and deliver a strong season in 2010, then the Athletics could be in a good position to compete.

However, the Athletics success in 2009 in directly related to their offense. The acquisition of Matt Holliday certainly made the Athletics offense deeper and more potent, but the acquisition of Giambi will determine how much the Athletics offense improves.

If Giambi is able to perform at his 2008 level (32 HR 96 RBI, .372 OBP), then teams will not have the ability to pitch around Matt Holliday. If Holliday gets pitches to hit, this lineup could become explosive and dangerous. The Athletics lineup with Giambi, Holliday, and Cust should have a very high OBP and hit lots of home runs.

However, if Giambi reverts back to his old 2007 form (14 HR 40 RBI, .356 OBP), then the Athletics lineup could go from potent to average very quickly.

But the point is this, there is no reason why the Athletics should not compete for a division crown in the AL West. The Mariners and Rangers still suck and the once powerful Angels now appear to be somewhat vulnerable. The Angels have lost Mark Teixeira and Garret Anderson to free agency and do not have a lineup comparable to the top teams in the American League.

Sure the Angels still have a great pitching staff, but it's hard to win games when you only put up two or three runs per game. The Angels offense will not be terrible, but I fear that unless they add another bat, they will be wildly inconsistent.

So mark this one down as another great signing by Billy Beane. This low risk signing will help the Athletics compete in 2009 and will not hinder their future plans at all.

Hopefully Giambi will avoid the 'roids this time around in Oakland.

Where to Now, Bobby Abreu

Talk about running out of options.

With Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell signing with the Rays and Cubs respectively, one has to wonder where Abreu will wind up. Like many free agents, the market for Abreu has not developed and teams appear to be shying away from his high price tag.

Remember, it was just two months ago that Yankees GM Brian Cashman decided not to offer Abreu salary arbitration, which probably would have guaranteed Abreu a $16 million dollar salary in 2009. Now Abreu will be lucky to get $10 million.

So what's next for Abreu? With so few teams looking for corner outfielders and even fewer looking to spend money, Abreu could have a tough time finding a suitor, at his price.

Here are some of Abreu's potential destinations (that make sense):

Angels: The Angels are in dire need of another impact bat to hit in front of Vladimir Guerrero and Abreu would be a good fit. However, GM Tony Reagins has previously stated that the Angels will give their younger players a chance to fill the voids left by Garret Anderson and Mark Teixeira. If Reagins comes to his senses, the Angels could become serious competitors in the American League.

Braves: Right now, the Braves have no defined center fielder or left fielder. Unless they want to go with a combination of Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, and Matt Diaz; it might suit them well to give Abreu a look. He would give them some much needed depth to their lineup and a professional hitter to go along with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann. I'm not certain how the Braves would align their outfield, but how Abreu adjust to center or left has to be a concern.

Dodgers: If the Dodgers ultimately part ways with Manny Ramirez, Abreu could become an attractive option here. Abreu would give the Dodgers a professional hitter to mesh along with their abundance of young hitters. I think the Dodgers would prefer Adam Dunn to Bobby Abreu because of the light tower power that Dunn brings, but Abreu could become a lower cost option.

Mets: If by some long shot the Mets miss out on both Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez, then I could possibly see them making a run at Abreu...if his price comes down significantly. However, the Mets are very high on Daniel Murphy and the Mets need to remain focused on pitching. Abreu would be a luxury for the Mets, not a necessity.

Nationals: If the Nationals are serious about letting Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes compete for the center field spot, then they might actually have room for Abreu. And what a good fit he would be. Abreu would provide some stability and protection for Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson, if he's healthy. If Abreu wants a long term deal for 2010, his best bet might be taking a one year deal with the Nationals and putting up big numbers.

As you can see, it's slim pickings for Abreu. He'll find someplace to play, but I highly doubt that Abreu will come anywhere close to the 3 years/$48 million that he was looking for when free agency began. His price tag should come way down, in the one year range so he could potentially cash in as a free agent in 2010.

It's amazing to me that a guy who hit .296 with 20 HR and 100 RBI last season is struggling so mightily to find a job. Hell, this isn't a washed up Ken Griffey Jr. we're talking about here! But with the economy in such bad shape, someone had to pay the price. And right now, Bobby Abreu is paying a heavy price.

Can Carl Pavano Become Relevant Again?

Back in 2004, the New York Yankees signed Carl Pavano to a 4 year/$40 million dollar contract. The Yankees, who outbid the rival Boston Red Sox for Pavano's services, believed that they had just signed a budding star and potential ace.

Fast forward to 2009 and it is safe to say that Carl Pavano did not exactly work out with the Yankees. Between shoulder injuries, a "buttocks injury", a car crash, and Tommy John Surgery, Pavano's injury with the Yankees can be described as a nightmare. In four years, Carl Pavano went from being the most coveted free agent to laughingstock.

Now comes the interesting part: can Pavano become relevant again and revive his fading career? Maybe.

For starters, signing with the Indians is a good move for Pavano. He will have the opportunity to win a spot in the rotation immediately and be given a chance to perform. The Indians on paper look pretty strong this season, which could help Pavano even more.

And most importantly, Cleveland is not New York. Pavano needed to go someplace where the pressure and expectations were not as outrageous as in New York and Cleveland is a perfect place.

Pavano has been labeled as injury prone throughout his career, but only with the Yankees was his work ethic put into question. If Pavano can put it together in 2009 and have a nice season with the Indians, Pavano could actually make himself a good amount of money in 2010, as funny as it sounds. Pavano is only 33 years old, but how much he has left in his arm and body is anyone's question.

If Carl Pavano makes a Flavor Flave esque comeback and all of a sudden rockets into super stardom, I will be absolutely amazed. But the idea that Pavano cannot make a Bret Michaels esque comeback-a shell of his former self, but still somewhat good- should not be ruled out.

And yes I do watch too much VH1.

Just Move On, Yankees

The New York Times has reported that Andy Pettitte has rejected the Yankees 1 year/$10 million offer. Apparently $10 million is not enough for Pettitte, who is looking for a contract closer to the $16 million he earned in 2008.

Fine. If Pettitte really believes that he is worth $13-$14 million in this market, let him and move on. If the Yankees are willing to spend $10-$15 million on another starting pitcher, then they should go after Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez, both of whom are better pitchers right now than Pettitte. If the Yankees continue to be patient and open up their massive check book, there should be no reason why the Yankees do not compete for either guy.

Andy Pettitte brings the Yankees and their fans some sort of consistency and reliability. Pettitte has been around forever and is a lock to give the Yankees around 200 innings. However, the facts cannot be ignored, Pettitte is rapidly declining and no longer resembles the consistent ace that Yankee fans have grown to love.

If the Yankees want to spend tons of money on a rapidly declining fifth starter, then by all means go for it. The Yankees have more money than they know what to do with and if re-signing Pettitte is that important, than go for it. But if the Yankees want to win in 2009, their best bet is to let Pettitte go and move on.

What Is Derek Lowe Waiting For?

Last week, it was reported that the Mets offered Derek Lowe a 3 year/$36 million contract. While this proposal is certainly respectable, it was far less than Lowe expected and as a result, he did not accept the offer.

My question is: does he really think there is a better offer out there? And if so, where will the money come from?

The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, and Braves all do not appear to be in the running for Lowe's services. Unless someone changes their mind, it appears as though the Mets will be bidding against themselves.

The problem with Lowe is that his performance warrants a large contract, but his age (36) makes teams shy away from giving him the years and dollars that the Yankees gave AJ Burnett. Lowe is much more consistent than Burnett and does not have the extensive injury history of the flame throwing right hander, but it's a near certainty that Lowe will be paid significantly less than Burnett.

So what should Lowe and agent Scott Boras do?

Well, they could accept the Mets offer, which is probably the best one on the table. Earning $12 million a season is nothing to laugh at and pitching in New York will give Lowe the exposure and east coast vibe that he reportedly wants.

Or Lowe could continue to wait the market out, hoping that some team flies in with an incredible offer. However, this move is a risky one. As more time goes by, more teams fill their pitching holes elsewhere and the number of suitors will dwindle.

And finally, Lowe could take a one year pact, which is unheard of amongst Scott Boras's clients. Boras's clients typically max out their earning potential while a one year contract obviously leaves much to be desired for the money hungry Boras. However, this type of deal could appeal to Lowe especially if he believes the market will improve in 2009. A bigger pay day might only be a year away.

But on the other hand, would a 36 year old pitcher really be willing to take a one year contract? I think not.

Either way, I think that the Mets offer is Lowe's best bet. Even if he cannot see it now, his market has failed to develop and $12 million per season might be the best he can do.

I admit that this post is rather selfish: I would love to see Lowe pitch for the Mets in Citi Field next season. But the logical side of me just doesn't see the big contract out there for Lowe right now.

Too bad the Yankees don't need another starter.

The Indians and Ben Sheets?

Back in 2005, the Indians signed SP Kevin Millwood to a 1 year contract after teams shied away from him because of elbow problems. The move paid major dividends for the Indians as Millwood delivered with a 2.86 ERA as he led the young Indians pitching staff. Millwood parlayed his great season with the Indians into a huge contract with the Texas Rangers a year later.

Fast forward to 2008, the Indians have just spent roughly $15 million bucks adding Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa to the team. After a lack luster 2008, the Indians now appear set to seriously compete for a division crown. This team has the potential to be very deep and dangerous.

However, I still believe that the Indians are still another starting pitcher away from being serious competitors. Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Scott Lewis might become good pitchers one day, but who knows what they can bring to the table in 2009? Furthermore, the Indians will likely get nothing out of Jake Westbrook, who is expected to miss the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

Enter Ben Sheets.

The right handed pitcher has the make up of an ace with his heavy fastball and devastating curveball. However, he also has an extensive injury history and concerns about his shoulder and elbow that are sure to drive teams away. The only team that has expressed serious interest up to this point is the pitching deficient Texas Rangers.

Yuck. Why in the world would Sheets want to pitch in Texas, where pitchers careers go to die? That would not be a good move for his career.

The Indians have a wonderful opportunity to make a serious push on Sheets. They can offer Sheets the opportunity to prove to the rest of baseball that he is indeed healthy and that the concerns about his arm are for naught. A big season with the Indians coupled with a potential post season birth could lead Sheets to a big contract in 2010, just like Millwood.

And as the off season drags on, the price tag on Sheets will only go down, especially if the Rangers decide not to make a big push. A one year deal worth under $10 million bucks is certainly not out of the question.

Given the current economic situation, it is highly unlikely that any team will overpay for a pitcher with significant injury history. However, the best move Sheets could make right now would be to take a one year deal with a competitive team that could boost his stature and prove the baseball world wrong.

By only signing a one year contract, the Indians would only take on limited risk in the deal. If Sheets gets hurt, then the Indians would lose several million bucks and move on with the young guys. However, if Sheets performs at an all star level, the Indians could catapult above the White Sox and Twins in the AL Central and make a strong push to compete for the AL Pennant.

I know it would be terribly difficult for the Indians to afford Sheets in 2009. With a payroll already approaching $80 million, I'm sure the Indians owners are not too eager to add another $8-$10 million to that total. But this move is worth the risk because the potential reward could be vast and greater than anything the Indians have experienced since 1954.

2009!

Happy New Year everybody! No matter what team you root for, let's hope that 2009 is better than 2008 (except for the Phillies fans)! For me personally, I'm just hoping that the Mets won't collapse this year, but as Met fans know, nothing comes easy with the Metropolitans.

As for the blog, this year has been quite a success. Since we came to be roughly five months ago, we have both good and bad days as the blog began the upward climb towards respectability, a readership, and quality content. The blog is still somewhat of a work in progress, but I am proud of what this blog has been able to accomplish thus far.

Jorge Says No! on Rob Neyer (Monday Mendozas 12/29)

-Will the Giants be competitive, having signed The Big Unit? According to Jorge Says No!, much depends upon whether Travis Ishikawa and Pablo Sandoval are the real deal. Well, Sandoval's for real. At least as a hitter; it's not clear that he'll find a position anytime soon. As for Ishikawa -- who plays Sandoval's most likely eventual position -- his track record isn't bad, but John Sickels recently rated him as a C+ prospect (and by the way, John's book, as essential as ever, is now available for pre-order.

Jorge Says No! on Washington Post (Nationals Journal 12/12)

-I have no idea who this dude is, but Josh at the jorgesaysno blogspot says Teixeira should sign with the Nats. And that's good enough for me!

So there you have it, in just five short months, we have been featured in two prominent sports websites. Not too shabby! This was obviously a huge thrill for me especially being an avid reader of both ESPN and the Washington Post. There is nothing cooler than reading an entry and seeing your site linked!

As for the Washington Post, even if you guys have no idea who I am, thanks so much for the link. Hopefully you guys will be hearing more from me in the near future.

And finally, I want to take some time to thank all the readers. Without you, Jorge Says No! would not exist. It's still somewhat hard to believe that people would actually stop to read my sometimes random thoughts into the world of baseball. So once again, thank you, and please come back soon and often!

As always, any comments/suggestions are greatly appreciated!

-Jorge Says No!
jorgesaysno@gmail.com