Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Hypothetically Speaking: The Adrian Gonzalez Contract Extension

No one really seems to think that Adrian Gonzalez will remain with the Padres in the long term. Given the Padres financial limitations, the odds of the Padres signing Gonzalez to a contract extension seem to be slim to none.

But I'm not ready to give up just yet. Two things need to happen for the Padres and Gonzalez to have any chance of a deal:

1. Gonzalez wants to stay in San Diego and is willing to take a hometown discount
2. The Padres' payroll will increase from around $40 million in 2010 to $70-$80 million by 2012 or 2013.

If those two things don't occur, then there is virtually no chance of a deal happening.

But let's stay positive. What would it take for the Padres to keep Adrian Gonzalez long term? Let's take a look at what each side would need to make Gonzalez a Padre for the foreseeable future.


1. Buyout at least two years of Gonzalez's free agency
2. Salary structure that fits the Padres' potentially growing payroll in the coming years

The Adrian Gonzalez Camp

1. Increase salary in each 2010 and 2011

(Note: In my opinion, the Padres' best chance to extend Gonzalez is this offseason because they can offer him a salary boost in each of the next two seasons. That is something that could appeal strongly to Gonzalez, depending on how much he wants to stay in San Diego)

2. Yearly salaries that demonstrate how much the Padres value his performance

3. Contract that allows him to become a free agent again in the near future

So how about this deal for Gonzalez and the Padres?

(5 years/$70 million)

Here is the contractual breakdown:

2010: $9 million
2011: $12 million
2012: $15 million
2013: $16 million
2014: $18 million

Why it works for the Padres:

1. keep Gonzalez long term

2. Gonzalez's salary should not account for more than 20-25% of the team's total payroll at any point (as long as Moorad is willing to increase payroll to $70-$80 million in the coming years)

Why it works for Gonzalez:

1. He'd earn almost $11 million dollars in 2010 and 2011, just by agreeing to a new contract (scheduled to earn $10.25 million over the next two years, but he would earn $21 million in 2010 and 2011 with this extension)

2. Demonstrates how strongly the Padres value his abilities

3. Gonzalez would become a free agent when he is just 32 years old. He could be in line for another massive contract

4. He would be one of the highest paid first baseman in 2012-2014

Again, Gonzalez could probably do much better on the free agent market in 2011 simply by maximizing his value and allowing the big market clubs to big up his services, but this offer meets the needs of both sides.

Is this contract realistic? Should the Padres approach Gonzalez about an extension?


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AvengingJM said...

Good post.

I was always of the opinion that Adrian, as a guy who idolized Tony Gwynn, would take the SD discount and stay home. However my source says that AG has actually been one of the most vocal Padres in the Petco Era regarding the park's unfriendly hitting dimensions (and that's saying a lot considering how much Nevin and Klesko bitched).If he were to go to a park that played neutral he could threaten 50 HRs each year.

I like your plan and it's feasible considering that Moorad seems committed to boosting the payroll to $70-$80 million by 2011 or 2012. But I think it's looking more like he'll be dealt especially with Hoyer aboard via the RED Sox... reasonable trade partners.

AvengingJM said...

...source also says that staying at home isn't a huge priority. We'll see.

Unknown said...

Gonzalez should fire his agent (Mitchell Boggs). Why is he signed to such a team-friendly contract in the first place? He should be making $10M+ this year and next year both. It's Boras time.