Friday, October 2, 2009

The Raul Ibanez Effect?

Last offseason, the Phillies surprised many baseball people by signing Raul Ibanez to a three year contract worth $31.5 million dollars. The signing itself was not surprising (unless you were a huge fan of Pat Burrell), but the amount of years the Phillies were willing to give the 36 year old Ibanez a three year contract.

So far, the results have been great. The Phillies are back in the playoffs for the third straight season and Ibanez, at age 37, has put up some of the best numbers of his career (.274, 34 HR, 93 RBI).

As we look forward towards the 2009 offseason, I can't help but wonder if the Ibanez contract will become the standard for aging, but still productive hitters. Instead of looking for one or two years when the player is clearly past his prime, will agents start looking to get 3 year deals like the one Ibanez got?

This discussion is interesting because there are a number of hitters, who will be free agents this offseason that fit the "aging, but still productive mold" like Ibanez: Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu.

And while all those guys are still productive hitters and pretty bad defensive players (like Ibanez), I can only see one of those guys nabbing a three year deal. And that would be Bobby Abreu. No it's not just because he's been putting up stellar numbers this season, but it's because he and Ibanez share a similar quality that I know teams value (and sometimes overvalue): consistency.

Entering last offseason, Raul Ibanez had played in at least 149 games in every season dating back to 2005 and was showing no signs of breaking down anytime soon. Like Ibanez, Abreu is remarkably consistent. Bobby Abreu has not played in less than 150 games in ANY SEASON SINCE 1998. That level of consistency is amazing.

And I fully expect Abreu to be paid handsomely this summer. Yes, he's 35 years old and will be 36 in March. But is a three year deal out of the question? Absolutely not.


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Bill said...

I thought at the time that the Ibanez signing was one of the worst of the offseason. And while Bradley has probably surpassed it given the results, my feelings still haven't changed. After his freakishly hot start, he's gone on to do about what we thought he'd do (or worse), and the fact remains that in 2011, they'll be paying an almost-40 year old lots of money to stand still in the outfield and provide average (or worse) offense. If contracts like that become a trend, I'm really hoping the Indians, Tigers, White Sox and Royals (to the extent that the Royals haven't already) jump in with both feet. :)

Baseball In-Depth said...

In general it's not a good idea, and I think you really have to look at not only their age, but how many games they've played in. Ibanez has logged about 1500 games, while Damon is over 2100.

While Abreu is probably have his numbers decline slightly over the next few years, you know what you're getting with him and he stays healthy. He could easily be a better investment than a younger player coming off of one or two good years.

Jorge Says No! said...

I think the Phillies are going to be regretting the Ibanez deal in 2011 much more than the team who signs Abreu this offseason would in 2012...

With that said, I'd love to have either one on the Mets!