Friday, July 31, 2009

2009 MLB Trade Deadline Odds

There has been a tremendous amount of trading leading up to the trade deadline, but make no mistake about it, there are plenty of big names left. I handicapped some of the major players odds of being traded and let the speculation begin: who will be traded and where?

Roy Halladay (15-1): Simply put, the Jays have not been "wowed" by any offer for Halladay so far and talks seem to have died out. However, both the Red Sox, Rangers, and the Dodgers have the pieces to acquire Halladay, but I'm doubtful they're willing to part with their best prospects. The deal that everyone thought would happen, now appears unlikely.

Victor Martinez (3-1): After trading Cliff Lee to the Phillies, everyone assumed that Martinez would be the next to go. However, as I went over yesterday, there is not much of a market out there for Martinez right now and there are very few teams that are willing to part with their top prospects. However, the Indians should be pretty motivated to move Martinez, who could be an interesting fit in Boston.

Jarrod Washburn (12-1): Even though I think it would make sense for the Mariners to try and move Washburn, the Mariners don't seem motivated to move Washburn at the moment. The acquisition of Jack Wilson and Ian Snell hints that the Mariners are not completely waving the white flag on 2009, but the Mariners chances of making the playoffs right now are pretty slim.

Orlando Cabrera (2-1): He would make a great fit with the Twins, who have lobbied for the front office to pick him up. Cabrera is a free agent at the end of the season and might be a type A free agent, which could give the A's some incentive to keep him. However, would the Athletics seriously think about offering him arbitration? I doubt it.

Nick Johnson (8-1): The market for Johnson has never developed like many thought it would. However, Johnson is a productive player and a free agent at the end of the season while the Nationals need all the young pieces they can get. It makes sense for the Nationals to deal Johnson.

Scott Rolen (20-1): Too much money owed and no perfect match in sight.

Adrian Gonzalez (25-1): Unless the Red Sox decide to go all in to get him, I don't see a fit for Gonzalez right now. His salary and power make him a very valuable asset for the Padres. It wouldn't surprise me to see him traded in the offseason.

Matt Capps (8-1): Only because the Pirates have traded away almost all of their commodities already...why not trade one more?

Heath Bell (6-1): Considering that the Padres are going nowhere, it would make sense for them to see what they can get for their all-star closer. The asking price on Bell will be high, but I could see a team like the Marlins or Rays making a move to pick up Bell. Stay tuned on this one.

Others who could be on the move
: Chad Qualls, Joe Beimel, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Marco Scutaro

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